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(The Classical)   One year after ESPN proudly announced the ultimate quarterback rating statistic, network ditches Total QBR after discovering Tim Tebow isn't ranked #1 every week   (theclassical.org ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Total QBR, Tim Tebow, QBR, ESPN, passer rating, Football Outsiders, Jon Gruden, statistical model  
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2006 clicks; posted to Sports » on 23 Oct 2012 at 11:36 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



48 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2012-10-23 10:17:14 AM  
I remember seeing them give one of their explanations of that. Informercials seemed more believable. Didn't help matters that practically every stathead has at some point in his life or her life made up a new QB ratings system. Really impressive ESPN, you equalled my notebook in 8th grade. With more production values -- mayybe.
 
2012-10-23 11:42:39 AM  
So now they've abandoned it, will they release the formula so that we may laugh heartily?
 
2012-10-23 11:59:31 AM  

Generation_D: With more production values -- mayybe.


i like when they put a guy in front of a massive HDTV and he moves the players / teams / salary cap numbers / draft picks around. because watching a guy play with a HDTV on your HDTV is so compelling.
 
2012-10-23 12:05:30 PM  
I don't watch pre- game, half time or post game shows. I don't care about the stats, I just watch the game. The list of NFL stats must be hundreds of pages long.
 
2012-10-23 12:06:54 PM  
I was all in favor of a better, simpler QB rating system. Then I saw the mess ESPN came up with. The whole point of that thing seemed to be to encourage dependency on sages and swamis at ESPN who are better qualified that plebs to decide which QBs are truly elite. If you have to calculate differential equations, your rating system is too complicated.
 
2012-10-23 12:07:30 PM  

wiseolddude: I don't watch pre- game, half time or post game shows. I don't care about the stats, I just watch the game. The list of NFL stats must be hundreds of pages long.


same here. rare is the pregame show i'll watch.

the only highlights i see are the stuff on SNF and even then, I only DVR that about half the time. i don't need boomer esiasion, collinsworth, howeie long, etc., to tell me what i already know about so and so's defense or so and so's sick grandma or whatever. that stuff bores me.
 
2012-10-23 12:28:24 PM  
Football is a team game, baseball is 95% one on one. Being able to compare individuals on a one to one basis is much easier in a one on one game as the variables just stack up exponentially when you are trying to compare people in team sports. Add to that the rule complexity and pace of rule change in the NFL and comparing players from different eras gets to the point of nonsensical.

I think we all just need to take a deep breath, acknowledge that Aaron Rodgers is the greatest QB ever to play professionally, and move on. We will all be better for it.
 
2012-10-23 12:34:17 PM  
Stats don't work when one of the inputs is something you can wiggle to get the results you want. How they managed to pay off the FO folks to back that idea I'll never know
 
2012-10-23 12:37:24 PM  

LucklessWonder: So now they've abandoned it, will they release the formula so that we may laugh heartily?


Isn't that the only problem with it? If I don't know the formula how am I able to criticize it or accept it? I actually think it probably has a lot of good in it but the wrong audience (ESPN fans) and the wrong method (closed proprietary formula)
 
2012-10-23 12:39:06 PM  
football is a sport for smart players and smart fans and smart broadcasters...right?
 
2012-10-23 12:42:02 PM  

Lost Thought 00: Stats don't work when one of the inputs is something you can wiggle to get the results you want. How they managed to pay off the FO folks to back that idea I'll never know


Q: What's the deal with all the mentions of Brown University (or Sean Morey and Zak DeOssie)?
A: The initial founders of Football Outsiders, for the most part, were brothers at Zeta Delta Xi at Brown University (creator Aaron Schatz, designer Benjy Rose, cartoonist Jason Beattie, and original Scramble for the Ball writers Ian Dembsky and Al Bogdan). ***snip***
 
2012-10-23 01:06:05 PM  
Nobody is mentioning the other huge problem with QBR: it belongs to ESPN, so no other network is ever going to talk about it. Ever. It also doesn't help that QBR seems to be carefully designed so that only ESPN has the resources (presumably, an army of low-paid interns) to calculate it.

So it doesn't matter how much better QBR is: ESPN is not going to get the other networks to adopt it, thereby implicitly (or even explicitly) acknowledging ESPN as the intellectual center of NFL analysis. In fact, the other networks have a positive incentive to rubbish it in order to paint ESPN as out of touch (much as Sports Illustrated did when QBR was first unveiled). And that means that passer rating will remain the more useful rating as it allows you to compare a stat from Fox with a stat from NBC.

If ESPN had really been serious about creating a better rating system, rather than simply trying to crown itself the King of QB Stats, it would have sat down with the other networks and the NFL and proposed that they jointly create, own and promote a new stat.
 
2012-10-23 01:32:53 PM  
Is anyone else a little concerned about the concept of a proprietary math formula?
 
2012-10-23 01:35:31 PM  

wiseolddude: I don't watch pre- game, half time or post game shows. I don't care about the stats, I just watch the game. The list of NFL stats must be hundreds of pages long.


You're doing it right. I can't stand watching a bunch of old coaches or washed-up players spend most of the week arguing about what team is going to win. Then spend the rest of the week arguing why they were wrong.
 
2012-10-23 01:37:49 PM  

czetie: Nobody is mentioning the other huge problem with QBR: it belongs to ESPN, so no other network is ever going to talk about it. Ever. It also doesn't help that QBR seems to be carefully designed so that only ESPN has the resources (presumably, an army of low-paid interns) to calculate it.

So it doesn't matter how much better QBR is: ESPN is not going to get the other networks to adopt it, thereby implicitly (or even explicitly) acknowledging ESPN as the intellectual center of NFL analysis. In fact, the other networks have a positive incentive to rubbish it in order to paint ESPN as out of touch (much as Sports Illustrated did when QBR was first unveiled). And that means that passer rating will remain the more useful rating as it allows you to compare a stat from Fox with a stat from NBC.

If ESPN had really been serious about creating a better rating system, rather than simply trying to crown itself the King of QB Stats, it would have sat down with the other networks and the NFL and proposed that they jointly create, own and promote a new stat.


It's been a real pleasure to listen to NFL Network the way I listen to MLB Network. Like night and day in comparison to ESPN.
 
2012-10-23 01:41:26 PM  
But are they going to bring back the "Who's Now" tournament?! I need to know!!1!
 
2012-10-23 01:43:54 PM  
I knew something was fishy when they rated Mike Trout as a better quarterback than Tom Brady.
 
2012-10-23 01:51:21 PM  

Rwa2play: It's been a real pleasure to listen to NFL Network the way I listen to MLB Network. Like night and day in comparison to ESPN


Michael Irvin makes the morning show unwatchable, and Chris Rose makes the night show unwatchable. Warren Sapp isn't helping, either. NFL network needs to get rid of the douches and just bring back the content, which is what real fans want.
 
2012-10-23 01:55:10 PM  

ChrisDe: wiseolddude: I don't watch pre- game, half time or post game shows. I don't care about the stats, I just watch the game. The list of NFL stats must be hundreds of pages long.

You're doing it right. I can't stand watching a bunch of old coaches or washed-up players spend most of the week arguing about what team is going to win. Then spend the rest of the week arguing why they were wrong.


ESPN is, to borrow a phrase, a mountain of opinion built on a molehill of facts. At its best it is unsubstantiated disagreements between talking heads, at its worst it is manufactured disagreements. If I dropped ESPN from my cable sub tomorrow, the only thing I would miss to any degree would be the game on Monday nights, and I'd get over that.
 
2012-10-23 02:10:55 PM  
That's funny, I just heard Trent Dilfer say on the radio yesterday that QBR is the single most accurate statistic for predicting team success in the NFL. The only reason we plebs hate it is because it's always right.
 
2012-10-23 02:11:41 PM  
As a quick & dirty, easy to figure QB rating... "yards per pass play" is all right by me.
 
2012-10-23 02:21:54 PM  
If FARK were to come up with its own QB rating system, what would it include?

/Besides the Delhomme.
 
2012-10-23 02:28:23 PM  

GreatGlavinsGhost: If FARK were to come up with its own QB rating system, what would it include?

/Besides the Delhomme.


The Romp factor for bad 4th quarter decisions.
 
2012-10-23 02:31:32 PM  

GreatGlavinsGhost: If FARK were to come up with its own QB rating system, what would it include?

/Besides the Delhomme.


Courage
Intangibles
Cam factor
Ponies
 
2012-10-23 02:38:41 PM  

GreatGlavinsGhost: If FARK were to come up with its own QB rating system, what would it include?

/Besides the Delhomme.


Thank goodness you asked that in this thread and not one that people will actually read and/or post in, cuz it would get ugly quick.

czetie: ChrisDe: wiseolddude: ***snip***

ESPN is, to borrow a phrase, a mountain of opinion built on a molehill of facts. At its best it is unsubstantiated disagreements between talking heads, at its worst it is manufactured disagreements. If I dropped ESPN from my cable sub tomorrow, the only thing I would miss to any degree would be the game on Monday nights, and I'd get over that.


Skip Bayless thinks you're full of shiat.
 
2012-10-23 02:52:15 PM  
Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.
 
2012-10-23 03:19:19 PM  

Why Would I Read the Article: Rwa2play: It's been a real pleasure to listen to NFL Network the way I listen to MLB Network. Like night and day in comparison to ESPN

Michael Irvin makes the morning show unwatchable, and Chris Rose makes the night show unwatchable. Warren Sapp isn't helping, either. NFL network needs to get rid of the douches and just bring back the content, which is what real fans want.


So much this. Irvin cant say 5 words without fumbling them around worse than Leon Lett in the snow. And him and Deion cant shut the fark up for 5 secs while someone tries to do actual analysis. Ive noticed the nighttime highlites have had a different non athlete anchor nearly every week this season. I miss eisen and mooch.
 
2012-10-23 03:28:21 PM  

caleb4god: Why Would I Read the Article: Rwa2play: It's been a real pleasure to listen to NFL Network the way I listen to MLB Network. Like night and day in comparison to ESPN

Michael Irvin makes the morning show unwatchable, and Chris Rose makes the night show unwatchable. Warren Sapp isn't helping, either. NFL network needs to get rid of the douches and just bring back the content, which is what real fans want.

So much this. Irvin cant say 5 words without fumbling them around worse than Leon Lett in the snow. And him and Deion cant shut the fark up for 5 secs while someone tries to do actual analysis. Ive noticed the nighttime highlites have had a different non athlete anchor nearly every week this season. I miss eisen and mooch.


What does NFL Network bring to the table on a daily basis? I'm asking because I'm having new cable installed today that comes with it. Outside of the Thursday games and Rich Eisen, I don't know much about their programming. I'm hoping the actual game and team analysis that ESPN doesn't bring to the table.
 
2012-10-23 03:30:11 PM  

coolio mack: What does NFL Network bring to the table on a daily basis? I'm asking because I'm having new cable installed today that comes with it. Outside of the Thursday games and Rich Eisen, I don't know much about their programming. I'm hoping the actual game and team analysis that ESPN doesn't bring to the table.



I personally don't think its much better than ESPN.  But if you're a football nut, it is 24/7 NFL... which means things like classic game replays, top 10 shows, all that.  The top 10 shows can be mildly interesting.
 
2012-10-23 03:39:25 PM  

downstairs: coolio mack: What does NFL Network bring to the table on a daily basis? I'm asking because I'm having new cable installed today that comes with it. Outside of the Thursday games and Rich Eisen, I don't know much about their programming. I'm hoping the actual game and team analysis that ESPN doesn't bring to the table.


I personally don't think its much better than ESPN.  But if you're a football nut, it is 24/7 NFL... which means things like classic game replays, top 10 shows, all that.  The top 10 shows can be mildly interesting.


Eh, guess I'll just be using it mostly for Thursday night football. I didn't have to pay anything extra for it, but with all the hype I've heard the last few years I was hoping it'd be something to tune in to every day. I don't even think I can handle a show with Michael Irvin trying to analyze anything.

Thanks for the response.
 
2012-10-23 03:49:02 PM  

downstairs: coolio mack: What does NFL Network bring to the table on a daily basis? I'm asking because I'm having new cable installed today that comes with it. Outside of the Thursday games and Rich Eisen, I don't know much about their programming. I'm hoping the actual game and team analysis that ESPN doesn't bring to the table.


I personally don't think its much better than ESPN.  But if you're a football nut, it is 24/7 NFL... which means things like classic game replays, top 10 shows, all that.  The top 10 shows can be mildly interesting.


Playbook is a good preview show similar to NFL matchup but with 4x the content.
 
2012-10-23 03:49:57 PM  
I hate watching ESPN Football games because of asshats like Gruden, who can't shut the fark up, and never knows the farking team that's playing. Have some damn respect for your farking job you farkwit, learn the teams.

/if you took a shot for every stupid thing Gruden says during a broadcast, you'd be dead by the end of the 1st Quarter
 
2012-10-23 03:52:56 PM  

DeathByGeekSquad: I hate watching ESPN Football games because of asshats like Gruden, who can't shut the fark up, and never knows the farking team that's playing. Have some damn respect for your farking job you farkwit, learn the teams.

/if you took a shot for every stupid thing Gruden says during a broadcast, you'd be dead by the end of the 1st Quarter


This guy know what he's talking about.
 
2012-10-23 04:21:13 PM  

roc6783: DeathByGeekSquad: I hate watching ESPN Football games because of asshats like Gruden, who can't shut the fark up, and never knows the farking team that's playing. Have some damn respect for your farking job you farkwit, learn the teams.

/if you took a shot for every stupid thing Gruden says during a broadcast, you'd be dead by the end of the 1st Quarter

This guy know what he's talking about.


i love this guy, because he knows how to play football in THE NATIONAL football league.

/this guy
//this guy right here
 
2012-10-23 04:28:41 PM  

neuroflare: Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.


The article specifically mentioned that they still use it for the website, but that it hasn't been mentioned at all on MNF or on Sportscenter, whereas last season, they seemed to have a ten minute segment every day dedicated to breaking it down and figuring out how in the hell Tebow could end up #1 after going 4-20 for 36 yards or something like that.
 
2012-10-23 04:59:55 PM  

rugman11: neuroflare: Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.

The article specifically mentioned that they still use it for the website, but that it hasn't been mentioned at all on MNF or on Sportscenter, whereas last season, they seemed to have a ten minute segment every day dedicated to breaking it down and figuring out how in the hell Tebow could end up #1 after going 4-20 for 36 yards or something like that.


I see, yeah I didn't rtfa
 
2012-10-23 05:03:28 PM  

farbekrieg: roc6783: DeathByGeekSquad: I hate watching ESPN Football games because of asshats like Gruden, who can't shut the fark up, and never knows the farking team that's playing. Have some damn respect for your farking job you farkwit, learn the teams.

/if you took a shot for every stupid thing Gruden says during a broadcast, you'd be dead by the end of the 1st Quarter

This guy know what he's talking about.

i love this guy, because he knows how to play football in THE NATIONAL football league.

/this guy
//this guy right here


This guy, he's a gunslinger. He's a sheriff on the field, this guy.

www.waitingfornextyear.com
 
2012-10-23 05:16:29 PM  

neuroflare: Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.


The "clutch index" is where they get in trouble. There's really no such thing as "clutch".
 
2012-10-23 05:30:19 PM  

forgotmydamnusername: neuroflare: Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.

The "clutch index" is where they get in trouble. There's really no such thing as "clutch".



ESPECIALLY for a QB.  Clutch just means you played like crap for 4 3/4 quarters and now have to battle with a heroic last minutes drive.
 
2012-10-23 06:29:48 PM  
ESPN sucks and their "personalities" are all moronic braying jackasses
 
2012-10-23 07:28:22 PM  

JasonThomasX: ESPN sucks and their "personalities" are all moronic braying jackasses


At least the Fantasy Focus podcast has amusing braying jackasses...
 
2012-10-23 07:38:49 PM  

downstairs: forgotmydamnusername: neuroflare: Abandoned? Is that why they still track it on their website? Or why some analysts use it as another metric to measure QBs by? It's not a be all end all stat, it's another filter to view QB performance by that takes into account that receivers suck at times among other things. The whole modified by a clutch index is a little weird, but it's not terrible. It's still silly Tebow was highest ranked at one point though.

The "clutch index" is where they get in trouble. There's really no such thing as "clutch".


ESPECIALLY for a QB.  Clutch just means you played like crap for 4 3/4 quarters and now have to battle with a heroic last minutes drive.


It's as much as anything a product of a willingness to take risks, I suppose. Sometimes those risks pay off. Sometimes you throw 5 picks. It's also very dependent upon being surrounded with enough good players to have a hope in hell of pulling it off, and a coaching staff that doesn't make it impossible. The "clutch index" is really the "dumb luck index". It can't be called a useful measurement of performance. It's merely a way for some douche at ESPN to skew the results.
 
2012-10-23 08:07:41 PM  
The Gruden comments are comedy gold.
 
2012-10-23 09:30:33 PM  
I've actually studied this question, and done a few academic papers about this sort of thing. I know Oliver (a little), Shatz, and Burke, and they are very, very smart guys. One of them contributed a chapter to a book I edited.

I've come to the conclusion that the NFL's passer rating is a pretty decent measure because of its simplicity. You're not going to do better by making it more complicated.

/srsly
 
2012-10-23 11:45:12 PM  

bronyaur1: I've actually studied this question, and done a few academic papers about this sort of thing. I know Oliver (a little), Shatz, and Burke, and they are very, very smart guys. One of them contributed a chapter to a book I edited.

I've come to the conclusion that the NFL's passer rating is a pretty decent measure because of its simplicity. You're not going to do better by making it more complicated.

/srsly


Schatz said on Simmons' podcast that he would have done something closer to QBR if he had the money for the man-power to examine every single play by the QBs in every game.
 
2012-10-23 11:47:47 PM  

neuroflare: Schatz said on Simmons' podcast that he would have done something closer to QBR if he had the money for the man-power to examine every single play by the QBs in every game.


I just realized I'm white-knighting QBR. I'll stop.

I do think passer rating is a much easier stat for people to interpret as it has been the standard for a long time.
 
2012-10-24 06:12:08 AM  
QB rating is flawed. I think it's overreliant upon yards per attempt (kind-of like how "total offense" = yards).

ESPN's abortion of a rating's system was for just that: ratings. Specifically, as mentioned, Tebow ratings.
 
2012-10-24 08:54:24 AM  
The "clutch" measurement is moronic because it ranks a QB with a ton of 4th quarter comebacks above one who is ahead 35 points going into every 4th quarter. They call it garbage time for a reason.
 
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