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(Some Guy)   Gartner's 2009 cellphone industry projection analysis was spot-on. JUST KIDDING.. "Monkeys on typewriters could have banged out more astute predictions on the mobile industry three years out, even if they were being waterboarded with pure LSD"   (roughlydrafted.com) divider line 28
    More: Obvious, Gartner, LSD, cell phones, infinite monkey theorem, apples, Windows Mobile, installed base, predictions  
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3027 clicks; posted to Geek » on 22 Oct 2012 at 11:07 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-22 11:13:04 AM  
I also didn't predict that the entire Android platform would limp along in fail mode (that includes LG, HTC, Sony, even Google's own Motorola) apart from one company (Samsung) that based its success entirely upon copying Apple, leveraging its intimate supplier relationship with Apple to produce the most blatantly obvious rip-off of another company's technology product since Microsoft's Windows.

That's because, at the time, it wasn't public knowledge that Samsung was plotting to spend three months slavishly copying the iPhone to end its long losing streak in smartphones. We only know that now because the company detailed what it did in internal documents that ended up being exposed to the public by the legal system in a patent hearing.

This would be more commonly known if the tech media was as interested in reporting what really happened in the Samsung-Apple trial rather than helping Samsung and Google to propagate a web of lies that attempted to portray the case as being largely about Apple patenting round corners and rectangles. Or hinging upon a member of the jury having prior knowledge of the patent system (as if Samsung wasn't also suing Apple over patents in the same case).


Want a great stock tip? Buy Pfizer. This guy alone is going to need to much Preparation H to soothe his butthurt that the stock will jump 15% overnight.
 
2012-10-22 11:18:39 AM  
was that written by apple PR? because it sure reads like it.
 
2012-10-22 11:20:28 AM  
I volunteer for the LSD waterboarding.
 
2012-10-22 11:21:55 AM  
Rampant butthurt aside, Microsoft's Statistical Division (aka Gartner) are never right... even about stuff their main sponsor (Microsoft) pay them to produce.

It's been a running joke since the 90's... whatever Gartner say, do the opposite.

Although you got to give Apple some credit, that percentage of the market on so few handset models... that's pretty impressive; even Nokia couldn't pull that off at the height of it's power.
 
2012-10-22 11:23:48 AM  
I thought this going to be slightly biased before reading it. I was slightly off in that assumption.
 
2012-10-22 11:25:35 AM  
Waterboarding monkeys into pure LSD, then asking them for their three year mobile phone technology predictions?

For some reason, I'm okay with this.
 
2012-10-22 11:25:45 AM  
...apart from one company (Samsung) that based its success entirely upon copying Apple...

Funny, I have an iPhone 4 and an S3 and they appear to be nothing alike beyond "smartphone."
 
2012-10-22 11:29:25 AM  
Well they're right that Android is #1, and that Microsoft and RIM are tied.

Aside from the iPhone blunder, it's not that far off the mark.
 
2012-10-22 11:33:47 AM  

Vaneshi: Rampant butthurt aside, Microsoft's Statistical Division (aka Gartner) are never right... even about stuff their main sponsor (Microsoft) pay them to produce.

It's been a running joke since the 90's... whatever Gartner say, do the opposite.


In my last company - I was called "unprofessional" by some VP because I stated in a response to him that I don't bother with gartner reports reports before making technology decisions. The simple fact is that most managers are utterly brain dead when it comes to making tech decisions and gartner is their crutch. This same VP also stated since [another company in a field completely unrelated to our business] is doing it then it must be a fine product.

/gartner does remain an input into the planing process - its one with the smallest weight in the final score
//saw RIMs free fall three years ago - why its taken other companies until now to start dumping them is beyond me
///in before the extreme irrational Apple hate - get over it
 
2012-10-22 11:57:14 AM  
Gartner has been a joke for 30 years. A joke, but loved by management and MBA assholes who use Gartner to justify the most bogus of bogus claims, with phony pseudo-scientific mumbo jumbo probabilities assigned to their forecasts.
 
2012-10-22 12:40:56 PM  

RoyBatty: Gartner has been a joke for 30 years. A joke, but loved by management and MBA assholes who use Gartner to justify the most bogus of bogus claims, with phony pseudo-scientific mumbo jumbo probabilities assigned to their forecasts.


You sound bitter.
 
2012-10-22 12:57:14 PM  
I love Gartner. It's the biggest pack of grifters on the planet. They don't sell analysis, they sell managerial cowardice balm. When your CTO can't make a decision, he can always fall back on "Gartner says...." and then it's totally not his fault.

I would get in trouble all the time for saying "If I have to bring in a consultant to tell me what to do, I'm not qualified for my job."
 
2012-10-22 12:57:44 PM  

mcreadyblue: RoyBatty: Gartner has been a joke for 30 years. A joke, but loved by management and MBA assholes who use Gartner to justify the most bogus of bogus claims, with phony pseudo-scientific mumbo jumbo probabilities assigned to their forecasts.

You sound bitter.


That's because he's discovered that 'brain drain' is actually what occurs as you move up the corporate ladder.

I had the same experience when putting together a software review "Did you check with Gartner?" "Why?" I said, "They don't know what we need."
I had to add it anyways.
 
2012-10-22 01:12:14 PM  

palladiate: Funny, I have an iPhone 4 and an S3 and they appear to be nothing alike beyond "smartphone."


Ditto. iPhone4 for work, S3 is mine. I haven't kept up with the hoopla because, well, I don't care, but I'm not seeing how one is a massive rip off of the other.
 
2012-10-22 01:40:29 PM  
FTFA:Back in October 2009, I didn't lay out my own prediction stating that in three years, Apple would lead the mobile market globally in revenue, profits and market share across the broadest selection of devices.

That would have made me sound like a doe-eyed fanbot,


So let me get this straight. You have the nerve to call out someone for making a prediction based on available information at the time as being wrong, You then REFUSE to provide your own prediction because it would make you look like a fanboi... and then three years later when absolutely NOBODY BUT YOU CARES you bring it back up again to say OH LOOK AT ME HOW SMART I AM AS A FANBOI..

For all you know Windows phone could have been #1 and everything else fall into the cracks. You have no idea what or how the environments would change over time. So unless your willing to pull your dink out of your own mouth and make YOUR prediction 3 years ago like you should have, Im gunna say stop sucking it buddy, You didnt call anything because YOU DIDNT MAKE A PREDICTION.
 
2012-10-22 02:26:13 PM  
I think we're at a plateau on the smartphones so I can make real easy predictions for 2015: US sales will slow to replacement rates plus 2 percent more users each month. Sales in Brazil will exceed their GDP growth, China will bring a new lithium refinery online to harvest deposits in Tibet and recycling of batteries. Europe will see a major telecom merger or partnership allowing continent wide coverage under single rate plans but subscription rates will fall as more households become single cell subscribers. Throughout Africa and the middle east stepped up government control will result in decreased demand for approved service and the deployment of a black market network as was seen in Mexico by the cartels. US/European fondleslab sales will never compromise a large amount of network demands because they'll mostly be on wifi.

Now, if I can just hang onto this until 2016.
 
2012-10-22 02:36:12 PM  

gingerjet: ///in before the extreme irrational Apple hate - get over it


What about the entirely rational Apple hate?
 
rpl
2012-10-22 02:51:52 PM  
Isn't the point of waterboarding to create the sensation of drowning without an actual liquid intake?
 
2012-10-22 03:41:09 PM  
ironically, "Waterboarded LSD Monkey's" is the name of my new band...

/you've never heard of them
 
2012-10-22 04:13:31 PM  

RoyBatty: Gartner has been a joke for 30 years. A joke, but loved by management and MBA assholes who use Gartner to justify the most bogus of bogus claims, with phony pseudo-scientific mumbo jumbo probabilities assigned to their forecasts.


Uh oh, someone failed out of MBA school or lost their job to a younger MBA postgrad.
 
2012-10-22 04:15:18 PM  
I couldn't understand the author. Someone tell him to remove Apple's dick from his mouth before trying to talk.
 
2012-10-22 04:36:51 PM  

Bullseyed: RoyBatty: Gartner has been a joke for 30 years. A joke, but loved by management and MBA assholes who use Gartner to justify the most bogus of bogus claims, with phony pseudo-scientific mumbo jumbo probabilities assigned to their forecasts.

Uh oh, someone failed out of MBA school or lost their job to a younger MBA postgrad.


MBA, Berkeley actually.

Also a couple of other degrees.
 
2012-10-22 05:40:15 PM  

Rent Party: I love Gartner. It's the biggest pack of grifters on the planet. They don't sell analysis, they sell managerial cowardice balm. When your CTO can't make a decision, he can always fall back on "Gartner says...." and then it's totally not his fault.


Which for a CTO in a large organisation is an entirely rational thing to do. The saying "no-one ever got fired for buying IBM" says everything about corporate IT. If corporate IT was rational, it would have a flipside: "the guy who bought Amdahl got a couple of hookers sent to his office every Friday to thank him for saving the company a load of money". In large companies, no-one gets a damn thing for taking a risk, except the sack. It's why big companies use enterprise dogshiat like Remedy. You buy Remedy, you don't get fired. Even if the supplier and the support is garbage, they will get blamed, because you took the sensible decision.
 
2012-10-22 08:44:36 PM  

blackminded: palladiate: Funny, I have an iPhone 4 and an S3 and they appear to be nothing alike beyond "smartphone."

Ditto. iPhone4 for work, S3 is mine. I haven't kept up with the hoopla because, well, I don't care, but I'm not seeing how one is a massive rip off of the other.


Rounded corners... it's sooo obvious
 
2012-10-23 01:51:42 AM  
I predict windows 8 will NOT get adopted in the mainstream.

Seriously, Fark you microsoft and your tablet OS.
 
2012-10-23 01:59:54 AM  
This article is factually wrong and living proof why tech journalists who insist on being Apple spokesmen should be plugged with something high ordinance to the googlies. US tech journalists are universally pretty crap going incredibly soft on the industry, but this "must praise Apple" shiat is one of the reasons why Apple is popular. People look to the tech reports and see drooling loons like this guy spout bollocks instead of facts and think -- hey I must buy this turd with an apple logo.
How can anyone who has seen any figures say that Apple is beating Android?. How can anyone call themselves a tech hack and write this piece of shiat. They are lowering the standards of the world and need impaling.
 
2012-10-23 06:03:40 AM  

Vaneshi: Rampant butthurt aside, Microsoft's Statistical Division (aka Gartner) are never right... even about stuff their main sponsor (Microsoft) pay them to produce.

It's been a running joke since the 90's... whatever Gartner say, do the opposite.


Oh so this.

My company hired Gartner to do a survey of our IT department which resulted, for a time, in us
out-sourcing our helpdesk functions. Big mistake: partially because we use specialized software for
our main productivity applications (but mostly because the outsourcing company wasn't very skilled),
they were passing approximately 60% of the calls they fielded back to our in-house support team,
rather than closing the 80% they promised, and consistently flubbing the few that they actually tried
to solve.

That lasted for 18 months, during which time we showed that if you staff your IT department with
people who knew what they were doing you would get a lot more bang for your buck, and we are back
to having all such functions back in-house where they belong.

The moral of the story? Gartner's judgement on the colour of the sky is bound to be completely
wrong, yet they still make millions of dollars from people who just can't be bothered to actually try to
fix their own problems.
 
2012-10-24 04:49:10 AM  
The butthurt is strong in this one. This is how a free market works, if your business is prediction and you predict badly you will fail. If only by the companies who pay you failing and there being nobody left to pay you.
 
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