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(Yahoo)   Headline: "Mitt Romney takes lead in projected electoral vote count." From TFA: "Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama." Yeah, about that liberal media   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 41
    More: Fail, RCP, Mitt Romney, obama, electoral vote, lead in, liberal media, 12th amendment, National Constitution Center  
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3168 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Oct 2012 at 11:40 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-21 11:45:38 AM
5 votes:
Still.

Too.

Close.

As mentioned in another thread, I fear that I'm going to spend these last two weeks just screaming "How the fark are you so POPULAR!?" at my computer. Unless I woke up in an alternate universe where Americans suddenly like sending their sons and daughters off to die in multiple Middle East wars while being blatantly owned by the 1% at home.
2012-10-21 10:12:07 AM
5 votes:
The Republican war on math continues.
ecl
2012-10-21 12:23:08 PM
3 votes:

cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.




Almost as bad? I'ts nearly freeperville.
2012-10-21 12:16:18 PM
3 votes:

taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.


I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.
2012-10-21 12:08:52 PM
3 votes:

clkeagle: Which still doesn't make sense, when you look at how much growth every financial market experienced during the Clinton years as opposed to the Bush administration.

How could the people running the financial sector not understand the merits of long-term sustainable growth vs. short-term plundering? Increasing the wealth of the lower classes just a little will lead to greater and longer-lasting increases in their own wealth. As I've said in similar threads... I can squeeze more juice from a watermelon than I can from a raisin.


It's pretty simple: banking, especially investment banking used to be a VERY conservative business, run by older, sensible men. Once investment banks could trade their own stock and commercial banks were allowed to own investment houses, the young turks took over everything. The turnover is high and most traders working are only in it for what they can get out moment-to-moment to drive their bottom line and most have not lived through a recession other than the current one.

It is an extremely volatile situation and I'm expecting to see another major meltdown in the next eight years unless we pass serious regulation now.

What is really depressing to me is that the bulk of the current wealth inequality in this country, the shift of money into the hands of a very few has happened in my lifetime, in the last 30 years.
2012-10-21 11:53:06 AM
3 votes:

The Great EZE: Still.

Too.

Close.

As mentioned in another thread, I fear that I'm going to spend these last two weeks just screaming "How the fark are you so POPULAR!?" at my computer. Unless I woke up in an alternate universe where Americans suddenly like sending their sons and daughters off to die in multiple Middle East wars while being blatantly owned by the 1% at home.


That's the way I feel. I realize that there's a certain fixed percentage that would vote for a Chupacabra if it had an (R) next to its name but that's where it should have ended. I can't believe it's as close as it is. It's truly scary.
2012-10-21 10:23:28 AM
3 votes:
"Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them."

-Nate Silver
2012-10-21 12:50:44 PM
2 votes:

Mrtraveler01: smitty04: On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats.

Yeah...this citation sounds legit.


Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.

/been adding a lot of people to the List the last couple days
//surprised at certain old names I haven't seen in years showing up again all teh sudden...
2012-10-21 12:31:13 PM
2 votes:

Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'


That would work if the race depended on the outcome of one or two events, but it doesn't, it depends on roughly 50 (I forget how many states can split their EV). Each one of those outcomes is a separate event. Some are certain: Obama will win CA and NY, Romney TX and UT, and some are less so. But the events aren't equally weighted: winning CA and NY mean a hell of a lot more than winning TX.
2012-10-21 12:30:46 PM
2 votes:

Tor_Eckman: Yankees Team Gynecologist: Tor_Eckman: As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.

Why would you think this race isn't close?

See Silver's numbers posted above. Obama with an almost 70% chance to win and rising.

It's closer than I would like, but barring something really unusual happening Romney would need not one but several miracles to happen to actually pull it off.


Miracles = voter suppression/intimidation, Romney family purchasing voting machines, etc.

Today's GOP is the greatest threat America has ever faced. Do NOT underestimate their ability/willingness to steal this election.
2012-10-21 12:30:27 PM
2 votes:

MechaDupek: You libs scared yet?


Um, yes. Terrified. But probably not for the reasons you think.
2012-10-21 12:27:44 PM
2 votes:

Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'


Okay. Now tell me the odds of 538 biffing a projection.
2012-10-21 12:12:36 PM
2 votes:

Edsel: Dwight_Yeast: Edsel: Complacency doesn't serve us liberals well. No, Romney's not winning, but this race IS tight after that disastrous first debate. Hopefully a strong Obama win tomorrow night will give a little cushion.

Next debate is on foreign policy only. If Obama doesn't crush it on that, I'm writing in Vermin Supreme.

Agreed. There's potential for Obama to wipe the floor with Romney. Hoping for a big win.


Won't matter if the media calls it a tie again.
2012-10-21 12:02:51 PM
2 votes:
And some troll in here yelled at me the other day when I didn't think Yahoo News was "liberal"... I haven't seen a single pro-Obama story on Yahoo in weeks. Fox, CNN, Yahoo, and many others have been in Republican pockets for at least two years now. Even BBC News' North America coverage is swinging pretty far to the right these days.

Dwight_Yeast: In 2008, Obama had Wall St behind them, as he'd promised to bail out their asses

This time, they're backing Romney, as Obama has made it clear he wants to regulate and tax their asses.

Wall St, the investment banks now drive corporate America, rather than the other way around, so it's in the corporate media's best interest to make Romney look salable.


Which still doesn't make sense, when you look at how much growth every financial market experienced during the Clinton years as opposed to the Bush administration.

How could the people running the financial sector not understand the merits of long-term sustainable growth vs. short-term plundering? Increasing the wealth of the lower classes just a little will lead to greater and longer-lasting increases in their own wealth. As I've said in similar threads... I can squeeze more juice from a watermelon than I can from a raisin.

Wall Street should be doing everything in its collective power to keep Romney away from the White House, not move him closer to it. The only industries that would truly benefit from another Republican administration are defense and oil.
2012-10-21 11:51:49 AM
2 votes:

Mentat: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

They couldn't in 2008. The Republicans had screwed things up so much that the Democrats could have ran an actual donkey as their candidate and it would have won.


I remember 2008 being relatively close, and McCain actually taking the lead in Nate Silver's prediction shortly after the Republican convention. It wasn't until the debates and the fiscal crisis that Obama's lead started to widen permanently.
2012-10-21 11:49:03 AM
2 votes:

Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.


In 2008, Obama had Wall St behind them, as he'd promised to bail out their asses

This time, they're backing Romney, as Obama has made it clear he wants to regulate and tax their asses.

Wall St, the investment banks now drive corporate America, rather than the other way around, so it's in the corporate media's best interest to make Romney look salable.
2012-10-21 09:00:14 AM
2 votes:
Sooo... Romney leads in the electoral vote count so long as you don't include a bunch of states that are going to go to Obama?
2012-10-21 01:01:25 PM
1 votes:

Dwight_Yeast: Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.


Now, now... don't be so narrow-minded. He could easily be both.
2012-10-21 01:00:43 PM
1 votes:

Ivo Shandor: Sure, but the 538 result is presented as the overall "chance of winning" _after_ considering all of those factors. I have no idea how accurate the prediction is, but that's what he is saying the odds are.


As I pointed out the other day here, think of it as the beginnings of Psycho-history: we want to know the outcome of a complex event involving human beings. So there's a bunch of math and we get a percentage, as we move closer to the event occurring, the accuracy gets better, but -and this is where it gets fun- knowing the percentage affects the outcome. This is the first election where people are really paying attention to Nate Silver, so he may well be shaping events as he predicts them.

/This all makes sense if you grew up watching Quantum Leap
//Asimov does a better job of fleshing out how it would really work.
2012-10-21 01:00:24 PM
1 votes:
The new Bain ads running in Ohio are pretty deadly, and strike a chord in that state especially. We'll see what impact they have on the polls there, but Ohioans aren't keen to elect a professional job outsourcer.
2012-10-21 12:46:51 PM
1 votes:

EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?


Still waiting.


Show your work.
2012-10-21 12:43:04 PM
1 votes:

Thigvald the Big-Balled: .

Today's GOP is the greatest threat America has ever faced. Do NOT underestimate their ability/willingness to steal this election.


Bears repeating. I can't even believe we still have to be worried about this shiat in the 21st century. "American Exceptionalism" my farking ass! :(
2012-10-21 12:43:01 PM
1 votes:

smitty04: A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.


Well when Republican registrars keep throwing their registrations in the trash, what do you expect?
2012-10-21 12:32:35 PM
1 votes:

MechaDupek: You libs scared yet?


You know, this is not the kind of rhetoric that gets looked fondly upon in history books. You don't go around just openly telling your own countrymen to be afraid of you unless you are actively TRYING to get the Villain Edit. Seriously, what was with those black-and-white 'November Is Coming' billboard ads in 2010? Does anyone ever do that and look like the good guys afterwards?
2012-10-21 12:32:28 PM
1 votes:

Dwight_Yeast: Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'

That would work if the race depended on the outcome of one or two events, but it doesn't, it depends on roughly 50 (I forget how many states can split their EV). Each one of those outcomes is a separate event. Some are certain: Obama will win CA and NY, Romney TX and UT, and some are less so. But the events aren't equally weighted: winning CA and NY mean a hell of a lot more than winning TX.


Only Maine and Nebraska split their EV, I think.
2012-10-21 12:24:36 PM
1 votes:

Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.


Oh, they tried. After all, America never votes out the incumbent President's party in wartime. And is America really ready for a black President? And the Bradley Effect, you know! All these polls might be wrong! Silent majority! Tune in to find out!
2012-10-21 12:23:25 PM
1 votes:

Yankees Team Gynecologist: You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.


Yeah, if Obama wins Ohio it's all over. Forget everything else That's why I'm fully in support if any every poll story leading with Ohio. You can talk about the popular vote which doesn't matter or North Carolina which is going toward Romney anyway or Florida which has its head too far up its ass to provide a reliable (and thankfully Obama doesn't need to win) later. Lead with Ohio.

It sucks that we have to give so much attention to one state but that's the way it is. And again, Obama bailed you fools out but it's still. Too. Close.
2012-10-21 12:19:40 PM
1 votes:

Tor_Eckman: qorkfiend: Mentat: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

They couldn't in 2008. The Republicans had screwed things up so much that the Democrats could have ran an actual donkey as their candidate and it would have won.

I remember 2008 being relatively close, and McCain actually taking the lead in Nate Silver's prediction shortly after the Republican convention. It wasn't until the debates and the fiscal crisis that Obama's lead started to widen permanently.

RCP had Obama at +7.3 popular and +126 EVs on this day in 2008.

Hard to spin that.


Indeed. My point was that unlike this year, in 2008 Obama hadn't held that lead throughout the cycle.
2012-10-21 12:18:37 PM
1 votes:

Dwight_Yeast: Because the numbers say it's not. Not the polling data, but the actual numbers.

Romney hasn't been close to 270 at any point in this race, and Obama has never dipped below it.

There are a number of "swing" states in play, but they more or less cancel each other out. Obama only has to win a couple, but Romney has to win all of them to win.


---

You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.

Don't get me wrong, I sure as hell hope you're right, and I realize the odds are still in Obama's favor, but it's still too close to comfort.
2012-10-21 12:16:43 PM
1 votes:

Mrtraveler01: Won't matter if the media calls it a tie again.


It will just add to the complete surrealism of this campaign.

/as I've said all along, Romney should be running as the (D) and Obama as the (R), especially with the way the parties are polarized at the moment.
2012-10-21 12:13:11 PM
1 votes:

Kurmudgeon: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race.

Romney is actual right wing elite, conservative meda would throw themselves in front of a bus for him
McCain was too liberal for them in 2000 and had no Bush family genes, he only had the advantage of not being a Kenyen Usurper in 2008..


Let's ask Rush Limbaugh about Romney: "Remember when I hoped that he was a failure, hoped he would fail, and he hasn't. You know, depending on your perspective, Mitt, he hasn't failed, that's a problem. (interruption) Yeah, I know, some people say Romney's in over his hair here. I just don't understand the reluctance. The guy's a socialist."
2012-10-21 12:12:28 PM
1 votes:

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Tor_Eckman: As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.

Why would you think this race isn't close?


Because the numbers say it's not. Not the polling data, but the actual numbers.

Romney hasn't been close to 270 at any point in this race, and Obama has never dipped below it.

There are a number of "swing" states in play, but they more or less cancel each other out. Obama only has to win a couple, but Romney has to win all of them to win.
2012-10-21 12:10:32 PM
1 votes:

Edsel: Complacency doesn't serve us liberals well. No, Romney's not winning, but this race IS tight after that disastrous first debate. Hopefully a strong Obama win tomorrow night will give a little cushion.


Next debate is on foreign policy only. If Obama doesn't crush it on that, I'm writing in Vermin Supreme.
2012-10-21 12:01:10 PM
1 votes:
I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.
2012-10-21 11:52:43 AM
1 votes:
2 farking weeks. We just have to survive 2 more farking weeks
2012-10-21 11:43:58 AM
1 votes:
I can remember "it's a horserace" bullshiat from every national election.
What else would the pundits say? You can ignore us now?
The political parties also need to keep their constituents motivated up to election day.
2012-10-21 11:05:57 AM
1 votes:

EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?


Umm, no. The headline states Romney has a lead in the projected electoral vote, but the article then makes it clear he doesn't. He does, according to RCP's method, have a lead in states that could be considered "safe" for one candidate or the other. But every projection, including the one TFA is about, has Obama winning most of the "battleground" states.

So, at best, the headline is sloppily written, and, at worst, is a cynical attempt to keep the narrative going that this race is closer than it is.
2012-10-21 10:37:36 AM
1 votes:
RCP is really desperate, aren't they? Really, at this point, other outfits should stop trying to figure this out and just redirect to 538.
2012-10-21 10:31:37 AM
1 votes:

Tor_Eckman: push the narrative that this is a close race


Ding, ding, ding, ding!!!
Exactly. Wouldn't want us to turn off our TVs, would they?
2012-10-21 10:17:40 AM
1 votes:
Well, I believe what they are saying is RCP is now predicting that among the states that are supposedly safe, Romney now has an EV advantage for the first time since the real race started. Which is actually newsworthy. As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.
2012-10-21 09:21:46 AM
1 votes:
And apparently only if you read the headline and not TFA.
 
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