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(Yahoo)   Headline: "Mitt Romney takes lead in projected electoral vote count." From TFA: "Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama." Yeah, about that liberal media   (news.yahoo.com ) divider line
    More: Fail, RCP, Mitt Romney, obama, electoral vote, lead in, liberal media, 12th amendment, National Constitution Center  
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3177 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Oct 2012 at 11:40 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-21 05:51:43 PM  
Might want to check this out before you go giving Obama the nod:

Link
(Washington Post)
 
2012-10-21 06:01:06 PM  

tony41454: Might want to check this out before you go giving Obama the nod:

Link
(Washington Post)


I love that you A. Use a Gallup National Poll which has been proven to be an outlier because Romney's "advantage" comes from the South in states that will overwhelmingly vote for him and B. Cite the link as from the Washington Post when it's from the Moonie Times.
 
2012-10-21 06:05:54 PM  

cpw49684: I can remember "it's a horserace" bullshiat from every national election.
What else would the pundits say? You can ignore us now?
The political parties also need to keep their constituents motivated up to election day.


Yeah, in Nate Silver's book he talks about the predictions from The McLaughlin Group pundits the week of the election. IIRC, it was two McCain's, one too close to call, and only one Obama, in spite of all the polls showing an EV win for Obama.

\Pundits take controversial stances, more at 11.
 
2012-10-21 06:19:40 PM  

smitty04: Mrtraveler01: You come up with a better citation than some shiatty right-wing blog called Powerline and maybe I'll start believing you.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent.


Except 08 had a hotly contested primary, and in many states, you have to be registered with a party to vote in their primary. So people like me register D, vote that year, and switch back to their preferred third party until the next heated primary.
 
2012-10-21 06:31:15 PM  
I have a prediction: Obama is going to lose the popular vote total by a percentage point or two, but win the Electoral College by at least 50 votes. Republicans, and particularly the Tea Party idiots are going to howl and moan about the election being stolen, because few of them have the mental capacity to remember 12 years ago, and the rest won't care because it's totally different this time.
 
2012-10-21 06:39:39 PM  

Notabunny: cameroncrazy1984: "Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them."

-Nate Silver

Too many words!

538.jpg


The FiveThirtyEight infographics are all I need to know about the race. Any other source that puts out numbers that diverges from Nate Silver's calculations are questionable at best and intentionally misleading at worse.
 
2012-10-21 07:01:00 PM  

Tor_Eckman: Well, I believe what they are saying is RCP is now predicting that among the states that are supposedly safe, Romney now has an EV advantage for the first time since the real race started. Which is actually newsworthy. As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.


In other words, Obama is still winning, just by less than he was a few weeks ago. So they can spin that into "Romney's losing by less than he was! That means he's winning! Yay!"
 
2012-10-21 07:30:12 PM  

Mrtraveler01: smitty04: A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.

Got a citation for this?


But don't you see, the rate at which Democrats have signed up new voters has dropped. Just like how the rate at which new states have been added to the union has dropped to 0% since 1959 means that US is shrinking! WE'RE DOOMED!
 
2012-10-21 08:16:43 PM  
The rightwing assault on math continues.
 
2012-10-21 08:42:42 PM  
If I had a nickel for every time EnviroDude was asked to show his work and didn't...
 
2012-10-21 09:42:03 PM  

Bucky Katt: The rightwing assault on math continues.


If it doesn't fit on a standardized Scantron test, they think it doesn't count.
 
2012-10-21 11:14:02 PM  
If we only count the votes that are for Romney, Romney will have a very strong showing.
 
2012-10-22 03:03:48 AM  

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: Mrtraveler01: smitty04: A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.

Got a citation for this?

But don't you see, the rate at which Democrats have signed up new voters has dropped. Just like how the rate at which new states have been added to the union has dropped to 0% since 1959 means that US is shrinking! WE'RE DOOMED!


The other number the GOP likes to point to is the fact that the number of people seeking work keeps dropping, forgetting that Baby Boomers are retiring in ever-increasing numbers.
 
2012-10-22 08:07:36 AM  

Smelly McUgly: If the media and the Republicans get together and wish really hard, maybe they can turn this election into the close race that this isn't.


Check the polls. It is a close race. Obama has the advantage, but the last farking thing we need to do is get all cocky and complacent like we were before Denver.
 
2012-10-23 08:27:26 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA?


Romney is a 3-1 underdog to win in NV right now.

Romney has only 37% chance of winning IA.

The odds of Romney winning all 5 of states you mention using odds based on Intrade.com prediction market are currently: .371 * .241 * .554 * .725 * .591 = .021 or a ~ 2.1% chance.

2% chance is somewhat realistic, but there are many other combinations that give Romney a more realistic chance of winning.
 
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