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(Yahoo)   Headline: "Mitt Romney takes lead in projected electoral vote count." From TFA: "Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama." Yeah, about that liberal media   (news.yahoo.com ) divider line
    More: Fail, RCP, Mitt Romney, obama, electoral vote, lead in, liberal media, 12th amendment, National Constitution Center  
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3177 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Oct 2012 at 11:40 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-21 12:46:51 PM  

EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?


Still waiting.


Show your work.
 
2012-10-21 12:47:56 PM  

smitty04: On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats.


Yeah...this citation sounds legit.
 
2012-10-21 12:50:44 PM  

Mrtraveler01: smitty04: On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats.

Yeah...this citation sounds legit.


Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.

/been adding a lot of people to the List the last couple days
//surprised at certain old names I haven't seen in years showing up again all teh sudden...
 
2012-10-21 12:51:42 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: That would work if the race depended on the outcome of one or two events, but it doesn't, it depends on roughly 50 (I forget how many states can split their EV). Each one of those outcomes is a separate event. Some are certain: Obama will win CA and NY, Romney TX and UT, and some are less so. But the events aren't equally weighted: winning CA and NY mean a hell of a lot more than winning TX.


Sure, but the 538 result is presented as the overall "chance of winning" _after_ considering all of those factors. I have no idea how accurate the prediction is, but that's what he is saying the odds are.

The Great EZE: Here's why I don't like percentage "odds" when predicting an election: odds are for things that depend on pure chance and elections aren't chance. Obama or Romney aren't going to win this election because they got lucky.


There is always going to be some random variation in the vote counts. Maybe someone's dog got sick and she had to take him to the vet instead of going to the polling place. Maybe someone didn't use a dark enough pencil mark to fill out an optical-scan ballot. Maybe an undecided voter happened to hear someone else in the lineup complaining that his job was just outsourced to China. Now if one side or another has a big enough lead then that doesn't matter; a 72%-to-28% win is the same as a 68%-to-32% win. Conversely, if enough of the local races are close to being a 50-50 split then that random variation can bubble up and become significant to the overall result.
 
2012-10-21 12:52:56 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: Mrtraveler01: smitty04: On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats.

Yeah...this citation sounds legit.

Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.

/been adding a lot of people to the List the last couple days
//surprised at certain old names I haven't seen in years showing up again all teh sudden...


www.askingsmarterquestions.com
 
2012-10-21 12:52:58 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.


I was just amazed that he actually cited a shiatty blog.
 
2012-10-21 12:54:02 PM  

smitty04: Dwight_Yeast: Mrtraveler01: smitty04: On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats.

Yeah...this citation sounds legit.

Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.

/been adding a lot of people to the List the last couple days
//surprised at certain old names I haven't seen in years showing up again all teh sudden...

[www.askingsmarterquestions.com image 450x302]


You come up with a better citation than some shiatty right-wing blog called Powerline and maybe I'll start believing you.
 
2012-10-21 12:59:31 PM  

Tor_Eckman: Well, I believe what they are saying is RCP is now predicting that among the states that are supposedly safe, Romney now has an EV advantage for the first time since the real race started. Which is actually newsworthy. As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.


But this is historically true in every election. GOP has had the default lead of safe states for a few decades, just that the GOP had farked up so badly some of them had edged into "almost toss-up" territory.
 
2012-10-21 01:00:02 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: "Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them."

-Nate Silver


Nate Silver's a liberal commie (when his polls support Obama)
 
2012-10-21 01:00:24 PM  
The new Bain ads running in Ohio are pretty deadly, and strike a chord in that state especially. We'll see what impact they have on the polls there, but Ohioans aren't keen to elect a professional job outsourcer.
 
2012-10-21 01:00:43 PM  

Ivo Shandor: Sure, but the 538 result is presented as the overall "chance of winning" _after_ considering all of those factors. I have no idea how accurate the prediction is, but that's what he is saying the odds are.


As I pointed out the other day here, think of it as the beginnings of Psycho-history: we want to know the outcome of a complex event involving human beings. So there's a bunch of math and we get a percentage, as we move closer to the event occurring, the accuracy gets better, but -and this is where it gets fun- knowing the percentage affects the outcome. This is the first election where people are really paying attention to Nate Silver, so he may well be shaping events as he predicts them.

/This all makes sense if you grew up watching Quantum Leap
//Asimov does a better job of fleshing out how it would really work.
 
2012-10-21 01:01:25 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: Smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.


Now, now... don't be so narrow-minded. He could easily be both.
 
2012-10-21 01:01:37 PM  
 
2012-10-21 01:02:46 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Dwight_Yeast: smitty's a troll or an idiot. Either way, he's best Ignored.

I was just amazed that he actually cited a shiatty blog.


Yeah, I'm surprised you actually got a cit out of him, but every once in a while a troll around here surprises us.
 
2012-10-21 01:03:36 PM  

smitty04: Mrtraveler01: You come up with a better citation than some shiatty right-wing blog called Powerline and maybe I'll start believing you.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent.


There we go. Was that so hard?
 
2012-10-21 01:05:14 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: The new Bain ads running in Ohio are pretty deadly, and strike a chord in that state especially. We'll see what impact they have on the polls there, but Ohioans aren't keen to elect a professional job outsourcer.


New you say? I'd love to see it. Do you have a catch phrase or quote or something that I can use to search the tubes?
 
2012-10-21 01:09:23 PM  
If the media and the Republicans get together and wish really hard, maybe they can turn this election into the close race that this isn't.
 
2012-10-21 01:09:35 PM  
The thing to consider from that article was that the the decrease in Democrats was accompanied by the increase in Independents, not Republicans.

And trends tend to show Independents in states like Ohio more likely to back Obama than Romney.

But that being said, we still need to get out the vote no matter how much the GOP stops them.
 
2012-10-21 01:11:54 PM  
smitty04:Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent.

Oh no! Since people are absolutely required to vote with their party affiliations, under penalty of execution, that's just terrible news for Democratic candidates! Everybody panic!

Hey, wait a minute... I live in Iowa, I'm a registered Republican, and will be voting very close to a straight-party Democratic ticket next month. Because here on Earth, party registration counts have nothing to do with election results.

Oops, didn't mean to interrupt your mental vomit with common sense. Please carry on.
 
2012-10-21 01:14:19 PM  
A word of caution to those of you calling out trolls in this thread-that sort of thing is being dealt with swiftly and severely lately.

Trust me.
 
2012-10-21 01:15:30 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: The Great EZE: I like to use Nate's quantitative numbers, but only so I can make a more accurate qualitative assessment in my head. He says 67.9% odds of an Obama win. I take that to mean that if voter turn out is what we expect it to be and if another October 2008 doesn't happen then Obama should win. And right now neither of those things are expected to happen. It's a more accurate way of thinking and you can leave your 20-sided die in the drawer.

I hope you're right, but I take "chance of winning" to mean odds in exactly the coin-flip sense. Yes, the unknowns aren't exactly based on "luck," but they may as well be random since, again, they're unknowns. I assume Nate Silver has translated all of that into coin-flip speak, which is why he presents it as a percentage "chance."


Sam Wang another highly respected poll analyzer with a great track record put Obama at a 90% chance on NPR during an interview with himself and Silver, and talked a good bit about this sort of thing
 
2012-10-21 01:17:28 PM  

The Great EZE: New you say? I'd love to see it. Do you have a catch phrase or quote or something that I can use to search the tubes?



It's called "The Stage," and I guess it isn't technically "new." Priorities USA is just bringing it back and doing a big ad buy in Ohio with it. Probably the best campaign ad I've seen this year. 2.5M views on YouTube.

There's another Ohio ad about GM that I believe is new, and it's pretty killer as well.
 
2012-10-21 01:20:40 PM  

Tor_Eckman: A word of caution to those of you calling out trolls in this thread-that sort of thing is being dealt with swiftly and severely lately.

Trust me.


I said "could be," not "is." :)
 
2012-10-21 01:21:38 PM  

raerae1980: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

I don't remember them doing it either.


It IS a close race. It's going to come down to who can get their people excited enough to go to the polls. It really doesn't help Democrats to sit back like the hare and say "Relax, we've got this in the bag" without noticing that the tortoise is slowly crossing the finish line.

Don't be complacent. This is important.

Vote for f*ck's sake.
 
2012-10-21 01:22:10 PM  

Smelly McUgly: If the media and the Republicans get together and wish really hard, maybe they can turn this election into the close race that this isn't.


I don't even know what you get as a right wing punditry site by claiming this is a tight race instead of one where they really really need to get out and get people to the polls, they should be pushing a bit of panic like red alert times. I think that's a blunder by those in the right wing media.
 
2012-10-21 01:22:43 PM  
The Great EZE:

Still.

Too.

Close.

As mentioned in another thread, I fear that I'm going to spend these last two weeks just screaming "How the fark are you so POPULAR!?" at my computer. Unless I woke up in an alternate universe where Americans suddenly like sending their sons and daughters off to die in multiple Middle East wars while being blatantly owned by the 1% at home.


Basically, THIS
 
2012-10-21 01:28:46 PM  

Headso: I don't even know what you get as a right wing punditry site by claiming this is a tight race instead of one where they really really need to get out and get people to the polls, they should be pushing a bit of panic like red alert times. I think that's a blunder by those in the right wing media.


I think they're hoping for a repeat of the mid-terms, where a lot of Republicans won because of low voter turnout. If they convince people that Romney has a good chance of winning as it gets close, they hope that the Democrats will just stay home. Spooking their base isn't going to help their cause, as their base are particularly dumb sheep.
 
2012-10-21 01:30:30 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: The Great EZE: New you say? I'd love to see it. Do you have a catch phrase or quote or something that I can use to search the tubes?


It's called "The Stage," and I guess it isn't technically "new." Priorities USA is just bringing it back and doing a big ad buy in Ohio with it. Probably the best campaign ad I've seen this year. 2.5M views on YouTube.

There's another Ohio ad about GM that I believe is new, and it's pretty killer as well.


LOL, I think it says a lot (little good) about me that I think of "The Stage" as being old and busted. I'll be glad when this is all over.

I guess I was hoping that Team Obama had some new devastating stuff saved for the home stretch. I'm talking something that would make "The Stage" look like that joke "Big Bird" ad. Makes me wonder why campaigns tend to roll out stuff like "The Stage" and the "47%" ad so early in August and September.

Obama is the 21st century candidate. He's plugged into social media. He should crowdsource some of this stuff. If Farkers can raise almost $15,000 to make some silly internet meme happen we can certainly come up with a 30-second spot that calls Romney the second coming of Satan in a reasonable and classy way.
 
2012-10-21 01:39:16 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: The Great EZE: New you say? I'd love to see it. Do you have a catch phrase or quote or something that I can use to search the tubes?


It's called "The Stage," and I guess it isn't technically "new." Priorities USA is just bringing it back and doing a big ad buy in Ohio with it. Probably the best campaign ad I've seen this year. 2.5M views on YouTube.

There's another Ohio ad about GM that I believe is new, and it's pretty killer as well.


Those are both excellent ads. It's damn puzzling that plenty of middle class workers in Ohio will still vote Romney. Empty right wing rhetoric plays well there. Still, I'm hopeful that the majority there won't let it happen. Turnout is everything.
 
2012-10-21 01:42:25 PM  

Raharu: EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?

Still waiting.


Show your work.


He has a maximum posting limit for each thread and it tops out when someone calls him out on his bullshiat.
 
2012-10-21 01:46:12 PM  
294 * (3/5)
 
2012-10-21 01:47:05 PM  

Rev. Skarekroe: raerae1980: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

I don't remember them doing it either.

It IS a close race. It's going to come down to who can get their people excited enough to go to the polls. It really doesn't help Democrats to sit back like the hare and say "Relax, we've got this in the bag" without noticing that the tortoise is slowly crossing the finish line.

Don't be complacent. This is important.

Vote for f*ck's sake.


I'm not too worried about people here voting. We're junkies. I'm going to vote as hard as I possibly can, and hopefully take some other people to do so as well. It wouldn't matter to me if Nate had Obama at a 99% chance of winning. I don't think complacent people that would stay home based on polls really hang out here.
 
2012-10-21 02:08:31 PM  

sonnyboy11: Those are both excellent ads. It's damn puzzling that plenty of middle class workers in Ohio will still vote Romney. Empty right wing rhetoric plays well there. Still, I'm hopeful that the majority there won't let it happen. Turnout is everything.


It's bad here in Iowa, too. Three things that the majority of Iowa citizens can take pride in - wind power, good public education, and cheap gasoline. Romney has openly stated numerous times that he will dismantle wind power, defund public education and allow public funds to be used on religious schools, and approve the Keystone pipeline to send all of Iowa's cheap gasoline to China. Three things that every Iowan enjoys will be devastated by a Romney administration.

The campaign ads aren't focused on these things. The ones that run on our local channels are blathering on and on about healthcare and employment - two areas that haven't affected us nearly as much as the rest of the nation. But it sure sounds scary. The result? Obama is only leading by a few points here, when common sense alone should make it a landslide.
 
2012-10-21 02:10:21 PM  

Mugato: He has a maximum posting limit for each thread and it tops out when someone calls him out on his bullshiat.


Could we start calling him out on his initial posts.

/so tired of the Internet Dentist and all his myriad alts.
 
2012-10-21 02:18:28 PM  

EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?


Hey E.Disfunction.

Still waiting for you to show your work.
 
2012-10-21 02:36:10 PM  
For all the raging at Nate Silver for being too liberal and at Real Clear Politics for being too conservative, their numbers are essentially the same.

They both are projecting a 52 / 48 Senate majority for the Democrats. And They are both projecting that Obama will take Ohio and win the election.

If there is any bias in either site, it's only reflected in their handling of Colorado and New Hampshire, both of which are polling extremely close & could go either way, but neither of which will actually matter in the end.

All other states & races they are making the exact same call on.
 
2012-10-21 02:36:48 PM  

Tor_Eckman:

I'm not too worried about people here voting.


I am, but mostly younger voters. I keep hearing that the ones who very much played a decisive role in electing Obama in 08 are pretty much sitting this one out. There's no big rallies on campuses any more and I think voting has gone from cool to un-cool.

Also, I hope I'm wrong.
 
2012-10-21 02:36:55 PM  
This reminds me of this awful segment I saw on Hardball the other night where Chuck Todd and some tool from Politico were saying to Matthews that Romney's campaign had the momentum of a runaway fright train and wondered why he was so popular. They even went so far to say they wouldn't be "shocked" if Romney "won" in a landslide.

It was the most embrassing thing I had ever watched in my life and I couldn't believe how Chris Matthews just sat there and swallowed the crap coming out of their mouths.

In an age where people like Nate Silver and Sam Wang exist, giving their information based on science and facts and not snapshots and whatever the media narrative of the day is why does cable news even bother?
 
2012-10-21 02:37:44 PM  
Ever notice how right after certain candidates embarrasses themselves in debates, the media always seem to double down on their efforts to cherry-pick polls that indicate they're actually surging?

Even the supposedly liberal Huffington Post (now owned by the definitely conservative AOL) has been doing this lately.
 
2012-10-21 02:39:31 PM  
The trolls give zero credit to Obama for the death of Osama bin Laden - but if that mission had gone badly, they'd be calling for our president to dragged through the streets behind an Abrams tank. Republiscum can GF themselves.
 
2012-10-21 02:39:52 PM  

skykid: In an age where people like Nate Silver and Sam Wang exist, giving their information based on science and facts and not snapshots and whatever the media narrative of the day is why does cable news even bother?


Because we still have at least two generations (Greatest and Boomer) who were taught that you could trust the news media and who like to have their confirmation bias fed, so they still make money.

It's going to be interesting when people younger than myself -who get their news online and from social media- move to the forefront of politics in a decade or two, as the current crap won't fly.
 
2012-10-21 02:39:57 PM  

clkeagle: sonnyboy11: Those are both excellent ads. It's damn puzzling that plenty of middle class workers in Ohio will still vote Romney. Empty right wing rhetoric plays well there. Still, I'm hopeful that the majority there won't let it happen. Turnout is everything.

It's bad here in Iowa, too. Three things that the majority of Iowa citizens can take pride in - wind power, good public education, and cheap gasoline. Romney has openly stated numerous times that he will dismantle wind power, defund public education and allow public funds to be used on religious schools, and approve the Keystone pipeline to send all of Iowa's cheap gasoline to China. Three things that every Iowan enjoys will be devastated by a Romney administration.

The campaign ads aren't focused on these things. The ones that run on our local channels are blathering on and on about healthcare and employment - two areas that haven't affected us nearly as much as the rest of the nation. But it sure sounds scary. The result? Obama is only leading by a few points here, when common sense alone should make it a landslide.


Over the next two weeks you're likely to see a real blitz of ads there. So perhaps some of the areas you mentioned will get more focus.
 
2012-10-21 02:42:04 PM  

skykid: This reminds me of this awful segment I saw on Hardball the other night where Chuck Todd and some tool from Politico were saying to Matthews that Romney's campaign had the momentum of a runaway fright train and wondered why he was so popular. They even went so far to say they wouldn't be "shocked" if Romney "won" in a landslide.

It was the most embrassing thing I had ever watched in my life and I couldn't believe how Chris Matthews just sat there and swallowed the crap coming out of their mouths.

In an age where people like Nate Silver and Sam Wang exist, giving their information based on science and facts and not snapshots and whatever the media narrative of the day is why does cable news even bother?


You wouldn't be so surprised if you were a regular reader of The Daily Howler.
 
2012-10-21 02:49:18 PM  
WHAT TO MAKE OF DECLINING DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION?

Powerline blog? Seriously?
"Power Line is an American political publication, providing news and commentary from a conservative point-of-view."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Line
 
2012-10-21 03:38:15 PM  

clkeagle: How could the people running the financial sector not understand the merits of long-term sustainable growth vs. short-term plundering? Increasing the wealth of the lower classes just a little will lead to greater and longer-lasting increases in their own wealth. As I've said in similar threads... I can squeeze more juice from a watermelon than I can from a raisin.


It is a whole new set of pirates.
As soon as one pirate gets his mountain of gold, he runs away and hides with it.
Next pirate steps up and wants his mountain of gold NOW!!!!

Collectively, everyone does better with long term thinking. Individually, a ton of people got CRAZY rich under bush 2.0 and didnt have to pay taxes!!

LOLOLOLOL
 
2012-10-21 03:43:07 PM  

cpw49684: Tor_Eckman: push the narrative that this is a close race

Ding, ding, ding, ding!!!
Exactly. Wouldn't want us to turn off our TVs, would they?


I love that people still think this despite all evidence to the contrary.
 
2012-10-21 04:36:22 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: Yankees Team Gynecologist: You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.

Don't get me wrong, I sure as hell hope you're right, and I realize the odds are still in Obama's favor, but it's still too close to comfort.

I don't think so. I can see Romney taking VA but not FL. There's really no way Romney takes PA unless the Democrats fail to get out the vote. I don't think it will come down to a tie. It will be decisive one way or the other, but if Obama wins, all we'll hear about is the popular vote, which is meaningless but which will be close.


I'm phonebanking for obama next weekend in my area of the Philly burbs.

If you have some time, help out, especially now. These last two weeks, we don't need complacency, close race or not.
 
2012-10-21 04:56:55 PM  

Raharu: EnviroDude: Subby fails reading comprehension?

Hey E.Disfunction.

Still waiting for you to show your work.


Forget it, Jake. It's FARK Politics.
 
2012-10-21 05:11:12 PM  

The Great EZE: Still.

Too.

Close.

As mentioned in another thread, I fear that I'm going to spend these last two weeks just screaming "How the fark are you so POPULAR!?" at my computer. Unless I woke up in an alternate universe where Americans suddenly like sending their sons and daughters off to die in multiple Middle East wars while being blatantly owned by the 1% at home.


Uh, we do live in that america.
 
2012-10-21 05:28:15 PM  

Nucleus: The trolls give zero credit to Obama for the death of Osama bin Laden - but if that mission had gone badly, they'd be calling for our president to dragged through the streets behind an Abrams tank. Republiscum can GF themselves.


Oh, there would have been an impeachment hearing if that had gone badly. Guarantee it.

SomeoneDumb: I am, but mostly younger voters. I keep hearing that the ones who very much played a decisive role in electing Obama in 08 are pretty much sitting this one out. There's no big rallies on campuses any more and I think voting has gone from cool to un-cool.


A lot of elderly will sit this one out too. They hate both Romney and Obama. I'm predicting this will be the lowest voter turnout of any Presidential election. That's why every vote is so important, especially in swing states.

Hell, even one or two of the smaller "safe" states might swing a different way, just because of skewed voter representation.
 
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