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(Yahoo)   Headline: "Mitt Romney takes lead in projected electoral vote count." From TFA: "Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama." Yeah, about that liberal media   (news.yahoo.com ) divider line
    More: Fail, RCP, Mitt Romney, obama, electoral vote, lead in, liberal media, 12th amendment, National Constitution Center  
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3178 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Oct 2012 at 11:40 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-21 12:15:41 PM  

taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately.


Oh I've noticed it all right. The articles have been very snarky when it comes to trying to downplay anything positive about Obama. And just try leaving any comments there that don't kiss Rmoney's ass. Even if your comment may get past the censorship mods, the Teahadist readers there will downvote your comments off the page.

Makes you wonder if Yahoo is about to be investigated by the DoJ like Gallup is. These guys really, really want Rmoney to win.
 
2012-10-21 12:16:18 PM  

taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.


I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.
 
2012-10-21 12:16:43 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Won't matter if the media calls it a tie again.


It will just add to the complete surrealism of this campaign.

/as I've said all along, Romney should be running as the (D) and Obama as the (R), especially with the way the parties are polarized at the moment.
 
2012-10-21 12:18:25 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: You know, I'd really kill/love to see someone leak one of these media conglomerates internal emails/orders to push this narrative of "it's neck and neck we swear" crap.


And who's gonna publish those?

More accurately, who's gonna publish it that will be taken seriously by the public?
 
2012-10-21 12:18:37 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: Because the numbers say it's not. Not the polling data, but the actual numbers.

Romney hasn't been close to 270 at any point in this race, and Obama has never dipped below it.

There are a number of "swing" states in play, but they more or less cancel each other out. Obama only has to win a couple, but Romney has to win all of them to win.


---

You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.

Don't get me wrong, I sure as hell hope you're right, and I realize the odds are still in Obama's favor, but it's still too close to comfort.
 
2012-10-21 12:18:52 PM  

quatchi:
That noted, take nothing for granted. Vote. Encourage others to do the same.


Voting isn't important. The pundits and campaign spokespeople will tell us who won.
 
2012-10-21 12:19:11 PM  

cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.


Who the hell owns Yahoo at this point?
 
2012-10-21 12:19:40 PM  

Tor_Eckman: qorkfiend: Mentat: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

They couldn't in 2008. The Republicans had screwed things up so much that the Democrats could have ran an actual donkey as their candidate and it would have won.

I remember 2008 being relatively close, and McCain actually taking the lead in Nate Silver's prediction shortly after the Republican convention. It wasn't until the debates and the fiscal crisis that Obama's lead started to widen permanently.

RCP had Obama at +7.3 popular and +126 EVs on this day in 2008.

Hard to spin that.


Indeed. My point was that unlike this year, in 2008 Obama hadn't held that lead throughout the cycle.
 
2012-10-21 12:20:06 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Dwight_Yeast: Because the numbers say it's not. Not the polling data, but the actual numbers.

Romney hasn't been close to 270 at any point in this race, and Obama has never dipped below it.

There are a number of "swing" states in play, but they more or less cancel each other out. Obama only has to win a couple, but Romney has to win all of them to win.

---

You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.

Don't get me wrong, I sure as hell hope you're right, and I realize the odds are still in Obama's favor, but it's still too close to comfort.


On VA: Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson. Poof! No Romney win.
ON NV. NM and AZ: Gary Johnson
 
2012-10-21 12:20:54 PM  

Smoking GNU: And who's gonna publish those?

More accurately, who's gonna publish it that will be taken seriously by the public?


Hmmm. 4chan?
 
2012-10-21 12:21:14 PM  

raerae1980: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

I don't remember them doing it either.


Probably because they could get their ratings purely from introducing a segment with "Today, Sarah Palin said..."
 
2012-10-21 12:21:39 PM  

Notabunny: cameroncrazy1984: "Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them."

-Nate Silver

Too many words!

[img.photobucket.com image 326x800]


How does one get 3/5 of an elector.
 
ecl [BareFark]
2012-10-21 12:23:08 PM  

cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.


Almost as bad? I'ts nearly freeperville.
 
2012-10-21 12:23:25 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.


Yeah, if Obama wins Ohio it's all over. Forget everything else That's why I'm fully in support if any every poll story leading with Ohio. You can talk about the popular vote which doesn't matter or North Carolina which is going toward Romney anyway or Florida which has its head too far up its ass to provide a reliable (and thankfully Obama doesn't need to win) later. Lead with Ohio.

It sucks that we have to give so much attention to one state but that's the way it is. And again, Obama bailed you fools out but it's still. Too. Close.
 
2012-10-21 12:23:52 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.

Who the hell owns Yahoo at this point?

 

i28.photobucket.com

It often seems like it, these days.
 
2012-10-21 12:24:00 PM  

Tor_Eckman: See Silver's numbers posted above. Obama with an almost 70% chance to win and rising.

It's closer than I would like, but barring something really unusual happening Romney would need not one but several miracles to happen to actually pull it off.


Really?

17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'
 
2012-10-21 12:24:36 PM  

Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.


Oh, they tried. After all, America never votes out the incumbent President's party in wartime. And is America really ready for a black President? And the Bradley Effect, you know! All these polls might be wrong! Silent majority! Tune in to find out!
 
2012-10-21 12:24:50 PM  

clkeagle: How could the people running the financial sector not understand the merits of long-term sustainable growth vs. short-term plundering?


the people running the financial sector have perpetrated a scam. 1) you have to pay lots and lots of money for a small pool of talent 2) that talent is measured by either this quarters stock price/dividend or "beating" expectations. the long term view hasn't existed for some time now. as proof when did R&D get increased anywhere?

ok it might have at some startup
 
2012-10-21 12:25:38 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.

Who the hell owns Yahoo at this point?


Isn't it in a partnership with ABC News now?
 
2012-10-21 12:25:45 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: You don't think Romney can realistically win IA, NV, CO, FL, and VA? Assuming Obama wins OH, PA, and WI, this makes for a very possible 269-269 tie.

Don't get me wrong, I sure as hell hope you're right, and I realize the odds are still in Obama's favor, but it's still too close to comfort.


I don't think so. I can see Romney taking VA but not FL. There's really no way Romney takes PA unless the Democrats fail to get out the vote. I don't think it will come down to a tie. It will be decisive one way or the other, but if Obama wins, all we'll hear about is the popular vote, which is meaningless but which will be close.
 
2012-10-21 12:26:05 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.

Who the hell owns Yahoo at this point?


all the people who used to post on foxnews.com probably went there after they shut the comments section down for being too embarrassing.
 
2012-10-21 12:27:44 PM  

Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'


Okay. Now tell me the odds of 538 biffing a projection.
 
2012-10-21 12:27:59 PM  

cc_rider: taoistlumberjak: I don't know if anyone has noticed, but yahoo news has gone really hard right lately. Not as far right as fox news, but far enough that I've noticed the same thing in a number of articles. Namely, that they're pushing a clearly one-sided view on the issues.

I noticed this a few years back. The comments on yahoo are now almost as bad as the worst YouTube comments.


Not just for their politics, either. Even the comments there on things like hockey are enough to cause me serious mental agony.

The people who still use Yahoo! actively are idiots. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised by that at this point.
 
2012-10-21 12:28:02 PM  

Tor_Eckman: See Silver's numbers posted above. Obama with an almost 70% chance to win and rising.


Even assuming that's accurate, a 70% chance of winning is not the same thing as having 70% of the electoral vote in a moderately secure bag. You wouldn't feel good about 30% on anything reasonably important.

Recently I've seen more of these "undecided" voters and what they're (in)capable of, and that's what worries me.
 
2012-10-21 12:28:25 PM  
You libs scared yet?
 
2012-10-21 12:28:50 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: I can see Romney taking VA but not FL.


That's odd. Because I think it's more likely for Romney to win Florida than it is to win Virginia.

All the poll I've seen in Florida seem to favor Romney by a narrow margin.
 
2012-10-21 12:30:27 PM  

MechaDupek: You libs scared yet?


Um, yes. Terrified. But probably not for the reasons you think.
 
2012-10-21 12:30:46 PM  

Tor_Eckman: Yankees Team Gynecologist: Tor_Eckman: As long as you are trying to push the narrative that this is a close race. Which it really isn't.

Why would you think this race isn't close?

See Silver's numbers posted above. Obama with an almost 70% chance to win and rising.

It's closer than I would like, but barring something really unusual happening Romney would need not one but several miracles to happen to actually pull it off.


Miracles = voter suppression/intimidation, Romney family purchasing voting machines, etc.

Today's GOP is the greatest threat America has ever faced. Do NOT underestimate their ability/willingness to steal this election.
 
2012-10-21 12:30:51 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Dwight_Yeast: I can see Romney taking VA but not FL.

That's odd. Because I think it's more likely for Romney to win Florida than it is to win Virginia.

All the poll I've seen in Florida seem to favor Romney by a narrow margin.


I agree; Florida hasn't gone back since Nate Silver colored it red. Virginia's flipped a couple times.
 
2012-10-21 12:31:13 PM  

Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'


That would work if the race depended on the outcome of one or two events, but it doesn't, it depends on roughly 50 (I forget how many states can split their EV). Each one of those outcomes is a separate event. Some are certain: Obama will win CA and NY, Romney TX and UT, and some are less so. But the events aren't equally weighted: winning CA and NY mean a hell of a lot more than winning TX.
 
2012-10-21 12:32:22 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: What is really depressing to me is that the bulk of the current wealth inequality in this country, the shift of money into the hands of a very few has happened in my lifetime, in the last 30 years.


IMO because of what you wrote about the banks now just churning money. there is no tangible product. even in the service industry where you don't see the product it's there. the kid handing you your big mac is doing something tangible. a credit default swap adds what of tangible value?
 
2012-10-21 12:32:28 PM  

Dwight_Yeast: Ivo Shandor: 17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'

That would work if the race depended on the outcome of one or two events, but it doesn't, it depends on roughly 50 (I forget how many states can split their EV). Each one of those outcomes is a separate event. Some are certain: Obama will win CA and NY, Romney TX and UT, and some are less so. But the events aren't equally weighted: winning CA and NY mean a hell of a lot more than winning TX.


Only Maine and Nebraska split their EV, I think.
 
2012-10-21 12:32:35 PM  

MechaDupek: You libs scared yet?


You know, this is not the kind of rhetoric that gets looked fondly upon in history books. You don't go around just openly telling your own countrymen to be afraid of you unless you are actively TRYING to get the Villain Edit. Seriously, what was with those black-and-white 'November Is Coming' billboard ads in 2010? Does anyone ever do that and look like the good guys afterwards?
 
2012-10-21 12:33:57 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Dwight_Yeast: I can see Romney taking VA but not FL.

That's odd. Because I think it's more likely for Romney to win Florida than it is to win Virginia.

All the poll I've seen in Florida seem to favor Romney by a narrow margin.


If the Democratic PACs push the "Romney/Ryan want to turn SS into a voucher system" hard in FL, there seems to me a chance Obama might win it. I could see FL coming down to not being called on election night, but I don't think we're looking at a repeat of 2000.

/should have fixed the system at that point.
 
2012-10-21 12:33:58 PM  

Gosling: MechaDupek: You libs scared yet?

You know, this is not the kind of rhetoric that gets looked fondly upon in history books. You don't go around just openly telling your own countrymen to be afraid of you unless you are actively TRYING to get the Villain Edit. Seriously, what was with those black-and-white 'November Is Coming' billboard ads in 2010? Does anyone ever do that and look like the good guys afterwards?


They're fascists.
 
2012-10-21 12:34:20 PM  

The Great EZE: Yeah, if Obama wins Ohio it's all over.


Not if he loses IA and NV. Maybe this is unlikely, but they're small states and could easily be offset by a surprise in WI, PA, or OH.

Thigvald the Big-Balled: Miracles = voter suppression/intimidation, Romney family purchasing voting machines, etc.

Today's GOP is the greatest threat America has ever faced. Do NOT underestimate their ability/willingness to steal this election.


Exactly.
 
2012-10-21 12:36:06 PM  

Lost Thought 00: 2 farking weeks. We just have to survive 2 more farking weeks


I know. Will we be able to "grey out" the politics tab for a couple of days?
 
2012-10-21 12:36:31 PM  

Ivo Shandor: Tor_Eckman: See Silver's numbers posted above. Obama with an almost 70% chance to win and rising.

It's closer than I would like, but barring something really unusual happening Romney would need not one but several miracles to happen to actually pull it off.

Really?

17% - Odds of "winning" a game of Russian roulette
25% - Odds of a flipped coin coming up 'heads' twice in a row
32.1% - Chance of a Romney presidency according to 538
50% - Odds of a single coin flip coming up 'heads'


Here's why I don't like percentage "odds" when predicting an election: odds are for things that depend on pure chance and elections aren't chance. Obama or Romney aren't going to win this election because they got lucky. It'll be because they got the most electoral votes based on 51 smaller elections. And everybody on both sides would do well to remember that. The analysis may get more sophisticated but the fundaments stay the same: turnout and local economy.

I like to use Nate's quantitative numbers, but only so I can make a more accurate qualitative assessment in my head. He says 67.9% odds of an Obama win. I take that to mean that if voter turn out is what we expect it to be and if another October 2008 doesn't happen then Obama should win. And right now neither of those things are expected to happen. It's a more accurate way of thinking and you can leave your 20-sided die in the drawer.
 
2012-10-21 12:38:46 PM  
The media sucks for insisting on treating this as a horse race. On the other hand, this race was always bound to tighten and always bound to be closer than 2008. It actually serves Democrats to perceive this race as tighter than it is because that's the only way they are going to guarantee that they get out the vote to the extent they need. Fear is a powerful motivator.
 
2012-10-21 12:39:02 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: The Great EZE: Yeah, if Obama wins Ohio it's all over.

Not if he loses IA and NV. Maybe this is unlikely, but they're small states and could easily be offset by a surprise in WI, PA, or OH.


True, but at the same time he'll probably win Virginia with a 3rd party spoiler, which would cancel out losing IA/NV or, more likely*, WI. Either way, winning OH is the key.

/* - more likely but still not very likely
 
2012-10-21 12:39:14 PM  
A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.
 
2012-10-21 12:41:12 PM  

smitty04: A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.


Got a citation for this?
 
2012-10-21 12:42:11 PM  

Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.


That's because people would tune in just to hear Sarah Palin talk. And to imagine her naked.
 
2012-10-21 12:42:48 PM  

Cats_Lie: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

That's because people would tune in just to hear Sarah Palin talk. And to imagine her naked.



Nobody wants to imagine Paul Ryan naked.
 
2012-10-21 12:43:01 PM  

smitty04: A huge decline in Democratic registration when compared to four years ago should give even the most sanguine liberals some food for thought.


Well when Republican registrars keep throwing their registrations in the trash, what do you expect?
 
2012-10-21 12:43:04 PM  

Thigvald the Big-Balled: .

Today's GOP is the greatest threat America has ever faced. Do NOT underestimate their ability/willingness to steal this election.


Bears repeating. I can't even believe we still have to be worried about this shiat in the 21st century. "American Exceptionalism" my farking ass! :(
 
2012-10-21 12:43:12 PM  

Curious: IMO because of what you wrote about the banks now just churning money. there is no tangible product. even in the service industry where you don't see the product it's there. the kid handing you your big mac is doing something tangible. a credit default swap adds what of tangible value?


Pretty much. While bankers should always have some power (they can act as a balance, when well-regulated) we need to shift things so that companies that make things and do things return to the fore and are allowed to make and do things, rather than worrying about their stock price and quarterly earnings.

It hit me last night, reading the thread on the voting machines, how dangerous PRIVATE companies have become as well. Some things which should be under public scrutiny and control aren't because the companies that make/do them (build voting machines, for instance) are privately-owned and don't have to report to anyone.
 
2012-10-21 12:43:30 PM  

Cats_Lie: Cats_Lie: Mugato: I don't remember the media pulling this kind of shiat with the '08 race. It was not a close race at all and they didn't pull any shenannegans to convince us that it was. That I can remember anyway, I was sort of drunk that decade.

That's because people would tune in just to hear Sarah Palin talk. And to imagine her naked.


Nobody wants to imagine Paul Ryan naked.


You're doing it right now, aren't you?
 
2012-10-21 12:43:48 PM  

The Great EZE: I like to use Nate's quantitative numbers, but only so I can make a more accurate qualitative assessment in my head. He says 67.9% odds of an Obama win. I take that to mean that if voter turn out is what we expect it to be and if another October 2008 doesn't happen then Obama should win. And right now neither of those things are expected to happen. It's a more accurate way of thinking and you can leave your 20-sided die in the drawer.


I hope you're right, but I take "chance of winning" to mean odds in exactly the coin-flip sense. Yes, the unknowns aren't exactly based on "luck," but they may as well be random since, again, they're unknowns. I assume Nate Silver has translated all of that into coin-flip speak, which is why he presents it as a percentage "chance."
 
2012-10-21 12:46:23 PM  
 
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