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14097 clicks; posted to Main » on 20 Oct 2012 at 6:39 AM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:    more»

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Honest Bender: iron_city_ap: He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color.

Tumunga: you have to keep playing that color

...I weep for the lack of education in this country. :-(

The tote board that shows what has been hit, is one of the most devious and shrewdest things in gambling.

If it shows 5 red, the next ball can be either red, black, or green. There is no mathmatical law that says it has to hit a certian color

Marcus Aurelius: Rule number 1: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 2: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.

This is why I play poker.
How to win at gambling: Learn statistics, open a casino yourself.

Obama4Life: If it shows 5 red, the next ball can be either red, black, or green. There is no mathmatical law that says it has to hit a certian color

The problem is that our brains aren't wired very well for a lot of statistical mathematics. I think most people confuse probability.

Let's say I flip a fair coin 100 times. Well, you create a truth table that contains 2^100 possibilities. Getting 100 heads out of 100 flips is a 1 in 2^100 chance. So we think it's extremely unlikely. Well, it's exactly as likely as any other of the 2^100 potential outcomes.

Where this gets gamblers into trouble is, for example, when they see a streak. 5 heads in a row? Well, there's only a 1 in 64 (2^6) chance of the next flip being heads! I've gotta bet tails! But what they forget is that while 6 heads in a row is a 1 in 64 chance, the result of any individual flip is still 1 in 2.

Our brains are dumb. They think those two statistics are related. They are not. Your brain will tell you they are. They are not.
The Eudaemons did exactly this in the late 70's.

The book The Eudaemonic Pie is a good read about what they did.
 1 vote:

madgonad: See, while you might walk out of a casino with a few hundred dollars twenty times, on the twenty first you might lose \$10k. High chance of small win, but a small chance of a big loss.

If it's good enough for Wall Street...
 1 vote:

See it's like miniature version of the workings of the universe..

???

I get it.
 1 vote:

Tumunga: wildcardjack: To win at roulette own the wheel.

It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet \$5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the \$5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose \$5, bet \$10. Lose \$10, bet \$20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original \$5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

If you do this, you won't lose any money (unless you leave the table on a losing streak) and grind your way to a profit. My wife and I did this in an Indiana casino, and after about 40 minutes, walked away from the table with about \$60 in our pockets at a \$5 minimum table. We did hit one of those losing streaks with a \$160 bet on the table, and I had to make a dash for the ATM, but she hit while I was gone, and the ATM trip was for nothing.

Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.

This is a Martingale strategy. It is designed to part idiots with very large sums of money.

See, while you might walk out of a casino with a few hundred dollars twenty times, on the twenty first you might lose \$10k. High chance of small win, but a small chance of a big loss. And because it takes a lot of time, you would make a lot more just going to work without the risk. Also, you will never win big - ever.
 1 vote:

iron_city_ap: He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color.

Tumunga: you have to keep playing that color

...I weep for the lack of education in this country. :-(
 1 vote:
I've placed a bet 4 times ever at roulette, and won all 4. The key is a well timed bet, or be insanely lucky
 1 vote:

wildcardjack: To win at roulette own the wheel.

It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet \$5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the \$5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose \$5, bet \$10. Lose \$10, bet \$20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original \$5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

If you do this, you won't lose any money (unless you leave the table on a losing streak) and grind your way to a profit. My wife and I did this in an Indiana casino, and after about 40 minutes, walked away from the table with about \$60 in our pockets at a \$5 minimum table. We did hit one of those losing streaks with a \$160 bet on the table, and I had to make a dash for the ATM, but she hit while I was gone, and the ATM trip was for nothing.

Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.
 1 vote:
The only winning move is not to play.
 1 vote:
To win at roulette own the wheel.
 1 vote:

C18H27NO3: The Eudaemons did exactly this in the late 70's.

The book The Eudaemonic Pie is a good read about what they did.

Seriously. Great book.

On a related note: how did this get publised in Chaos of all places? One of the main inventors of chaos theory was one of the Euadaemons. This is basic history for that field. Is this paper's only contribution that they're now doing it with a camera instead of a person clicking? Really? Or have I just been trolled by the Daily Fail?
 1 vote:

Jenna Tellya: I could see this being easier to do on the Money Wheel. No chaotic bouncing, just a straightforward velocity reduction formula. It seems easy enough to determine whether the wheel will stop near the joker or not. That might be enough to overcome the horrible odds that bet offers. Maybe they don't give enough time to calculate and bet after they spin it?

Here's my secret system for betting on the Money Wheel. Always bet on \$1. Nearly half of the wheel is \$1. It's pretty obvious where it's going to land. Although it would be pretty funny if somebody came up with a way to cheat on it since the wheel is usually off away from the rest of the pit and isn't as closely monitored. I imagine most of the cheating is done by old fashioned bet capping and late bets.
 1 vote:
illuminatis
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous

exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.
 1 vote:
First - this isn't even remotely close to a new idea
Second - this is illegal in most countries that allow gambling

It's not even an obscure idea - several cop shows have done episodes around this idea
 1 vote:
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous.
 1 vote:

Metalupis: I seem to recall watching a show on the history channel about cheating in Vegas that talked about some guys who did this years ago, they would press on a switch hidden in one shoe when the ball was passing a certain point and it would calculate likely outcomes and the part in their other shoe would signal them by prodding their foot in a particular pattern

I saw it too. As I recall, the device malfunctioned on 'em once and either did or almost gave 'em away. Also, if I remember correctly, the device basically helped them narrow the wheel down to a 1/8 slice of it where they'd place their bets.
 1 vote:
I seem to recall watching a show on the history channel about cheating in Vegas that talked about some guys who did this years ago, they would press on a switch hidden in one shoe when the ball was passing a certain point and it would calculate likely outcomes and the part in their other shoe would signal them by prodding their foot in a particular pattern
 1 vote:
Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.

And I'm 100% sure the casinos would be totally cool with that.

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