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(Daily Mail)   How to win at roulette - think like a physicist   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 102
    More: Spiffy, University of Western Australia, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, roulette, problem gambling, simple program, expected returns  
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14053 clicks; posted to Main » on 20 Oct 2012 at 6:39 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



102 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-10-19 11:51:08 PM
Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.

And I'm 100% sure the casinos would be totally cool with that.
 
2012-10-19 11:53:39 PM

fusillade762: Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.

And I'm 100% sure the casinos would be totally cool with that.


Sure, just set it up next to the card-counting machine and the loaded craps dice.
 
2012-10-20 12:06:55 AM
I tried that and it didn't work for sh*t

/I swear I followed Miss Cleo's advice to the letter
//and number
 
2012-10-20 12:50:08 AM
How to win at gambling: Learn statistics, open a casino yourself.
 
2012-10-20 01:03:38 AM
Rule number 1: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 2: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.
 
2012-10-20 01:15:58 AM

Marcus Aurelius: Rule number 1: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 2: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.


This is why I play poker.
 
2012-10-20 01:48:11 AM
This sounds totally legit. I'm not worried that the article didn't actually attempt to vet the findings, I'm sure that's just because the "journalist" didn't want to make mad stacks of money.

/and be murdered when he was caught cheating, even though he lost ALL his money.
 
2012-10-20 03:11:01 AM
I seem to recall watching a show on the history channel about cheating in Vegas that talked about some guys who did this years ago, they would press on a switch hidden in one shoe when the ball was passing a certain point and it would calculate likely outcomes and the part in their other shoe would signal them by prodding their foot in a particular pattern
 
2012-10-20 03:37:29 AM
Without the use of electronics, it is called clocking the wheel. Yes, you can win if you memorize the position of the numbers on the wheel, can place your bet after the throw, realize the casino knows you are clocking so they instruct the dealer to vary the spin velocity of both the wheel and the ball, and if the ball doesn't bounce around the rails too much after it falls. I have found the best position to clock is at the top of the table by the 0/00/1/2/3. Also, an older wheel with high rails (the metal that separates the numbers reduces the amount of "bounce" the ball has after it falls.

What makes it fun is that you only have about 15 seconds before the dealer waves off no more bets.

And finally, depending on the casino, they will change dealers after 20 minutes and the replacement can wipe you out if they FARK with you by really slowing up the wheel and/or ball velocity.
 
2012-10-20 03:56:07 AM

EnviroDude: Without the use of electronics, it is called clocking the wheel.


Interesting. I also remember watching a show about some guys that took casinos by just studying wheels for weeks and finding that each wheel had particular tendencies and then betting on those tendencies.
 
2012-10-20 05:36:01 AM

Metalupis: I seem to recall watching a show on the history channel about cheating in Vegas that talked about some guys who did this years ago, they would press on a switch hidden in one shoe when the ball was passing a certain point and it would calculate likely outcomes and the part in their other shoe would signal them by prodding their foot in a particular pattern


I saw it too. As I recall, the device malfunctioned on 'em once and either did or almost gave 'em away. Also, if I remember correctly, the device basically helped them narrow the wheel down to a 1/8 slice of it where they'd place their bets.
 
2012-10-20 05:46:17 AM
Theoretical physicist or applied physicist? Because there's a huge difference, and I can only imagine that trying to put the described method into practice would reveal it.

"How can I keep losing? I have the science."
"Are you assuming that the wheel is perfectly level and the ball is frictionless?"
"Of course!"
 
2012-10-20 06:41:27 AM
This has been done before. You think the casinos aren't wise to it?
 
2012-10-20 06:46:35 AM
i1255.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-20 06:54:34 AM
You forget... I know how to count cards. But Crasino hunks break your bones if you talk with a sass mouth.
i.cdn.turner.com
Watcha waiting for? Let's go gramble!
 
2012-10-20 06:56:40 AM
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous.
 
2012-10-20 07:00:15 AM
Roulette is a fool's tax like the lottery.
 
2012-10-20 07:05:48 AM
The Eudaemons did exactly this in the late 70's.

The book The Eudaemonic Pie is a good read about what they did.
 
2012-10-20 07:16:48 AM
How to win at Roulette - don't play.

FTFA: "it is likely that using such devices would annoy casinos"

Annoy? Really Annoy?

I suppose broken kneecaps could be annoying...
 
2012-10-20 07:19:19 AM
Like all casino games, the odds of winning at roulette are stacked against punters.

I eagerly await Kluwe's response.
 
2012-10-20 07:20:50 AM
First - this isn't even remotely close to a new idea
Second - this is illegal in most countries that allow gambling

It's not even an obscure idea - several cop shows have done episodes around this idea
 
2012-10-20 07:25:13 AM
($winnings X probability of winning) - ($cost to play X probability of losing) = Expected payout.

The math on gambling tells us to find the best odds of winning with the best payout and cheapest buy-in. A negative expected payout means that you'll lose money over time. So if you must play, bet as much as you can on a single game.
 
2012-10-20 07:30:33 AM
Wow. That is possibly the most supidest piece of crap I ever read. Even for the Daily Fail,,, that was a supremely weak effort.

That writer should feel bad.

/'maths'
//awesome
///why don't the English speak English?
 
2012-10-20 07:31:34 AM
It really is vodak for me tonight, but is this any different from the MIT roulette computer?

i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-20 07:38:05 AM
I could see this being easier to do on the Money Wheel. No chaotic bouncing, just a straightforward velocity reduction formula. It seems easy enough to determine whether the wheel will stop near the joker or not. That might be enough to overcome the horrible odds that bet offers. Maybe they don't give enough time to calculate and bet after they spin it?
 
2012-10-20 07:39:14 AM

Fark_Guy_Rob: First - this isn't even remotely close to a new idea
Second - this is illegal in most countries that allow gambling

It's not even an obscure idea - several cop shows have done episodes around this idea


Yeah, and the level their sophistication to narrow to down to less than a quarter of the wheel would require high speed cameras. A payout ratio of 1.18 would mean that you could put equal bets on 9-10 numbers each spin, and it would only very rarely miss those numbers. I'm sure they have an idealized betting strategy where you place optimized bets on the 3-5 most likely numbers. Even trying to calculate that and get the chips on the table would be impossible. In the lab, you can calculate it. In the casino, no chance.
 
2012-10-20 07:48:26 AM
illuminatis
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous

exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.
 
2012-10-20 07:51:51 AM
This is wrong. The casino would go broke and then there would be no casino where you could play roulette.
 
2012-10-20 07:52:05 AM
In a paper published in a recent issue of the journal Chaos, they show that if you know the initial position, velocity and acceleration of the ball you can narrow down where it will end up.

Yeah...same goes for about any object.
 
2012-10-20 07:54:45 AM

Jebus! haven't any of you droolers seen "The Honeymoon Machine" (1961), with Steve McQueen? He plays a US Navy officer who clocks the roulette wheel in a Venice casino and feeds the numbers to one of those new-fangled computer devices offshore with a signal lamp. Mild amusement ensues. A way to piss away a rainy afternoon, while you pick your corns.

In other words, it's been done to death.

 
2012-10-20 07:59:18 AM

Jenna Tellya: I could see this being easier to do on the Money Wheel. No chaotic bouncing, just a straightforward velocity reduction formula. It seems easy enough to determine whether the wheel will stop near the joker or not. That might be enough to overcome the horrible odds that bet offers. Maybe they don't give enough time to calculate and bet after they spin it?


Here's my secret system for betting on the Money Wheel. Always bet on $1. Nearly half of the wheel is $1. It's pretty obvious where it's going to land. Although it would be pretty funny if somebody came up with a way to cheat on it since the wheel is usually off away from the rest of the pit and isn't as closely monitored. I imagine most of the cheating is done by old fashioned bet capping and late bets.
 
2012-10-20 07:59:46 AM

C18H27NO3: The Eudaemons did exactly this in the late 70's.

The book The Eudaemonic Pie is a good read about what they did.


Seriously. Great book.

On a related note: how did this get publised in Chaos of all places? One of the main inventors of chaos theory was one of the Euadaemons. This is basic history for that field. Is this paper's only contribution that they're now doing it with a camera instead of a person clicking? Really? Or have I just been trolled by the Daily Fail?
 
2012-10-20 08:04:14 AM
Just play a block of numbers from the wheel.
 
2012-10-20 08:05:34 AM
Also... to win at Roulette... you just walk over to the Blackjack table and count cards. Easy.
 
2012-10-20 08:09:07 AM
Just the fact that roulette has been a casino game for hundreds of years should tell you something. Casinos would not have roulette wheels if they didn't make them buttloads of cash off every idiot who thought he had a system.
 
2012-10-20 08:28:05 AM
I assume these so-called physicists have heard of chaotic systems and know that without quantum level computation that can update on the fly, actually predicting these things is a waste of time?

/fark all, go do something USEFUL
 
2012-10-20 08:34:47 AM
I've never seen a croupier allow bets after the ball gets to the backtrack.
 
2012-10-20 08:42:25 AM
"Professor Small was able to improve the returns even more using a digital camera and image processor to track the ball. But it is likely that using such devices would annoy casinos".
 
2012-10-20 08:44:03 AM
To win at roulette own the wheel.
 
2012-10-20 08:47:16 AM
Now I just need to find a high-functioning autistic savant who can do physics in his head.
 
2012-10-20 09:01:47 AM
www.starstills.com
 
2012-10-20 09:09:22 AM
A few years back, I watched a friend of mine pay for his entire vegas weekend playing roulette. He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color. If he lost, he would keep doubling the bet until he won.
 
2012-10-20 09:10:32 AM
The only winning move is not to play.
 
2012-10-20 09:18:27 AM

wildcardjack: To win at roulette own the wheel.


It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet $5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the $5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose $5, bet $10. Lose $10, bet $20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original $5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

If you do this, you won't lose any money (unless you leave the table on a losing streak) and grind your way to a profit. My wife and I did this in an Indiana casino, and after about 40 minutes, walked away from the table with about $60 in our pockets at a $5 minimum table. We did hit one of those losing streaks with a $160 bet on the table, and I had to make a dash for the ATM, but she hit while I was gone, and the ATM trip was for nothing.

Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.
 
2012-10-20 09:25:49 AM
Fail. Though I'm sure physics can explain how kneecaps break; can it explain how casinos work?
 
2012-10-20 09:27:23 AM
why are these physicists researching something that has already been done for decades?
 
2012-10-20 09:32:12 AM
The fatal flaw in this is you can't bet after the ball has been released. If they catch you betting after that it won't matter how accurate you machine is, you'll be escorted out of the casino.
 
2012-10-20 09:33:03 AM

iron_city_ap: A few years back, I watched a friend of mine pay for his entire vegas weekend playing roulette. He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color. If he lost, he would keep doubling the bet until he won.


The problems with that: 1) A streak of colors does in no way change the odds of the other color coming up next.Yeah, 2) If you lose say 15 times in a row you must now bet 32768 times the minimum bet and sooner or later you won't have the money to double your bet... Losing that may times in a row is one in 25206, that is, it doesn't happen often, but if it does you're screwed unless you have that money to bet. 3) Say that you DO have the 32768 times the minimum be to bet and you DO win that bet: Congratulations, you have now risked all that money to win ONE minimum bet if you include your previous losses this streak in the calculation of your winnings. (If this confuses you, say you've bet 1+2+4+8 and lost all those times. That's 15 minimum bets. Next bet is 16 minimum bets.)

/Well I never said there would be no math.
 
2012-10-20 09:36:51 AM

Tumunga: My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.


She was mad because he was making fun of you?

ps... it doesn't matter if you change colors... or games for that matter.
 
2012-10-20 09:46:24 AM
I've placed a bet 4 times ever at roulette, and won all 4. The key is a well timed bet, or be insanely lucky
 
2012-10-20 09:51:39 AM

Tumunga: Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.


Everyone else already knew. The casino doesn't mind that sort of system, because it pays out so slowly and poorly, and they only have to bust you once. Hell, you'd probably do better playing blackjack with the same system.
 
2012-10-20 09:53:14 AM
When I play, I always bet on 10 numbers. At least that way I have a 27% that one of the numbers will hit
 
2012-10-20 10:02:59 AM

iron_city_ap: He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color.


Tumunga: you have to keep playing that color


...I weep for the lack of education in this country. :-(
 
2012-10-20 10:05:17 AM
Farking probabilities, how do they work?
 
2012-10-20 10:05:57 AM

Honest Bender: iron_city_ap: He would wait till a streak of colors would pop up (usually 5) then bet on the opposite color.

Tumunga: you have to keep playing that color

...I weep for the lack of education in this country. :-(


The tote board that shows what has been hit, is one of the most devious and shrewdest things in gambling.

If it shows 5 red, the next ball can be either red, black, or green. There is no mathmatical law that says it has to hit a certian color
 
2012-10-20 10:15:38 AM

Obama4Life: If it shows 5 red, the next ball can be either red, black, or green. There is no mathmatical law that says it has to hit a certian color


The problem is that our brains aren't wired very well for a lot of statistical mathematics. I think most people confuse probability.

Let's say I flip a fair coin 100 times. Well, you create a truth table that contains 2^100 possibilities. Getting 100 heads out of 100 flips is a 1 in 2^100 chance. So we think it's extremely unlikely. Well, it's exactly as likely as any other of the 2^100 potential outcomes.

Where this gets gamblers into trouble is, for example, when they see a streak. 5 heads in a row? Well, there's only a 1 in 64 (2^6) chance of the next flip being heads! I've gotta bet tails! But what they forget is that while 6 heads in a row is a 1 in 64 chance, the result of any individual flip is still 1 in 2.

Our brains are dumb. They think those two statistics are related. They are not. Your brain will tell you they are. They are not.
 
2012-10-20 10:25:20 AM

TimeCubeFan: [www.starstills.com image 414x334]


Operator, I need Mr. Happy. Loud.
 
2012-10-20 10:27:16 AM
Roulette is the only game I play in casinos. Only single green wheels (0 only, no 00) Pick any space that covers 1/3 of the black/red spaces, place 2 bets (covering 2/3 the black/red) Once I've lost half of what I came with, I leave. Once I've doubled my money, I leave. The house still has a slight advantage using the above stratego but they can never completely control when I cash out.

Overcoming any urges to continue once you are up is the only advantage any gambler has.
 
2012-10-20 11:02:30 AM
Mrs. Fool and I love to play roulette when we go to a casino. We play slow, near table minimums, and have a loss limit, not a win limit. We have spent hours at a wheel, staying close to what we came in with and getting tons of free drinks. Sometimes we hit our loss limit and walk away. A few times one of us have won big. Once I started with $40, left with over $200 and played for over 5 hours. Yeah, I didn't break the house, but it was an impressive percentage gain.

When I play alone, I hit the craps table. If the table is hot it is really fun. If it isn't, I walk away because I don't want to be 'that guy' on the table playing the Don't Pass line.
 
2012-10-20 11:13:09 AM

Tumunga: wildcardjack: To win at roulette own the wheel.

It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet $5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the $5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose $5, bet $10. Lose $10, bet $20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original $5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

If you do this, you won't lose any money (unless you leave the table on a losing streak) and grind your way to a profit. My wife and I did this in an Indiana casino, and after about 40 minutes, walked away from the table with about $60 in our pockets at a $5 minimum table. We did hit one of those losing streaks with a $160 bet on the table, and I had to make a dash for the ATM, but she hit while I was gone, and the ATM trip was for nothing.

Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.


This is a Martingale strategy. It is designed to part idiots with very large sums of money.

See, while you might walk out of a casino with a few hundred dollars twenty times, on the twenty first you might lose $10k. High chance of small win, but a small chance of a big loss. And because it takes a lot of time, you would make a lot more just going to work without the risk. Also, you will never win big - ever.
 
2012-10-20 11:16:53 AM
www.vegastripping.com

See it's like miniature version of the workings of the universe..

???

www.premiumhollywood.com

I get it.
 
2012-10-20 11:23:11 AM
instead of betting on roulette how about you give me half the money you would have bet and i kick you in the nuts?

ill have some of the yella
 
2012-10-20 11:24:52 AM

madgonad: Tumunga: wildcardjack: To win at roulette own the wheel.

It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet $5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the $5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose $5, bet $10. Lose $10, bet $20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original $5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

If you do this, you won't lose any money (unless you leave the table on a losing streak) and grind your way to a profit. My wife and I did this in an Indiana casino, and after about 40 minutes, walked away from the table with about $60 in our pockets at a $5 minimum table. We did hit one of those losing streaks with a $160 bet on the table, and I had to make a dash for the ATM, but she hit while I was gone, and the ATM trip was for nothing.

Some drunk douche was watching us, and after noticing what we were doing, hollered, "Hey! They got a system going on, look!" My wife gave him a look that I thought was reserved for me if I told her she looked fat in her jeans. He shut up.

This is a Martingale strategy. It is designed to part idiots with very large sums of money.

See, while you might walk out of a casino with a few hundred dollars twenty times, on the twenty first you might lose $10k. High chance of small win, but a small chance of a big loss. And because it takes a lot of time, you would make a lot more just going to work without the risk. Also, you will never win b ...


Of course. It's the nature of gambling. The odds are always going to be stacked against you. no matter what the self-claimed 'experts' state.
 
2012-10-20 11:27:25 AM

Freakin Rican: instead of betting on roulette how about you give me half the money you would have bet and i kick you in the nuts?

ill have some of the yella


Sounds like my father. He would say 'Just take your money and throw it on the fire'
 
2012-10-20 11:35:00 AM

Obama4Life: Freakin Rican: instead of betting on roulette how about you give me half the money you would have bet and i kick you in the nuts?

ill have some of the yella

Sounds like my father. He would say 'Just take your money and throw it on the fire'


You don't know when to quit, do ya Griswold?... Here's an idea: Why don't you give me half the money your were gonna to bet, then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!
 
2012-10-20 11:39:57 AM

wotthefark: Obama4Life: Freakin Rican: instead of betting on roulette how about you give me half the money you would have bet and i kick you in the nuts?

ill have some of the yella

Sounds like my father. He would say 'Just take your money and throw it on the fire'

You don't know when to quit, do ya Griswold?... Here's an idea: Why don't you give me half the money your were gonna to bet, then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!


lol bingo!!

haha then they go and play war and rock, paper scissor. too funny
 
2012-10-20 11:52:44 AM

fusillade762: Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.

And I'm 100% sure the casinos would be totally cool with that.


All they have to do make this useless is to close bets before spinning the wheel.
 
2012-10-20 12:21:57 PM
This article is total crap. And this is why: There is NO WAY to determine where the ball will land because the variable in the equation change every time the ball is rolled. How hard did the dealer roll it? At what point was the wheel in the spin when it was rolled?

Those two alone are enough to say that there is no way to predict where the ball will fall (setting aside the random jumping of the ball once it hits a divider.)

I've actually got a much better equation that actually DOES work - and this is not a joke.

Bet on two thirds of the wheel. That is, there are a couple of bets where you can play 1/3. Play two of them. They pay 3 to 1. So, if you bet $25 each on 2 one third bets, you almost always will win. Yes, one of your $25 bets will lose. But the one that wins will pay you $75.

I've done this. It works. I made like 4 bets in a row, and walked away with a lot more money than I started with.

Yes... There is a 1/3 chance that you will lose (green numbers not withstanding), but the majority of the time you will win.

In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.

But for the record, I only play poker in casinos. I can play for 6 hours, with free drinks, and walk away ahead, every time. Except for that one time in Vegas when I came in 16th place (out of 280), because I got blinded out. The guy at the other table got 15th place and $3000. I'm still a little sore about that one.
 
2012-10-20 12:39:51 PM
Reading this thread makes me wish I was in the casino business.
 
2012-10-20 12:55:10 PM

fusillade762: Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.

And I'm 100% sure the casinos would be totally cool with that.


Really. Should have kept their little invention a secret and published on it *after* they made their millons. O
 
2012-10-20 01:30:24 PM
I deal that game, and of all games the players at this game are on average the dumbest. Or self aware people that realize they don't know how to play blackjack and will settle giving up the 3%
 
2012-10-20 01:31:15 PM

RedPhoenix122: Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.

This is why I play poker.


Say hello to my little friend:

sistemasdecasino.com

I mean, yeah, they don't actually use a physical rake on the poker table but... you gonna get raked. Which you probably knew, but it's no different from losing a rigged no-skill game to the house.

I've only played poker in a casino a few times, and I was the sweatiest, fumbliest n00b at the table each time. I'd fold out of turn and then berate myself under my breath. Highly entertaining, I'm sure. But it was all worth it when I wasn't the guy who won a decent pot on his second or third hand and then freaked out when he realized he wasn't getting 100% of his chips back from the dealer. Thank God for that guy.
 
2012-10-20 01:52:14 PM

durbnpoisn: This article is total crap. And this is why: There is NO WAY to determine where the ball will land because the variable in the equation change every time the ball is rolled. How hard did the dealer roll it? At what point was the wheel in the spin when it was rolled?

Those two alone are enough to say that there is no way to predict where the ball will fall (setting aside the random jumping of the ball once it hits a divider.)

I've actually got a much better equation that actually DOES work - and this is not a joke.

Bet on two thirds of the wheel. That is, there are a couple of bets where you can play 1/3. Play two of them. They pay 3 to 1. So, if you bet $25 each on 2 one third bets, you almost always will win. Yes, one of your $25 bets will lose. But the one that wins will pay you $75.

I've done this. It works. I made like 4 bets in a row, and walked away with a lot more money than I started with.

Yes... There is a 1/3 chance that you will lose (green numbers not withstanding), but the majority of the time you will win.

In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.


You forgot the zeroes.
 
2012-10-20 01:53:44 PM

Millennium: durbnpoisn: This article is total crap. And this is why: There is NO WAY to determine where the ball will land because the variable in the equation change every time the ball is rolled. How hard did the dealer roll it? At what point was the wheel in the spin when it was rolled?

Those two alone are enough to say that there is no way to predict where the ball will fall (setting aside the random jumping of the ball once it hits a divider.)

I've actually got a much better equation that actually DOES work - and this is not a joke.

Bet on two thirds of the wheel. That is, there are a couple of bets where you can play 1/3. Play two of them. They pay 3 to 1. So, if you bet $25 each on 2 one third bets, you almost always will win. Yes, one of your $25 bets will lose. But the one that wins will pay you $75.

I've done this. It works. I made like 4 bets in a row, and walked away with a lot more money than I started with.

Yes... There is a 1/3 chance that you will lose (green numbers not withstanding), but the majority of the time you will win.

In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.

You forgot the zeroes.


No he didn't. The 0/00 are green
 
2012-10-20 01:57:50 PM

Tumunga: It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet $5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the $5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose $5, bet $10. Lose $10, bet $20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original $5 bet, and put it in your pocket.


Here's how I know you're trolling and/or have never actually tried this: roulette tables have minimum and maximum bets, which mean that you can only double down on a losing bet 6 times at most. (Once in a while, 7.) So let's say you've lost 6 bets in a row, meaning you want to bet $10 x 26, or $640. But the table maximum is $500. Now you'll either be down $140 if you win, or down $1140 if you lose. Poof, there goes your system.

Anyone tempted to actually try this in real life should do a quick little experiment. Flip a coin 200 times. (Remember, casinos have 0 and 00 on the wheel--so it's not even as good as a coin flip.) Did it ever come up tails six times in a row? If it did, that's why you'll lose money (potentially a lot of money). If not, put your EIP and I will send you my BIE. I'm a dude, and my tits honestly aren't all that great, but a promise is a promise.

9/10 on the troll, by the way. You never broke character, and some Farker is probably actually going to try your "system."
 
2012-10-20 02:00:35 PM

semiotix: Tumunga: It's pretty easy to win money at the roulette wheel. As long as you're willing to grind it out, and have deep pockets, you'll walk away winning every time. Pick a color, black or red, and for the sake of this tutorial, bet $5. The key is to just play one color, don't change. If your color comes up, take the $5 you won, put it in your pocket, and leave the original bet there on the table. Keep doing this until you lose. Here's where the deep pockets come in. When you lose, you have to double the bet you lost, then play again. Lose $5, bet $10. Lose $10, bet $20. You might hit on a losing streak with the color, but you have to keep playing that color, so doubling your bet every time you lose can start adding up. Once you win one of those big bets, you take all the money off the table, except for the original $5 bet, and put it in your pocket.

Here's how I know you're trolling and/or have never actually tried this: roulette tables have minimum and maximum bets, which mean that you can only double down on a losing bet 6 times at most. (Once in a while, 7.) So let's say you've lost 6 bets in a row, meaning you want to bet $10 x 26, or $640. But the table maximum is $500. Now you'll either be down $140 if you win, or down $1140 if you lose. Poof, there goes your system.

Anyone tempted to actually try this in real life should do a quick little experiment.


Here's a better experiment (for those with an android or iPhone). Just download a roulette game and try it
 
2012-10-20 02:02:29 PM

durbnpoisn: In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.

But for the record, I only play poker in casinos. I can play for 6 hours, with free drinks, and walk away ahead, every time. Except for that one time in Vegas when I came in 16th place (out of 280), because I got blinded out. The guy at the other table got 15th place and $3000. I'm still a little sore about that one.


Sorry, but if you're that bad at math you can't be much of a poker player.

It's impossible to combine -EV bets into +EV ones. There is no such thing is a system. Here's the math. But if you don't believe the math, consider this: casinos will let you bet practically unlimited sums of money on these games. Gamblers have access to the smartest mathemeticians and most powerful computers in the world. If there were a way to beat the casino playing any table game, don't you think you'd see millionaires and billionaires investing their money in gamblers and putting the casinos out of business? Why work your ass off to get a 12% return in the stock market when there's a foolproof edge in Vegas ad you can double your money daily?
 
2012-10-20 02:08:38 PM

starlost: illuminatis
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous

exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.


I have a question for you. It is my theory that a experienced dealer can hit near any number he chooses. Can you do this?
 
2012-10-20 02:15:01 PM

Obama4Life:

Yes... There is a 1/3 chance that you will lose (green numbers not withstanding), but the majority of the time you will win.

In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.


You forgot the zeroes.

No he didn't. The 0/00 are green


The chamber with the bullet notwithstanding, I've got a 100% chance of surviving my game of Russian roulette forever, because notwithstanding the chamber with the bullet, 5 out of 5 chambers are empty.
 
2012-10-20 02:43:02 PM

semiotix: Here's how I know you're trolling and/or have never actually tried this: roulette tables have minimum and maximum bets, which mean that you can only double down on a losing bet 6 times at most. (Once in a while, 7.) So let's say you've lost 6 bets in a row, meaning you want to bet $10 x 26, or $640. But the table maximum is $500. Now you'll either be down $140 if you win, or down $1140 if you lose. Poof, there goes your system.


You can always move to a table with a higher limit, but they're less likely to let you run your "system" there.
 
2012-10-20 02:51:59 PM

madgonad: See, while you might walk out of a casino with a few hundred dollars twenty times, on the twenty first you might lose $10k. High chance of small win, but a small chance of a big loss.


If it's good enough for Wall Street...
 
2012-10-20 03:03:49 PM

CreamFilling: You can always move to a table with a higher limit, but they're less likely to let you run your "system" there.


Wrong. They'll take your "system" there quite happily. No casino has ever, ever, ever turned away someone for playing this way. They simply enforce the table limits.

If moving to a higher-limit table were a way around this problem, why not just set $640 on fire (simulating the hole you got into at the lower table) and start at the higher table?

For that matter, if you had enough money to cover six or seven doublings at the higher limit, what are you doing at the lower limit table in the first place? The Martingale math is equally valid (ahem) no matter what the amounts involved. Why use a "foolproof" system to make $10 at a time when you could be using it to make $50 or $100 or $1000 at a time?

Casinos don't turn people with "systems" away. They love them. If you have enough money and enough faith in your system, they will literally suck your dick. (Or, in any event, send a comped "independent contractor" up to your comped suite to do it.) That more than anything else is proof enough that systems don't work for the geniuses who come up with them.
 
2012-10-20 03:14:55 PM

It is truly awesome to see how many people have a system that will beat the House. That the casinos eek out a profit, hour after hour, 24/7 is a testament to all those Other People who aren't smart, like them.

No wonder we have a Chicago Liar in the White House...

 
2012-10-20 03:30:00 PM

Obama4Life: You forgot the zeroes.

No he didn't. The 0/00 are green


The green numbers don't count in the one-third bets, so those "one-third" bets don't actually have 1/3 odds; they're a little worse. Over time this will get you, and it gets enough people to keep casinos from changing the odds.
 
2012-10-20 04:23:40 PM

semiotix: CreamFilling: You can always move to a table with a higher limit, but they're less likely to let you run your "system" there.

Wrong. They'll take your "system" there quite happily. No casino has ever, ever, ever turned away someone for playing this way. They simply enforce the table limits.

If moving to a higher-limit table were a way around this problem, why not just set $640 on fire (simulating the hole you got into at the lower table) and start at the higher table?

For that matter, if you had enough money to cover six or seven doublings at the higher limit, what are you doing at the lower limit table in the first place? The Martingale math is equally valid (ahem) no matter what the amounts involved. Why use a "foolproof" system to make $10 at a time when you could be using it to make $50 or $100 or $1000 at a time?

Casinos don't turn people with "systems" away. They love them. If you have enough money and enough faith in your system, they will literally suck your dick. (Or, in any event, send a comped "independent contractor" up to your comped suite to do it.) That more than anything else is proof enough that systems don't work for the geniuses who come up with them.


Casinos can turn you away for any reason. And there are plenty of systems out there that can help you beat the casino - you're just limited to a few games. I developed a system in my spare time. Of course it's just a different, and more effective way to count cards.

It all depends on what you call a system. If they think you're counting cards, you'll be thrown out (and perhaps beaten to death). There are systems to cheat at slots, systems to cheat at roulette (like the one the article references) and more. Some require equipment, others require some mental computation. If the casino thinks that you have a chance of beating them at their own game, they will throw you out. If they think your system is some piece of shiat system, then they'll love you more for it.
 
2012-10-20 04:33:38 PM

Marcus Aurelius: Rule number 1: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 2: Never bet against the house.
Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.


How to win at a casino.

1) Budget a specific bankroll as an entertainment expense.

2) Walk away when;
a) Your bankroll is gone.
b) It stops being fun.

/ I didn't say you would make money.
// Why yes, I do work at a casino.
 
2012-10-20 04:36:43 PM

twidgetfitch: Casinos can turn you away for any reason. And there are plenty of systems out there that can help you beat the casino - you're just limited to a few games. I developed a system in my spare time. Of course it's just a different, and more effective way to count cards.

It all depends on what you call a system. If they think you're counting cards, you'll be thrown out (and perhaps beaten to death). There are systems to cheat at slots, systems to cheat at roulette (like the one the article references) and more. Some require equipment, others require some mental computation. If the casino thinks that you have a chance of beating them at their own game, they will throw you out. If they think your system is some piece of shiat system, then they'll love you more for it.


I basically agree, although casinos only kick you out for counting cards if you're in the top 1% of card-counters. Most "card counters" aren't reliable enough at it to worry the casinos, because you need to be absolutely perfect for hours at a time to come out ahead. (And they'll ask you very politely to stop playing blackjack the first time, and usher you over to the roulette wheel with a complimentary drink.) Besides, it's so easy for the casinos to defeat card-counting by messing around with the shoe, and most of them do. The high-bet blackjack tables are the ones that don't use effectively infinite decks, and that's because the casino knows the high-roller "card-counters" are going to bleed money like stuck pigs. The few who consistently don't are given that polite brushoff and put on The List.

Less "noble" forms of cheating like farking with the slot machines, hiding a computer in your shoe, etc., yeah, that's a beating.
 
2012-10-20 04:44:00 PM

EnviroDude: starlost: illuminatis
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous

exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.

I have a question for you. It is my theory that a experienced dealer can hit near any number he chooses. Can you do this?


I've seen it done. A pit boss at our place was showing off on a dead table one night. Standing on the players' side of the table with his wrist cocked backwards to spin the ball he hit '0' three times in a row. That is the type of person casinos hire to watch the dealers and players.
 
2012-10-20 04:58:15 PM

starlost:
exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.


SO MUCH THIS!!!

It's called 'sectioning.' If a dealer doesn't vary his spin and wheel speed he will start hitting the same 1/3 or 1/4 of the wheel regularly. I wouldn't call it cheating and you don't even need to know all the math to make money. The casinos hand out scorecards with a picture of the wheel on them. If you see a player winning big who is using a score card just start betting on top of his numbers.

/ The players hate me. I'm a n00b roulette dealer. My spin is very random because I suck at it and couldn't be consistent if I tried.
 
2012-10-20 05:44:14 PM
Blackjack actually is the only game you want to play against the house. Alone, at about 9:30 on a Tuesday morning with the dealer who just lost her job as a day check stripper and nobody else. The odds alone is 50.4 to the player. Once you throw in more people, it just drops everyone's odds.
 
2012-10-20 05:47:16 PM
Did a bunch of people from the politics tab come to this thread or something?

Some epic stupidity on display.
 
2012-10-20 05:52:32 PM

Benni K Rok: Blackjack actually is the only game you want to play against the house. Alone, at about 9:30 on a Tuesday morning with the dealer who just lost her job as a day check stripper and nobody else. The odds alone is 50.4 to the player. Once you throw in more people, it just drops everyone's odds.


What?!?! Where the hell did you hear that?
 
2012-10-20 08:57:49 PM

dennysgod: The fatal flaw in this is you can't bet after the ball has been released. If they catch you betting after that it won't matter how accurate you machine is, you'll be escorted out of the casino.


See, that's what I thought. My first reaction was "who gives a shiat?" because you can't bet once the ball is rolling. So what good is figuring out where it's going to land if you have to bet before the ball is in play?
 
2012-10-20 09:15:02 PM

Lsherm: dennysgod: The fatal flaw in this is you can't bet after the ball has been released. If they catch you betting after that it won't matter how accurate you machine is, you'll be escorted out of the casino.

See, that's what I thought. My first reaction was "who gives a shiat?" because you can't bet once the ball is rolling. So what good is figuring out where it's going to land if you have to bet before the ball is in play?


Yes you can. The croupier only waves off bets as the ball drops into the number dealie part on the wheel... you can bet for awhile as the ball is making laps around the wheel however.
 
2012-10-20 09:16:46 PM

Pray 4 Mojo: Benni K Rok: Blackjack actually is the only game you want to play against the house. Alone, at about 9:30 on a Tuesday morning with the dealer who just lost her job as a day check stripper and nobody else. The odds alone is 50.4 to the player. Once you throw in more people, it just drops everyone's odds.

What?!?! Where the hell did you hear that?


The odds are most likely bull, but playing with a new dealer is always a good idea as long as you are sober enough to keep them honest. New dealers make the damnedest mistakes, paying when they shouldn't, standing when they shouldn't, and hitting when they shouldn't. If they screw up in your favor take the money, if against you point it out to them, and the pit boss if you have to. Also sitting in the last seat is also a good idea. An amazing number of new dealers flash thier hole card.

By the way, you will never see a new dealer on the strip. You have to play on Fremont street or off strip in Vegas. Even then off hours is your best bet. It also only works with relatively small bets. If you bet over 100 the pit boss will hover over you like a helicopter, or just switch out the dealer.
 
2012-10-20 09:48:52 PM

HK-MP5-SD: Pray 4 Mojo: Benni K Rok: Blackjack actually is the only game you want to play against the house. Alone, at about 9:30 on a Tuesday morning with the dealer who just lost her job as a day check stripper and nobody else. The odds alone is 50.4 to the player. Once you throw in more people, it just drops everyone's odds.

What?!?! Where the hell did you hear that?

The odds are most likely bull, but playing with a new dealer is always a good idea as long as you are sober enough to keep them honest. New dealers make the damnedest mistakes, paying when they shouldn't, standing when they shouldn't, and hitting when they shouldn't. If they screw up in your favor take the money, if against you point it out to them, and the pit boss if you have to. Also sitting in the last seat is also a good idea. An amazing number of new dealers flash thier hole card.

By the way, you will never see a new dealer on the strip. You have to play on Fremont street or off strip in Vegas. Even then off hours is your best bet. It also only works with relatively small bets. If you bet over 100 the pit boss will hover over you like a helicopter, or just switch out the dealer.


Agree on all. I'm a "VIP" at The Plaza... doesn't take much to get a host there... and even with the remodel it's still kind of a dump. However... they hire dealers right out of school and they are easy to take advantage of... just watch your payouts. Plus... they are so happy to have the action that the pit bosses will occasionally stand right there over my shoulder watching me count. Just don't hit 'em too hard and be quiet about it. I take a couple grand out of there every trip sine they re-opened.... love that place. Of course... eventually... they'll get most of it back one of these weekends.
 
2012-10-21 12:15:19 AM

durbnpoisn: I've actually got a much better equation that actually DOES work - and this is not a joke.

Bet on two thirds of the wheel. That is, there are a couple of bets where you can play 1/3. Play two of them. They pay 3 to 1. So, if you bet $25 each on 2 one third bets, you almost always will win. Yes, one of your $25 bets will lose. But the one that wins will pay you $75.

I've done this. It works. I made like 4 bets in a row, and walked away with a lot more money than I started with.

Yes... There is a 1/3 chance that you will lose (green numbers not withstanding), but the majority of the time you will win.

In my view, roulette is the only game in the casino where there are odds in your favor, and I just told them to you.


So, you'll bet two to win three, and win two of every three bets? Green not withstanding, your odds are dead even. Those little green guys are why casinos can afford to keep the bright shiny lights on all day and night...
 
2012-10-21 05:07:36 AM
"According to the new research, knowing where the ball begins to bounce is key to narrowing down which of the 36 slots it will eventually come to rest in."

Yeeahh... the problem is knowing where that is before placing your bet.


Dead for Tax Reasons: I've placed a bet 4 times ever at roulette, and won all 4. The key is a well timed bet, or be insanely lucky


FTFY.
 
2012-10-21 11:32:09 AM

semiotix: RedPhoenix122: Rule number 3: Never bet against the house.

This is why I play poker.

Say hello to my little friend:

[sistemasdecasino.com image 348x350]

I mean, yeah, they don't actually use a physical rake on the poker table but... you gonna get raked. Which you probably knew, but it's no different from losing a rigged no-skill game to the house.

I've only played poker in a casino a few times, and I was the sweatiest, fumbliest n00b at the table each time. I'd fold out of turn and then berate myself under my breath. Highly entertaining, I'm sure. But it was all worth it when I wasn't the guy who won a decent pot on his second or third hand and then freaked out when he realized he wasn't getting 100% of his chips back from the dealer. Thank God for that guy.


It appears you don't understand the principle behind this. The winner pays a rake in return for table space, security, a fair game, a dealer, etc...

Winning players do not look at this as a problem, it's a benefit. Losing players get upset about the rake fee on the pots they win when it's really the case the rake doesn't matter for them, they're losers and just losing 5% faster than they would otherwise.
 
2012-10-21 12:41:06 PM
basementrejects.com
There's one other way..
 
2012-10-21 08:51:03 PM

Fark Master Flex: EnviroDude: starlost: illuminatis
Croupier for 2 years . No way this could work in a casino. As a dealer eveytime I spin the wheel I vary the wheel speed and also the amount of power applied to the ball. Also the click of the finger with which the dealer releases the ball apply varying degrees of spin. All of these factors would take a very sophisticated computer, I imagine, to accurately measure. You would also need to be pretty close to the wheel to make any measurement, which would be rather conspicuous

exactly. and i've read a good croupier can put the ball in the same 1/8 pie wedge on the wheel. so varying speed like you suggest beats the cheaters unless the cheaters find a lazy croupier who always does it the same way. and if a croupier tries to cheat and throw it in the same spot every time the casino should notice he is aiming for a particular bump thingy on the bowl and spinning wheel the same strength every time.

I have a question for you. It is my theory that a experienced dealer can hit near any number he chooses. Can you do this?

I've seen it done. A pit boss at our place was showing off on a dead table one night. Standing on the players' side of the table with his wrist cocked backwards to spin the ball he hit '0' three times in a row. That is the type of person casinos hire to watch the dealers and players.


I figured as much. Best luck at being a dealer.

/a funny story about a player I saw once

So this guy walks up to the table and starts pulling stacks of $100 chips out of his pocket playing the inside and the outsides. He missed like 10 numbers but was breaking even on the outsides. Finally, he hit a number straight up and the outsides too. The boss came over and showed him the payout limit sign by the wheel and didn't pay him his entire winnings.

I chimed in that they were taking his money when he lost, and that he should have been paid for his winnings.

Anyway, they stuck to their guns and stiffed him out of thousands.

It was funny!
 
2012-10-22 03:49:09 PM

EnviroDude: The boss came over and showed him the payout limit sign by the wheel and didn't pay him his entire winnings.


WTF? A payout limit? Why? Why allow people to bet an amount that could generate a win larger than they are willing to pay out? Why not just settle with a bet maximum?
 
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