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(The Daily Caller)   Nate Silver may be predicting an Obama victory, but if Romney is about to win, Silver can adjust his numbers at the last moment and claim he was right, says guy who has no idea how Nate Silver works   (dailycaller.com) divider line 229
    More: Amusing, obama  
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3996 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2012 at 3:33 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



229 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-10-19 02:36:23 PM  
The author took a beating in the comments.
 
2012-10-19 02:45:04 PM  
memedepot.com

Polls do not work that way!
 
2012-10-19 02:46:55 PM  
We should point and laugh at the author of this 'article'.
 
2012-10-19 02:48:28 PM  
This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.  
 
2012-10-19 02:49:42 PM  

James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.


And reality!

Don't forget their fight against reality.
 
2012-10-19 02:50:16 PM  

James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.


I would support a project that would create a virtual reality for right wingers, like The Matrix, where they could play out their fantasies without anyone getting hurt.
 
2012-10-19 02:58:56 PM  
It could be that he is just frankly smarter than all the other pollsters, pundits and predictors.

This.
 
2012-10-19 03:03:04 PM  

James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.


So what's next? I don't know of much else they can vilify or claim as a left wing conspiracy.
 
2012-10-19 03:05:19 PM  

xsive: James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.

So what's next? I don't know of much else they can vilify or claim as a left wing conspiracy.


Vote counters, the electoral college, maybe Cheif Justice Roberts for swearing Obama in?
 
2012-10-19 03:06:34 PM  
Is the author Scott Rasmussen?
 
2012-10-19 03:07:12 PM  

xsive: So what's next? I don't know of much else they can vilify or claim as a left wing conspiracy.


If Obama wins? The result of the election itself.
 
2012-10-19 03:08:24 PM  
Maybe he just got lucky last time?

Or maybe he didn't?

Or maybe it's wishful thinking?

Or maybe it isn't?

See how that works?
 
2012-10-19 03:09:27 PM  

The surest sign that you're a hack is that you think everyone else is a hack.

- Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 19, 2012



Haha suck it.
 
2012-10-19 03:10:03 PM  
I'm going to start my own magazine about right-wing reactions to reality. I'll call it Whine Spectator.
 
2012-10-19 03:15:42 PM  

doyner: I'm going to start my own magazine about right-wing reactions to reality. I'll call it Whine Spectator.


i love it
 
2012-10-19 03:16:24 PM  
But empirical evidence suggests the race is actually close. At the time of this writing, Real Clear Politics poll average has Romney up .1 percent.)

Really... do we need to keep going over how national polls have nothing to do with whether a presidential race is "close" in how the E.V. will fall... which is exactly what Nate is predicting with Obama being a 70% favorite.

If you look at his P.V. projection, right now Obama is only ahead by 1.5%, not really much different than RCP.

Oh, and lets look at RCP "No Toss Up States Map":

Link

OMG, Obama still wins, RCP must be in on it too!
 
2012-10-19 03:16:26 PM  
There's at least one comment like this in every 538 article. People have to be reminded repeatedly that Silver uses a model specifically so his own biases are removed from his forecasts. And his predictions have closely matched other similar models in this race so far.
 
2012-10-19 03:17:47 PM  

dletter: But empirical evidence suggests the race is actually close. At the time of this writing, Real Clear Politics poll average has Romney up .1 percent.)

Really... do we need to keep going over how national polls have nothing to do with whether a presidential race is "close" in how the E.V. will fall... which is exactly what Nate is predicting with Obama being a 70% favorite.



Yeah. He needs to look up the term "electoral firewall."
 
2012-10-19 03:19:39 PM  
If you had a book and you only started taking election bets on October 1st, your line would be Romney favored by 8 to 1.

huh?
 
2012-10-19 03:24:35 PM  

DamnYankees: If you had a book and you only started taking election bets on October 1st, your line would be Romney favored by 8 to 1.

huh?


What he's saying is he's a terrible bookie.  Or the best kind of bookie, depending.
 
2012-10-19 03:25:42 PM  
encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com

Nate's methods of betting weren't scientific, but they worked. When he won, he collected. When he lost, he told the Right Wing to go fark themselves.
 
2012-10-19 03:38:32 PM  
fta But the race changed dramatically, and my guess is that, right now, it's probably a 50-50 proposition.

Your guess is based on..... ?
 
2012-10-19 03:39:33 PM  

FlashHarry: doyner: I'm going to start my own magazine about right-wing reactions to reality. I'll call it Whine Spectator.

i love it


Even better, "The Whine Advocate."

You see, back in the 80s there was this guy that would write for "The Wine Advocate" who said he could predict the price for Bordeaux by knowing winter rainfall, average season growing temperature, and harvest rainfall. (quality = 12.145 + .00117 winter rainfall + .0614 temp - .00386 harvest rain). Link

He came up with the figure by doing statistical regression on data from previous years - not unlike Silver's work on Baseball and elections. FYI, Bordeaux takes 3 years to ferment, age and bottle, so knowing how good a years crop will turn out, 3 years before it's ready, was useful for wine investors.

They wine pundits basically called him a quack, but he ended being pretty accurate. Read "Super Crunchers" to learn more.
 
2012-10-19 03:40:09 PM  
Still, I do wonder if Silver is confident enough in his models that he would be willing to put some real skin in the game.

If only there were some way to show that those with skin in the game continue to favor Obama to win.

Intrade
 
2012-10-19 03:41:26 PM  
If Silver was showing Romney winning 70-30 they would be citing him every 30 seconds and saying what a great statistician he is.
 
2012-10-19 03:41:26 PM  
Waaaa!! Math's not fair! Waaaaaa!
 
2012-10-19 03:41:52 PM  
Is there any stupider kind if stupid than the kind that thinks it knows well exactly that which it doesn't understand at all?
 
2012-10-19 03:42:23 PM  
If you believe that the polls are meaningless bullshiat then this should negate any reason to talk about them.
 
2012-10-19 03:42:31 PM  

Super Chronic: Still, I do wonder if Silver is confident enough in his models that he would be willing to put some real skin in the game.

If only there were some way to show that those with skin in the game continue to favor Obama to win.

Intrade


And this contest... http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/
 
2012-10-19 03:42:54 PM  

(Trust me 538 fans, if Malkin's minions didn't bother me, Nate's nerds are hardly a challenge...)

- Matt K. Lewis (@mattklewis) October 19, 2012
 
2012-10-19 03:44:46 PM  

Notabunny: fta But the race changed dramatically, and my guess is that, right now, it's probably a 50-50 proposition.

Your guess is based on..... ?


His gut. And his gut is usually accurate, give or take about 83%.
 
2012-10-19 03:46:25 PM  

dletter: Super Chronic: Still, I do wonder if Silver is confident enough in his models that he would be willing to put some real skin in the game.

If only there were some way to show that those with skin in the game continue to favor Obama to win.

Intrade

And this contest... http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/


IIRC, Nate did have a small bet with a fellow poll watcher in the 08 campaign. I think it had to do with the final margins in specific states, and I think Nate won that one too.
 
2012-10-19 03:46:42 PM  
Still one of my favorite charts.

Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2011
 
2012-10-19 03:46:50 PM  
THIS IS EXPRESSLY FORBIDDEN IN NATE'S USER MANUAL
 
2012-10-19 03:47:31 PM  
Author of TFA:

0-media-cdn.foolz.us
 
2012-10-19 03:47:34 PM  
Still, I do wonder if Silver is confident enough in his models that he would be willing to put some real skin in the game.

He earns his livelihood through his predictions and his blog along with books published on the subject. The writer of this "article" must have a different definition of "real skin" than I do.
 
ecl
2012-10-19 03:47:36 PM  

James!: xsive: James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.

So what's next? I don't know of much else they can vilify or claim as a left wing conspiracy.

Vote counters, the electoral college, maybe Cheif Justice Roberts for swearing Obama in?

 
g
 
2012-10-19 03:48:03 PM  
Can I beg a favour from the fark photoshoppers?

i.imgur.com

Can you change that man's head to Romney please? ;)
 
2012-10-19 03:48:30 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: There's at least one comment like this in every 538 article. People have to be reminded repeatedly that Silver uses a model specifically so his own biases are removed from his forecasts. And his predictions have closely matched other similar models in this race so far.


No shat. Human intuition is absolutely worthless.
 
2012-10-19 03:48:47 PM  

doyner: I'm going to start my own magazine about right-wing reactions to reality. I'll call it Whine Spectator.


Funny/Smart
 
ecl
2012-10-19 03:49:01 PM  

ecl: James!: xsive: James!: This year republicans have been fighting the moderators, the pollsters and the fact-checkers.

So what's next? I don't know of much else they can vilify or claim as a left wing conspiracy.

Vote counters, the electoral college, maybe Cheif Justice Roberts for swearing Obama in? 


www.globalnerdy.com
 
2012-10-19 03:49:47 PM  
The weather forecaster may be predicting rain based on all those computer models, but if it turns sunny he can adjust his numbers at the last minute and claim he was right.
 
2012-10-19 03:49:47 PM  
projector.jpg
 
2012-10-19 03:50:59 PM  

Super Chronic: Still, I do wonder if Silver is confident enough in his models that he would be willing to put some real skin in the game.

If only there were some way to show that those with skin in the game continue to favor Obama to win.

Intrade


That and given that Silver's job is based on the accuracy of his models, he has lots of skin in the game. If 538 botches this election, he probably won't be paid by the NYT in 2013.He's not a pundit who gets to be wrong 9 times out of 10. Or Dick Morris who gets paid to be wrong all the time.
 
ecl
2012-10-19 03:52:53 PM  

JerseyTim: (Trust me 538 fans, if Malkin's minions didn't bother me, Nate's nerds are hardly a challenge...)- Matt K. Lewis (@mattklewis) October 19, 2012


I'd like for him to come here to see himself get raped.
 
2012-10-19 03:52:56 PM  
Fishing for clicks by using Silver's name as bait because he's not original enough to come up with his own shiat. And it's working.

All completely predictable.
 
2012-10-19 03:53:44 PM  

the biggest redneck here: Fishing for clicks by using Silver's name as bait because he's not original enough to come up with his own shiat. And it's working.

All completely predictable.


Don't worry, Nate took it into account when creating his model.
 
2012-10-19 03:53:51 PM  
Nate's already on the LOPCATGOPATA right
 
2012-10-19 03:54:27 PM  
This is the same site that said Romney being behind in the polls is just a way for god to show a miracle when Romney wins.

This idiocy is tame in comparison.
 
2012-10-19 03:54:49 PM  

CPennypacker: Nate's already on the LOPCATGOPATA right


Depends on the outcome of the election. ;)
 
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