Do you have adblock enabled?
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(The New York Times)   You know that 7 point Gallup Poll lead and how Romney's numbers holding post debate? Yeah... about that Bonus: Apparently, Rhodes Island's the rubberiest state   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 266
    More: Followup, Gallup  
•       •       •

6834 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2012 at 10:22 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



266 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | » | Last | Show all
 
2012-10-19 08:24:27 AM  
"YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.
 
2012-10-19 08:49:44 AM  

jake_lex: "YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.


Go and use Private Browsing Mode in Chrome or Firefox.
 
2012-10-19 09:33:38 AM  

RexTalionis: jake_lex: "YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.

Go and use Private Browsing Mode in Chrome or Firefox.


Yeah... as much as people say "fark your paywall NYT".... is it a pretty crappy paywall that operates solely via javascript.... if you turn JS/cookies off for the page, you can read as much as you want.
 
2012-10-19 09:39:16 AM  
I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.
 
2012-10-19 10:23:40 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.


EXCELLENT state polls. Shoot. Up 8 in Iowa, up 6 in Wisconsin.
 
2012-10-19 10:24:34 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.


Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.
 
2012-10-19 10:24:41 AM  
...and up 5 in Colorado.
 
2012-10-19 10:26:14 AM  

snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.


I'm efficient at spreading my socialist claptrap. And you can put that in your Jazzy and take it to the state fair.
 
2012-10-19 10:26:34 AM  
Let's argue about polls again. Yah!
 
2012-10-19 10:28:12 AM  
Bu-bu-bu 14 DAYS!
 
2012-10-19 10:30:04 AM  
whatistheexcel.com
"Whut'th thith ah heeeeyuh bout the thun of a plummah bein' givin hith own ah-land, if yoo wi-yaaaalll?"
 
2012-10-19 10:30:30 AM  

hillbillypharmacist: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

EXCELLENT state polls. Shoot. Up 8 in Iowa, up 6 in Wisconsin.


NBC/Marist polls, which have been heavily weighted towards Obama this whole cycle. But hey, cherry pick those polls if that makes you feel better.

Nate Silver is right about Gallup though - unless they are picking up a trend that no one else is seeing, there's no way that Romney has that big of a lead. And the chances that this Gallup survey is anything but an outlier are pretty damn slim.

Still, Obama won in 2008 because he got a massive amount of Democratic turnout and won independents by 8%. In 2012, Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll, and the turnout among Democrats is not going to hit 2008 levels. So while Obama still has a narrow advantage, it's a damn slim one.
 
2012-10-19 10:30:55 AM  
If you unskew the polls, it clearly shows an average +1776 lead for Romney, which is the highest patriotic number after 4, 7, and potato. Obama's only leading in the Libtards And Other Assorted Deadbeats poll, with a +666 lead. You do the math. Study it out.
 
2012-10-19 10:34:47 AM  

snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.


If you think it's in a polester's best interests to not reflect reality (you know, predict something accurately) then you are an idiot, plain and simple.
 
2012-10-19 10:35:12 AM  

WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll


Any evidence of this?
 
2012-10-19 10:35:41 AM  

Tremolo: snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.

If you think it's in a polester's best interests to not reflect reality (you know, predict something accurately) then you are an idiot, plain and simple.


He probably thinks Dick Morris is a "accurate" by his standards.
 
2012-10-19 10:36:19 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll

Any evidence of this?


He probably thinks Dick Morris is "accurate" by his standards.

/damn not clicking preview
 
2012-10-19 10:37:51 AM  

jake_lex: "YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.


I actually gave in and subscribed. It was only $1 and I don't know about you but I need my 538 for the next few weeks.
 
2012-10-19 10:37:58 AM  
img.makeupalley.com
 
2012-10-19 10:40:57 AM  

hillbillypharmacist: snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.

I'm efficient at spreading my socialist claptrap. And you can put that in your Jazzy and take it to the state fair.



encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com

What do video games have to do with this?
 
2012-10-19 10:41:09 AM  
Obama steady at 2/5 from
William Hill and Romney at 2-1 since Wednesday.
 
2012-10-19 10:41:18 AM  
Ha-ha!

I knew adding that comment about Rhodes Island being rubbery would finally give me the greenlight I'd been yearning for!

/subby
//my last greenlight was about Armond White ruining the 100% rating at RT for Toy Story 3.
 
2012-10-19 10:42:19 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll

Any evidence of this?


The statisticals, and furthermore.
 
2012-10-19 10:43:21 AM  

jake_lex: "YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.


Or, as someone kindly pointed out to me on one of these threads, just delete everything in the URL starting with ?gwh= and all is well.
 
2012-10-19 10:44:11 AM  
Early voting must screw with Gallops likely voter model -- if someone has already voted, they're no longer a likely voter, right?
 
2012-10-19 10:44:24 AM  

Tremolo: snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.

If you think it's in a polester's best interests to not reflect reality (you know, predict something accurately) then you are an idiot, plain and simple.


Nate's not a pollster. He's a statistician. He's a complete nerd, looking to make a name for himself by showing he has a predictive model that is more accurate at predicting an election than any other model. That's it. If his model is not accurate because he fudged numbers to support one candidate over another, he negates his entire reason for creating the model. Last election, his model correctly predicted the results of 49 out of 50 state presidential results, only missing Indiana by giving it to McCain. If he has similar results this cycle, his name will go down in history, the history of statisticians. Sure, not that big a deal for normal people, but for a wonk like Silver, it's like winning the Indianapolis 500.

But, I think we just got trolled.
 
2012-10-19 10:44:48 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll

Any evidence of this?


Self-identified independents - you know, like Fark Independents.
 
2012-10-19 10:45:36 AM  
This is why Obama needs to destroy Romney Monday. Debates do matter, and it's not only going to affect the race, but also the House and Senate as well. Obama really screwed the pooch in the first debate. No, he wasn't playing the long game, he wasn't doing rope-a-dope, he completely underestimated the voting public's susceptibility to BS. He thought the public would be swayed by sound, reasoned argument. He apparently forgot that more people turned in to Honey Boo-Boo than the RNC.

This is typical of him, I'd say it's his fatal flaw. We saw the same thing during the health-care idiocy. Obama figured that out in the second debate and I hope he can bring it for the finishing move in round 3.
 
2012-10-19 10:46:22 AM  
Have you seen the questions Gallup uses to determine likely voters? Yeah, there's a reason they become an outlier when they switch to likely voters.
 
2012-10-19 10:46:53 AM  
tl;dr - A single measurement not in line with the other measurements is likely to be mistaken.

// Nate Romero reporting on the fivethirtypotato blog
// a "blog" being a "weblog", where people of varying levels of fame attempt to out-shout each other on the internet, with varying degrees of success
 
2012-10-19 10:47:10 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll

Any evidence of this?


The polls, man, the polls..
 
2012-10-19 10:47:31 AM  

snowshovel:

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.


Sweet Jumpin' Jebus....My frikkin' ignore list is gonna crash the Fark servers if this continues.
 
2012-10-19 10:48:32 AM  

snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.


It's funny, when democrats are loosing we say, "This is bad."

When republicans are loosing they say, "You're fixing the numbers!"

Suck it up and admit that your side needs to work harder and that Romney's last debate performance wasn't stellar. We did that after the first debate, you should too.
 
2012-10-19 10:49:05 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney is winning the independent vote in every single poll

Any evidence of this?


That's a question with a very obvious answer - because most of the polls publish their cross-tabs. (Gallup and UPI do not.)

And here's what you get in terms of the independent vote:

Rasmussen - R+9
PPP/Daily Kos R+14 (!)
PPP Tracking R+5
Ipsos/Reuters R+1
IBD/TIPP R+11 (!)
ARG R+14 (!)
SurveyUSA R+3

Even the polls showing Obama with a lead have Romney winning the independent vote. So the race ultimately comes out to turnout: if the Democrats turn out in 2008 numbers, Obama will definitely win. If Republicans turn out in 2010 numbers, Romney will likely win. If it's more along the D+3 historical average, it's going to be a tossup.

My guess is that it will be more like the D+3 historical average, which means that the popular vote is going to be close either way. But that's assuming a lot - if Romney wins independents by a double-digit margin, even strong D turnout isn't going to be enough for Obama to win. Remember, Obama won independents by 8 in 2008, which gave him a huge win in combination with D turnout that year. This year is going to be very different.
 
2012-10-19 10:49:56 AM  
So are we back to polls not mattering?
 
2012-10-19 10:49:57 AM  

aedude01: snowshovel: cameroncrazy1984: I see that the Nov. 6 forecast has gone back up over 70% again. Today's should be even better. Obama got some excellent state polls yesterday.

Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.

It's funny, when democrats are loosing we say, "This is bad."

When republicans are loosing they say, "You're fixing the numbers!"

Suck it up and admit that your side needs to work harder and that Romney's last debate performance wasn't stellar. We did that after the first debate, you should too.


Reflection, humility, reality. Three words not in the Conservopedia if you know what I mean.
 
2012-10-19 10:50:16 AM  

thornhill: Early voting must screw with Gallops likely voter model -- if someone has already voted, they're no longer a likely voter, right?


No, Gallup asks a bunch of questions (7, if I recall) and then score people on a range from 0-7 with 7 being the most likely to vote. If someone has already voted, their score is weighted to 7.
 
2012-10-19 10:51:38 AM  

epocalypse: Ha-ha!

I knew adding that comment about Rhodes Island being rubbery would finally give me the greenlight I'd been yearning for!

/subby
//my last greenlight was about Armond White ruining the 100% rating at RT for Toy Story 3.


You should strive for a greenlight that spells the name of our state correctly you sob!

RHODE ISLAND

But I'd expect no less out of someone from New Amsterdam.....
 
2012-10-19 10:52:53 AM  
1. Thought given to election (quite a lot, some)
This eliminates 97% of the country

2. Know where people in neighborhood go to vote (yes)
You can look this up 5 minutes before you leave your house.

3. Voted in election precinct before (yes)
Eliminates first time voters

4. How often vote (always, nearly always)
Eliminates first time voters

5. Plan to vote in 2012 election (yes)
One of two questions that matters

6. Likelihood of voting on a 10-point scale (7-10)
Other of two questions that matters

7. Voted in last presidential election (yes)
Eliminates first time voters
 
2012-10-19 10:53:21 AM  

soporific: This is why Obama needs to destroy Romney Monday. Debates do matter, and it's not only going to affect the race, but also the House and Senate as well. Obama really screwed the pooch in the first debate. No, he wasn't playing the long game, he wasn't doing rope-a-dope, he completely underestimated the voting public's susceptibility to BS. He thought the public would be swayed by sound, reasoned argument. He apparently forgot that more people turned in to Honey Boo-Boo than the RNC.

This is typical of him, I'd say it's his fatal flaw. We saw the same thing during the health-care idiocy. Obama figured that out in the second debate and I hope he can bring it for the finishing move in round 3.


I don't think Obama will destroy Romney. There are rarely screw-ups to the degree of Romney's Libya fiasco. And with all of the new stuff coming out about Libya, Obama is going to get grilled all over again for it. Romney knows that he needs to be more cautious.

Romney is also going to acuse Obama for making huge cuts to defense, forcing Obama to explain sequestration which is no easy task.

Bottom line: Mitt will do a good job of making himself out to be a hawk who will stand up to our enemies.

Obama needs to keep reminding people that if anyone doubts his commitment to American security, go talk to OBL, and scare people into thinking that Romney wants to take us to war.
 
2012-10-19 10:53:57 AM  

CPennypacker: 7. Voted in last presidential election (yes)
Eliminates first time voters


The scale is reweighted if you're between the ages of 18-21.
 
2012-10-19 10:54:55 AM  

RexTalionis: CPennypacker: 7. Voted in last presidential election (yes)
Eliminates first time voters

The scale is reweighted if you're between the ages of 18-21.


What if you just didn't care before but now realize that Romney's plan is to burn down the country and loot its corpse?
 
2012-10-19 10:55:54 AM  

CPennypacker: RexTalionis: CPennypacker: 7. Voted in last presidential election (yes)
Eliminates first time voters

The scale is reweighted if you're between the ages of 18-21.

What if you just didn't care before but now realize that Romney's plan is to burn down the country and loot its corpse?


No, then you'd get a point off for it.
 
2012-10-19 10:56:15 AM  

LordJiro: So are we back to polls not mattering?


Yep. Here's a function in psuedocode to help:

If (D > R)
return "The Fix is in!"
else
return "The result is the truest truth that ever had truthiness"
 
2012-10-19 10:57:16 AM  

snowshovel: Well, that took much longer than I thought for Nate to "adjust" his machine back to his liking. Then again, democrats are hardly efficient at anything.


Left-wing schill or not, he's been correct enough to make a career out of it and have people with lots of money asking him to predict other things as well.
 
2012-10-19 10:58:38 AM  

VoodooTaco: epocalypse: Ha-ha!

I knew adding that comment about Rhodes Island being rubbery would finally give me the greenlight I'd been yearning for!

/subby
//my last greenlight was about Armond White ruining the 100% rating at RT for Toy Story 3.

You should strive for a greenlight that spells the name of our state correctly you sob!

RHODE ISLAND

But I'd expect no less out of someone from New Amsterdam.....


Oh crap. I totally did screw that up. Sorry I'm kind of functioning on low sleep of late.

/Actually do feel bad about it, Rhode Island is one of the states I grew up in.
//Must've been thinking of Rhodes Scholars without thinking.
///FORGIVE ME!
 
2012-10-19 10:59:13 AM  

jake_lex: "YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH. SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING."

fark your paywall, NYT.


I dunno -- I've been reading 538 almost every single day (I know, pathetic) and I've never run into this firewall thing. I just link straight to the blog and it pops right up.

On the other hand, why to you object to the NYT charging for their website? If you went to the news stand, would you expect them to just hand you the physical newspaper for free?
 
2012-10-19 10:59:29 AM  

thornhill: I don't think Obama will destroy Romney. There are rarely screw-ups to the degree of Romney's Libya fiasco.


Without Libya and "Binders Full of Women"™ we would be discussing how Romney's plan for equality in the workplace is to get women home in time to make supper. Also, we would all be giddy with anticipation over that tax cut on the interest we are all getting from our savings account. About the only way he could have sounded more out of touch would be to announce a tax break on the salaries paid to household staff.
 
2012-10-19 11:00:26 AM  

thornhill: Romney is also going to acuse Obama for making huge cuts to defense, forcing Obama to explain sequestration which is no easy task.


"Congress passed it, with 269 voting for and 161 against (3 no-votes) - 174 Republicans for and only 66 against, while 95 Democrats both voted for and against the Act. I think, [moderator], if the Governor has a problem with this plan, originally designed to trim $1.2 trillion dollars from our budget, he should take it up with the Congress who wrote this bill as a means to cut our debt and deficit, but then failed to do so in a way which would have prevented these automatic cuts from happening."

2 sentences (both a bit thick), but they explain what the problem is, where it came from, how to solve it, and who's at fault.
 
2012-10-19 11:02:48 AM  
In general, people need to just not pay attention to national polls. At best they're completely irrelevant, at worst they're completely misleading.
 
Displayed 50 of 266 comments

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | » | Last | Show all

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
Advertisement
On Twitter






In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report