GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.LOL noIt was created this year and has predicted nothing.The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
amiable: Considering this "predictor" only has 8 data points and is based primarily on retrospective analysis (fit-to-model).
gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.LOL noIt was created this year and has predicted nothing.The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.
Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.
amiable: retrospective analysis
theorellior: Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.
Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.
WombatControl: qorkfiend: Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.Although if you look at the polls, it's at least plausible. You have more favorable polls for Romney in all of those states than you do in Ohio.In the end, you are probably going to be right. If Romney is going to be able to win those states, he's likely to win in Ohio as well. Consequently, if Romney is going to lose those states, he's likely to lose Ohio as well.The question will be weather Romney's uptick in the polls is a sign that the race is truly shifting or not. Had Romney's numbers settled back down and Obama regained the lead, I'd say that Obama would win. But what's happening is that you're seeing Obama stuck in the same band he's always been at - 47-49%. Which suggests that Romney has an opening, and the polls are showing that 6% of uncommitted voters swinging towards Romney.Neither candidate will likely get less that 47% of the vote - it's that 6% that will decide who is President in 2013.
qorkfiend: CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the creditDid you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?lolwutI was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.
WombatControl: qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.Take the 2008 states plus IN and NC (Romney's baseline at the moment).Scenario 1: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, NV = 273 Romney EVs. (This one is possible, although NV is an unlikely state for Romney.)Scenario 2: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, WI = 277 Romney EVs. (Oddly enough, WI is looking better for Romney than NV is - remember that WI only barely went for Kerry in 2004, so it is becoming more of a swing state).I wouldn't put odds on either of those happening, although both are possible.
qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.
DubyaHater: Maybe it's misguided, but I have my confidence in Obama back. I watch one poll, Fivethirtyeight because I can't take the ups and downs of the 30 polls published everyday. Key swing states, Colorado and Virginia, are trending back towards Obama. Ohio and Wisconsin are staying blue. I wouldn't worry about Pennsylvania swinging towards a Republican.Unless Obama says in the third debate that he personally ordered the attack in Benghazi, or the November jobs report takes a huge dump, I doubt we'll see major movement in the polls.Hell, I even donated to the Obama campaign last night, and I never do shiat like that. All I can is, have confidence.
WombatControl: As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.
TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.
Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....
JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: Why is everything a war with Conservatives?
gulogulo: You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.
TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.
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