Do you have adblock enabled?
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Some Guy)   The University of Colorado (CU) prediction, renowned for perfect accuracy, says there is a 77% likelihood that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, which is a 72% higher than a CU student actually getting a job after graduation   (campusreform.org) divider line 114
    More: Interesting, University of Colorado System, Mitt Romney, graduation, American Election, predictions, electoral colleges, students, elections  
•       •       •

1522 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2012 at 8:56 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



114 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread
 
2012-10-19 08:58:37 AM  
You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.
 
2012-10-19 09:02:27 AM  
It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.
 
2012-10-19 09:03:49 AM  
Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.
 
2012-10-19 09:04:20 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


I think that would cause open revolution
 
2012-10-19 09:04:24 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


I fear that we'd hear much about "second ammendment solutions" should that come to pass.
 
2012-10-19 09:05:43 AM  
Considering this "predictor" only has 8 data points and is based primarily on retrospective analysis (fit-to-model) I will go with sam Wang and Nate Silver thank you.
 
2012-10-19 09:07:41 AM  
UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey. But that's not important right now. Romney has a lot of money and binders. Let's focus on what is important, derpers.

Hurry November.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:06 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote.


It would set off a derpstorm of biblical proportions.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:25 AM  
 
2012-10-19 09:09:34 AM  
So a mandate for Obama. Good to hear.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:48 AM  

amiable: retrospective analysis


Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:11:46 AM  
A political model that only uses economic data and no political polling? Yeah that seems legit. By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.
 
2012-10-19 09:12:05 AM  
Now, it is certainly possible that Romney will win the popular vote. But the fact that this "model" thinks that is 77% likely means it is deeply flawed, regardless of past performance. A good model would not give a 77 percent chance to something that is probably around 45 percent likely to occur. If you don't see this, you are engaging in magical thinking, and you might as well go buy Romney betting futures for a "bargain".
 
2012-10-19 09:12:14 AM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: amiable: retrospective analysis

Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.


Here's what UC's methodology is like: http://xkcd.com/1122/
 
2012-10-19 09:13:36 AM  
*Shakes fist at Summoner101*
 
2012-10-19 09:17:38 AM  

gulogulo: You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.


I've thought that myself. The truth is that economic policy by a president doesn't start to have any impact on the overall economy until around 4 years after implementation and even then it's somewhat limited. I get infuriated every time I hear Romney rattle off numbers about jobs lost and the even deficit/debt, most of which has absolutely nothing to do with what Obama has done and more to do with what was already there. Romney himself knows this and is being intellectually dishonest to win. That's his thing though; say anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:18:06 AM  

gtraz: By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.


upload.wikimedia.org
"Go on..."
 
2012-10-19 09:18:29 AM  

gtraz: By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.


That would be a candidate I could really enjoy a beer with.
 
2012-10-19 09:18:34 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


malvasiabianca.org
 
2012-10-19 09:20:47 AM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.


LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.
 
2012-10-19 09:21:05 AM  
So, there's a 77% chance of him getting 50+% of the vote?

Well, that means...something.
 
2012-10-19 09:21:13 AM  
CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.



Why is everything a war with Conservatives?
 
2012-10-19 09:23:32 AM  
Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election.

"For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner," he said.


So, did it predict Bush would win in 2000? He sure as hell didn't win the popular vote.
 
2012-10-19 09:24:18 AM  

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.


Why is everything a war with Conservatives?


War makes rape more accessible. And boy, do they love rape.
 
2012-10-19 09:27:20 AM  

HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

 
2012-10-19 09:28:07 AM  
 
2012-10-19 09:34:39 AM  

GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.


The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:38:51 AM  
Let me be the first to note that CU hasn't successfully predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:40:55 AM  

Lost Thought 00: TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.

I think that would cause open revolution


The thing that has kept the Electoral College around for so long (even when it seems like it's an anachronism) is that is scales well. Can you imagine the Derp-fest that would occur if a nation of 150+ million voters had to do a recount.
 
2012-10-19 09:40:57 AM  
Hmm, who to believe... man with numbers, or man with assertions of gut feelings?
 
2012-10-19 09:42:18 AM  

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


So like the AGW studies?
 
2012-10-19 09:42:51 AM  
Would be delicious if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college... all these retards that have shouted "we're not a democracy, we're a republic!" and defended the supreme court for years will do a 180 so hard they'll break their necks.
 
2012-10-19 09:43:54 AM  

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


I find it surprising that I even read the blog article... I'm not doing more work than that!
 
2012-10-19 09:46:04 AM  

Summoner101: Relevant


No candidate that uses a nickname rather than his given first name (or its derivatives) has ever won. (Ike still used Dwight quite often.)

No incumbent of direct African descent has ever been re-elected.
 
2012-10-19 09:47:24 AM  
Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....
 
2012-10-19 09:47:25 AM  

Epoch_Zero: Hmm, who to believe... man with numbers, or man with assertions of gut feelings?


i1162.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-19 09:48:21 AM  

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: Why is everything a war with Conservatives?


When you are conservative you are constantly under assault by reality. I'm sure it feels like a war.
 
2012-10-19 09:49:32 AM  

max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.


Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check
 
2012-10-19 09:54:15 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


There was a call to get rid of the electoral college when Bush won in 2000. What's your point?
 
2012-10-19 09:54:34 AM  

Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....


No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:03 AM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey. But that's not important right now. Romney has a lot of money and binders. Let's focus on what is important, derpers.

Hurry November.


As other posters have said, they don't predict anything. Silver has in 2008. The UC model is flawed.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:39 AM  

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


My educated guess: lies can only help you in the short term.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:59 AM  

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


Very good state level polling data for Obama yesterday. That is what happened.
 
2012-10-19 09:56:20 AM  
i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-19 09:57:09 AM  
I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.
 
2012-10-19 09:57:56 AM  

Hollie Maea: Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....

No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.


I stopped paying attention to the article when I realized the writer couldn't tell the difference between a model and a poll. CampusReform.org indeed - they should start by reforming their stats classes.
 
2012-10-19 09:58:32 AM  

IlGreven: Summoner101: Relevant

No candidate that uses a nickname rather than his given first name (or its derivatives) has ever won. (Ike still used Dwight quite often.)

No incumbent of direct African descent has ever been re-elected.


No incumbent who saw the Superbowl champions lose their home opener to a team that was sub-500 by mid-October was ever re-elected.

No challenger who saw the NYY swept out of the wild card series ever won against an incumbent.
 
2012-10-19 09:59:09 AM  

DubyaHater: [i.qkme.me image 402x604]


i1.kym-cdn.com
 
2012-10-19 10:00:07 AM  

SithLord: I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.


I think the riots would be in case of an Obama win. The GOP seems to be cherry picking some curious data analysis and making it seem like Romney's got a chance. In fact, the polling in the states that he needs to win are trending in the opposite way. Even if those swing states stay put, he still loses handily.
 
2012-10-19 10:03:18 AM  
Why do the conservatives insist on deluding themselves this way? Isn't it obvious that this prediction is a major outlier? Is it that important to swaddle yourself in thoughts of a comfortable outcome that you're willing to risk major disappointment?

I don't know the answer to any of these questions, but this prediliction towards bubble building is exactly why I no longer want to put you people in charge of anything. Not the dog pound, let alone the presidency.
 
2012-10-19 10:04:54 AM  
Nobody ever went broke betting on the innumeracy of the conservative movement. Could make some good money setting up a bizarro-Nate Silver website that always predicts Romney ahead.
 
2012-10-19 10:06:06 AM  
Or...as it says in all those financial disclosure statements, "Past performance is not an indicator of future results."

You can take your cue from the pop-up ad that appeared with TFA: "Be the first to know about more leftist abuses on college campuses. Sign up here."

Yeah...that's an unbiased, impartial source. Riiiiiiiiigggtt!
 
2012-10-19 10:07:08 AM  
only four presidents since the nation's founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.

Or another way of saying it, "the last time it happened was only three elections ago".

We are currently an incredibly polarized nation, its going to lead to some unusual outcomes with the EC.
 
2012-10-19 10:07:30 AM  
I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.
 
2012-10-19 10:10:09 AM  

CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit


Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?
 
2012-10-19 10:10:57 AM  

phritz: Nobody ever went broke betting on the innumeracy of the conservative movement. Could make some good money setting up a bizarro-Nate Silver website that always predicts Romney ahead.


Not sure if I'm missing a "THATS THE JOKE" here, but here you go
 
2012-10-19 10:11:05 AM  
As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.
 
2012-10-19 10:11:17 AM  

Epoch_Zero: DubyaHater: [i.qkme.me image 402x604]

[i1.kym-cdn.com image 550x301]


This meme makes me laugh like an idiot, and I'm not sure why.......

i.chzbgr.com
 
2012-10-19 10:11:33 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


This would absolutely be the best outcome to come out of this election. It's amazing to me that people still stand by an antiquated election method in which the votes of 38 out of 50 states are deemed completely irrelevant right from the outset, including the voters in our largest urban areas as our nation gets more and more urbanized.
 
2012-10-19 10:13:34 AM  

GanjSmokr: I find it surprising that I even read the blog article... I'm not doing more work than that!


i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-19 10:19:08 AM  
Predicting winners isn't that impressive. Just generally giving a throw away glance at the polling data right before the election would give you a pretty strong chance of predicting the winner. I'm impressed by predicting margin of victory. IE Sam Wang's models exactly nailing the electoral vote count in 2004, and missing the exact EV count by 1 vote in 2008. Or Silver coming within less of 1 point of the popular percentage.
 
2012-10-19 10:25:07 AM  
I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.
 
2012-10-19 10:28:27 AM  
... this model was created recently and isn't renowned for anything. It used data to obtain the (correct) outcomes of past elections. This will be the first election it'll actually be used to predict anything in.

Science bent for political purposes? You bet.
 
2012-10-19 10:28:41 AM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.


www.troll.me 

Maybe it's misguided, but I have my confidence in Obama back. I watch one poll, Fivethirtyeight because I can't take the ups and downs of the 30 polls published everyday. Key swing states, Colorado and Virginia, are trending back towards Obama. Ohio and Wisconsin are staying blue. I wouldn't worry about Pennsylvania swinging towards a Republican.
Unless Obama says in the third debate that he personally ordered the attack in Benghazi, or the November jobs report takes a huge dump, I doubt we'll see major movement in the polls.
Hell, I even donated to the Obama campaign last night, and I never do shiat like that. All I can is, have confidence.
 
2012-10-19 10:32:58 AM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.


Wow, almost your entire post is false.
 
2012-10-19 10:36:44 AM  
Meh, the Panthers are absolutely terrible. Via "Redskins Rule", Obama should be reelected easily.
 
2012-10-19 10:36:55 AM  

Cletus C.: I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.


It makes sense you offered no analysis of the consequences of their policies. Otherwise you'd just be hoping Mitt doesn't get elected.
 
2012-10-19 10:37:04 AM  

CPennypacker: I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.


This. It would be difficult to fail in the next four years. Whoever presides over them will be a hero. The Republicans know this and that is why they are in such a dither over this election.
 
2012-10-19 10:37:12 AM  

WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.


I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.
 
2012-10-19 10:39:42 AM  

WombatControl: I don't know how the electoral college works.


You sure don't.
 
2012-10-19 10:40:22 AM  

DubyaHater: Maybe it's misguided, but I have my confidence in Obama back. I watch one poll, Fivethirtyeight because I can't take the ups and downs of the 30 polls published everyday. Key swing states, Colorado and Virginia, are trending back towards Obama. Ohio and Wisconsin are staying blue. I wouldn't worry about Pennsylvania swinging towards a Republican.
Unless Obama says in the third debate that he personally ordered the attack in Benghazi, or the November jobs report takes a huge dump, I doubt we'll see major movement in the polls.
Hell, I even donated to the Obama campaign last night, and I never do shiat like that. All I can is, have confidence.


There has been a state of equilibrium in this race of Obama up +2. There have been short term swings depending on the news cycles involving debates, conventions, "legitimate rape", 47%, etc. that have temporarily bounced the trends away from the +2 baseline of homeostasis, but eventually over time it gradually begins to shift back to that point. We're seeing it again currently. If there's anything that' been remarkable about this particular election is how stasis it's been towards this +2 trendline over the long term.

Per Nate Silver ...

So far this cycle, betting on the polling average converging to Obama +2 has pretty much always been right.

In visual form from Sam Wang's Meta analysis....
election.princeton.edu
 
2012-10-19 10:44:00 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.



The only realistic shot he has is flipping Iowa and Wisconsin, which is why the NBC/Marist polling was particularly bad for Romney yesterday. Those were large samples too, 1000+ LVs. By contrast, Rasmussan only used 500 LVs in their last Wisconsin poll (Obama +2).
 
2012-10-19 10:55:39 AM  

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


So they're using their test set as their training set? Hilarious. They'd get an F for that project in any statistical modeling class.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:05 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.


Take the 2008 states plus IN and NC (Romney's baseline at the moment).

Scenario 1: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, NV = 273 Romney EVs. (This one is possible, although NV is an unlikely state for Romney.)

Scenario 2: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, WI = 277 Romney EVs. (Oddly enough, WI is looking better for Romney than NV is - remember that WI only barely went for Kerry in 2004, so it is becoming more of a swing state).

I wouldn't put odds on either of those happening, although both are possible.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:17 AM  

Mercutio74: Cletus C.: I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.

It makes sense you offered no analysis of the consequences of their policies. Otherwise you'd just be hoping Mitt doesn't get elected.


We've seen the consequences of Obama's policies, mostly. Great strides in a lot of areas. Bin Laden finally dead. A forward-thinking approach to gay rights that may finally be moving the needle in many states. A squandered pile of stimulus dollars. An inability to work with Congress. An Affordable Care Act that has good aspects and a lot of unknown that needs to play out, if it stays. Also, an economy that is not good. No movement on immigration reform. Entitlements remain more a political game than a looming disaster.

Romney consequences? The great unknown. Maybe he could work with Congress. Maybe his economic plans work. Maybe we address problems rather than play political games with them. Maybe it's just a big mess.

The biggest consequences are likely to come through Supreme Court appointments. The president is likely to determine the course of our courts for years if not decades to come. I have issues with both hard-line conservative and liberal approaches on the court. So go figure.

But I will not be disappointed, angry or suicidal if either man wins.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:28 AM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: amiable: retrospective analysis

Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.


yep.

Not to mention that

a) eight is HARDLY a huge sample size

and

b) msot of the pats 8 elections were not close at all, so even if it was somehow accurate nonretrospectively that still isn't terribly impressive.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:53 AM  

Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?


lolwut
 
2012-10-19 11:02:06 AM  

WombatControl: qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.

Take the 2008 states plus IN and NC (Romney's baseline at the moment).

Scenario 1: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, NV = 273 Romney EVs. (This one is possible, although NV is an unlikely state for Romney.)

Scenario 2: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, WI = 277 Romney EVs. (Oddly enough, WI is looking better for Romney than NV is - remember that WI only barely went for Kerry in 2004, so it is becoming more of a swing state).

I wouldn't put odds on either of those happening, although both are possible.


Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.
 
2012-10-19 11:02:14 AM  

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


On what planet is that a huge jump?

Obama was falling far quicker in the 538 model after the first debate...
 
2012-10-19 11:02:31 AM  
www.bitlogic.com
 
2012-10-19 11:02:54 AM  

CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut


I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.
 
2012-10-19 11:04:01 AM  
Why didn't this blogger go with the same model applied state by state? It predicts Romney with 330 EVs, which is still ridiculous, but at least relevant to how we actually elect presidents.
 
2012-10-19 11:04:38 AM  

Bill Frist: vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check

On what planet is that a huge jump?

Obama was falling far quicker in the 538 model after the first debate...


On the planet where yesterday Obama was at 64%. That planet is know locally as Earth.
 
2012-10-19 11:06:10 AM  

Skirl Hutsenreiter: Why didn't this blogger go with the same model applied state by state? It predicts Romney with 330 EVs, which is still ridiculous, but at least relevant to how we actually elect presidents.


As ridiculous as 77% chance of winning is, it's still more plausible than 330 EV.
 
2012-10-19 11:07:33 AM  

qorkfiend: CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut

I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.


I was a Republican then, and I couldn't understand why Bush Sr. Didn't get more credit for pulling off one of the most successful military ops in US history, getting in and out quickly and with almost the entire world in support. Foreign-policy-wise, it's just about as good as anything the US has managed to do.
 
2012-10-19 11:09:19 AM  

qorkfiend: CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut

I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.


1992 was a mild recession and Republicans did it to themselves
 
2012-10-19 11:10:19 AM  

qorkfiend: Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.


Although if you look at the polls, it's at least plausible. You have more favorable polls for Romney in all of those states than you do in Ohio.

In the end, you are probably going to be right. If Romney is going to be able to win those states, he's likely to win in Ohio as well. Consequently, if Romney is going to lose those states, he's likely to lose Ohio as well.

The question will be weather Romney's uptick in the polls is a sign that the race is truly shifting or not. Had Romney's numbers settled back down and Obama regained the lead, I'd say that Obama would win. But what's happening is that you're seeing Obama stuck in the same band he's always been at - 47-49%. Which suggests that Romney has an opening, and the polls are showing that 6% of uncommitted voters swinging towards Romney.

Neither candidate will likely get less that 47% of the vote - it's that 6% that will decide who is President in 2013.
 
2012-10-19 11:13:00 AM  

WombatControl: qorkfiend: Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.

Although if you look at the polls, it's at least plausible. You have more favorable polls for Romney in all of those states than you do in Ohio.

In the end, you are probably going to be right. If Romney is going to be able to win those states, he's likely to win in Ohio as well. Consequently, if Romney is going to lose those states, he's likely to lose Ohio as well.

The question will be weather Romney's uptick in the polls is a sign that the race is truly shifting or not. Had Romney's numbers settled back down and Obama regained the lead, I'd say that Obama would win. But what's happening is that you're seeing Obama stuck in the same band he's always been at - 47-49%. Which suggests that Romney has an opening, and the polls are showing that 6% of uncommitted voters swinging towards Romney.

Neither candidate will likely get less that 47% of the vote - it's that 6% that will decide who is President in 2013.


What numbers haven't "settled back down"? Obama's back on the climb in the poll aggregators.
 
2012-10-19 11:17:03 AM  

Hollie Maea: CPennypacker: I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.

This. It would be difficult to fail in the next four years. Whoever presides over them will be a hero. The Republicans know this and that is why they are in such a dither over this election.


If the Republicans still have the House it will be easy for them to throw a temper tantrum and crash the economy the next time the debt ceiling needs to be raised.
 
2012-10-19 11:19:12 AM  
IIRC, hasn't this model never predicted anything? I thought it was all retro-diction.
 
2012-10-19 11:51:26 AM  

vygramul: [www.bitlogic.com image 600x401]


My friend pointed out that the election is now between Stool and Chair. I found that amusing.
 
2012-10-19 12:17:08 PM  
FARK EM UP FARK EM UP GO CU!

/CU Alum
//Went to grad school after
///Now a Ph.D.
////slashies
 
2012-10-19 12:20:21 PM  
I hope he does... and then loses the electoral vote. Then maybe we can get rid of these stupid farking system.
 
2012-10-19 12:30:23 PM  

Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.


Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.
 
2012-10-19 12:36:16 PM  

theorellior: Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.

Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.


"Shovel ready" has become the punch line in the stimulus dollars joke. Glad it worked out for you, though.
 
2012-10-19 12:53:33 PM  

gtraz: Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980.



THIS. Right wingers keep falling for this "never been wrong in 8 elections!" crap from this source. It's like once every couple of weeks I have to read about it again on Fark.
 
2012-10-19 01:29:56 PM  

theorellior: Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.

Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.


The 40 year old dilapidated highway I call my commute to work is getting a complete facelift with expanded lanes. I am happy.
 
2012-10-19 01:41:28 PM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to modeled that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.


The Gallup poll had a higher rate of white voter representation than happened in 2008. The country has become more ethnic since 2008. Any model assuming that fewer ethnic voters will turn out this year is going to be hilariously wrong...unless the voter suppression schemes actually pay off that is.
 
2012-10-19 01:50:49 PM  

SithLord: I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.


Really? Because the desperate people seem to be the ones who are convinced that America can't handle another 4 years.
 
2012-10-19 02:03:02 PM  

PC LOAD LETTER: JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.


Why is everything a war with Conservatives?

War makes rape more accessible. And boy, do they love rape.


You said "rape" twice.

/rape
 
2012-10-19 02:08:19 PM  
The school is named University of Colorado, but they abbreviate it CU?

Sounds like they might be dyslexic. I'd be wary of that 77% figure; they might have put the digits in the wrong order.
 
2012-10-19 02:10:13 PM  

Cletus C.: Romney consequences? The great unknown. Maybe he could work with Congress. Maybe his economic plans work. Maybe we address problems rather than play political games with them. Maybe it's just a big mess.


IMO, we saw the Romney consequences in 2008. I have no desire to go back to those policies, but that seems to be exactly what Romney wants.

No matter who's in the White House, real problems will just be political footballs until there's some significant change in Congress. Those guys don't give a shiat about solving problems, other than this one - "How do I keep my spot on this elected gravy train?"
 
2012-10-19 02:57:20 PM  

hiker9999: TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.

I fear that we'd hear much about "second ammendment solutions" should that come to pass.


wait until ghey marriage gets a serious boost from the supremes
 
2012-10-19 02:58:23 PM  

gulogulo: You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.


THIS!

It's a big part of why I really really don't want this guy. Everyone of my co-workers will feel this validates their tea-bagger bs.
 
2012-10-19 03:49:48 PM  

blindking: It's a big part of why I really really don't want this guy. Everyone of my co-workers will feel this validates their tea-bagger bs.


I think no matter what the outcome of the election is, we have about 2 months to make sure that its recognized that the economy has been improving. I don't want history rewritten here.
 
2012-10-19 03:53:46 PM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey. But that's not important right now. Romney has a lot of money and binders. Let's focus on what is important, derpers.

Hurry November.


You know who else accurately predicted the last few elections?

7-eleven.

So no, this UColorado model doesn't merit any real scrutiny.
 
2012-10-19 04:01:25 PM  

poot_rootbeer: The school is named University of Colorado, but they abbreviate it CU?

Sounds like they might be dyslexic. I'd be wary of that 77% figure; they might have put the digits in the wrong order.


They might be trying to avoid confusion with University of California (UC), which is much better known/respected.
 
2012-10-19 04:44:32 PM  
I suppose we should start passing out magnets and coils of wire. If Obama were to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote, all the spinning (from all sides) might just be able to solve our nation's energy problems.
 
2012-10-19 05:26:50 PM  

novalord2: They might be trying to avoid confusion with University of California (UC), which is much better known/respected.


Fortunately there are no other schools in the country which abbreviate to "CU", in particular not two Ivy League universities.
 
2012-10-19 09:33:41 PM  

novalord2: poot_rootbeer: The school is named University of Colorado, but they abbreviate it CU?

Sounds like they might be dyslexic. I'd be wary of that 77% figure; they might have put the digits in the wrong order.

They might be trying to avoid confusion with University of California (UC), which is much better known/respected.


It has more to do with how plains states like to abbreviate in general (University of Kansas - KU, University of Oklahoma - OU). Distinguishing from UC is ancillary.

Anyways, amused that I just read in Nate Silver's book about how these "fundamentals-based" models that ignore polls came into vogue after Bush I's victory, but have been off by about 7 points historically.
 
2012-10-19 11:19:45 PM  

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS:

Why is everything a war with Conservatives?


Because "jihad" was already taken.
 
2012-10-20 11:11:51 AM  
A XX% chance of anything happening or not happening really doesn't matter at all. There can be only a 10% chance of rain, but that doesn't ensure that you won't be caught out in a torrential rainstorm
 
2012-10-20 03:57:28 PM  

Cloudchaser Sakonige the Red Wolf: A XX% chance of anything happening or not happening really doesn't matter at all. There can be only a 10% chance of rain, but that doesn't ensure that you won't be caught out in a torrential rainstorm


intrade might be 61%. but the true odds of a torrential Barackstorm is 100%
 
2012-10-21 01:43:15 AM  

Nilatir: Lost Thought 00: TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.

I think that would cause open revolution

The thing that has kept the Electoral College around for so long (even when it seems like it's an anachronism) is that is scales well. Can you imagine the Derp-fest that would occur if a nation of 150+ million voters had to do a recount.


That being said, the EC makes it much simpler to steal an election.
 
Displayed 114 of 114 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
On Twitter





In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report