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(Some Guy)   The University of Colorado (CU) prediction, renowned for perfect accuracy, says there is a 77% likelihood that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, which is a 72% higher than a CU student actually getting a job after graduation   (campusreform.org) divider line 114
    More: Interesting, University of Colorado System, Mitt Romney, graduation, American Election, predictions, electoral colleges, students, elections  
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1521 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2012 at 8:56 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-19 10:04:54 AM  
Nobody ever went broke betting on the innumeracy of the conservative movement. Could make some good money setting up a bizarro-Nate Silver website that always predicts Romney ahead.
 
2012-10-19 10:06:06 AM  
Or...as it says in all those financial disclosure statements, "Past performance is not an indicator of future results."

You can take your cue from the pop-up ad that appeared with TFA: "Be the first to know about more leftist abuses on college campuses. Sign up here."

Yeah...that's an unbiased, impartial source. Riiiiiiiiigggtt!
 
2012-10-19 10:07:08 AM  
only four presidents since the nation's founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.

Or another way of saying it, "the last time it happened was only three elections ago".

We are currently an incredibly polarized nation, its going to lead to some unusual outcomes with the EC.
 
2012-10-19 10:07:30 AM  
I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.
 
2012-10-19 10:10:09 AM  

CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit


Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?
 
2012-10-19 10:10:57 AM  

phritz: Nobody ever went broke betting on the innumeracy of the conservative movement. Could make some good money setting up a bizarro-Nate Silver website that always predicts Romney ahead.


Not sure if I'm missing a "THATS THE JOKE" here, but here you go
 
2012-10-19 10:11:05 AM  
As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.
 
2012-10-19 10:11:17 AM  

Epoch_Zero: DubyaHater: [i.qkme.me image 402x604]

[i1.kym-cdn.com image 550x301]


This meme makes me laugh like an idiot, and I'm not sure why.......

i.chzbgr.com
 
2012-10-19 10:11:33 AM  

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


This would absolutely be the best outcome to come out of this election. It's amazing to me that people still stand by an antiquated election method in which the votes of 38 out of 50 states are deemed completely irrelevant right from the outset, including the voters in our largest urban areas as our nation gets more and more urbanized.
 
2012-10-19 10:13:34 AM  

GanjSmokr: I find it surprising that I even read the blog article... I'm not doing more work than that!


i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-19 10:19:08 AM  
Predicting winners isn't that impressive. Just generally giving a throw away glance at the polling data right before the election would give you a pretty strong chance of predicting the winner. I'm impressed by predicting margin of victory. IE Sam Wang's models exactly nailing the electoral vote count in 2004, and missing the exact EV count by 1 vote in 2008. Or Silver coming within less of 1 point of the popular percentage.
 
2012-10-19 10:25:07 AM  
I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.
 
2012-10-19 10:28:27 AM  
... this model was created recently and isn't renowned for anything. It used data to obtain the (correct) outcomes of past elections. This will be the first election it'll actually be used to predict anything in.

Science bent for political purposes? You bet.
 
2012-10-19 10:28:41 AM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.


www.troll.me 

Maybe it's misguided, but I have my confidence in Obama back. I watch one poll, Fivethirtyeight because I can't take the ups and downs of the 30 polls published everyday. Key swing states, Colorado and Virginia, are trending back towards Obama. Ohio and Wisconsin are staying blue. I wouldn't worry about Pennsylvania swinging towards a Republican.
Unless Obama says in the third debate that he personally ordered the attack in Benghazi, or the November jobs report takes a huge dump, I doubt we'll see major movement in the polls.
Hell, I even donated to the Obama campaign last night, and I never do shiat like that. All I can is, have confidence.
 
2012-10-19 10:32:58 AM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to believe that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.


Wow, almost your entire post is false.
 
2012-10-19 10:36:44 AM  
Meh, the Panthers are absolutely terrible. Via "Redskins Rule", Obama should be reelected easily.
 
2012-10-19 10:36:55 AM  

Cletus C.: I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.


It makes sense you offered no analysis of the consequences of their policies. Otherwise you'd just be hoping Mitt doesn't get elected.
 
2012-10-19 10:37:04 AM  

CPennypacker: I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.


This. It would be difficult to fail in the next four years. Whoever presides over them will be a hero. The Republicans know this and that is why they are in such a dither over this election.
 
2012-10-19 10:37:12 AM  

WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.


I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.
 
2012-10-19 10:39:42 AM  

WombatControl: I don't know how the electoral college works.


You sure don't.
 
2012-10-19 10:40:22 AM  

DubyaHater: Maybe it's misguided, but I have my confidence in Obama back. I watch one poll, Fivethirtyeight because I can't take the ups and downs of the 30 polls published everyday. Key swing states, Colorado and Virginia, are trending back towards Obama. Ohio and Wisconsin are staying blue. I wouldn't worry about Pennsylvania swinging towards a Republican.
Unless Obama says in the third debate that he personally ordered the attack in Benghazi, or the November jobs report takes a huge dump, I doubt we'll see major movement in the polls.
Hell, I even donated to the Obama campaign last night, and I never do shiat like that. All I can is, have confidence.


There has been a state of equilibrium in this race of Obama up +2. There have been short term swings depending on the news cycles involving debates, conventions, "legitimate rape", 47%, etc. that have temporarily bounced the trends away from the +2 baseline of homeostasis, but eventually over time it gradually begins to shift back to that point. We're seeing it again currently. If there's anything that' been remarkable about this particular election is how stasis it's been towards this +2 trendline over the long term.

Per Nate Silver ...

So far this cycle, betting on the polling average converging to Obama +2 has pretty much always been right.

In visual form from Sam Wang's Meta analysis....
election.princeton.edu
 
2012-10-19 10:44:00 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.



The only realistic shot he has is flipping Iowa and Wisconsin, which is why the NBC/Marist polling was particularly bad for Romney yesterday. Those were large samples too, 1000+ LVs. By contrast, Rasmussan only used 500 LVs in their last Wisconsin poll (Obama +2).
 
2012-10-19 10:55:39 AM  

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


So they're using their test set as their training set? Hilarious. They'd get an F for that project in any statistical modeling class.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:05 AM  

qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.


Take the 2008 states plus IN and NC (Romney's baseline at the moment).

Scenario 1: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, NV = 273 Romney EVs. (This one is possible, although NV is an unlikely state for Romney.)

Scenario 2: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, WI = 277 Romney EVs. (Oddly enough, WI is looking better for Romney than NV is - remember that WI only barely went for Kerry in 2004, so it is becoming more of a swing state).

I wouldn't put odds on either of those happening, although both are possible.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:17 AM  

Mercutio74: Cletus C.: I don't know which would be worse, Obama winning and the mindless gloating and braying of his followers or Romney winning and those same faithful trotting out their election fraud and "bought the presidency" box of whines that will drag on for four years.

There will be no winner, ultimately.

It makes sense you offered no analysis of the consequences of their policies. Otherwise you'd just be hoping Mitt doesn't get elected.


We've seen the consequences of Obama's policies, mostly. Great strides in a lot of areas. Bin Laden finally dead. A forward-thinking approach to gay rights that may finally be moving the needle in many states. A squandered pile of stimulus dollars. An inability to work with Congress. An Affordable Care Act that has good aspects and a lot of unknown that needs to play out, if it stays. Also, an economy that is not good. No movement on immigration reform. Entitlements remain more a political game than a looming disaster.

Romney consequences? The great unknown. Maybe he could work with Congress. Maybe his economic plans work. Maybe we address problems rather than play political games with them. Maybe it's just a big mess.

The biggest consequences are likely to come through Supreme Court appointments. The president is likely to determine the course of our courts for years if not decades to come. I have issues with both hard-line conservative and liberal approaches on the court. So go figure.

But I will not be disappointed, angry or suicidal if either man wins.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:28 AM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: amiable: retrospective analysis

Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.


yep.

Not to mention that

a) eight is HARDLY a huge sample size

and

b) msot of the pats 8 elections were not close at all, so even if it was somehow accurate nonretrospectively that still isn't terribly impressive.
 
2012-10-19 10:59:53 AM  

Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?


lolwut
 
2012-10-19 11:02:06 AM  

WombatControl: qorkfiend: WombatControl: Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President.

I'd like to see the electoral scenario where Romney loses Ohio but wins the election.

Take the 2008 states plus IN and NC (Romney's baseline at the moment).

Scenario 1: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, NV = 273 Romney EVs. (This one is possible, although NV is an unlikely state for Romney.)

Scenario 2: Baseline + NH, VA, FL, IA, CO, WI = 277 Romney EVs. (Oddly enough, WI is looking better for Romney than NV is - remember that WI only barely went for Kerry in 2004, so it is becoming more of a swing state).

I wouldn't put odds on either of those happening, although both are possible.


Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.
 
2012-10-19 11:02:14 AM  

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


On what planet is that a huge jump?

Obama was falling far quicker in the 538 model after the first debate...
 
2012-10-19 11:02:31 AM  
www.bitlogic.com
 
2012-10-19 11:02:54 AM  

CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut


I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.
 
2012-10-19 11:04:01 AM  
Why didn't this blogger go with the same model applied state by state? It predicts Romney with 330 EVs, which is still ridiculous, but at least relevant to how we actually elect presidents.
 
2012-10-19 11:04:38 AM  

Bill Frist: vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check

On what planet is that a huge jump?

Obama was falling far quicker in the 538 model after the first debate...


On the planet where yesterday Obama was at 64%. That planet is know locally as Earth.
 
2012-10-19 11:06:10 AM  

Skirl Hutsenreiter: Why didn't this blogger go with the same model applied state by state? It predicts Romney with 330 EVs, which is still ridiculous, but at least relevant to how we actually elect presidents.


As ridiculous as 77% chance of winning is, it's still more plausible than 330 EV.
 
2012-10-19 11:07:33 AM  

qorkfiend: CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut

I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.


I was a Republican then, and I couldn't understand why Bush Sr. Didn't get more credit for pulling off one of the most successful military ops in US history, getting in and out quickly and with almost the entire world in support. Foreign-policy-wise, it's just about as good as anything the US has managed to do.
 
2012-10-19 11:09:19 AM  

qorkfiend: CPennypacker: Saiga410: CPennypacker: recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit

Did you cry like this when Clinton did this to Bush Sr?

lolwut

I was wondering to myself, during the aftermath of debate 1, if this is how the Republicans felt in 1992.


1992 was a mild recession and Republicans did it to themselves
 
2012-10-19 11:10:19 AM  

qorkfiend: Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.


Although if you look at the polls, it's at least plausible. You have more favorable polls for Romney in all of those states than you do in Ohio.

In the end, you are probably going to be right. If Romney is going to be able to win those states, he's likely to win in Ohio as well. Consequently, if Romney is going to lose those states, he's likely to lose Ohio as well.

The question will be weather Romney's uptick in the polls is a sign that the race is truly shifting or not. Had Romney's numbers settled back down and Obama regained the lead, I'd say that Obama would win. But what's happening is that you're seeing Obama stuck in the same band he's always been at - 47-49%. Which suggests that Romney has an opening, and the polls are showing that 6% of uncommitted voters swinging towards Romney.

Neither candidate will likely get less that 47% of the vote - it's that 6% that will decide who is President in 2013.
 
2012-10-19 11:13:00 AM  

WombatControl: qorkfiend: Mathematically possible, sure. Plausible, no. I don't see Romney sweeping New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado while losing Ohio.

Although if you look at the polls, it's at least plausible. You have more favorable polls for Romney in all of those states than you do in Ohio.

In the end, you are probably going to be right. If Romney is going to be able to win those states, he's likely to win in Ohio as well. Consequently, if Romney is going to lose those states, he's likely to lose Ohio as well.

The question will be weather Romney's uptick in the polls is a sign that the race is truly shifting or not. Had Romney's numbers settled back down and Obama regained the lead, I'd say that Obama would win. But what's happening is that you're seeing Obama stuck in the same band he's always been at - 47-49%. Which suggests that Romney has an opening, and the polls are showing that 6% of uncommitted voters swinging towards Romney.

Neither candidate will likely get less that 47% of the vote - it's that 6% that will decide who is President in 2013.


What numbers haven't "settled back down"? Obama's back on the climb in the poll aggregators.
 
2012-10-19 11:17:03 AM  

Hollie Maea: CPennypacker: I can just see the results of a Romney win and it pisses my face off

Does everything in his power to hamper economic growth, but recession is ending so economy finishes correcting itself. Romney gets all the credit. Obama added to worst presidents list with Carter.

Pisses my farking face off.

This. It would be difficult to fail in the next four years. Whoever presides over them will be a hero. The Republicans know this and that is why they are in such a dither over this election.


If the Republicans still have the House it will be easy for them to throw a temper tantrum and crash the economy the next time the debt ceiling needs to be raised.
 
2012-10-19 11:19:12 AM  
IIRC, hasn't this model never predicted anything? I thought it was all retro-diction.
 
2012-10-19 11:51:26 AM  

vygramul: [www.bitlogic.com image 600x401]


My friend pointed out that the election is now between Stool and Chair. I found that amusing.
 
2012-10-19 12:17:08 PM  
FARK EM UP FARK EM UP GO CU!

/CU Alum
//Went to grad school after
///Now a Ph.D.
////slashies
 
2012-10-19 12:20:21 PM  
I hope he does... and then loses the electoral vote. Then maybe we can get rid of these stupid farking system.
 
2012-10-19 12:30:23 PM  

Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.


Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.
 
2012-10-19 12:36:16 PM  

theorellior: Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.

Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.


"Shovel ready" has become the punch line in the stimulus dollars joke. Glad it worked out for you, though.
 
2012-10-19 12:53:33 PM  

gtraz: Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980.



THIS. Right wingers keep falling for this "never been wrong in 8 elections!" crap from this source. It's like once every couple of weeks I have to read about it again on Fark.
 
2012-10-19 01:29:56 PM  

theorellior: Cletus C.: A squandered pile of stimulus dollars.

Just because your state didn't know what to do with extra funds didn't mean the stimulus was squandered. I saw lots of "shovel-ready" highway projects around Massachusetts and other New England states during 2009 and 2010.


The 40 year old dilapidated highway I call my commute to work is getting a complete facelift with expanded lanes. I am happy.
 
2012-10-19 01:41:28 PM  

WombatControl: As much as I would love to modeled that Romney has a 77% chance of winning, there's no way in hell that's true.

But the people who blindly say that the swing state polls are good news for Obama. When you start seeing the race in the key swing states tightening, that's not good news for an incumbent President. The only good polls for Obama recently have been the NBC/Marist ones, that have been heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Otherwise, we're seeing a pro-Romney trend in OH, CO, FL, VA, and even in states like IA, NV, NH, and WI. Hell, there was even a poll showing Romney ahead in PA! (Susquahenna). Now, I don't buy that Romney is really ahead in PA, but if that race is close that means that Obama is going to have to start playing defense more and more.

Romney probably, but not absolutely, needs to win Ohio to become President. And right now President Obama has a slim lead there, but enough to give him the edge. But if Ohio keeps moving in the pro-Romney direction, Obama is likely to lose.

Right now the odds are shifting towards Romney - to be fair I'd have to give the President a slight edge to win, but that edge keeps getting smaller and smaller.

And if Gallup is right, it could be a Romney blowout - but there are good reasons to think that Gallup's model is not particularly accurate this time around.


The Gallup poll had a higher rate of white voter representation than happened in 2008. The country has become more ethnic since 2008. Any model assuming that fewer ethnic voters will turn out this year is going to be hilariously wrong...unless the voter suppression schemes actually pay off that is.
 
2012-10-19 01:50:49 PM  

SithLord: I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.


Really? Because the desperate people seem to be the ones who are convinced that America can't handle another 4 years.
 
2012-10-19 02:03:02 PM  

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Why is everything a war with Conservatives?

War makes rape more accessible. And boy, do they love rape.


You said "rape" twice.

/rape
 
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