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(Some Guy)   The University of Colorado (CU) prediction, renowned for perfect accuracy, says there is a 77% likelihood that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, which is a 72% higher than a CU student actually getting a job after graduation   (campusreform.org) divider line 114
    More: Interesting, University of Colorado System, Mitt Romney, graduation, American Election, predictions, electoral colleges, students, elections  
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1521 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2012 at 8:56 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-19 08:58:37 AM
You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.
 
2012-10-19 09:02:27 AM
It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.
 
2012-10-19 09:03:49 AM
Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.
 
2012-10-19 09:04:20 AM

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


I think that would cause open revolution
 
2012-10-19 09:04:24 AM

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


I fear that we'd hear much about "second ammendment solutions" should that come to pass.
 
2012-10-19 09:05:43 AM
Considering this "predictor" only has 8 data points and is based primarily on retrospective analysis (fit-to-model) I will go with sam Wang and Nate Silver thank you.
 
2012-10-19 09:07:41 AM
UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey. But that's not important right now. Romney has a lot of money and binders. Let's focus on what is important, derpers.

Hurry November.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:06 AM

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote.


It would set off a derpstorm of biblical proportions.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:25 AM
 
2012-10-19 09:09:34 AM
So a mandate for Obama. Good to hear.
 
2012-10-19 09:09:48 AM

amiable: retrospective analysis


Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:11:46 AM
A political model that only uses economic data and no political polling? Yeah that seems legit. By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.
 
2012-10-19 09:12:05 AM
Now, it is certainly possible that Romney will win the popular vote. But the fact that this "model" thinks that is 77% likely means it is deeply flawed, regardless of past performance. A good model would not give a 77 percent chance to something that is probably around 45 percent likely to occur. If you don't see this, you are engaging in magical thinking, and you might as well go buy Romney betting futures for a "bargain".
 
2012-10-19 09:12:14 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: amiable: retrospective analysis

Bingo. They haven't predicted anything.


Here's what UC's methodology is like: http://xkcd.com/1122/
 
2012-10-19 09:13:36 AM
*Shakes fist at Summoner101*
 
2012-10-19 09:17:38 AM

gulogulo: You know, if Romney wins, even though the economy has been improving steadily for months now, they'll credit him. Think about that.


I've thought that myself. The truth is that economic policy by a president doesn't start to have any impact on the overall economy until around 4 years after implementation and even then it's somewhat limited. I get infuriated every time I hear Romney rattle off numbers about jobs lost and the even deficit/debt, most of which has absolutely nothing to do with what Obama has done and more to do with what was already there. Romney himself knows this and is being intellectually dishonest to win. That's his thing though; say anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:18:06 AM

gtraz: By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.


upload.wikimedia.org
"Go on..."
 
2012-10-19 09:18:29 AM

gtraz: By that logic the GOP could run a ham sandwich and win.


That would be a candidate I could really enjoy a beer with.
 
2012-10-19 09:18:34 AM

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


malvasiabianca.org
 
2012-10-19 09:20:47 AM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.


LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.
 
2012-10-19 09:21:05 AM
So, there's a 77% chance of him getting 50+% of the vote?

Well, that means...something.
 
2012-10-19 09:21:13 AM
CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.



Why is everything a war with Conservatives?
 
2012-10-19 09:23:32 AM
Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election.

"For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner," he said.


So, did it predict Bush would win in 2000? He sure as hell didn't win the popular vote.
 
2012-10-19 09:24:18 AM

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: CampusReform.org is designed to provide conservative activists with the resources, networking capabilities, and skills they need to revolutionize the struggle against leftist bias and abuse on college campuses.

Created to give conservatives powerful new weapons in their fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation of citizens, politicians, and members of the media, CampusReform.org facilitates the establishment of conservative student networks and supports their development as a powerful voice of activism on their campuses. It makes available new opportunities for groups' interaction with alumni, parents, faculty, and other members of the broader community interested in taking a stand for conservative principles on America's college campuses.

Connecting up-to-date communications technologies to a principled stand for limited government, the free market, national defense, and traditional values, CampusReform.org makes possible a new generation of student activism to identify, expose, and combat the radical left now.


Why is everything a war with Conservatives?


War makes rape more accessible. And boy, do they love rape.
 
2012-10-19 09:27:20 AM

HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

 
2012-10-19 09:28:07 AM
 
2012-10-19 09:34:39 AM

GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.


The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:38:51 AM
Let me be the first to note that CU hasn't successfully predicted anything.
 
2012-10-19 09:40:55 AM

Lost Thought 00: TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.

I think that would cause open revolution


The thing that has kept the Electoral College around for so long (even when it seems like it's an anachronism) is that is scales well. Can you imagine the Derp-fest that would occur if a nation of 150+ million voters had to do a recount.
 
2012-10-19 09:40:57 AM
Hmm, who to believe... man with numbers, or man with assertions of gut feelings?
 
2012-10-19 09:42:18 AM

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


So like the AGW studies?
 
2012-10-19 09:42:51 AM
Would be delicious if he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college... all these retards that have shouted "we're not a democracy, we're a republic!" and defended the supreme court for years will do a 180 so hard they'll break their necks.
 
2012-10-19 09:43:54 AM

gtraz: GanjSmokr: HotWingConspiracy: Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey.

LOL no

It was created this year and has predicted nothing.

The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.

The shiatty blog is wrong. Follow the links back to CU and you'll see the model was only built this year and uses historical data available only since 1980. They fit that data to the elections since then and low and behold matched the results. They haven't predicted anything.


I find it surprising that I even read the blog article... I'm not doing more work than that!
 
2012-10-19 09:46:04 AM

Summoner101: Relevant


No candidate that uses a nickname rather than his given first name (or its derivatives) has ever won. (Ike still used Dwight quite often.)

No incumbent of direct African descent has ever been re-elected.
 
2012-10-19 09:47:24 AM
Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....
 
2012-10-19 09:47:25 AM

Epoch_Zero: Hmm, who to believe... man with numbers, or man with assertions of gut feelings?


i1162.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-19 09:48:21 AM

JOHN MCENROE MY CHILDHOOD NEMESIS: Why is everything a war with Conservatives?


When you are conservative you are constantly under assault by reality. I'm sure it feels like a war.
 
2012-10-19 09:49:32 AM

max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.


Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check
 
2012-10-19 09:54:15 AM

TripSixes: It would be delicious if Obama won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Then there might be a bipartisan effort to get rid of the electoral college.


Ok, delicious except for having to swim through the morass of morons.


There was a call to get rid of the electoral college when Bush won in 2000. What's your point?
 
2012-10-19 09:54:34 AM

Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....


No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:03 AM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: UColorado has hit the last 7 elections on the nosey. But that's not important right now. Romney has a lot of money and binders. Let's focus on what is important, derpers.

Hurry November.


As other posters have said, they don't predict anything. Silver has in 2008. The UC model is flawed.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:39 AM

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


My educated guess: lies can only help you in the short term.
 
2012-10-19 09:55:59 AM

vygramul: max_pooper: Nate Silver is currently showing Obama with a 70.1% chance of winning. Who am I supposed to believe?

I think I'll go with the nerdy Jewish kid. Jews are good at that math stuff.

Yeah - I just saw that. It's a huge jump and I'd be interested in knowing what just happened.

/In b4 Silver cashed Obama Campaign check


Very good state level polling data for Obama yesterday. That is what happened.
 
2012-10-19 09:56:20 AM
i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-19 09:57:09 AM
I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.
 
2012-10-19 09:57:56 AM

Hollie Maea: Mercutio74: Wow... 8 correct predictions. With a sample size that large the predictive value is impressive indeed....

No, zero predictions. Basically they took 8 data points and fit an equation that would fit all data points. Then they take that equation and see what it says about this election. It would have to get several elections right before you would want to start talking about predictive power. But the fact that it is so far off (no one thinks there is anywhere near a 77 percent chance of a Romney victory) suggests to me that it won't get it's string of successes. Most likely after this election they will add this election and come up with a new equation which will get the next one wrong. It's important to stress that this "model" has already shown itself to be wrong, because even if Romney wins they put the odds way too high.


I stopped paying attention to the article when I realized the writer couldn't tell the difference between a model and a poll. CampusReform.org indeed - they should start by reforming their stats classes.
 
2012-10-19 09:58:32 AM

IlGreven: Summoner101: Relevant

No candidate that uses a nickname rather than his given first name (or its derivatives) has ever won. (Ike still used Dwight quite often.)

No incumbent of direct African descent has ever been re-elected.


No incumbent who saw the Superbowl champions lose their home opener to a team that was sub-500 by mid-October was ever re-elected.

No challenger who saw the NYY swept out of the wild card series ever won against an incumbent.
 
2012-10-19 09:59:09 AM

DubyaHater: [i.qkme.me image 402x604]


i1.kym-cdn.com
 
2012-10-19 10:00:07 AM

SithLord: I'm ready for the riots should Romney win. The tears of the outraged will be so sweet and delicious.


I think the riots would be in case of an Obama win. The GOP seems to be cherry picking some curious data analysis and making it seem like Romney's got a chance. In fact, the polling in the states that he needs to win are trending in the opposite way. Even if those swing states stay put, he still loses handily.
 
2012-10-19 10:03:18 AM
Why do the conservatives insist on deluding themselves this way? Isn't it obvious that this prediction is a major outlier? Is it that important to swaddle yourself in thoughts of a comfortable outcome that you're willing to risk major disappointment?

I don't know the answer to any of these questions, but this prediliction towards bubble building is exactly why I no longer want to put you people in charge of anything. Not the dog pound, let alone the presidency.
 
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