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(Reuters)   Mind the (enthusiasm) gap: more Democrats than Republicans are voting early   (reuters.com) divider line 228
    More: Interesting, Democrats, Republican, Republican John McCain, obama, Reuters, Michael McDonald, swing states, swing voters  
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2181 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Oct 2012 at 1:02 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-14 12:34:45 PM
Wow. Now I really wonder why they wanted to quash these votes. I'm stumped. Someone help me out.
 
2012-10-14 12:41:07 PM
 
2012-10-14 12:51:15 PM
Vote early and often, it's the Democrat way
 
2012-10-14 12:54:24 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: Vote early and often, it's the Democrat way


At least on those days they isn't being lazy and shiftless like those crack smokers usually are. Right, brother?
 
2012-10-14 01:00:46 PM
This seems to be the biggest question mark over on 538 -- how to factor the contradictory polling data that says Republican voters are more likely to vote, with the reports that Dems are outvoting the Republicans by large margins in early voting.

I think there are two factors: 1. A lot of those votes were sent in before the media over-hype of the first debate, and 2. Obama's GOTV effort crushes Romney's, just as it did McCain's. I read a report a couple of months ago that the Obama Campaign had more than double the field offices in Florida that Romney had.
 
2012-10-14 01:03:45 PM
Yeah! Let's end that damn Terrorist early voting once and for all for the good of america!!! Are you with me??
 
2012-10-14 01:07:35 PM
Freepers: Small sample, skewed cross tabs. Typical 'rat trick polls.
 
2012-10-14 01:07:43 PM
i'm actually heading down to DNC headquarters in about an hour or so. anyone in/near the Carlisle area is more than welcome to join me!
 
2012-10-14 01:10:08 PM

shower_in_my_socks: This seems to be the biggest question mark over on 538 -- how to factor the contradictory polling data that says Republican voters are more likely to vote, with the reports that Dems are outvoting the Republicans by large margins in early voting.

I think there are two factors: 1. A lot of those votes were sent in before the media over-hype of the first debate, and 2. Obama's GOTV effort crushes Romney's, just as it did McCain's. I read a report a couple of months ago that the Obama Campaign had more than double the field offices in Florida that Romney had.


I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless. I think this will be reflected in the outcome.
 
2012-10-14 01:10:54 PM

shower_in_my_socks: This seems to be the biggest question mark over on 538 -- how to factor the contradictory polling data that says Republican voters are more likely to vote, with the reports that Dems are outvoting the Republicans by large margins in early voting.

I think there are two factors: 1. A lot of those votes were sent in before the media over-hype of the first debate, and 2. Obama's GOTV effort crushes Romney's, just as it did McCain's. I read a report a couple of months ago that the Obama Campaign had more than double the field offices in Florida that Romney had.


the GOTV effort from the Obama campaign is VERY motivated. I don't think i've even seen a Romney campaign worker yet.
 
2012-10-14 01:12:02 PM

Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless.



But then that should be showing up in the "likely voter" polls.
 
2012-10-14 01:13:03 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless.


But then that should be showing up in the "likely voter" polls.


yes but it never hurts to point out just what sort of horrors life under Romney/Ryan would bring to this country.
 
2012-10-14 01:13:06 PM
I'm certainly looking forward to voting in Oregon next week when I get my ballot...STRAIGHT TICKET REPUBLICAN. (No, not really).
 
2012-10-14 01:13:06 PM

Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless. I think this will be reflected in the outcome.


I don't understand.

How can you not want this magical budget of a 20% tax cut across the board, a 2 trillion increase in military spending, a maintain of social spending, and elimination of the deficit, all paid for via closing a few tax code loopholes that only detrimentally impact the 1%?

I think it's fantastic.
 
2012-10-14 01:13:53 PM
Damn libtards, didn't you get our calls? Republicans vote from January 20, 2009 to November 6, 2012. Libtards (especially enthusiastic libtards) vote November 7, 2012.

blog.garagepunknyc.com
 
2012-10-14 01:16:10 PM

Sock Ruh Tease: [blog.garagepunknyc.com image 400x347]



Will somebody please get that crying eagle a damn drink already?
 
2012-10-14 01:17:33 PM

starsrift: Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless. I think this will be reflected in the outcome.

I don't understand.

How can you not want this magical budget of a 20% tax cut across the board, a 2 trillion increase in military spending, a maintain of social spending, and elimination of the deficit, all paid for via closing a few tax code loopholes that only detrimentally impact the 1%?

I think it's fantastic.


I'm looking forward to the all-expenses paid trip to Iran! Of course after a dozen years of war Romney will have to reinstate the draft instate "compulsory patriotism" in order to have enough cannon fodder.
 
2012-10-14 01:20:18 PM

Whiskey Pete: starsrift: Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless. I think this will be reflected in the outcome.

I don't understand.

How can you not want this magical budget of a 20% tax cut across the board, a 2 trillion increase in military spending, a maintain of social spending, and elimination of the deficit, all paid for via closing a few tax code loopholes that only detrimentally impact the 1%?

I think it's fantastic.

I'm looking forward to the all-expenses paid trip to Iran! Of course after a dozen years of war Romney will have to reinstate the draft instate "compulsory patriotism" in order to have enough cannon fodder.


the GOP policy of no abortions and no birth control suddenly starts to make a lot more sense....
 
2012-10-14 01:21:41 PM
Interestingly, if Obama wins Ohio and Iowa, the two states where he has a big lead in early voting, he'll still win the election even if he loses all the other battleground states.

Link
 
2012-10-14 01:23:21 PM
Gee, the political party most closely affiliated with voter fraud and Nazi Germany has an early lead in the polls. I'm shocked. I really am.
 
2012-10-14 01:23:37 PM

Weaver95: the GOP policy of no abortions and no birth control suddenly starts to make a lot more sense....


I've actually seen posts in the Freepersphere indicating that Iran poses a threat to 'Murica and that "something needs to be done". I often wish I was Canadian.
 
2012-10-14 01:25:52 PM

Sock Ruh Tease: Damn libtards, didn't you get our calls? Republicans vote from January 20, 2009 to November 6, 2012. Libtards (especially enthusiastic libtards) vote November 7, 2012.

[blog.garagepunknyc.com image 400x347]


sorry, i can't afford a land line.
 
2012-10-14 01:26:39 PM
There are more self identified Dems than Reps at this point so more Dems voting early should not come as any big surprise but it's still good to note. In terms of the "enthusiasm gap" I have yet to meet anyone I would describe as an "enthusiastic" Romney supporter yet. Heard a few derpers IRL go on about how much they admired Ryan"s "intellect" though. I just laughed at them until they stopped.
 
2012-10-14 01:26:50 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless.


But then that should be showing up in the "likely voter" polls.


I'm pretty sure "likely voters" means "voters who have voted every election for the past 15 or 20 years," which would exclude voters who are not old enough to have voted in all those elections (a demographic which Obama will win in a landslide).

It might also mean "voters who have voted in more than one presidential election," which would exclude voters whose first presidential election was 2008 -- either they were too young to vote in 2004 or arlier or they didn't care enough, and both groups are likely Obama voters
 
2012-10-14 01:27:06 PM
This is bad news for...

/Obama

//obviously
 
2012-10-14 01:28:27 PM
Pretty obvious that democrats are voting early because they think it may be illegal for them to vote next week
 
2012-10-14 01:28:32 PM

Mike_LowELL: Gee, the political party most closely affiliated with voter fraud and Nazi Germany has an early lead in the polls. I'm shocked. I really am.


You know who else had an early lead in the polls?

No, wait, you already done that one. Never mind.
 
2012-10-14 01:28:36 PM

Whiskey Pete: Weaver95: the GOP policy of no abortions and no birth control suddenly starts to make a lot more sense....

I've actually seen posts in the Freepersphere indicating that Iran poses a threat to 'Murica and that "something needs to be done". I often wish I was Canadian.


yeah, every time a Republican starts talking about invading Iran I ask them when they're going to join up and can I give them a lift to the enlistment center....they almost always change the subject at that point.
 
2012-10-14 01:30:59 PM
I see lost ballots.
 
2012-10-14 01:31:04 PM

King Something: shower_in_my_socks: Whiskey Pete: I have another theory: What Romney and Ryan would do to this country if elected frightens even the most lackadaisical voters shiatless.


But then that should be showing up in the "likely voter" polls.

I'm pretty sure "likely voters" means "voters who have voted every election for the past 15 or 20 years," which would exclude voters who are not old enough to have voted in all those elections (a demographic which Obama will win in a landslide).

It might also mean "voters who have voted in more than one presidential election," which would exclude voters whose first presidential election was 2008 -- either they were too young to vote in 2004 or arlier or they didn't care enough, and both groups are likely Obama voters


They might be excluding the Presidential only votes too. Voter turnout for midterms since 1972 have always been less than 40% of the voting age population, all Presidential elections at least 49%.
 
2012-10-14 01:32:06 PM
Will be completing my mail in ballot tonight and mailing that muthafarka tomorrow.
 
2012-10-14 01:34:07 PM

Weaver95: yeah, every time a Republican starts talking about invading Iran I ask them when they're going to join up and can I give them a lift to the enlistment center....they almost always change the subject at that point.


What I don't understand is why the prospect of another war in the Middle East doesn't put even the drooliest Foxtard off of a Romney vote.
 
2012-10-14 01:34:50 PM
I will be voting early as I teach at a charter school, so our buildings are not used as polling places, ergo we have school. I was somewhat surprised how easy it was to register to vote, as I had moved to North Carolina but not yet established residency. I had a proof of residency but they didn't ask for it. I will take one when early voting either way.

The one thing is that I have no clue what to do for local offices. Any suggestions for humorous write-in votes?
 
2012-10-14 01:36:34 PM

Jonny Chimpo: I will be voting early as I teach at a charter school, so our buildings are not used as polling places, ergo we have school. I was somewhat surprised how easy it was to register to vote, as I had moved to North Carolina but not yet established residency. I had a proof of residency but they didn't ask for it. I will take one when early voting either way.

The one thing is that I have no clue what to do for local offices. Any suggestions for humorous write-in votes?


"Weedlord Bonerhitler" seems to be a new favorite.
 
2012-10-14 01:36:53 PM
I've asked this question before, but what the heck I'll ask one more time.

Are early voters included in the likely voter count, or are they filtered out?
 
2012-10-14 01:37:08 PM

Whiskey Pete: I've actually seen posts in the Freepersphere indicating that Iran poses a threat to 'Murica and that "something needs to be done". I often wish I was Canadian.


You sure about that? We live under the quasi-democratic rule of this fundie:

www.mapleleaks.com

/we do have lovely socialized health care, however
 
2012-10-14 01:37:37 PM
Are all of the polls back to being biased again? It's hard to keep up with the GOP conspiracy theories.
 
2012-10-14 01:37:45 PM

Whiskey Pete: Jonny Chimpo: I will be voting early as I teach at a charter school, so our buildings are not used as polling places, ergo we have school. I was somewhat surprised how easy it was to register to vote, as I had moved to North Carolina but not yet established residency. I had a proof of residency but they didn't ask for it. I will take one when early voting either way.

The one thing is that I have no clue what to do for local offices. Any suggestions for humorous write-in votes?

"Weedlord Bonerhitler" seems to be a new favorite.


I do live in Charlotte, so I may write in Ric Flair for a local office
 
2012-10-14 01:38:31 PM

Whiskey Pete: Weaver95: yeah, every time a Republican starts talking about invading Iran I ask them when they're going to join up and can I give them a lift to the enlistment center....they almost always change the subject at that point.

What I don't understand is why the prospect of another war in the Middle East doesn't put even the drooliest Foxtard off of a Romney vote.


Because most rank and file GOP voters don't understand the implications of another war in the middle east.
 
2012-10-14 01:38:42 PM
www.politifake.org
 
2012-10-14 01:39:14 PM

I_Love_Cheesecake: Whiskey Pete: I've actually seen posts in the Freepersphere indicating that Iran poses a threat to 'Murica and that "something needs to be done". I often wish I was Canadian.

You sure about that? We live under the quasi-democratic rule of this fundie:

[www.mapleleaks.com image 452x452]

/we do have lovely socialized health care, however


Yeah, but you guys' have RUSH so it all evens out.
 
2012-10-14 01:39:25 PM

Whiskey Pete: What I don't understand is why the prospect of another war in the Middle East doesn't put even the drooliest Foxtard off of a Romney vote.


What, are you kidding? They love being on the winning team and getting to beat up on other countries and stuff. It's all justified too because terrorism. Plus, they don't have to sacrifice anything for it, just put it on your kids credit card.

/it also doesn't hurt not thinking through ramifications and that Iran is not Iraq, has four times the people that would be more united in their resistance to occupation and loss of their oil would cause a major energy crisis.
 
2012-10-14 01:40:34 PM

Weaver95: Because most rank and file GOP voters don't understand the implications of another war in the middle east.


I misunderestimated (sic) their stupidity, I reckon.
 
2012-10-14 01:40:34 PM

Weaver95: Because most rank and file GOP voters don't understand the implications of another war in the middle east.


Or, inarguably more frightening, they understand another war in the Middle East, especially one that involves Israel, will make the Jeeb come back, whisk all Real Americans to Hebbin', and leave us heathens burning in hell on Earth or what the fark ever.
 
2012-10-14 01:41:13 PM
I can see why Republicans in Ohio would want to put a stop to this.
 
2012-10-14 01:41:15 PM

Whiskey Pete: What I don't understand is why the prospect of another war in the Middle East doesn't put even the drooliest Foxtard off of a Romney vote.


They don't think there's going to be a war if Romney is elected. They believe that the world sees America as weak (Apology Tour, duh) and that Romney's tough stance and vast foreign policy experience will force Iran to back down.

/ This is what Republicans actually believe.
 
2012-10-14 01:41:31 PM

King Something:

I'm pretty sure "likely voters" means "voters who have voted every election for the past 15 or 20 years," which would exclude voters who are not old enough to have voted in all those elections (a demographic which Obama will win in a landslide).

It might also mean "voters who have voted in more than one presidential election," which would exclude voters whose first presidential election was 2008 -- either they were too young to vote in 2004 or arlier or they didn't care enough, and both groups are likely Obama voters


I'm 100% sure you don't know what you're talking about.

Different firms use different methods. Some just ask how likely you think it is you will vote; some ask whether you voted in previous elections. Some use demographics - among your age/race/income group what was the previous Registered to Actual ratio.

Saw a study using '08 polls that compared Likely voter responses to actual turnout. Among people who said 100% certainty they would vote, 87% voted. Among those who put their liklihood at under 50% (ie "probably won't") it was 55%.

RV vs LV should be very narrow this cycle, I think most pollsters are missing that. PPP has a good method by using the same respondents and a larger sample
 
2012-10-14 01:41:44 PM

keithgabryelski: Pretty obvious that democrats are voting early because they think it may be illegal for them to vote again next week


FTFY.
 
2012-10-14 01:42:33 PM

Mitt Romneys Tax Return: Whiskey Pete: What I don't understand is why the prospect of another war in the Middle East doesn't put even the drooliest Foxtard off of a Romney vote.

They don't think there's going to be a war if Romney is elected. They believe that the world sees America as weak (Apology Tour, duh) and that Romney's tough stance and vast foreign policy experience will force Iran to back down.

/ This is what Republicans actually believe.


That and Romney said in Ohio yesterday something along the lines of spending enough money on Defense to the point that no one would test it.

Made me barf when I heard that on the news last night.
 
2012-10-14 01:42:35 PM
At this point we're calling that the desperation gap.
 
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