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(Talking Points Memo)   Gary Johnson could Ross Perot Mitt Romney in John McCain's state   (talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 113
    More: Interesting, John McCain, Jeff Flake  
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3153 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Oct 2012 at 8:04 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



113 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-10-13 03:58:18 PM
Poll shows Obama ahead in AZ by 2 points. Could be an outlier, or could be a bunch of pissed-off Latinos.
 
2012-10-13 04:07:02 PM
I'll believe it when some other polling company publishes similar results. Rocky Mountain isn't the most reliable outfit.
 
2012-10-13 04:08:15 PM
...actually, this aint a bad headline.
 
2012-10-13 04:18:11 PM

cman: ...actually, this aint a bad headline.



THANK YOU.
 
2012-10-13 04:21:37 PM
It is most likely an outlier, since Romney has been beating Obama in AZ by an average of 8-10 % points.

HOWEVER, per Nate Silver, this poll included Spanish-speaking interviews. If that's the cause for the spike, then Romney has a farking problem.
 
2012-10-13 04:45:39 PM

dr_blasto: I'll believe it when some other polling company publishes similar results. Rocky Mountain isn't the most reliable outfit.


The inclusion of Spanish-language questions is interesting, but yeah, it's an outlier at the moment.
 
2012-10-13 04:51:05 PM
Bob Dole
 
2012-10-13 04:53:45 PM

GAT_00: dr_blasto: I'll believe it when some other polling company publishes similar results. Rocky Mountain isn't the most reliable outfit.

The inclusion of Spanish-language questions is interesting, but yeah, it's an outlier at the moment.


I'd like to see Spanish included in most polls and better use of cell phones across the board. It is the second most common (and growing) language after all.
 
2012-10-13 05:10:35 PM
That's the plan.
 
2012-10-13 05:13:25 PM
The headline is overly fussy.
 
2012-10-13 05:30:49 PM

violentsalvation: That's the plan.


What plan?
 
2012-10-13 06:52:03 PM

dr_blasto: violentsalvation: That's the plan.

What plan?


The plan with the power.
 
2012-10-13 06:55:16 PM

xanadian: The plan with the power.


What power?
 
2012-10-13 06:55:38 PM
not to assume this is actual the state of the race

Actual the state!

the Rocking Mountain poll does not have a great reputation

ROCKING MOUNTAIN!!!
 
2012-10-13 07:04:01 PM
I would say it is more "Ralph Nader"ing Romney in AZ.... unless we are predicting Johnson is going to get 15-25% of the vote in every state all of a sudden.
 
2012-10-13 07:26:16 PM

PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?


The power of Voodoo.
 
2012-10-13 07:27:48 PM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.


Who do?
 
2012-10-13 07:41:27 PM

xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?


That you do.
 
2012-10-13 08:06:02 PM
www.boardsandrec.com

Checkmate.
 
2012-10-13 08:09:48 PM
TPM has Romney up by only 1.7 in Arizona. :/
 
2012-10-13 08:14:07 PM
The half-Perot or the full-Perot? I've done the half-Perot, but I've heard from reputable sources you NEVER go full-Perot.
 
2012-10-13 08:14:42 PM

fusillade762: xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.


images3.wikia.nocookie.net

BEEEeee Quiet!
 
2012-10-13 08:15:24 PM

fusillade762: xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.


The power of the babe?
 
2012-10-13 08:15:54 PM
I'm not greedy. I'll just settle for Virgil Goode ripping Virginia out from under him.
 
2012-10-13 08:16:25 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Poll shows Obama ahead in AZ by 2 points. Could be an outlier, or could be a bunch of pissed-off Latinos.


AZ like Texas is one of those states that is going to switch blue overtime if the GOP doesn't do more to adapt to the changing demographics in both states.
 
2012-10-13 08:16:44 PM
Democrats have certainly reached their Nader.
 
2012-10-13 08:17:31 PM

dr_blasto: Rocky Mountain isn't the most reliable outfit.



According to Nate Silver, "The poll comes from a firm, the Behavior Research Center, that has had good results in the past. And almost all of its interviews postdated the Denver debate." I don't know what Behavior Research Center's connection is to Rocky Mountain.

On the flip side, he points out that Obama won nationally by 7 points in 2008, but still lost AZ by 8. So it's unlikely Obama will win there. I think it's a case where Obama winning Arizona would only happen in a scenario where it would be the least of Romney's worries.
 
2012-10-13 08:19:46 PM

Mrtraveler01: shower_in_my_socks: Poll shows Obama ahead in AZ by 2 points. Could be an outlier, or could be a bunch of pissed-off Latinos.

AZ like Texas is one of those states that is going to switch blue overtime if the GOP doesn't do more to adapt to the changing demographics in both states.


Dubya was trying to do that and was doing a decent job, but when the extreme Right said no to his comprehensive immigration, the Republicans took a major blow in Latino support and will have a very hard time getting it back.
 
2012-10-13 08:19:54 PM
If Obama is competitive in Barry Goldwater's home state, it only hammers home the reality that Nixon's Southern Strategy-reliant GOP is falling apart. And that can't happen too soon
 
2012-10-13 08:20:07 PM
id not be too surprised if earlier polls had not caught much of the Hispanic voters. Would be friggen hilarious if the repubs some how lost in Texas

The wargarbal trying to explain it would be hilarious.
 
2012-10-13 08:22:20 PM

dr_blasto: GAT_00: dr_blasto: I'll believe it when some other polling company publishes similar results. Rocky Mountain isn't the most reliable outfit.

The inclusion of Spanish-language questions is interesting, but yeah, it's an outlier at the moment.

I'd like to see Spanish included in most polls and better use of cell phones across the board. It is the second most common (and growing) language after all.


Sorry, I don't speak cell phone.
 
2012-10-13 08:29:11 PM

TofuTheAlmighty: If Obama is competitive in Barry Goldwater's home state, it only hammers home the reality that Nixon's Southern Strategy-reliant GOP is falling apart. And that can't happen too soon



I read a story a few months ago where someone high up in the GOP election strategy food chain said this would be the last election that they can run like this. The strategy of relying entirely on the white vote will be history in a few years. Hence, they're throwing everything they've got into this thing now, in order to grab as much power and do as much damage to social programs and minority rights as they can before they lose control.

This is why we MUST WIN, and why anyone to the left of George W. Bush should be voting straight Democratic ticket and donating as much as they can to stop this extremist shiat.
 
2012-10-13 08:30:36 PM

fusillade762: xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.


I do so love the internet sometimes.
 
2012-10-13 08:32:38 PM

fusillade762: xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.


Stop rhyming, I mean it!
 
2012-10-13 08:32:56 PM
Virgil Goode is likely to have a bigger impact on the election than Johnson will
 
2012-10-13 08:34:18 PM

Empty Matchbook: fusillade762: xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: PacManDreaming: xanadian: The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.

I do so love the internet sometimes.


But you only said "internet" once.
 
2012-10-13 08:34:34 PM
The plan with the power.

What power?

The power of Voodoo.

Who do?

That you do.


The flagon with the dragon holds the brew that is true!
 
2012-10-13 08:35:10 PM

TofuTheAlmighty: If Obama is competitive in Barry Goldwater's home state, it only hammers home the reality that Nixon's Southern Strategy-reliant GOP is falling apart. And that can't happen too soon


Barry Goldwater would be considered a RINO today. Remember that he got beaten by McCain, who's now actually to the freakin right of old Barry.
 
2012-10-13 08:35:27 PM
i.imgur.com

Buckets.
 
2012-10-13 08:36:08 PM

12349876: Dubya was trying to do that and was doing a decent job, but when the extreme Right said no to his comprehensive immigration, the Republicans took a major blow in Latino support and will have a very hard time getting it back.


It's probably why he became president, Bush kept the Latino vote close. I'm not sure why the GOP wants to portray a xenophobic and racist attitude, there are plenty of conservative black, Latino, Asian, Jewish, Arab, women, and gay people but the GOP turns them away.
 
2012-10-13 08:38:18 PM
imageshack.us
 
2012-10-13 08:38:38 PM

Dwight_Yeast: TofuTheAlmighty: If Obama is competitive in Barry Goldwater's home state, it only hammers home the reality that Nixon's Southern Strategy-reliant GOP is falling apart. And that can't happen too soon

Barry Goldwater would be considered a RINO today. Remember that he got beaten by McCain, who's now actually to the freakin right of old Barry.


Not a RINO. He would have been best buds with Ron Paul, and an outcast from the party powers-that-be, but then that wouldn't be any different from back when he ran for Pres
 
2012-10-13 08:38:49 PM

shower_in_my_socks: On the flip side, he points out that Obama won nationally by 7 points in 2008, but still lost AZ by 8. So it's unlikely Obama will win there.


Couple of points against your theory. First, Obama was running against John McCain, R-AZ. Secondly, the combination of the Latino population rising rapidly and Jan Brewer doing everything except make them all wear gold stars is going to make for a substantial increase in Latino votes for Obama in Arizona.
 
2012-10-13 08:39:32 PM

TheJoe03: 12349876: Dubya was trying to do that and was doing a decent job, but when the extreme Right said no to his comprehensive immigration, the Republicans took a major blow in Latino support and will have a very hard time getting it back.

It's probably why he became president, Bush kept the Latino vote close. I'm not sure why the GOP wants to portray a xenophobic and racist attitude, there are plenty of conservative black, Latino, Asian, Jewish, Arab, women, and gay people but the GOP turns them away.


The GOP is not very good at political science. I guess that's what happens when you take all your advice from Liberty University
 
2012-10-13 08:41:23 PM

Gwyrddu: Democrats have certainly reached their Nader.


HAAA!
 
2012-10-13 08:52:50 PM
Ctrl+F "snowbird"

"Not found"

As much as I'd love to see this happen, it won't. Many of the folks that are voting in AZ's general election aren't in AZ yet; they'll get there end of October. Any AZ poll right now should add 5% to the Republican candidate to account for the snowbird vote.
 
2012-10-13 08:55:04 PM

ariseatex: Ctrl+F "snowbird"

"Not found"

As much as I'd love to see this happen, it won't. Many of the folks that are voting in AZ's general election aren't in AZ yet; they'll get there end of October. Any AZ poll right now should add 5% to the Republican candidate to account for the snowbird vote.


Wouldn't snowbirds vote in the "Northern" state they spend most of the year in and where they consider their "primary residence" to be.
 
2012-10-13 08:55:43 PM

ariseatex: Ctrl+F "snowbird"

"Not found"

As much as I'd love to see this happen, it won't. Many of the folks that are voting in AZ's general election aren't in AZ yet; they'll get there end of October. Any AZ poll right now should add 5% to the Republican candidate to account for the snowbird vote.



How many snowbirds are registered AZ voters, though? Aren't most of them sending their absentee ballots back to Minnesota, etc.?
 
2012-10-13 08:56:49 PM

12349876: ariseatex: Ctrl+F "snowbird"

"Not found"

As much as I'd love to see this happen, it won't. Many of the folks that are voting in AZ's general election aren't in AZ yet; they'll get there end of October. Any AZ poll right now should add 5% to the Republican candidate to account for the snowbird vote.

Wouldn't snowbirds vote in the "Northern" state they spend most of the year in and where they consider their "primary residence" to be.


Many will claim primary residence in AZ due to lower state taxes. Same with FL
 
2012-10-13 08:56:53 PM

Flying Lasagna Monster: shower_in_my_socks: On the flip side, he points out that Obama won nationally by 7 points in 2008, but still lost AZ by 8. So it's unlikely Obama will win there.

Couple of points against your theory. First, Obama was running against John McCain, R-AZ. Secondly, the combination of the Latino population rising rapidly and Jan Brewer doing everything except make them all wear gold stars is going to make for a substantial increase in Latino votes for Obama in Arizona.


And if Obama carries Arizona because of Hispanic voters, expect gold stars for Latinos in that state. And possibly a pogrom that will make Kristallnacht look like a ding-dong ditch.
 
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