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(The New York Times)   One more day of this and the rights are going to be calling Nate Silver a genius   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 523
    More: Interesting, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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8639 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Oct 2012 at 4:35 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-13 12:57:05 AM
people.virginia.edu
 
2012-10-13 01:01:24 AM
Nobody ever went broke betting on the stupidity of the American public.
 
2012-10-13 01:05:53 AM

abb3w: [people.virginia.edu image 256x22]


It's honestly lagging a bit, since his model isn't designed to swing fast. This means it will go into positive GOP territory, and then it won't swing back right away if the polls tick back up.
 
2012-10-13 01:10:35 AM
Dear God,

We both know most of us really don't think you exist, but if you do, we really, really, really don't need another four years of George W. Romney, and his drooling sidekick, who makes Monica Goodling look like Robert F**king Oppenheimer. We know we've biatched that Obama hasn't lived up to expectations, but really, isn't this a little harsh?

Sincerely,

People who do not huff gold paint.
 
2012-10-13 01:10:36 AM

GAT_00: abb3w: [people.virginia.edu image 256x22]

It's honestly lagging a bit, since his model isn't designed to swing fast. This means it will go into positive GOP territory, and then it won't swing back right away if the polls tick back up.


I'm a little worried about how quickly it dropped. last time I saw a drop like that was when my Bear Stearns stock bounced.
 
2012-10-13 01:14:42 AM
So, the party that can't do simple math now understands statistics?
 
2012-10-13 01:15:18 AM

ManateeGag: GAT_00: abb3w: [people.virginia.edu image 256x22]

It's honestly lagging a bit, since his model isn't designed to swing fast. This means it will go into positive GOP territory, and then it won't swing back right away if the polls tick back up.

I'm a little worried about how quickly it dropped. last time I saw a drop like that was when my Bear Stearns stock bounced.


I'm not. Have you seen the national polls? Even the state numbers don't look that good. I think his model is a little too cautious at this point.
 
2012-10-13 01:19:30 AM

GAT_00: abb3w: [people.virginia.edu image 256x22]

It's honestly lagging a bit, since his model isn't designed to swing fast. This means it will go into positive GOP territory, and then it won't swing back right away if the polls tick back up.


So, in other words, 2008 Obama needs to show up in a hurry before next Tuesday if he wants a chance at winning in 3 weeks?
 
2012-10-13 01:49:40 AM

The Onion is prophetic: So, in other words, 2008 Obama needs to show up in a hurry before next Tuesday if he wants a chance at winning in 3 weeks?


As depressing as it is to see the 2 Stooges gaining so much ground, remember that Obama and his campaign team are the guys who put a black man named HUSSEIN in the White House.

While they might have misunderestimated Romney in the 1st debate, they're not likely to repeat that mistake again.
 
2012-10-13 01:52:21 AM

Eddie Adams from Torrance: The Onion is prophetic: So, in other words, 2008 Obama needs to show up in a hurry before next Tuesday if he wants a chance at winning in 3 weeks?

As depressing as it is to see the 2 Stooges gaining so much ground, remember that Obama and his campaign team are the guys who put a black man named HUSSEIN in the White House.

While they might have misunderestimated Romney in the 1st debate, they're not likely to repeat that mistake again.


And there's some question to how solid Romney's gains are, given the magnitude of the switch. People don't generally flip like that and stay there. Doesn't mean they can't, but they are more likely to be won back if gone after the right way. A convincing debate performance is necessary.
 
2012-10-13 01:56:02 AM
After seeing clips of Obama's performance in that debate, all I could picture was the scene from every boxing movie ever where the mafia guy comes into the locker room before the fight and warns the champ that he better go down in the third round or something real bad might happen to his wife and kids.
 
2012-10-13 02:05:41 AM

Smashed Hat: After seeing clips of Obama's performance in that debate, all I could picture was the scene from every boxing movie ever where the mafia guy comes into the locker room before the fight and warns the champ that he better go down in the third round or something real bad might happen to his wife and kids.


There's only one book you need to read to understand how the world works - The Godfather.
 
2012-10-13 02:19:35 AM

Triumph: Smashed Hat: After seeing clips of Obama's performance in that debate, all I could picture was the scene from every boxing movie ever where the mafia guy comes into the locker room before the fight and warns the champ that he better go down in the third round or something real bad might happen to his wife and kids.

There's only one book you need to read to understand how the world works - The Godfather.


Funny -- I had this idea in my head a little while back that Obama would, immediately after the election, be like Michael at the end of Godfather II, with Sheldon Adelson getting the Moe Greene treatment. But I can't figure out who Fredo is in this scenario.
 
2012-10-13 02:25:48 AM

simplicimus: So, the party that can't do simple math now understands statistics?


The good kind of statistics show President Black Muslim Hitler down eleventy bajillion points, so much so that the US is considered making China a new state just so that many more electoral votes can vote against Obama. You know, liberal media and all that.
 
2012-10-13 02:36:57 AM

DrBenway: Funny -- I had this idea in my head a little while back that Obama would, immediately after the election, be like Michael at the end of Godfather II, with Sheldon Adelson getting the Moe Greene treatment. But I can't figure out who Fredo is in this scenario.


Obama's Fredo is the Wall Street bankers. He gave them everything they ever wanted and they still stabbed him in the back. If Nate Silver starts projecting a Romney win, I might have to break down and read THIS, just to see how outrageous the guys who jabber about a "Mormon Mafia" are with their claims.
 
2012-10-13 02:37:01 AM

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: simplicimus: So, the party that can't do simple math now understands statistics?

The good kind of statistics show President Black Muslim Hitler down eleventy bajillion points, so much so that the US is considered making China a new state just so that many more electoral votes can vote against Obama. You know, liberal media and all that.


I'll vote your post as funny when it get available. Otherwise, 1,347,350,000 communists can't hurt the Republican party.
 
2012-10-13 02:39:43 AM
So the polls *aren't* skewed now?
 
2012-10-13 04:32:58 AM
Feels like 538 is lagging a bit, although I realize that's a result of the way their model is built.

All of the polls that were showing a bump for Romney started leveling off a few days ago. This is true at the National level, and also with Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan -- the graphs for those all look the same, with the "bleeding stopped" and the bump either leveling-off, or beginning to fade a little. Even in Virginia, where Romney has taken a slight lead, things have leveled-off. The only state that still seems to have momentum moving even farther into Romney's territory is Florida.

I feel like Silver's model should plateau to match, but it still shows Obama in free-fall and Romney skyrocketing.
 
2012-10-13 04:40:00 AM
It'll be a pretty interesting weekend once the post-VP debate polls start coming out. They're not known to swing polls too much, but neither was the first Presidential debate.
 
2012-10-13 04:41:09 AM

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: simplicimus: So, the party that can't do simple math now understands statistics?

The good kind of statistics show President Black Muslim Hitler down eleventy brazillian points, so much so that the US is considered making China a new state just so that many more electoral votes can vote against Obama. You know, liberal media and all that.


FTFY
 
2012-10-13 04:44:47 AM

MisterTweak: Dear God,

We both know most of us really don't think you exist, but if you do, we really, really, really don't need another four years of George W. Romney, and his drooling sidekick, who makes Monica Goodling look like Robert F**king Oppenheimer. We know we've biatched that Obama hasn't lived up to expectations, but really, isn't this a little harsh?

Sincerely,

People who do not huff gold paint.



Dear Humans,

take responsibility of your own farkups for once

Signed

God
 
2012-10-13 04:49:25 AM
Stock tip for everyone. If Romney wins, invest heavily in the torch and pitchfork market.
 
2012-10-13 04:50:09 AM

shower_in_my_socks: Feels like 538 is lagging a bit, although I realize that's a result of the way their model is built.

All of the polls that were showing a bump for Romney started leveling off a few days ago. This is true at the National level, and also with Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan -- the graphs for those all look the same, with the "bleeding stopped" and the bump either leveling-off, or beginning to fade a little. Even in Virginia, where Romney has taken a slight lead, things have leveled-off. The only state that still seems to have momentum moving even farther into Romney's territory is Florida.

I feel like Silver's model should plateau to match, but it still shows Obama in free-fall and Romney skyrocketing.



I like the fact that he actually pointed out that his methodology hasn't changed at all since he started. So whether people agree or disagree with how he does things, no one can say that he's tweaking it to support any particular outcome.
 
2012-10-13 04:54:29 AM
When Nate Silver has Romney at over 270 EV, then I'm going to get worried.

/Obama may lose the popular vote, but he'll still win the election.
 
2012-10-13 05:01:45 AM

Eddie Adams from Torrance: The Onion is prophetic: So, in other words, 2008 Obama needs to show up in a hurry before next Tuesday if he wants a chance at winning in 3 weeks?

As depressing as it is to see the 2 Stooges gaining so much ground, remember that Obama and his campaign team are the guys who put a black man named HUSSEIN in the White House.

While they might have misunderestimated Romney in the 1st debate, they're not likely to repeat that mistake again.


what's infuriating is making the mistake in the first place. obummer muffed it bigtime. face-palmingly awful strategery for dealing with mitt's smug mendacity, knowing the mush-headed undecideds would be watching.

possibly fatal error. the popular vote will be a squeaker and there are still vote-suppression shenanigans in swing states to account for. it will be a nail-biter and possibly another voting clusterfark. joy.
 
2012-10-13 05:07:02 AM

RedPhoenix122: Stock tip for everyone. If Romney wins, invest heavily in the torch and pitchfork market.


I'm going to invest heavily in the lead paint chips market, because I've completely underestimated the incredible number that are being consumed.
 
2012-10-13 05:08:01 AM

RedPhoenix122: Stock tip for everyone. If Romney wins, invest heavily in the torch and pitchfork market.


oh there will be epic butthurt no matter who wins, but if it's obama, i think it's fairly obvious that it will be the right that becomes completely unglued, neck-deep they are in the derangement
 
2012-10-13 05:14:48 AM
You wanna know how to get Romney? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. *That's* the *Chicago* way! And that's how you get Romney. Now do you want to do that? Are you ready to do that? I'm offering you a deal. Do you want this deal?
 
2012-10-13 05:14:52 AM
Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power

Probably because the motherfarking media won't let the Debate Bump freaking die already.

Seems like every time I turn around they're crowing over how much traction Romney got over his amazing incredible astounding unprecedented debate victory!!!OMFG!!!! Zounds! You'd think a presidential candidate had never scored points over his opponent in a debate before. AND they're still masturbating over Romney's incredible astounding etc etc victory like it JUST HAPPENED THIS MORNING!!!

Give it a rest, guys. Other shiat has happened, you know.
 
2012-10-13 05:15:16 AM
I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.
 
2012-10-13 05:18:51 AM
Huh. He projects Warren with a 79% chance of victory over Brown in Mass, but the polls only give her a three point lead.
 
2012-10-13 05:19:59 AM

pnkgtr: I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.


1. mushy middle. 2. his implosion on stage was nixonesque. it was that bad.
 
2012-10-13 05:22:58 AM

pnkgtr: I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.


Because the system is broken.
 
2012-10-13 05:24:40 AM

wookiee cookie: pnkgtr: I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.

1. mushy middle. 2. his implosion on stage was nixonesque. it was that bad.


The fact is that Obama didn't implode, Romney simply exploded with bullshiat. He outshone Obama with a fiery shiat show. It was astounding.
 
2012-10-13 05:30:09 AM
I don't buy into Romney being a real threat yet, but... just... just why? Why is our country like this? How did this happen?

How can he even have a 1% chance of winning?

His disdain and antipathy towards the people of the country has been on display, even to the most sheltered of partisans.
There is nothing redeemable about the man or his running mate, no tangible benefit for electing him for 99.99% of the planet.

i49.tinypic.com
 
2012-10-13 05:30:20 AM

vrax: wookiee cookie: pnkgtr: I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.

1. mushy middle. 2. his implosion on stage was nixonesque. it was that bad.

The fact is that Obama didn't implode, Romney simply exploded with bullshiat. He outshone Obama with a fiery shiat show. It was astounding.


and obama didn't counterpunch, and ummed and looked down and away and came across completely weak and flatfooted. pretty implodey to me.
 
2012-10-13 05:31:05 AM
Now that the libtards Patron Saint of Statistics is on the verge of calling this election a TOSS UP, will the smirking, laughing, lip smacking, liberal circle jerk start to finally wind down in these forums? Are you Obama lovers starting to realize that you are in a fist fight, that the tide has turned, that Obama is not the architect of an elaborate rope a dope strategy? Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls. I highly recommend that you step outside of your self-congratulatory echo chamber and take a deep breath of reality.

Study it out, your boy Obama is in big trouble.
 
2012-10-13 05:32:39 AM

intelligent comment below: Dear Humans,

take responsibility of your own farkups for once

Signed

God


God, dude, come on. It's not MY farkup. Wait, are you suggesting I should "take care" of them, God?? Cause I think I could probably get away with it if I tell them I had your okay.
 
2012-10-13 05:33:52 AM

kingflower: Now that the libtards Patron Saint of Statistics is on the verge of calling this election a TOSS UP, will the smirking, laughing, lip smacking, liberal circle jerk start to finally wind down in these forums? Are you Obama lovers starting to realize that you are in a fist fight, that the tide has turned, that Obama is not the architect of an elaborate rope a dope strategy? Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls. I highly recommend that you step outside of your self-congratulatory echo chamber and take a deep breath of reality.

Study it out, your boy Obama is in big trouble.


Give it up. Nate is not partisan. He's a statistician. You know, math and stuff.
 
2012-10-13 05:34:17 AM

pnkgtr: I don't understand this. He's been president for nearly four years and people don't like him after a debate where his opponent lies, changes his positions and bullies the moderator? I don't get it at all.


It is... farking peculiar, and makes one think that a lot of polling activity is being very badly run. I figure it will pass.
 
2012-10-13 05:34:43 AM

intelligent comment below: MisterTweak: Dear God,

We both know most of us really don't think you exist, but if you do, we really, really, really don't need another four years of George W. Romney, and his drooling sidekick, who makes Monica Goodling look like Robert F**king Oppenheimer. We know we've biatched that Obama hasn't lived up to expectations, but really, isn't this a little harsh?

Sincerely,

People who do not huff gold paint.


Dear Humans,

take responsibility of your own farkups for once

Signed

God


Dear God,

We'll take care of the crap that happens because of science, such as fallout, pollution, etc, if you'll take care of the genocidal, ignorant ass-clowns who keep saying that they're trying to implement your kingdom on Earth.

Sincerely,
People who don't huff gold paint.

P.S. Could you take care of the multiple religious leaders who have a thing for young children?
 
2012-10-13 05:35:01 AM
So Nate isn't a "biased pollster" anymore? What do the unskewed polls look like now? Romney +9000?
 
2012-10-13 05:35:48 AM
Look, we all watched Romney screw up time and time again looking like he was trying to lose. The polls reflected that even though Obama really was in a very dodgy position. It doesn't really matter to most people that he was dealt a difficult hand, it's the President's job to deal with it and take responsibility for it even if rationally he can't change things much.
So all Romney had to do was to show, in a one-on-one display, that he wasn't as big an idiot as he had seemed for the last 6 months. And it doesn't matter if his math doesn't add up, just that he seems less insane than reports had made him out to be. That is the landscape to deal with.
Obama can not count on Romney continuing to self-destruct. He has to present a case for himself. Logic will not move many votes. It isn't just about energizing the base. Obama has to promote himself as somebody who can lead the nation, break congressional gridlock, and deliver some hope. The nation needs him to do that and he had better step up to the challenge.
 
2012-10-13 05:37:06 AM

God-is-a-Taco: I don't buy into Romney being a real threat yet, but... just... just why? Why is our country like this? How did this happen?

How can he even have a 1% chance of winning?

His disdain and antipathy towards the people of the country has been on display, even to the most sheltered of partisans.
There is nothing redeemable about the man or his running mate, no tangible benefit for electing him for 99.99% of the planet.


Because he's telling the lies that people want to believe. Everybody knows that he's lying through his teeth, lying his ass off, but maybe, maybe he could be telling the truth.

Clinton used this tactic. In fact, Romney's campaign has been very Clintonesque - lies and hammering the opponent about broken promises, though to a much greater extreme in both.
 
2012-10-13 05:38:24 AM

one small post for man: So Nate isn't a "biased pollster" anymore? What do the unskewed polls look like now? Romney +9000?


They're actually >9000
 
2012-10-13 05:39:49 AM

kingflower: Now that the libtards Patron Saint of Statistics is on the verge of calling this election a TOSS UP, will the smirking, laughing, lip smacking, liberal circle jerk start to finally wind down in these forums? Are you Obama lovers starting to realize that you are in a fist fight, that the tide has turned, that Obama is not the architect of an elaborate rope a dope strategy? Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls. I highly recommend that you step outside of your self-congratulatory echo chamber and take a deep breath of reality.

Study it out, your boy Obama is in big trouble.


Trollin', Trollin', Trollin', Keep the bullshiat rolling..Ryan's ass is swollen, HORSEshiat..
 
2012-10-13 05:41:22 AM

simplicimus: kingflower: Now that the libtards Patron Saint of Statistics is on the verge of calling this election a TOSS UP, will the smirking, laughing, lip smacking, liberal circle jerk start to finally wind down in these forums? Are you Obama lovers starting to realize that you are in a fist fight, that the tide has turned, that Obama is not the architect of an elaborate rope a dope strategy? Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls. I highly recommend that you step outside of your self-congratulatory echo chamber and take a deep breath of reality.

Study it out, your boy Obama is in big trouble.

Give it up. Nate is not partisan. He's a statistician. You know, math and stuff.


Thank you for making my point for me....math.
 
2012-10-13 05:43:38 AM

Alphax: kingflower: Now that the libtards Patron Saint of Statistics is on the verge of calling this election a TOSS UP, will the smirking, laughing, lip smacking, liberal circle jerk start to finally wind down in these forums? Are you Obama lovers starting to realize that you are in a fist fight, that the tide has turned, that Obama is not the architect of an elaborate rope a dope strategy? Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls. I highly recommend that you step outside of your self-congratulatory echo chamber and take a deep breath of reality.

Study it out, your boy Obama is in big trouble.

Trollin', Trollin', Trollin', Keep the bullshiat rolling..Ryan's ass is swollen, HORSEshiat..


Don't shoot the messenger, just calling it like I see it.....also employing math.
 
2012-10-13 05:49:23 AM

Summoner101: one small post for man: So Nate isn't a "biased pollster" anymore? What do the unskewed polls look like now? Romney +9000?

They're actually >9000


What? 9000?
 
2012-10-13 05:50:50 AM

kingflower: Are you starting to realize that Romney is the "generic Republican" that was easily defeating Obama in the polls.


Aw, its so cute when they become a little less behind in the polling. Enjoy it while it lasts, buttercup, your nominee is a blatant liar and a fraud after all.
 
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