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(NBC News)   NBC polls continue to show Romney surging against President Obama in swing states....including Ohio where they over sampled Democrats again   (firstread.nbcnews.com) divider line 358
    More: Interesting, President Obama, Mitt Romney, swing states, NBC, Ohio, Democrats, Carvalho, Marist  
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3216 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Oct 2012 at 2:38 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-11 11:54:21 AM
So are these the accurate polls because they fit the GOP narrative?
 
2012-10-11 12:00:48 PM
The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative,

Yep. Oversampled Democrats. Correct again, smitty.
 
2012-10-11 12:02:02 PM
Yes, it's definitely getting more interesting. If you go over to electoral-vote.com you'll see that it looks like there are 10 states that are in-play now. By my count, it looks like Obama needs 55 EV's to win and Romney needs 89 EV's to win. This race is tightening up. Get out there and volunteer if you live in or near one of the battleground states. Or go to a local phone bank to volunteer. Donate anything you can.
 
2012-10-11 12:04:56 PM

AdolfOliverPanties: The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative,

Yep. Oversampled Democrats. Correct again, smitty.



"But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week's poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats."
 
2012-10-11 12:08:30 PM

I_C_Weener: AdolfOliverPanties: The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative,

Yep. Oversampled Democrats. Correct again, smitty.


"But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week's poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats."


That's because of early voting.
 
2012-10-11 12:42:26 PM
Pollster is showing a slight rebound in Ohio for Obama today, with even Rasmussen giving him a 1 point lead in a poll released yesterday. And while the NBC Poll giving Obama a 6 point advantage may seem like an outlier, a CNN poll released on the 8th gave him a 4 point lead and also put him above 50%.
 
2012-10-11 12:45:08 PM

I_C_Weener: But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats



FTA: One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.


Early voting has been working against Romney for a few weeks now. He runs the risk of "too little too late" with his big debate bounce. He also has to build on it. If the bounce recedes, he loses. If it stays where it's at now, he probably loses. Biden and Obama need to both "show up" in their remaining debates and put this thing to bed.
 
2012-10-11 12:49:38 PM
It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.
 
2012-10-11 12:54:01 PM

Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.


This is why I can't trust Romney. Look at what his history is, as part of Bain Capital, with gutting companies, and people don't think he's going to do this to the country?
 
2012-10-11 01:19:03 PM

Peter von Nostrand: So are these the accurate polls because they fit the GOP narrative?


this this MORE THIS AND ONLY THIS!

so is it time to panic yet??
 
2012-10-11 01:21:49 PM

Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.


My son's in the military now, and I'm definitely worried about Romney getting into the White House. That farker would not have any problem sending my son over to Syria or Iran. He's a sociopath. He has no compunctions about sending soldiers over there to score points with Israel.
 
2012-10-11 01:22:00 PM

RedPhoenix122: This is why I can't trust Romney. Look at what his history is, as part of Bain Capital, with gutting companies, and people don't think he's going to do this to the country?


He's unless he's personally able to profit from it and congress goes along with it.
 
2012-10-11 01:26:13 PM

Lando Lincoln: Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.

My son's in the military now, and I'm definitely worried about Romney getting into the White House. That farker would not have any problem sending my son over to Syria or Iran. He's a sociopath. He has no compunctions about sending soldiers over there to score points with Israel.


How in the hell do you know what he's going to do? Seriously. The man has lied so much, and changed his position on issues so many times, I have no farking clue on what he may do as president. And that's what really scares me about him.
 
2012-10-11 01:32:14 PM

Cythraul: How in the hell do you know what he's going to do? Seriously. The man has lied so much, and changed his position on issues so many times, I have no farking clue on what he may do as president. And that's what really scares me about him.


Well he already threatened to invade Iran and he's not even President yet. But even if he flip flops on that, he flat out said that he would allow Israel to determine our foreign policy. Given the amount of contributions he's received from them, that's the one thing he's said that I do believe.

Why doesn't this scare anyone else?
 
2012-10-11 01:44:04 PM
thinkprogress.org

That chart is taken from a recent poll of Ohio voters. Although it shows Romney with a slight lead among people who have yet to vote, Obama leads by a massive 20 points among those who have already cast their ballot. Link

Maybe the most striking numbers from our polls: In OH, nearly 1 in 5 have already voted, and those folks are breaking for Obama, 63-37%

- Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 11, 2012
 
2012-10-11 01:47:50 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: [thinkprogress.org image 289x160]

That chart is taken from a recent poll of Ohio voters. Although it shows Romney with a slight lead among people who have yet to vote, Obama leads by a massive 20 points among those who have already cast their ballot. Link

Maybe the most striking numbers from our polls: In OH, nearly 1 in 5 have already voted, and those folks are breaking for Obama, 63-37%- Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 11, 2012


I can always count on you to cheer me up.
 
2012-10-11 01:53:05 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: [thinkprogress.org image 289x160]

That chart is taken from a recent poll of Ohio voters. Although it shows Romney with a slight lead among people who have yet to vote, Obama leads by a massive 20 points among those who have already cast their ballot. Link

Maybe the most striking numbers from our polls: In OH, nearly 1 in 5 have already voted, and those folks are breaking for Obama, 63-37%- Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 11, 2012


so basically, these numbers give obama ohio.
if the other 80% break evenly or slightly rmoney, there is no way the rmoney can pull ahead.

THE MOST interesting part of these type of polls is that it will discourage rmoney voters from going out to vote!!
 
2012-10-11 02:31:27 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Early voting has been working against Romney for a few weeks now. He runs the risk of "too little too late" with his big debate bounce.


Alternatively, he's getting too much too early.
 
2012-10-11 02:41:42 PM

namatad: so is it time to panic yet??


If you go to electoral-vote.com and click the "no rasmussen" button, you'll see that the numbers haven't really shifted that much. It looks like Romney's "huge" bounce is primarily in the minds of FOX-TV's favorite pollster.
 
2012-10-11 02:43:05 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: [thinkprogress.org image 289x160]

That chart is taken from a recent poll of Ohio voters. Although it shows Romney with a slight lead among people who have yet to vote, Obama leads by a massive 20 points among those who have already cast their ballot. Link

Maybe the most striking numbers from our polls: In OH, nearly 1 in 5 have already voted, and those folks are breaking for Obama, 63-37%- Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 11, 2012


I like the 1% of people who already voted, but are undecided...
 
2012-10-11 02:43:05 PM
The day before the debate, I said to my brother, "Unless Obama or the economy implodes, this thing is all but over."

Well, Obama imploded.

I'm afraid to watch the debate tonight after last week's fiasco. (Though Biden is said to be a good debater.)

The Now-cast on 538 has gone from 98% before the debate to 71% today.

I think one reason the polls have moved so much is that Romney had made a lot of gaffes leading up to the debate, so people weren't expecting much. But he came off smart, moderate, and concise, while Obama looked weak and indecisive. Also, generally, even when someone "wins" a debate it's close enough that the partisans all say their guy won; not this time. I've never seen such a lopsided debate. If that's what you're basing your vote on, you're voting for Romney.

Obama better get his shiat together for the next one.
 
2012-10-11 02:43:30 PM

Lando Lincoln: Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.

My son's in the military now, and I'm definitely worried about Romney getting into the White House. That farker would not have any problem sending my son over to Syria or Iran. He's a sociopath. He has no compunctions about sending soldiers over there to score points with Israel.


obama will send your son off to war as well, but under a different pretext. Neither choice is looking out for the well-being of your family.
 
2012-10-11 02:45:24 PM
The polls are showing Romney's debate bounce has topped out. So I wouldn't say he's surging. Tonight debate will be good for Obama as long as Biden doesn't get stomped. As long as Biden at least holds his own, the story changes and Obama's roflstomping by Mittens will start to fade.

Of course, Obama needs to bring the pain next time, or Mittens will start picking out drapes.
 
2012-10-11 02:45:26 PM

namatad: so is it time to panic yet??


Define panic. Romney just shot up from 10% chance to win to 30% over the last week. I expect that to peter out around 40%. If Obama has another debate like that, Romney will almost certainly shoot into the lead, and Obama may not have a chance to overcome that. But Obama has a vastly superior GOTV effort, so I personally like his chances in a close election. He can't afford another misstep, though, and he has to learn how to effectively counter Romney in a debate.
 
2012-10-11 02:46:32 PM

Lando Lincoln: Yes, it's definitely getting more interesting. If you go over to electoral-vote.com you'll see that it looks like there are 10 states that are in-play now. By my count, it looks like Obama needs 55 EV's to win and Romney needs 89 EV's to win. This race is tightening up. Get out there and volunteer if you live in or near one of the battleground states. Or go to a local phone bank to volunteer. Donate anything you can.


Yes, get out there and do what you can to elect turd. we can not let douche win

Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.


you think Obama is not bought and paid for??? people actually believe this?!

in your own words, "i can't believe people are so farking stupid"

people. like you.
 
2012-10-11 02:46:50 PM

Mugato: Cythraul: How in the hell do you know what he's going to do? Seriously. The man has lied so much, and changed his position on issues so many times, I have no farking clue on what he may do as president. And that's what really scares me about him.

Well he already threatened to invade Iran and he's not even President yet. But even if he flip flops on that, he flat out said that he would allow Israel to determine our foreign policy. Given the amount of contributions he's received from them, that's the one thing he's said that I do believe.

Why doesn't this scare anyone else?


It horrifies me. Don't worry, some of us have been paying attention to this thing enough to realize how truly awful Romney is. I'll be voting and making sure he stays out of power where he belongs.
 
2012-10-11 02:47:08 PM

soakitincider: Lando Lincoln: Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.

My son's in the military now, and I'm definitely worried about Romney getting into the White House. That farker would not have any problem sending my son over to Syria or Iran. He's a sociopath. He has no compunctions about sending soldiers over there to score points with Israel.

obama will send your son off to war as well, but under a different pretext. Neither choice is looking out for the well-being of your family.


...So Vote Republican.
 
2012-10-11 02:47:28 PM
sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2012-10-11 02:47:32 PM

Publikwerks: The polls are showing Romney's debate bounce has topped out. So I wouldn't say he's surging. Tonight debate will be good for Obama as long as Biden doesn't get stomped. As long as Biden at least holds his own, the story changes and Obama's roflstomping by Mittens will start to fade.

Of course, Obama needs to bring the pain next time, or Mittens will start picking out drapes.


Biden is dumber than Dan Quayle. He'd get clobbered by zombie Adm. Stockton
 
2012-10-11 02:47:38 PM
Chill out everybody.

Ohio here, we got this.
 
2012-10-11 02:47:54 PM

jasimo: The day before the debate, I said to my brother, "Unless Obama or the economy implodes, this thing is all but over."

Well, Obama imploded.

I'm afraid to watch the debate tonight after last week's fiasco. (Though Biden is said to be a good debater.)

The Now-cast on 538 has gone from 98% before the debate to 71% today.

I think one reason the polls have moved so much is that Romney had made a lot of gaffes leading up to the debate, so people weren't expecting much. But he came off smart, moderate, and concise, while Obama looked weak and indecisive. Also, generally, even when someone "wins" a debate it's close enough that the partisans all say their guy won; not this time. I've never seen such a lopsided debate. If that's what you're basing your vote on, you're voting for Romney.

Obama better get his shiat together for the next one.


It's enough to make one wonder if his gaffes were planned.
 
2012-10-11 02:48:31 PM

Publikwerks: The polls are showing Romney's debate bounce has topped out. So I wouldn't say he's surging. Tonight debate will be good for Obama as long as Biden doesn't get stomped. As long as Biden at least holds his own, the story changes and Obama's roflstomping by Mittens will start to fade.

Of course, Obama needs to bring the pain next time, or Mittens will start picking out drapes.


This. I'm actually feeling a lot better. After the Obama's worst week and Romney's best, Romney is still behind Obama in key swing states. Now if Obama puts forward a performance perceived to be as bad as his last outing he will be in trouble. But for now he is still in the drivers seat.
 
2012-10-11 02:48:45 PM

jasimo: The day before the debate, I said to my brother, "Unless Obama or the economy implodes, this thing is all but over."

Well, Obama imploded.

I'm afraid to watch the debate tonight after last week's fiasco. (Though Biden is said to be a good debater.)

The Now-cast on 538 has gone from 98% before the debate to 71% today.

I think one reason the polls have moved so much is that Romney had made a lot of gaffes leading up to the debate, so people weren't expecting much. But he came off smart, moderate, and concise, while Obama looked weak and indecisive. Also, generally, even when someone "wins" a debate it's close enough that the partisans all say their guy won; not this time. I've never seen such a lopsided debate. If that's what you're basing your vote on, you're voting for Romney.

Obama better get his shiat together for the next one.


I think you are right about expectations re Romney. He had a bunch of gaffes and left wingers made him out to be a monster. Then he looked like a normal person in the debate, so he looked alot better in comparison to everyone's expectations.

He's likely not going to look worse in the next two debates so Obama better look better or hope for more romney gaffes.
 
2012-10-11 02:49:36 PM

Mugato: Cythraul: How in the hell do you know what he's going to do? Seriously. The man has lied so much, and changed his position on issues so many times, I have no farking clue on what he may do as president. And that's what really scares me about him.

Well he already threatened to invade Iran and he's not even President yet. But even if he flip flops on that, he flat out said that he would allow Israel to determine our foreign policy. Given the amount of contributions he's received from them, that's the one thing he's said that I do believe.

Why doesn't this scare anyone else?


both of these crooks are despicable but where did romney say that about israel?

[citation needed]
 
2012-10-11 02:49:45 PM
I can see now why the Democrats are pushing early voting so hard. The more informed voters become, the higher the odds that they'll vote for Romney, so Obama needs to get them committed while they're still low-information.
 
2012-10-11 02:50:28 PM
This "oversampled" is stupid.

I love how those one the right call data NOT SKEWED based on political party "Skewed" data.

Guess what? People identifying with a political party is not a constant number.
 
2012-10-11 02:50:31 PM

colonel0sanders: I like the 1% of people who already voted, but are undecided...


so they voted for nobody or fail at polls?

question: how many people said they already voted for obama, but actually voted for romney, and vice versa?
 
2012-10-11 02:50:54 PM
I told this not so csb in another thread the other day but since people are sharing their worried about a romney win stories... a buddy of mine who lives in MA is afraid of a Romney win because they are going to pass medical marijuana there in Nov and he is afraid Romney will use MA as his own little pet liberal state to harass and punish with DEA raids.
 
2012-10-11 02:51:10 PM
In other words, people are completely content to ignore the utter failure of the Bush years and usher them back in.

Hardly surprising.
 
2012-10-11 02:51:49 PM

Mugato: Cythraul: How in the hell do you know what he's going to do? Seriously. The man has lied so much, and changed his position on issues so many times, I have no farking clue on what he may do as president. And that's what really scares me about him.

Well he already threatened to invade Iran and he's not even President yet. But even if he flip flops on that, he flat out said that he would allow Israel to determine our foreign policy. Given the amount of contributions he's received from them, that's the one thing he's said that I do believe.

Why doesn't this scare anyone else?


Don't forget, he's also threatened our ally Russia, and the second strongest military and highest population country China. Neither took very kindly to his statements.
 
2012-10-11 02:51:59 PM

soakitincider: Lando Lincoln: Mugato: It's farking scary. I can't believe people are so farking stupid. I have friends and relatives in the military who survived despite Bush's best efforts, got sent home under Obama and will have to start packing if this bought and paid for dick gets elected. Not to mention what he's going to do to the rest of the country.

My son's in the military now, and I'm definitely worried about Romney getting into the White House. That farker would not have any problem sending my son over to Syria or Iran. He's a sociopath. He has no compunctions about sending soldiers over there to score points with Israel.

obama will send your son off to war as well, but under a different pretext. Neither choice is looking out for the well-being of your family.


Soooo vote Republican?

/or move to Canada
 
2012-10-11 02:52:06 PM

jjorsett: I can see now why the Democrats are pushing early voting so hard. The more informed voters become, the higher the odds that they'll vote for Romney, so Obama needs to get them committed while they're still low-information.


Oh please inform us more then:

Is Romney going to give everyone a net tax cut like he had been saying or are we all going to be paying the net same in taxes like he is saying now.

Please inform us if he plans a tax cut or not.
 
2012-10-11 02:52:25 PM
livingtheimpossibledream.com

This guy killed millions of innocent people with his big lie. I don't vote for liars.
 
2012-10-11 02:52:40 PM

Publikwerks: The polls are showing Romney's debate bounce has topped out. So I wouldn't say he's surging. Tonight debate will be good for Obama as long as Biden doesn't get stomped. As long as Biden at least holds his own, the story changes and Obama's roflstomping by Mittens will start to fade.

Of course, Obama needs to bring the pain next time, or Mittens will start picking out drapes.


Ha, good luck with that, if Biden even remembers to put on his shirt and not start swearing or spouting racial epithets, it'll be a good night for him.
 
2012-10-11 02:52:46 PM

Lando Lincoln: Yes, it's definitely getting more interesting. If you go over to electoral-vote.com you'll see that it looks like there are 10 states that are in-play now. By my count, it looks like Obama needs 55 EV's to win and Romney needs 89 EV's to win. This race is tightening up. Get out there and volunteer if you live in or near one of the battleground states. Or go to a local phone bank to volunteer. Donate anything you can.


To whom? This isn't Kos. You might be a libertarian for all I know.
 
2012-10-11 02:53:04 PM

jjorsett: I can see now why the Democrats are pushing early voting so hard. The more informed voters become, the higher the odds that they'll vote for Romney, so Obama needs to get them committed while they're still low-information.


Hey! It's opposite day!
 
2012-10-11 02:53:50 PM

spman:

Ha, good luck with that, if Biden even remembers to put on his shirt and not start swearing or spouting racial epithets, it'll be a good night for him.


Continue to underestimate Joe Biden, you are going to be in for a rude surprise.
 
2012-10-11 02:54:18 PM

un4gvn666:

...So Vote Republican.


you know, there are other choices out there. perhaps if idiot fanbois like you could think for themselves and vote their conscience we wouldn't be in such an awful shiatstorm right now.

but no, you wouldn't want to "throw your vote away," right? that would be dumb. voting for evil A over evil B. that's smart and will most certainly lead us out of this quagmire

/giggity
 
2012-10-11 02:55:01 PM

jasimo: The Now-cast on 538 has gone from 98% before the debate to 71% today.

I think one reason the polls have moved so much is that Romney had made a lot of gaffes leading up to the debate, so people weren't expecting much. But he came off smart, moderate, and concise...


...by completely lying. He flat out lied to the public a-la Ronald Reagan. The GOP spent years talking about Saint Reagan and now they took a page out of his book and just flat out lied to the American public. Before the debate Romney's campaign ran hard right and that scared the moderate Republicans and the independents. So during the debate he just flat out denied all of his far right stuff. Sure afterwards his campaign admitted the lies but politically that didn't matter. The public paid attention to the debate, heard that Romney guy was totally covering pre-existing conditions and not cutting 5 trillion in taxes so he's moderate after all and all their fears were laid to rest. The biggest flaw in our system is ultimately it relies on the American Public and man we're farking stupid.
 
2012-10-11 02:55:17 PM
Unaffiliated voter here ... Obama is getting my vote on election day.

I'm only 27, so I was only eligible to vote for the President in 2004 and 2008. I ended up voting for Badnarik(L) in 2004 and Obama(D) in 2008; however, I tend to vote more Republican on the local and judicial levels.

I should mention though, as a Millennial I can't begin to tell you how pissed off I am with the Republican Party on the federal level. It will be a LONG time before I contemplate voting for a Republican Senator or President.
 
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