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(The Hill)   Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center: "No point in continuing polling in NC, VA, and FL. Dewey has this locked up"   (thehill.com) divider line 100
    More: Strange, President Obama, North Carolina, Suffolk University, David Paleologos, Suffolk, pollsters, swing states  
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2847 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Oct 2012 at 3:29 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-10 11:54:23 AM
WTF? I mean really.
 
2012-10-10 12:24:16 PM
Ok, but Nate Silver disagrees. And he's got a better track record.
 
2012-10-10 12:45:28 PM
This isn't politically motivated AT ALL.
 
2012-10-10 12:48:09 PM

what_now: Ok, but Nate Silver disagrees. And he's got a better track record.


And isn't letting us all know through an interview on The O'Reilly Factor.
 
2012-10-10 01:24:42 PM
The commenters on that site make the trolls around here look downright brilliant
 
2012-10-10 01:40:54 PM
Today's Electoral-vote.com map says otherwise.....
www.electoral-vote.com
 
2012-10-10 01:47:16 PM
This Republicans this year remind me of Democrats in 2004. Romney has basically erased Obama's convention bounce, but all that does is basically put him 1-2 points behind instead of 10 points behind and even that gain is probably temporary. Being narrowly behind does not win elections. The is gonna be a lot of GOP butthurt on Wednesday Nov 8.
 
2012-10-10 01:49:12 PM
I agree NC may be out of reach for Obama.

But Pollster has Romney up by only 1.2 in FL, and 0.6 in VA. So by this logic, there's no point to continue polling in CO where Obama's up by 0.7 and in OH where he's up by 1.6, right? Which means the election is over, Obama wins, and we can just stop polling EVERYWHERE.
 
2012-10-10 01:52:40 PM
Also, in CO, FL, VA, OH, IA, WI, PA, NH, and NV, Obama is ahead by an average of 2.3-2.8 % points, depending on the source. But, yeah, no need to keep polling those states. Etch-A-Sketch is back to the losing position he was in before the conventions, so obviously he's going to win.
 
2012-10-10 02:01:56 PM

NowhereMon: This Republicans this year remind me of Democrats in 2004. Romney has basically erased Obama's convention bounce, but all that does is basically put him 1-2 points behind instead of 10 points behind and even that gain is probably temporary. Being narrowly behind does not win elections. The is gonna be a lot of GOP butthurt on Wednesday Nov 8.


My personal opinion is that Romney peaked too early, here. He beat expectations in the first debate, sure, but where does he go from here? It's not like his campaign efforts are demonstrably different than they were before the debate.

/would help if the folks who are unabashedly liberal in the broadcast and print media would stop pissing themselves because the President had a bad night
 
2012-10-10 02:06:00 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: He beat expectations in the first debate, sure, but where does he go from here?



Apparently it was his family who intervened and fought with his campaign staff to steer him into Moderate Mitt Mode. And they were right in the short term. He will now continue to pretend being a moderate guy, and not the "Severely Republican" guy he claimed to be a few months ago, and hope that the hits he takes for flip-flopping don't do enough damage to stop him. It worked with his tax returns -- he's taken a beating for that, but nobody's asking about them anymore.

I agree that the peak was too early, but I think it's possible that there wouldn't have been a better time to do it. Wait too long, and too many voters have already made up their minds.

His cynicism is disgusting.
 
2012-10-10 02:19:22 PM

Walker: Today's Electoral-vote.com map says otherwise.....
[www.electoral-vote.com image 580x359]


I think it;s more telling that Missouri is not a more solid in Romney's column. I still don't see how Romney runs the table, where Obama only needs a few of the swing states. You have to admin, Romney has a much longer road to travel to the win.
 
2012-10-10 02:27:05 PM
images.huffingtonpost.com

As you can plainly see here, once these figures reach potato, the statisticals of Romney losing become impossible.
 
2012-10-10 03:10:50 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Apparently it was his family who intervened and fought with his campaign staff to steer him into Moderate Lie About Everything Mitt Mode.


/moar fact-y
 
2012-10-10 03:20:07 PM

gameshowhost: shower_in_my_socks: Apparently it was his family who intervened and fought with his campaign staff to steer him into Moderate Lie About Everything Mitt Mode.

/moar fact-y


It is a brilliant strategy. Just say whatever you think sounds best to the audience. The people that have already committed to voting for you aren't going to change their vote - they're not voting for you anyway; they're voting against Obama. Do they care if you now say you'll now give abortions to anyone at any time, or that you will buy lots of new things, cut taxes for everybody, not raise the deficit, and provide no answers as to how you'll pull that off? Nope. They know you're a gigantic liar, so they know you're lying just to get more votes. Anyone that hasn't picked a candidate yet is obviously a moron, so they'll stupidly think "hey, maybe Romney is coming around to my way of thinking - I like this guy!" The news organizations will just stand there with their mouths agape.

This is an exciting new era in politics.
 
2012-10-10 03:25:34 PM
i.imgur.com

And I'm sure the people in those states will be terribly sorry to see a polling firm pull out, regardless of their political preference.
 
2012-10-10 03:32:22 PM
Bush League Psych-Out Stuff
 
2012-10-10 03:34:21 PM
I'd love to paint the entire U.S. Map red :)

www.anarchylapelpins.com
 
2012-10-10 03:34:38 PM
I usually only pull out if I got caught doing something wrong.

/or fat.
 
2012-10-10 03:34:56 PM
Something I made a while back that I think is even more relevant now.

farm9.staticflickr.com 

my flickr where anyone who wants to use, can pick up the image

http://www.flickr.com/photos/87205274@N02/7985889052/in/set-721576315 3 5322717
 
2012-10-10 03:35:52 PM

shower_in_my_socks: I agree NC may be out of reach for Obama.


There's still a good chance. If Virginia goes hard for Obama then that might spill over into neighboring states. I don't think Virginia is going to go hard for Obama, though. I think Obama may squeak Virginia and will lose North Carolina by 5.

27 more days. I'm still glad Obama's where he is instead of where Romney is.
 
2012-10-10 03:36:52 PM
Are there any good studies on how/if polls change actual voting behavior? (I'm talking opinion polling leading to an election, not exit polling released early on election day)

If people see their candidate has a lead, are they going to be more energized to go out and vote, or stay home since "its in the bag"?
Same if they see their candidate is losing?
Will people change their vote based on wanting to support a winner or help out the underdog?

To me it seems like reporting polls a month before an election, whether good or bad news for the candidate you support likely won't have much effect, or be too variable to predict.
 
2012-10-10 03:37:15 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Apparently it was his family who intervened and fought with his campaign staff to steer him into Moderate Mitt Mode.


Romney Proudly Explains How He's Turned Campaign Around
 
2012-10-10 03:37:34 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: My personal opinion is that Romney peaked too early, here. He beat expectations in the first debate, sure, but where does he go from here? It's not like his campaign efforts are demonstrably different than they were before the debate.


yeah, and worse than that now he has to be as dominant in every debate or is totally derails him. If he'd had an obvious tie with obama in the first debate, he'd still have gotten the bounce for not tanking his campaign and he'd have something to build to. now if he fails in either of the next debates, that will be all anyone talks about (comeback obama and the romney we saw all summer, etc)
 
2012-10-10 03:40:21 PM
A buddy of mine who lives in MA is getting nervous about a Romney victory because they are going to be passing a medical marijuana bill in MA in november, book it done, and he is afraid of getting involved in being a provider because Romney will be taking MA up as his pet state show how awesome he is at the war on drugs.
 
2012-10-10 03:42:54 PM
Is that code for "I've farked all the hot students who were making the calls for me, so...from here on in it would just be awkward?"
 
2012-10-10 03:45:44 PM
My major question would be his methodology. Is it open? The Colorado study a few months back predicted a major Romney victory but their methods were kept proprietary. To me, this screams "something to hide or a major flaw". Political Science is like other sciences: hiding your methods looks suspect as hell.
 
2012-10-10 03:45:58 PM
From E. J. Dionne, Washington Post Blog yesterday.

I was talking with an old friend who is with one of the nonpartisan polling outfits (and who also happens to be a very good and fair-minded pollster). We were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other unhappy. He offered an observation so priceless that it needs to be widely shared.

"When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you," he said. "When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves."

Sums up a lot of what goes on around here.
 
2012-10-10 03:47:02 PM
Link

Suffolk University has polled the presidential race exactly twice since May. They found Obama up by two in Virginia on September 27, and up by three in Florida on October 2.

Now, you could believe that Suffolk was going to do the three states mentioned above again over the coming weeks, and decided not to because of magic overwhelming numbers that showed a landslide. Or you could just look back at their 2008 polling, where Suffolk didn't poll North Carolina at all, polled Virginia and Florida (at nearly the exact same time in early October!) and did a handful of other scattered polling over the next month, including Florida like a month later.

Why, it's almost like David Paleologos is trying to make a completely baseless partisan point while obscuring the fact that his tiny polling outfit doesn't do much polling and wasn't going to poll these states again anyway!
 
2012-10-10 03:49:33 PM
I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.
 
2012-10-10 03:52:27 PM

Lando Lincoln: shower_in_my_socks: I agree NC may be out of reach for Obama.

There's still a good chance. If Virginia goes hard for Obama then that might spill over into neighboring states. I don't think Virginia is going to go hard for Obama, though. I think Obama may squeak Virginia and will lose North Carolina by 5.

27 more days. I'm still glad Obama's where he is instead of where Romney is.


I was happier 1 week ago. I'm very surprised Romney got as big of a bump as he has from the debate. I'm going to go out on a limb (again) and predict that today's RCP average with Romney ahead in the poll average by 1% is his high-water mark.
 
2012-10-10 03:52:57 PM

clambam: I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.


Because the popular vote decides the presidency.
 
2012-10-10 03:53:29 PM

clambam: I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.


You know how the electoral voting system works don't you?
 
2012-10-10 03:54:04 PM

mrshowrules: clambam: I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.

You know how the electoral voting system works don't you?


nevermind. I see what you did there.
 
2012-10-10 03:57:09 PM

Walker: Today's Electoral-vote.com map says otherwise.....
[www.electoral-vote.com image 580x359]


I would have to question their map coloring.

Their data for Florida shows Romney leading, but they still color the map as leaning Obama?
 
2012-10-10 04:01:59 PM

Headso: A buddy of mine who lives in MA is getting nervous about a Romney victory because they are going to be passing a medical marijuana bill in MA in november, book it done, and he is afraid of getting involved in being a provider because Romney will be taking MA up as his pet state show how awesome he is at the war on drugs.


Seems that so far the only places really being bothered by the fed are those that are selling to people without a prescription. None of the providers that I know of here in Michigan have been shut down or hassled much at all. I think what Romney would do is largely moot. Some polls, after changing their sampling group, are showing a slight Romney lead, but I really don't think that is accurate.

In fact... I'm pretty sure the Romney polling change is mostly manufactured in an effort to make this look like a closer contest than it really is. Also.... never underestimate Romney's willingness to implode his campaign.
 
2012-10-10 04:07:31 PM

mrshowrules: clambam: I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.

You know how the electoral voting system works don't you?


culebra: clambam: I'd say it's pretty clear, Obama is going to lose 52% to 48%.

Because the popular vote decides the presidency.


You know, maybe once in a generation the loser of the popular vote wins in the Electoral College. If it happens now, for the second time in 12 years, I think people will be right to feel disenfranchised and deeply disturbed. This is minority rule in the same way Sunni domination of Iraq was minority rule and Alawite control of Syria is minority rule. It does not bode well for our country.
 
2012-10-10 04:07:42 PM

ghare: colon_pow: romney didn't get a bounce. the plain fact is; the momentum has shifted. now with benghazi-gate breaking open the prez is really in trouble.

sleep well.

Yeah, benghazi-gate, it's s very popular "scandal" on FOX and AM radio, but in the real world, not so much. In other words, it's gibberish.


Unfortunately it doesn't matter. If Romney is viewed as being on the attack instead of being on the defense, he is winning. Obama needs to get on the attack again. Tomorrow's debate is key.
 
2012-10-10 04:08:20 PM

Lando Lincoln: It is a brilliant strategy. Just say whatever you think sounds best to the audience. The people that have already committed to voting for you aren't going to change their vote - they're not voting for you anyway; they're voting against Obama. Do they care if you now say you'll now give abortions to anyone at any time, or that you will buy lots of new things, cut taxes for everybody, not raise the deficit, and provide no answers as to how you'll pull that off? Nope. They know you're a gigantic liar, so they know you're lying just to get more votes. Anyone that hasn't picked a candidate yet is obviously a moron, so they'll stupidly think "hey, maybe Romney is coming around to my way of thinking - I like this guy!" The news organizations will just stand there with their mouths agape.

This is an exciting new era in politics.


You think this is a new era?

Nixon got elected twice by convincing people he was going to ramp down Vietnam while ramping it up. Reagan got elected twice by telling people he was going to balance the budgets by decreasing revenues and vastly increasing spending. Dubya got elected twice by telling people he was going to make Americans more safe from the Middle East by putting more Americans in danger in the Middle East.

There is nothing new here. The only thing new here is Romney just now discovered the time tested method that if you offer up complete horseshiat the people will lap it up just as long as you serve up the horseshiat without a hint of hesitation or self-doubt, no matter how utterly preposterous it is on face value.
 
2012-10-10 04:09:25 PM

colon_pow: romney didn't get a bounce. the plain fact is; the momentum has shifted. now with benghazi-gate breaking open the prez is really in trouble.

sleep well.


Lol. "Benghazi-Gate"? Good luck with that.

Because that's what Mitt Romney wants to talk about: How the Obama campaign may have muddled their response to the attack while he completely and utterly botched his.
 
2012-10-10 04:10:19 PM

NowhereMon: This Republicans this year remind me of Democrats in 2004. Romney has basically erased Obama's convention bounce, but all that does is basically put him 1-2 points behind instead of 10 points behind and even that gain is probably temporary. Being narrowly behind does not win elections. The is gonna be a lot of GOP butthurt on Wednesday Nov 8.


I'm actually fearful of it.

Especially if the Democrats also manage to take the House as well as retain the Senate.
 
2012-10-10 04:12:23 PM

rufus-t-firefly: Link

Suffolk University has polled the presidential race exactly twice since May. They found Obama up by two in Virginia on September 27, and up by three in Florida on October 2.

Now, you could believe that Suffolk was going to do the three states mentioned above again over the coming weeks, and decided not to because of magic overwhelming numbers that showed a landslide. Or you could just look back at their 2008 polling, where Suffolk didn't poll North Carolina at all, polled Virginia and Florida (at nearly the exact same time in early October!) and did a handful of other scattered polling over the next month, including Florida like a month later.

Why, it's almost like David Paleologos is trying to make a completely baseless partisan point while obscuring the fact that his tiny polling outfit doesn't do much polling and wasn't going to poll these states again anyway!


Why? free publicity you rube.
 
2012-10-10 04:12:53 PM
This pollster's last name is Paleologos, as in Old Reason? And he's a conservative?

I've got nothing else, I just find it weird, that's all.
 
2012-10-10 04:13:10 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: My personal opinion is that Romney peaked too early, here.


It's funny, but I was thinking the same thing today. This is basically Romney's October Surprise. A sudden and (in some quarters) unanticipated lunge for the center. The problem is that he has arguably used his most potent weapon, and there is still a political eternity to go until election day.
 
2012-10-10 04:14:56 PM
I hope Fartbanjo ask Mitt if he will sign an assault weapons ban like he did when he was governor
 
2012-10-10 04:20:31 PM
I don't think that's what he was actually saying....
 
2012-10-10 04:20:51 PM

InmanRoshi: Nixon got elected twice by convincing people he was going to ramp down Vietnam while ramping it up. Reagan got elected twice by telling people he was going to balance the budgets by decreasing revenues and vastly increasing spending. Dubya got elected twice by telling people he was going to make Americans more safe from the Middle East by putting more Americans in danger in the Middle East


I am going to guess that you are a tweener that sleeps through history class.
 
2012-10-10 04:21:06 PM

aug3: I hope Fartbanjo ask Mitt if he will sign an assault weapons ban like he did when he was governor


You realize that Republicans will vote for something at the state level and not vote for it at the federal level, right?
That is the whole point of believing in a state's rights. Same reason he can be for health care for Mass. and not for it at the federal level.
 
2012-10-10 04:21:42 PM

culebra: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: My personal opinion is that Romney peaked too early, here.

It's funny, but I was thinking the same thing today. This is basically Romney's October Surprise. A sudden and (in some quarters) unanticipated lunge for the center. The problem is that he has arguably used his most potent weapon, and there is still a political eternity to go until election day.


The VP debate should be entertaining but mostly meaningless, although if Biden is in attack mode as opposed to crazy uncle mode he might stop the bleeding. The "round table" middle debate should play to Obama's strengths. The foreign policy final debate should also play into Obama's strengths, unless Romney can say Libya more times than Obama can say Bin Laden.

Now, the first debate (on domestic policy; IE, the economy and taxes) was going to be Obama's weakest, no matter what. In a lot of ways (intentional or not), it's not horrible he lost it, especially the way he lost it. He lost because people thought he seemed too passive. Had he come out swinging, he might have been (unfairly) characterized as an "angry black man" (never mind he's been President for 3+ years). By being passive in the first debate and then losing due to it, he now has carte blanche to attack full force in the next two.
 
2012-10-10 04:23:23 PM

dinomyar: aug3: I hope Fartbanjo ask Mitt if he will sign an assault weapons ban like he did when he was governor

You realize that Republicans will vote for something at the state level and not vote for it at the federal level, right?
That is the whole point of believing in a state's rights. Same reason he can be for health care for Mass. and not for it at the federal level.


At some point that breaks down when you apply the whole "States are experimental playgrounds for national policy" I've heard certain politicians trot out when someone brings up Mass-Care.
 
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