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(ElectoralVote)   So, about that new Pew Research poll that shows Romney making a huge jump over Obama... let's take a look at the numbers and, oh... yeah, not so fast there, folks   (electoral-vote.com) divider line 139
    More: Followup, Pew Research, President Obama, Mitt Romney, human beings, CO IA MI ND, Heath Shuler, lie detection, Christie Vilsack  
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4800 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Oct 2012 at 1:28 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-09 11:10:30 AM  
Meh, Romney had a good poll. Obama's had some good polls. Whatever.

There's been a lot of froth over it, but it's just noise. We're a month out, and there are more debates and polls yet to come.
 
2012-10-09 11:11:28 AM  
Also equally relevant: I just took a poll at my parents' house, and Romney leads Obama by 100 points.
 
2012-10-09 11:14:00 AM  
Anybody that believes that a Presidential candidate could make a 12 point jump in a week (without their opponent stomping on the skulls of live puppies and kittens on stage) doesn't know much of anything about elections.
 
2012-10-09 11:14:04 AM  
SKEWED POLLS ZOMG!
 
2012-10-09 11:16:46 AM  
538 also has a pretty detailed look into this (and other recent polling issues) up this morning.

Also, TFA doesn't delve into this much, but the crosstabs on the Pew poll seem to be a bit of a stretch. Party ID does fluctuate from poll to poll, sometimes by seemingly large amounts. But, even with Pew's trendlines, I can't see how Romney goes from nearly -20 with women to a tie, or wins 18-30s by a large margin.
 
2012-10-09 11:20:26 AM  
You can't unskew a poll!!!
 
2012-10-09 11:26:35 AM  
That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
2012-10-09 11:29:20 AM  

I_C_Weener: You can't unskew a poll!!!


i181.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-09 11:31:36 AM  

I_C_Weener: You can't unskew a poll!!!


Just like you can't unskew a pregnant lady.
 
2012-10-09 11:31:40 AM  

Aarontology: But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.


What I've learned from recent poll panics is that conservatives hate liberals and liberals hate each other.

- AdamSerwer (@AdamSerwer) October 9, 2012
 
2012-10-09 11:33:53 AM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: What I've learned from recent poll panics is that conservatives hate liberals and liberals hate each other.


heh
 
2012-10-09 11:44:32 AM  
While I think this is probably accurate information, why should we trust this particular poll site more than others? Who is running it?
 
2012-10-09 11:46:47 AM  

xanadian: Just like you can't unskew a pregnant lady.


You're missing an 'r' in there.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-10-09 11:49:59 AM  
I don't understand why so many people are freaking about this one poll. I understand the people on the right trying to spin it, but what's with the people on the left?

It's just one poll, the Gallup daily doesn't show anything like a 12 point shift. Also there are two more debates, not very many undecides and the election is decided by the electoral vote and not the popular vote anyway.

So is it some sort of tactic lower expectations for the next debate or create a sense of urgency to keep donations coming in, or what?
 
2012-10-09 11:51:45 AM  

Aarontology: That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.


Speaking only for myself, while I never thought Obama was in danger of losing any considerable ground because of one debate, I was concerned that some people who were maybe on the fence about voting for him, decided not to. I don't think Obama will lose this election, but I also don't want him losing so much as one voter over something that retarded.
 
2012-10-09 11:54:51 AM  

Coco LaFemme: Speaking only for myself, while I never thought Obama was in danger of losing any considerable ground because of one debate, I was concerned that some people who were maybe on the fence about voting for him, decided not to. I don't think Obama will lose this election, but I also don't want him losing so much as one voter over something that retarded.


You may have, but people were acting like Romney had won 350 EC votes that night.

When people spend so much time freaking out about the OMG ROMNEYMENTUM it only adds to it.
 
2012-10-09 11:55:07 AM  

vpb: I don't understand why so many people are freaking about this one poll. I understand the people on the right trying to spin it, but what's with the people on the left?

It's just one poll, the Gallup daily doesn't show anything like a 12 point shift. Also there are two more debates, not very many undecides and the election is decided by the electoral vote and not the popular vote anyway.

So is it some sort of tactic lower expectations for the next debate or create a sense of urgency to keep donations coming in, or what?


Don't forget that a tight race is quite valuable to the networks.
 
2012-10-09 12:12:01 PM  

unlikely: Also equally relevant: I just took a poll at my parents' house, and Romney leads Obama by 100 points.


I took a poll at my house and Obama leads Pat Buchanan by 2-1 (my 7-month old daughter was confused by the question).
 
2012-10-09 12:41:37 PM  
PEW PEW PEW
 
2012-10-09 01:29:57 PM  
FTA:For comparison purposes, two other national polls have also been done entirely since the first debate. Rasmussen has it as a tie at 48% to 48%

Gawd, Rasmussen has such a libby bias if it puts them at a tie.
 
2012-10-09 01:32:59 PM  

Aarontology: That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.


I find it funny where last week you had republicans crying out that the jobs numbers was a conspiracy even though the new numbers were following the trend line of the last few years, and yet this one poll which seems to be more of an outlier is the word of god.
 
2012-10-09 01:33:20 PM  

unlikely: Also equally relevant: I just took a poll at my parents' house, and Romney leads Obama by 100 points.


At my parents house Obama's name isn't even on the poll.
 
2012-10-09 01:34:05 PM  
Polls are skewered by people who don't tell the pollster to eat shiat and die.

/CBS cares!
//The more you know!
///Knowledge is power!.
////I'm just a bill. A lonely old bill. Having riders crammed up my ass on capitol hill.
 
2012-10-09 01:34:37 PM  
NATE SILVER: So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it.


Without the outlier poll, Romney's "bounce" is pretty "meh." But it still sends the republicans into celebration mode and the dems into a panic. Get a grip.
 
2012-10-09 01:35:09 PM  
I can't submit this link due to some stupid comment error thing according to FARK so i'll just leave this here.

Hannity dismisses poll showing Obama at 51% approval by Super Liberal Scott Rasmussen.
 
2012-10-09 01:35:54 PM  

skykid: I can't submit this link due to some stupid comment error thing according to FARK so i'll just leave this here.

Hannity dismisses poll showing Obama at 51% approval by Super Liberal Scott Rasmussen.


Crap it won't even let me post it in the comments just go to Media Matters and you'll find it.

DAMN YOU DREW!
 
2012-10-09 01:35:54 PM  
 
2012-10-09 01:36:02 PM  

Aarontology: That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.


I think less people on the left want to engage in political team cheerleading and instead like to analyze and mull over politics so when Obama had a shiatty showing people discussed it at face value instead of going into apologia mode. Don't get me wrong there were plenty of posts of people saying Obama was doing a rope a dope but you had just as many other lefties taking a shiat on that theory as you had republicans.
 
2012-10-09 01:36:56 PM  
While many people believe Romney "won" the debate, it is extremely unlikely that 21% of the nation's Democrats changed parties as a result of one debate. So there is a fair chance that the Pew poll is an outlier that undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans.

No it's the only poll that matters and any that don't support it are part of a libtard conspiracy.

BTW, Pew will be in on the conspiracy again when they release polling showing Romney behind.
 
2012-10-09 01:37:30 PM  
I'm pretty certain this bounce is because people were expecting mushmouth Romney and instead got primate chest-beating Romney. The next two debates will even things out, probably, unless Obama forgets to sleep tonight. However, I still sent some money Obama's way, because fark Mitt Romney.
 
2012-10-09 01:38:18 PM  

HotWingConspiracy:

BTW, Pew will be in on the conspiracy again when they release polling showing Romney behind.


Ew, Gross, I don't want to see that.
 
2012-10-09 01:43:13 PM  

Aarontology: That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.


Ultimately? Rightists have something to believe in. It's a horrible, racist, sexist, bigoted, theocratic, ultra-capitalist nationalist thing that no decent person would ever get behind, but it's a thing.

Liberals have nothing. Centrist policy in this country consists of "What the right is saying, but, y'know, 15% less evil". Republicans are horrible people but they have a policy vision. Democrats don't, they just have some social stuff. They go into a tizzy because, by and large, liberals have nothing concrete to rally behind or fight back with.
 
2012-10-09 01:44:09 PM  

vpb: I don't understand why so many people are freaking about this one poll. I understand the people on the right trying to spin it, but what's with the people on the left?


They remember Election Year 2000.
 
2012-10-09 01:45:43 PM  

Dogberry: I_C_Weener: You can't unskew a poll!!!

[i181.photobucket.com image 227x162]


i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-09 01:47:05 PM  

A Dark Evil Omen: Aarontology: That one Pew poll is the perfect reason why the Democrats are effing morons. One poll sends them into lamentations and hyperbolic reactions. One poll takes every bit of wind out of their sails and sends the might into defeatist mode.

You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look. They keep on derping and derping and derping. Down by fifty poitns among Latinos? Who cares? Twenty points among women? Meh! However many points among people under thirty five? Whatevs.

But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.

Ultimately? Rightists have something to believe in. It's a horrible, racist, sexist, bigoted, theocratic, ultra-capitalist nationalist thing that no decent person would ever get behind, but it's a thing.

Liberals have nothing. Centrist policy in this country consists of "What the right is saying, but, y'know, 15% less evil". Republicans are horrible people but they have a policy vision. Democrats don't, they just have some social stuff. They go into a tizzy because, by and large, liberals have nothing concrete to rally behind or fight back with.


its a big and great country. rich in resources and opportunity. no one should be hungry or poor. you can fight for that.
 
2012-10-09 01:47:10 PM  

spcMike: I find it funny where last week you had republicans crying out that the jobs numbers was a conspiracy even though the new numbers were following the trend line of the last few years, and yet this one poll which seems to be more of an outlier is the word of god.


That's hilarious too. I'm sure it's a coincidence that the one poll that isn't "skewed" just so happens to paint Romney in the best light.

Headso: I think less people on the left want to engage in political team cheerleading and instead like to analyze and mull over politics so when Obama had a shiatty showing people discussed it at face value instead of going into apologia mode. Don't get me wrong there were plenty of posts of people saying Obama was doing a rope a dope but you had just as many other lefties taking a shiat on that theory as you had republicans.


The rope a dope guys I can understand. They're thinking strategy. I'm talking about the folks who acted like Romney had flat out won the election that night. There wasn't nearly as much "Well that sucked, let's move on" as there was "OMG I can't believe how doomed we all are!"

A Dark Evil Omen: Liberals have nothing. Centrist policy in this country consists of "What the right is saying, but, y'know, 15% less evil". Republicans are horrible people but they have a policy vision. Democrats don't, they just have some social stuff. They go into a tizzy because, by and large, liberals have nothing concrete to rally behind or fight back with.


That's how the GOP gets away with it. The Democrats are so f*cking scared to advocate anything beyond Republican-lite, that the GOP can keep pulling rightward without the Dems making much fuss. Meanwhile, we've gotten to the point where Reagan would be considered a socialist.
 
2012-10-09 01:47:39 PM  

Parthenogenetic: Dogberry: I_C_Weener: You can't unskew a poll!!!

[i181.photobucket.com image 227x162]

[i.imgur.com image 685x401]


Thanks. I was limited in my photo apps at the time of my posting.
 
2012-10-09 01:49:54 PM  
i100.photobucket.com

relax people
 
2012-10-09 01:50:04 PM  
In September 2008, for about 10 days Gallup had McCain in the lead by 3-5 points. I expected this to happen again for one reason or another -- either a major gaffe, an overblown "scandal," etc. It's October. Elections get farking crazy at the end.
 
2012-10-09 01:50:29 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: Aarontology: But one seeming outlier of a poll after one debate causes everything to come crashing down for Obama supporters. Defeatism is a self fulfilling prophecy.

What I've learned from recent poll panics is that conservatives hate liberals and liberals hate each other.- AdamSerwer (@AdamSerwer) October 9, 2012


*snicker*
 
2012-10-09 01:51:06 PM  

Aarontology: You don't see this kind of bullshiat with Republicans. They keep going no matter how bad things look.


Kind of like a retard trying to get the M&M stuck in the floor vent, and with the same mentality.
 
2012-10-09 01:52:12 PM  

A Dark Evil Omen: Aarontology:
Liberals have nothing. Centrist policy in this country consists of "What the right is saying, but, y'know, 15% less evil". Republicans are horrible people but they have a policy vision. Democrats don't, they just have some social stuff. They go into a tizzy because, by and large, liberals have nothing concrete to rally behind or fight back with.


Liberals??? What liberals? I haven't seen a liberal since Mondale.

What you have are batshait crazy teabaggers and everybody else. If it was just the teabaggers and liberals you might have a specific agenda (or not: politically incorrect originally meant Liberal In Name Only politically correct meant every possible liberal agenda). You aren't going to get a specific agenda (other than "sanity") under that big a tent. 

PS. Michigan is listed as barely Blue. Calibrate it with the odds of Mitt "Death to GM" Romney winning there.
 
2012-10-09 01:53:19 PM  
I would say that the VP debate will define things. If Ryan beats Biden like a government mule in the court of public opinion then it is Romney's to win. But that is an if.
 
2012-10-09 01:53:33 PM  

Nadie_AZ: vpb: I don't understand why so many people are freaking about this one poll. I understand the people on the right trying to spin it, but what's with the people on the left?

They remember Election Year 2000.


You see here's something I want to mention in regards to the media's horserace coverage lately. Now I was 12 years old when Bill Clinton faced Bob Dole but did the media actually pretend that Dole had some sort of chance the leadup to election day? I seem to remember everyone and their dog thinking Clinton had it in the bag.

Then we had the close 2000-2004 elections, hell the 2008 election even though Obama won in a landslide with the electoral college was still considered by the media to be "close" until about less than a week before the debate. Even though most of us here on FARK knew what the result was going to be.

I remember a laughable Chuck Todd "projection" about a week before the election that had Obama with close to 270 electoral votes with Michigan considered a "toss-up".

Seeing that Obama still has a signifigant electoral vote advantage and remembering from Al Gore that winning the popular vote means nothing, I believe that the debate was simple the newsmedia trying their damndest to try and make this election "close" for better ratings and ad money in the last pre-election month.
 
2012-10-09 01:55:10 PM  
pbs.twimg.com

Game over, libs.
 
2012-10-09 01:55:48 PM  

skykid: Nadie_AZ: vpb: I don't understand why so many people are freaking about this one poll. I understand the people on the right trying to spin it, but what's with the people on the left?

They remember Election Year 2000.

You see here's something I want to mention in regards to the media's horserace coverage lately. Now I was 12 years old when Bill Clinton faced Bob Dole but did the media actually pretend that Dole had some sort of chance the leadup to election day? I seem to remember everyone and their dog thinking Clinton had it in the bag.

Then we had the close 2000-2004 elections, hell the 2008 election even though Obama won in a landslide with the electoral college was still considered by the media to be "close" until about less than a week before the election. Even though most of us here on FARK knew what the result was going to be.

I remember a laughable Chuck Todd "projection" about a week before the election that had Obama with close to 270 electoral votes with Michigan considered a "toss-up".

Seeing that Obama still has a signifigant electoral vote advantage and remembering from Al Gore that winning the popular vote means nothing, I believe that the debate was simple the newsmedia trying their damndest to try and make this election "close" for better ratings and ad money in the last pre-election month.


I meant a week before the '08 election correction. My mind has still been on last week.
 
2012-10-09 01:56:25 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: [pbs.twimg.com image 600x432]

Game over, libs.


The statisticals have spoken.
 
2012-10-09 01:56:36 PM  
In unrelated news, I turned on Megan Kelly about ten minutes ago for shiats and giggles.

She was touting the University of Colorado MegaAccurate, Tried and True, electoral prediction model that's correctly predicted every election since 1980 even though it's brand new.

Their new model had Obama only winning the Pacific coast, Hawaii, Michigan, and New England without Pennsylvania.
 
2012-10-09 01:57:13 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: [pbs.twimg.com image 600x432]

Game over, libs.


Sadly, another embassy attack would likely make that happen. FEAR AND DOOM, CALL THE. REPUBLICANS! !!!
 
2012-10-09 01:57:15 PM  

globalwarmingpraiser: .


Have VP debates ever had any impact on elections?
 
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