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(Talking Points Memo)   Pollmageddon continues, Pew polling has Romney up by four, which is a 12 point swing. Not 1-2, twelve   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 363
    More: Unlikely, Pew Research Center, rolling average, overtaking  
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2691 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Oct 2012 at 1:14 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-09 09:47:42 AM

Overfiend: Romney will win. I know its difficult for my Fark Progessive friends to comprehend, but don't worry - you'll have a shot at 2016.

/the world won't end no matter who wins
//Romney will be a good president for ALL Americans.


The world won't end, but I think Romney would be a shiatty leader. I say would, because it's still a race, and Romney still isn't leading the electoral college projection.
 
2012-10-09 09:48:01 AM

big pig peaches: tooeasy: big pig peaches: I am pretty sure Obama is just Rope-a-doping Romney into a false sense of security. His failure in the first debate was likely strategic and if Romney is the typical republican he will likely fall for it and be caught off guard when Obama comes back hard in the next round.

Great strategy.

Should be an obvious one too, except Romney's arrogance will blind him and his army of yes men will not want to get in the way of him congratulating himself.

This is the lesson of the tortoise and the hare in real life.


Yeah,Romney's arrogant
upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-10-09 09:48:52 AM

WhyteRaven74: tooeasy: if he wanted to really do something about inequality,

The repeal of DADT, telling the DoJ to not bother defending DoMA if it comes up in court.

but it's gotten worse under his watch

That must be why government growth under Obama is smaller than under Bush...


Wow. Just wow
 
2012-10-09 09:49:44 AM

tooeasy: Yeah,Romney's arrogant


Wow, you're dense as a lead brick.
 
2012-10-09 09:49:51 AM

Su-Su-Sudo: unexplained: bacontenpoundsofcheese:

0bama

stunning analysis as usual.

Seriously. Good god, I know the "O" and the "0" are close to eachother on the keyboard, but only a moron would make that mistake repeatedly.

/Oh, wait.


Actually only a moron would think that it is a mistake
(Certainly a lot closer on the keyboard than when people typed boner instead of boehner. Or shrub instead of bush.)

But thanks for playing.
 
2012-10-09 09:50:36 AM

tooeasy: Like I said, I think he's a pragmatist


Is that another word for "liar?" Or "windsock?"
 
2012-10-09 09:50:41 AM
I am a bit concerned about this, Obama needs to hit hard in the other two debates. It's asinine that someone can get on stage, lie their ass off, and get a 12 point swing.
 
2012-10-09 09:53:50 AM

InmanRoshi: unexplained bacon: a lot of people probably wont tune in for another debate. That was Obama's one shot at a lot of undecided voters. I know Mitt lied and lied often, but that doesn't excuse Obama's loss there, he should have been using those lies against MItt instead of ignoring them

It's best to understand the historical trends of incumbants vs. challenger debates in presidential debates. The challenger almost always dances circles around the incumbant in the first debate, generally always receives a bounce soon following, and said bounce almost always dissipates over the long term.


Mondale put the hurt on a listless and disinterested Reagan so badly in 1984 in their first debate that the newscycle was dominated by rhetorical questions as to whether Reagan was simply too old and tired for a second term. This opened the door for Reagan's infamous "I won't hold my opponents youth and inexperience against him" zinger in their second debate when he was pointedly asked about his age being a factor. Bush was so bad against Kerry in 2004 that people openly speculating that he had a technical issue with a hidden device that was supposed to feed him lines.


I know, I know...I just think regardless of past debates, Obama could have and should have brought more to that debate.
I'm not by any means convinced this is over, but I am convinced Obama dropped the ball in that debate. The lies Mitt got away with in that debate live on. A lot of folks don't show up to hear the fact checker analysis...just the debate, and that moment to effectively call BS on Mitt passed Obama by.

just sayin' Obama sucked in that debate, but he's still the better candidate
 
2012-10-09 09:54:58 AM

WhyteRaven74: Overfiend: What did he say that would sway undecided voters to Obama's side?

It's not what he did say, but rather what he didn't say, which was a lot. He had a chance to elucidate a whole slew of programs and idea and his big thing was "Just pick a number...". And that line about Big Bird. Holy sweet jumping Jesus .


The line where he said he liked big bird? You wanted him to say he didn't like big bird?

Sesame street toys rake in over half a billion a year. Licensing fees are usually around 8 percent That is just toys, it doesnt include books or other licensing fees

Yeah, big bird needs government handouts.
 
2012-10-09 09:56:48 AM

tooeasy: Wow. Just wow


So you don't know government growth has slowed under Obama? Have you not been paying attention in these threads?
 
2012-10-09 09:57:11 AM

neenerist: tooeasy: His record in Massachussetts is why I don't expect his to govern hard-right.

You're not electing a king...


www.theage.com.au

"My family and I are deeply sorry for everything Vice President Cheney and his family have had to deal with. We hope that he will continue to come to Texas and seek the relaxation that he deserves."
 
MFL
2012-10-09 09:59:06 AM
Poll Survey: Rasmussen, Pew Most Accurate in 2008a>

After being exposed to the world the Obama campaign is going with.....get this.....the tried and true "my opponnent is a liar" schtick....

global.nationalreview.com

Good luck with that.....lol
 
2012-10-09 09:59:09 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: unexplained bacon: Headso: unexplained bacon: Obama better get it together, I don't buy any of this 'he did it on purpose' stuff at all, it wouldn't make sense to throw such an important debate. That one debate likely solidified a lot of votes for Mitt, that's not strategy, that's losing.

I agree, Obama would have never threw a debate to let that sit with the voters for that long, maybe if there were back to back nightly debates I could buy it.

exactly.

a lot of people probably wont tune in for another debate. That was Obama's one shot at a lot of undecided voters. I know Mitt lied and lied often, but that doesn't excuse Obama's loss there, he should have been using those lies against MItt instead of ignoring them.

I used to be more apathetic about presidential elections in my youth...then came Bush, two terribly managed wars, one of which was completely unnecessary, and then like icing on that shiat cake, he tanked the economy so hard we're still punch drunk.

I lost a lot of respect for my country, and my own small business went under....elections matter.

Awwww. Your small business went under.
Don't be a victim
Try again


Vote Obama.

FTFY

/Romney will fix our economy the only way he knows how--lay off American workers, export jobs overseas and give money to rich people
 
2012-10-09 09:59:23 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Awwww. Your small business went under.
Don't be a victim
Try again


thanks troll king

if there's one thing I do like about how this debate went down, it's seeing all the fark GOPers climb off their crosses to gloat.

since you're full of piss and vinegar today. How about you admit Mitt lied when he said his healthcare plan covers preexisting conditions.
or at least explain why you think that wasn't a lie....

you know, do something constructive with your time on the ground, before you regress back to your persecuted emo persona.
 
2012-10-09 09:59:34 AM
My gut tells me Obama is still going to win comfortably and the real issue will be his coattails. Whether Democrats can make big advances in the House and potentially regain their majority.

My gut has a plus or minus of 3, however, and its survey may have been skewed by the two burritos I ate last night.
 
2012-10-09 09:59:38 AM

unexplained bacon: InmanRoshi: unexplained bacon: a lot of people probably wont tune in for another debate. That was Obama's one shot at a lot of undecided voters. I know Mitt lied and lied often, but that doesn't excuse Obama's loss there, he should have been using those lies against MItt instead of ignoring them

It's best to understand the historical trends of incumbants vs. challenger debates in presidential debates. The challenger almost always dances circles around the incumbant in the first debate, generally always receives a bounce soon following, and said bounce almost always dissipates over the long term.


Mondale put the hurt on a listless and disinterested Reagan so badly in 1984 in their first debate that the newscycle was dominated by rhetorical questions as to whether Reagan was simply too old and tired for a second term. This opened the door for Reagan's infamous "I won't hold my opponents youth and inexperience against him" zinger in their second debate when he was pointedly asked about his age being a factor. Bush was so bad against Kerry in 2004 that people openly speculating that he had a technical issue with a hidden device that was supposed to feed him lines.

I know, I know...I just think regardless of past debates, Obama could have and should have brought more to that debate.
I'm not by any means convinced this is over, but I am convinced Obama dropped the ball in that debate. The lies Mitt got away with in that debate live on. A lot of folks don't show up to hear the fact checker analysis...just the debate, and that moment to effectively call BS on Mitt passed Obama by.

just sayin' Obama sucked in that debate, but he's still the better candidate


You are missing the point
You say he should have brought more to the debate when the issue is that he should be bringing more to his job.

He refuses to meet with world leaders at the UN during a time of crisis but spends his time on The View and lying on Letterman.

He says that he has a laziness in him and that preparing for e debates is a drag. Oh boo hoo.
 
2012-10-09 10:00:29 AM
Well, if he loses, Obama won't have to look further than the nearest mirror to see who was responsible.
 
2012-10-09 10:00:58 AM

colon_pow: WhyteRaven74: unexplained bacon: That one debate likely solidified a lot of votes for Mitt,

Actually it may have done the opposite.

WhyteRaven74 [TotalFark] (favorite: Obama is basically a chess grandmaster)

HotWingConspiracy favorite: Obama in a landslide.)

indylaw (favorite: And he will still lose to Obama by 100+ electoral votes.)

colon_pow is watching you guys twist and squirm


Do do realize that Mitt is still losing very badly, right? His massive "debate bump" just brought his chances of victory up from 85% to 75%.
 
2012-10-09 10:01:05 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Yeah, big bird needs government handouts.


Sesame Street doesn't get any government funds. PBS on the other hand...
 
2012-10-09 10:02:18 AM

MFL: Poll Survey: Rasmussen, Pew Most Accurate in 2008a>

After being exposed to the world the Obama campaign is going with.....get this.....the tried and true "my opponnent is a liar" schtick....

[global.nationalreview.com image 571x395]

Good luck with that.....lol


I heard that the bigger they draw Obama's ears, the more true it makes the comic

Quick, post one where Michelle is fat.
 
2012-10-09 10:02:59 AM

Biological Ali: His massive "debate bump" just brought his chances of victory up from 85% to 75%.


That should be "from 15% to 25%".
 
2012-10-09 10:03:16 AM

WhyteRaven74: tooeasy: Wow. Just wow

So you don't know government growth has slowed under Obama? Have you not been paying attention in these threads?


Government growth is not relevant. Government spending is.
Oh look, I used to spend like ten drunken sailors now I am only spending like nine! The growth has slowed down!!

Spending includes all the people hired back as contractors at higher pay than they had before.
 
2012-10-09 10:04:36 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Government spending is.


Obama reduced the deficit.

Got anything else?
 
2012-10-09 10:07:48 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Oh look, I used to spend like ten drunken sailors now I am only spending like nine! The growth has slowed down!!


if you cut spending that drastically it would cause a really bad recession, the guy already cutting spending in a recession not really smart to begin with.
 
2012-10-09 10:07:59 AM

MFL: After being exposed to the world the Obama campaign is going with.....get this.....the tried and true "my opponnent is a liar" schtick....


To be fair, Obama and the entire spectrum of biased news media. Someday soon what Romney really said in London will see the light. Somewhere over the rainbow...
 
2012-10-09 10:09:00 AM

TheOther: Well, if he loses, Obama won't have to look further than the nearest mirror to see who was responsible.


The good news is that 0bama does not need to walk to far to find a mirror

He will win but will lose some seats in the senate. It will make for an interesting 4 years to see if he can actually compromise and work with the GOP.
 
2012-10-09 10:12:44 AM

WhyteRaven74: tooeasy: Wow. Just wow

So you don't know government growth has slowed under Obama? Have you not been paying attention in these threads?


So you aren't including healthcare, I guess?
 
2012-10-09 10:14:18 AM

MFL: Poll Survey: Rasmussen, Pew Most Accurate in 2008a>

After being exposed to the world the Obama campaign is going with.....get this.....the tried and true "my opponnent is a liar" schtick....

[global.nationalreview.com image 571x395]

Good luck with that.....lol


Ryan: Democrats' strategy is to "call us liars."

Sandusky: Prosecution's strategy is to "call me a pedophile."
 
2012-10-09 10:14:22 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: TheOther: Well, if he loses, Obama won't have to look further than the nearest mirror to see who was responsible.

The good news is that 0bama does not need to walk to far to find a mirror

He will win but will lose some seats in the senate. It will make for an interesting 4 years to see if he can actually compromise and work with the GOP.


Ladies and Germs, this is a Troll's Troll. A troll among giants. Learn from him. Apprentice to him. He is good. Learn his ways.
 
2012-10-09 10:14:32 AM

DamnYankees: Not that this is good news, but has anyone read Sullivan today?


Why would anyone read that guy, ever? He was the leader of the "we need to invade Iraq to prove the hippies are wrong" brigade. Even after he switched his position on the war, he was still blaming the hippies for being the reason he was for it. Just a disgusting human.
 
2012-10-09 10:16:20 AM

tooeasy: So you aren't including healthcare, I guess?


Care to point out where that's grown on the federal budget?
 
2012-10-09 10:17:22 AM

colon_pow: WhyteRaven74: unexplained bacon: That one debate likely solidified a lot of votes for Mitt,

Actually it may have done the opposite.

WhyteRaven74 [TotalFark] (favorite: Obama is basically a chess grandmaster)

HotWingConspiracy favorite: Obama in a landslide.)

indylaw (favorite: And he will still lose to Obama by 100+ electoral votes.)

colon_pow is watching you guys twist and squirm


Aw shucks. I bet your tears will taste delicious on Election Night. A glimmer of hope makes a fantastic marinade.
 
2012-10-09 10:20:27 AM

indylaw: A glimmer of hope makes a fantastic marinade tapenade.


nothing like elections and tapenade.
 
2012-10-09 10:20:50 AM
Seriously? His/her handle is tooeasy.

inmyday.jpg
 
2012-10-09 10:21:10 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Government growth is not relevant. Government spending is.
Oh look, I used to spend like ten drunken sailors now I am only spending like nine


Deficit trumps both. Obama took office when? In 2005 dollars:

i47.tinypic.com

I know, the numbers are lying since Romney can't be.
 
2012-10-09 10:21:18 AM

WhyteRaven74: tooeasy: So you aren't including healthcare, I guess?

Care to point out where that's grown on the federal budget?


No, but I'll be happy to revisit this in two years when one of us is proven wrong
 
2012-10-09 10:23:32 AM

DamnYankees: Not that this is good news, but has anyone read Sullivan today? He's having a complete mental breakdown, I think.


I hope he keeps it up. Hysterical people who buy into the narrative du jour wholeheartedly are what keeps the intrade markets irrational and how sane people make money. It was the same thing when he said that Obama had probably singularly lost the election with the "You didn't build that" gaffe. Of course, it turns out the "You didn't build that" line when currently polled has absolutely no bearing in voter's opinions, and if anything the independents actually SUPPORT the theme.

Take heart knowing that when the Romney bump dissipates narrative constructors like Sullivan will find a new narrative du jour to explain it and go batshiat insane about that as well.
 
2012-10-09 10:24:20 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: unexplained bacon: InmanRoshi: unexplained bacon: a lot of people probably wont tune in for another debate. That was Obama's one shot at a lot of undecided voters. I know Mitt lied and lied often, but that doesn't excuse Obama's loss there, he should have been using those lies against MItt instead of ignoring them

It's best to understand the historical trends of incumbants vs. challenger debates in presidential debates. The challenger almost always dances circles around the incumbant in the first debate, generally always receives a bounce soon following, and said bounce almost always dissipates over the long term.


Mondale put the hurt on a listless and disinterested Reagan so badly in 1984 in their first debate that the newscycle was dominated by rhetorical questions as to whether Reagan was simply too old and tired for a second term. This opened the door for Reagan's infamous "I won't hold my opponents youth and inexperience against him" zinger in their second debate when he was pointedly asked about his age being a factor. Bush was so bad against Kerry in 2004 that people openly speculating that he had a technical issue with a hidden device that was supposed to feed him lines.

I know, I know...I just think regardless of past debates, Obama could have and should have brought more to that debate.
I'm not by any means convinced this is over, but I am convinced Obama dropped the ball in that debate. The lies Mitt got away with in that debate live on. A lot of folks don't show up to hear the fact checker analysis...just the debate, and that moment to effectively call BS on Mitt passed Obama by.

just sayin' Obama sucked in that debate, but he's still the better candidate

You are missing the point
You say he should have brought more to the debate when the issue is that he should be bringing more to his job.

He refuses to meet with world leaders at the UN during a time of crisis but spends his time on The View and lying on Letterman.

He says that he has a ...


and Mitt says his healthcare plan covers preexisting conditions...which isn't true.
if Mitt got his way we'd be right back in the same spot we were before Obamacare.

That is, people who lose their health ins. due to losing their job etc. wont be able to get affordable health ins. because of their preexisting condition. Mitt purposefully made it sound like that wasn't the case when he was addressing this issue in the debate. What do you think about that? anything?

I can't get a GOP farker to touch this question....that's pretty telling I think.
 
2012-10-09 10:26:25 AM

Bacontastesgood: DamnYankees: Not that this is good news, but has anyone read Sullivan today?

Why would anyone read that guy, ever? He was the leader of the "we need to invade Iraq to prove the hippies are wrong" brigade. Even after he switched his position on the war, he was still blaming the hippies for being the reason he was for it. Just a disgusting human.


Well, you see, Sullivan is a very serious man, and "hippies" are fundamentally un-serious, and as a very serious man Sullivan believes it's absolutely imperative that we OMGZ LOOK AT THAT BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT!!!!!!11
 
2012-10-09 10:31:46 AM

Jim_Tressel's_O-Face: Seriously? His/her handle is tooeasy.

inmyday.jpg


I'm not trolling. It would be easy to, but Presidential elections are too important. Trolling would be saying something like I hope any recent college grads here are enjoying your newfound time with mom and dad.

/I know that isn't really Fark's demo any more, but still
 
2012-10-09 10:32:22 AM
Oh, how I hope that Romney wins the general election, but loses the electoral college. And then Obama proclaims the result an "overwhelming mandate" and starts ram-rodding his agenda down everyone's throats. That would be so awesome, I would weep with joy.

Four years ago, that sort of scenario was the exact opposite of what I wanted. After 8 years of the Cheney/Bush regime, I believed that everyone was fed up and ready for true bipartisan, country-comes-first, pragmatic progress. But fark that noise, it was clearly naive bullshiat. I've learned my lesson. The republicans are outright sociopaths who care about nothing but themselves, and they need to be slapped down at every turn. The harder, the better.
 
2012-10-09 10:40:25 AM

tooeasy: but I'll be happy to revisit this in two years when one of us is proven wrong


So if the deficit goes up because of that you'll be upset your fellow Americans are being taken care of? Yeah that's not the position of an insane person at all.
 
2012-10-09 10:45:00 AM
A '15' point jump is a little hard to believe at this point.
 
2012-10-09 10:45:07 AM

Biological Ali: Biological Ali: His massive "debate bump" just brought his chances of victory up from 85% to 75%.

That should be "from 15% to 25%".


It's not over yet. Once everything is priced into the model, I expect him to settle somewhere between 35-40%. Still not winning, but no longer a long shot either
 
2012-10-09 10:49:30 AM

tooeasy: No, but I'll be happy to revisit this in two years when one of us is proven wrong


Let's be honest. No you won't.
 
2012-10-09 10:49:46 AM

WhyteRaven74: tooeasy: but I'll be happy to revisit this in two years when one of us is proven wrong

So if the deficit goes up because of that you'll be upset your fellow Americans are being taken care of? Yeah that's not the position of an insane person at all.


yup, beaurocrary always makes things better and more efficient for people
 
2012-10-09 10:51:05 AM

Lost Thought 00: Biological Ali: Biological Ali: His massive "debate bump" just brought his chances of victory up from 85% to 75%.

That should be "from 15% to 25%".

It's not over yet. Once everything is priced into the model, I expect him to settle somewhere between 35-40%. Still not winning, but no longer a long shot either


I'm guessing closer to 30. Right now Romney is probably at his ceiling. The rest of the debates will be probably draws, there will be a new narrative for the 24/7 cycle to endlessly chew on, Romney's Weeners debate bump with dissipate and it will probably dissipate somewhere back to where it is today and where it was when Romney was at his lowest following the 47% bottom.
 
2012-10-09 10:52:22 AM

crab66: tooeasy: No, but I'll be happy to revisit this in two years when one of us is proven wrong

Let's be honest. No you won't.


I've been here a really long time. Find an NBA thread, you can rub my nose in it
 
MFL
2012-10-09 10:54:49 AM
What liberals don't seem to get is that the country is dying to vote for someone other than Obama. They like him personally (to an extent) but are not impressed with his performance at all.

Until the other night Obama's campaign was able to make Romney look unacceptable enough for the country to stick with the devil they knew in a typical giant douche vs turd sandwich race like we had in 2004. The fact of the matter is Obama's lead was never as big as advertised and his debate preformance wasn't as bad as we are being lead to believe. What we are seeing now is a combination of the numbers coming back to earth as the pollsters actually are trying to get it right for their own credibility as we head into the homestreatch toppled with a lackluster performance by the president. This gives the appearance of a collapse when it's really only a few point swing. But make no mistake Romney is winning.

The media isn't going to admit they were juicing the numbers and Obama has given them a scapegoat......Himself. (ironic isn't it). Obama is now left standing in quicksand because Mitt Romney showed a record audience (If obama had this in the bag there wouldn't have had those numbers)  that he is not the characature Obama has been peddling but a serious and vialble candidate who has his shiat together. He is now the acceptable alternative the Obama administration spent millions of dollars trying to prevent. They are now stuck looking like liars claiming their opponent is lying. This is not a good place to be when your credibility is questionable to begin with.

Compound that with Romney giving a serious foreign policy speech yesterday while Obama is still AWOL on the subject and is spending his time and money fundraising out in Hollywood.....the country notices who is looking more presidential.

This race isn't over because there are more debates, but the fact of the matter is the only new ideas we are talking about right now are Mitt Romney's (the president really hasn't proposed anything substinative), good or bad it gives the appearance that Mitt Romney is the man with the plan and Obama looks like he's the chair Clint Eastwood debated last month.  Obama needs to find and articulate some better ideas in detail to get some presidential credibility back ASAP. Mocking Mitt Romney isn't going to cut it anymore. It might please the ignorant, but it does nothing but shrink Obama's presidential credibility at this stage in the game.

The country is beginning to see through the hype and the die hards are upset the president isn't pulling his weight. Check out Andrew Sullivan's article today

Obama has become a victim to his own hype. It was a standard nobody could live up to, but he was arrogant enough to believe he could. The fact that he blew off his debate preperations, and skipped national security meetings before we were attacked in libya is just another case of misplaced arrogance that will more than likely cost him a second term and make asses out of all of you.

Sucketh it libs. Sucketh it hard.
 
2012-10-09 10:57:18 AM

tooeasy: beaurocrary always makes things better and more efficient for people


What exactly will this bureaucracy be doing? Last I looked there's just new regulations for things.
 
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