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(Talking Points Memo)   Pollmageddon continues, Pew polling has Romney up by four, which is a 12 point swing. Not 1-2, twelve   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 363
    More: Unlikely, Pew Research Center, rolling average, overtaking  
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2691 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Oct 2012 at 1:14 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-09 12:22:36 AM  
A 12-point swing? Sheeeeeeeeit, outlier like a mofo.
 
2012-10-09 12:29:11 AM  

GAT_00: when Pew is the outlier, they are probably the outlier.


/tautology how does it work?
 
2012-10-09 12:29:52 AM  
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-10-09 12:31:04 AM  

Mentat: Hopefully Biden will play that role in the Veep debate.


uh, you know that it is Joe Biden, not Jill who is doing the debate right?

Joe will probably just plagiarize lines from Romney or remind us how he predicted 500,000 jobs a month just two years ago.
 
2012-10-09 01:19:37 AM  

Nadie_AZ: Call me skeptical. But never after 9.


I agree. Massively unlikely
 
2012-10-09 01:19:40 AM  
It's quite possible. I don't have any suspicion on it being inaccurate.
It's always flair over substance, and Romney churned out those lies with a candor usually reserved for people.
God help us if it's accurate and it isn't reserved by things like "facts" or "rationality".
 
2012-10-09 01:20:15 AM  

God-is-a-Taco:
God help us if it's accurate and it isn't reserved by things like "facts" or "rationality".


reversed*
 
2012-10-09 01:21:30 AM  
Americans have short attention spans (this proves it), so the only thing that matters is the last debate and what happens right before the election, not to mention all the swing state ads.
 
2012-10-09 01:28:31 AM  
Looks like the poll samples fewer Dems compared to the last poll.
 
2012-10-09 01:29:16 AM  
*sigh*

This doesn't surprise me.

Not even a little.
 
2012-10-09 01:29:17 AM  
 
2012-10-09 01:30:07 AM  

borg: [1.bp.blogspot.com image 396x361]


OMG COMIC SANS!!!!!!
 
2012-10-09 01:30:26 AM  

tomasso: The scary thing about this is that Pew really does have a significant Democratic bias. This is not one of those Republican fantasies. The typical Pew bias is 3 points for the Dems, according to no less an authority than Nate Silver at 538. (National Review says the normal Pew bias is 5 points, but they're not entirely disinterested observers.)

If Romney is up 4 in a Pew poll, his actual lead could be far more.


From what I've read, the sample is R+3 (as in reported party of respondents was 3 points higher for Republicans than Democrats). The closest any election has ever come to this in a Presidential year was 2004, where it was even. So yes, if the turnout for the election is +3 in term of registered Rs? Romney wins. Actual turnout numbers, though? This will be an outlier.

Also, FWIW, the survey's response was 78% white.
 
2012-10-09 01:33:10 AM  
the interesting thing to me is that while white, old, males are- and continue to be- the majority of these polls. when you looked at the break down of the individual groups they were polling over the debate, women, the young and minorities all felt obama at least broke even. I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line. i personally do not know anyone under the age of about 40 who owns a land line phone, and yet they insist on using that for their polls. why is that?
 
2012-10-09 01:37:11 AM  

tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line



Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment
 
2012-10-09 01:39:04 AM  

tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line. i personally do not know anyone under the age of about 40 who owns a land line phone, and yet they insist on using that for their polls. why is that?


That's not correct. The Pew Survey was "based on telephone interviews conducted October 4-7, 2012, among a national sample of 1,511 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (906 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 605 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 291 who had no landline telephone)."
 
2012-10-09 01:39:29 AM  
PPP and a whole bunch of other pollsters are showing a bump on Thursday and Friday of last week after the debate. PPP reported that in its polling around the country over the weekend that the numbers settled back to the pre-debate numbers. The sample was also too white by about 4-6 points.

Pew has had huge swings in the past giving Bush a mid double digits lead over Kerry and gave Obama his biggest lead nationally in 2008. Wait until Thursday and Friday are out of the polling cycles to get a truer sense of where the race is at.
 
2012-10-09 01:39:50 AM  

intelligent comment below: tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line


Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment


That's why the media will do whatever it takes to make it a closer race.
 
2012-10-09 01:40:20 AM  
4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-10-09 01:48:03 AM  

unlikely: intelligent comment below: tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line


Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment

That's why the media will do whatever it takes to make it a closer race.

 

i41.tinypic.com
 
2012-10-09 01:49:33 AM  
Christ, new polls yesterday have Obama leading by 2 in Pennsylvania and 3 in Michigan, two states where he should easily be polling at least 8-10 points ahead, and they're not those dreaded Fox News or Rasmussen polls the Libs always whine about. Start sounding the alarms Libs, this is starting to look like a problem.
 
2012-10-09 01:50:09 AM  

Phoenix_M: unlikely: intelligent comment below: tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line


Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment

That's why the media will do whatever it takes to make it a closer race. 

[i41.tinypic.com image 340x410]


So making money from more viewers and more campaign ads is a conspiracy?
 
2012-10-09 01:50:56 AM  

Mentat: serpent_sky: I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does.

And he shouldn't have been surprised. If the Democrats haven't learned at this point to assume the worst Rovian tactics from the GOP, they deserve to lose. But every time a Democrat comes along who's willing to go bare-knuckled against the GOP, they either destroy themselves through scandal (Spitzer and Wiener) or the moderates get scared and throw them under the bus. It's all fine and good for the President to stand above the fray, but you've got to have some muscle behind you. Hopefully Biden will play that role in the Veep debate.



1. Historically the incumbent president loses the first debate.

2. The first debate was on domestic issues. The main claims against Obama are the snap shot state of the nation (high debt, high unemployment, low job growth, etc...) In ADD America the tag line "8% unemployment" is powerful, more powerful than explaining job growth for almost the entire period of time Obama has been president, why because it is a simple fast statistic that people understand. Domestic issues Romney (and almost all challengers) have the advantage because you can always find something wrong. Plus the incumbent has 4 years of history that they can not back out on or take a different stance on. It is a fairly standard pattern that comes up in almost every presidential debate. Few incumbent presidents strengths are Domestic issues for these reasons.

3. The next debate (VP debate) is on Domestic/Foreign affairs. Ryan is most well known for his budget (Which is a disaster). Ryan has 0 foreign policy experience. Compare this to who he is debating Biden who on domestic policies he will lose (see point # 2), but the entire reason why Biden is VP is because of his foreign affairs experience. Going beyond policies. You have Ryan who after his RNC speech even conservative news while complimenting it pointed out that it had some issues mostly relating to a lot of it not being factually sound. On the other hand you have Biden who says some odd timed things that make you shake your head. Finally experience, Biden has been a politician for almost as long as Ryan has been alive. The only thing Ryan has over Biden is youth (which he has tried to push, to rather sad ends (see the health nut realm and Rage Against the Machine). If Biden loses this debate it will be a disaster but I have a hard time seeing someone with 40 years of experience and the edge when it comes to content, losing against a pathological liar.

4. The next presidential debate is domestic/foreign affairs, it will be a wash. It is a town hall there will be odd questions and see #2 and #5 they wash out. No winner.

5. The last presidential debate (and the most important one unless someone really crashes and burns, because it is only 2 weeks before the actual election), is on foreign affairs. Romney not only has no real experience with foreign affairs, his last dabbling in it (tour of allies) he managed to insult and piss them off...all of them. It was a fiasco. Foreign affairs is the one category that Obama has done well. The normal people are kicking and screaming, but that is about the only thing that is happening. Even the embassy/consulate attacks are minor (even counting them under Obama there have been fewer deadly attacks on embassies and consulates than any 4 years under Bush). In short unless the president falls flat on his face he is going to have to try really hard to lose that debate.

6. It is not about winning a month before the election it is about winning on the night of the election...which even with the polls Obama is still the probable winner. (Obama at WORST needs 5 states to win (and that assumes he really tanks in some big states), most ways he wins with 3, and at Best he wins 1 (Florida). Romney on the other hand at BEST needs 5 states.



Florida is mandatory for Romney, Ohio is basically mandatory. Many other combinations require him to pull states that have been leaning Obama (like NH and NV). Obama can focus on 2 states where Romney has to focus all over the place, and hope Obama does something really really bad.
 
2012-10-09 01:50:58 AM  

Lando Lincoln: Obama has 230 ways to win, and Romney has 26.


Thanks for posting this. I've said this time, and time, and time again in these poll threads, and I'll say it again:

Based upon current and ongoing poll numbers, Romney has no plausible path to victory without Ohio.


Losing Ohio means Romney has to sweep every other swing state, which is in itself a Herculean task that is extraordinarily improbable, considering out of all those swing states only NC and Colorado aren't Obama-leaning. Meanwhile, Obama has only to win Ohio and one other swing state to win.

Winning Ohio gives Romney a chance at victory. Not even a likely chance at victory, a chance, period. Therefore, unless Romney makes some serious gains in Ohio in the next three weeks, all this hand-wringing about national polling is immaterial.
 
2012-10-09 01:51:20 AM  
After watching the entire debate start to finish with my own eyes and ears, it all seemed like, "Eesh, whatever, fifty-fifty if we're keeping score though Governor Romney came off as a creepy hollow waterbed-salesman, but whatever... boooo-oorring!" to me.

I was humbled to learn the next day that in fact the good former Governor from Massachussetts had in fact most historically and charismatically SKULL-farkED the President of the United States TO DEATH, and that tired, failed Barry Obama had cratered, tanked, spiraled in and been burnt beyond recognition in the single most catastrophic debate implosion of all time - ALL TIME!

Still, my mind was haunted by my own lying perceptions and perspectives and I must confess, in response to the as yet unabated continuous concerted news-media frenzy, my own dismissive eyerolling jerkoff motions.

I admit, I was a fool for trusting my own lying eyes.

But this.

THIS!

I have no defense against this Pollmageddonpocalypse, which makes quite clear that 1) Both Sides Are The Same, and 2) I must therefor vote Mittpublican, or whatever the hell that smarmy douche claims to represent for the next couple hours!
 
2012-10-09 01:52:20 AM  

Phoenix_M: unlikely: intelligent comment below: tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line


Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment

That's why the media will do whatever it takes to make it a closer race. 

[i41.tinypic.com image 340x410]



Pointing out how a business operates is a conspiracy? No, a conspiracy is claiming without any evidence that 0bama secretly will take away your guns
 
2012-10-09 01:52:31 AM  

Lionel Mandrake: fusillade762: Intrade still has Obama ahead with a 64.1% chance of winning.

538 has Obama at 74.8%


If you read Nate's recent articles though, he keeps talking about how his model is too conservative when there's actual events, like the debate. Will take a while to settle out.
 
2012-10-09 01:53:27 AM  
The Big Lie, it'll never stop working. The only factor is how willing you are to toss your scruples.
 
2012-10-09 01:54:09 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: 0bama was just surprised that the characterture he create of Romney (against all regulation, putting people back in chains, never paid taxes, killed a woman since he didn't give her health insurance, giving trillions of tax breaks to the rich, ate a dog, etc) was not reality.


Spelling, grammar, and derp aside, I'm interested in who claimed that Romney ate a dog. Have a citation?
 
2012-10-09 01:54:18 AM  

eraser8: That's not correct. The Pew Survey was "based on telephone interviews conducted October 4-7, 2012, among a national sample of 1,511 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (906 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 605 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 291 who had no landline telephone)."


that only makes it worse, imo. 300 million+ americans and they base their polls of of 1,511 self selecting adults?
 
2012-10-09 01:55:25 AM  

Jragghen: From what I've read, the sample is R+3


Yes, you're right. I noted in another post above:

In September, their "likely voter" population included 38% Democrats and 31% Republicans - a 7-point difference in favor of Democrats, which obviously accounted for an 8-point Obama edge.

In October, their "likely voter" population included 33% Democrats and 36% Republicans - a 3-point difference in favor of Republicans, which just as obviously accounted for a 4-point Romney edge.

In other words, 10 points of the apparent 12-point shift can be attributed to sampling variations. (Take out the margin of error and you can probably claim fairly that it is all attributable to sampling variations.)
 
2012-10-09 01:55:29 AM  

tlchwi02: eraser8: That's not correct. The Pew Survey was "based on telephone interviews conducted October 4-7, 2012, among a national sample of 1,511 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (906 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 605 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 291 who had no landline telephone)."

that only makes it worse, imo. 300 million+ americans and they base their polls of of 1,511 self selecting adults?



Usually polls work fine that way. They do mess up sometimes. like exit polls from the 2000 election
 
2012-10-09 01:56:02 AM  
I think that if the election had happened this past weekend, then Romney's odds of winning would have been way up around 50/50. But the election's nearly 4 weeks away. Mr. 47% has to build momentum and keep this from being just a bounce.

Right now, even with Romney's debate bump, the race is almost exactly where 538's model predicted it would be by this time, and that model has been predicting an Obama victory since the beginning. It's possible that Obama's numbers were artificially high following the Dem convention and the 47% gaffe, and this debate caused the numbers to correct themselves.

It's still Obama's to lose, but I hope he and Biden bring their farking A-game to the remaining debates.
 
2012-10-09 01:56:48 AM  

Burn_The_Plows: tenpoundsofcheese: 0bama was just surprised that the characterture he create of Romney (against all regulation, putting people back in chains, never paid taxes, killed a woman since he didn't give her health insurance, giving trillions of tax breaks to the rich, ate a dog, etc) was not reality.

Spelling, grammar, and derp aside, I'm interested in who claimed that Romney ate a dog. Have a citation?


He's confused, it was Obama that ate the dog, Romney strapped it to the roof of his car.
 
2012-10-09 01:59:04 AM  
Wouldn't this also rile up a Democratic base known to vote less than the Republican base?
 
2012-10-09 01:59:45 AM  

Phil Moskowitz: The only factor is how willing you are to toss your scruples.


That'll cost extra, pal.
 
2012-10-09 02:01:46 AM  

tlchwi02: eraser8: That's not correct. The Pew Survey was "based on telephone interviews conducted October 4-7, 2012, among a national sample of 1,511 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (906 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 605 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 291 who had no landline telephone)."

that only makes it worse, imo. 300 million+ americans and they base their polls of of 1,511 self selecting adults?


Seriously?
 
2012-10-09 02:03:56 AM  

intelligent comment below: Phoenix_M: unlikely: intelligent comment below: tlchwi02: I wonder when these polls will start to consider that there is a huge group of americans who vote, yet who do not own a land line


Then what would the media do for another month? Report on the fact Romney has no chance and have to call out his lies daily? That doesn't make for entertainment

That's why the media will do whatever it takes to make it a closer race. 

[i41.tinypic.com image 340x410]


Pointing out how a business operates is a conspiracy? No, a conspiracy is claiming without any evidence that 0bama secretly will take away your guns


The media is reporting this as a close race because it is a close race. The (credible/academic) polls have been dead even for weeks. Keep drinking the Flavor Aid and enjoy November 6 as it comes down to one or two states and a repeat of 2000. Even the Obama campaign understands this is a close race.
 
2012-10-09 02:08:24 AM  

Phoenix_M: The media is reporting this as a close race because it is a close race. The (credible/academic) polls have been dead even for weeks.


The state polls haven't been particularly close. The president had pretty comfortable leads in PA, OH, IA, WI, NV, FL, VA, NH, CO, etc.

I suspect all of those states are a lot closer now.
 
2012-10-09 02:09:54 AM  

Phoenix_M: The media is reporting this as a close race because it is a close race.



0bama went from 80% to 70% chance of winning, how is that close?

Phoenix_M: The (credible/academic) polls have been dead even for weeks.


Why does the popular vote matter? Do you not know how elections work?

Phoenix_M: Keep drinking the Flavor Aid and enjoy November 6 as it comes down to one or two states and a repeat of 2000.


I think you mean a repeat from 2004, when Kerry made Bush look foolish in the debates

Phoenix_M: Even the Obama campaign understands this is a close race.



Yeah a 70% chance of winning is close. Keep drinking that kool aid
 
2012-10-09 02:10:53 AM  
What do you think will happen at the VP debate? I think Biden will kick Ryan's ass. Ryan has unpopular ideas and Biden is the Obama attack dog and a good debater.
 
2012-10-09 02:14:03 AM  
It's really not that depressing to see these kinds of numbers.

Just goes to show how shallow the American public actually is, and it's almost kind of amusing to note how they forgot what a sh*thole the Bush years were.
 
2012-10-09 02:15:35 AM  

whidbey: It's really not that depressing to see these kinds of numbers.

Just goes to show how shallow the American public actually is, and it's almost kind of amusing to note how they forgot what a sh*thole the Bush years were.



Cognitive dissonance is strong with the large uneducated white male population. Gods guns and gays has won elections for decades, nothing will ever change that. And the worst part is they're the biggest breeders
 
2012-10-09 02:16:10 AM  
So I'm assuming that the model that those guys from the university of Colorado came up with that predicted the Romney win a while back has been proven accurate and Nate Silver has been debunked?
 
2012-10-09 02:16:23 AM  

intelligent comment below: whidbey: It's really not that depressing to see these kinds of numbers.

Just goes to show how shallow the American public actually is, and it's almost kind of amusing to note how they forgot what a sh*thole the Bush years were.


Cognitive dissonance is strong with the large uneducated white male population. Gods guns and gays has won elections for decades, nothing will ever change that. And the worst part is they're the biggest breeders


Not sure if serious RAR reincarnation
 
2012-10-09 02:17:50 AM  
who's rar?
 
2012-10-09 02:17:57 AM  

whidbey: Just goes to show how shallow the American public actually is


No, just the undecideds, most people already had their mind made up before the debates.
 
2012-10-09 02:18:27 AM  

TheJoe03: What do you think will happen at the VP debate? I think Biden will kick Ryan's ass. Ryan has unpopular ideas and Biden is the Obama attack dog and a good debater.


Ryan will do better than a lot of you give him credit for. If nothing else, he's a good salesman, and he's able to cite statistics (lies, damned lies, etc) on the fly. He will come across intelligently.

At the same time, Biden has been lambasted so often as being stupid, that I'd say his expectations are even lower, so he'll probably come off as good.

My expectation of the narrative? Both supported their sides well, Biden may have a slight edge (to give the media their "horse race" narrative, whereas another knockout for the Republicans would push things into a runaway situation which isn't what the media wants.)
 
2012-10-09 02:19:24 AM  

TheJoe03: whidbey: Just goes to show how shallow the American public actually is

No, just the undecideds, most people already had their mind made up before the debates.


Seriously, I've got to wonder who the fark really feels they have the luxury to play the fencesitting game. They need a slap or something.
 
2012-10-09 02:20:53 AM  

Jragghen: Ryan will do better than a lot of you give him credit for. If nothing else, he's a good salesman, and he's able to cite statistics (lies, damned lies, etc) on the fly. He will come across intelligently.


I don't know, he got booed by AARP (aka old people). I wonder if he will run away from his plan, which would anger Tea Party people.
 
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