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(Talking Points Memo)   Pollmageddon continues, Pew polling has Romney up by four, which is a 12 point swing. Not 1-2, twelve   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 363
    More: Unlikely, Pew Research Center, rolling average, overtaking  
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2691 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Oct 2012 at 1:14 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-08 08:28:57 PM
Call me skeptical. But never after 9.
 
2012-10-08 08:39:06 PM
Now, if Obama will just let Romney lie his fkn ass off two more times, this will be relevant.

btw, is Pew exempted from the "polls are skewed" meme? I want to be sure that I can trust them when/if Pew shows Obama taking the lead back
 
2012-10-08 08:43:59 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Now, if Obama will just let Romney lie his fkn ass off two more times, this will be relevant.

btw, is Pew exempted from the "polls are skewed" meme? I want to be sure that I can trust them when/if Pew shows Obama taking the lead back


No, they still over sample democrats and use some of the 2008 turnout models which given the enthusiasm gap is nonsense.

So that is why this is even better news for Romney.

0bama was just surprised that the characterture he create of Romney (against all regulation, putting people back in chains, never paid taxes, killed a woman since he didn't give her health insurance, giving trillions of tax breaks to the rich, ate a dog, etc) was not reality. Surprise! But keep trying to push the meme that Romney lied and 0bama didn't.
 
2012-10-08 08:49:17 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: No, they still over sample democrats and use some of the 2008 turnout models which given the enthusiasm gap is nonsense.

So that is why this is even better news for Romney.



Got it: poll shows Obama ahead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads
Poll shows Romney ahead = Romney in more of a lead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads by more

0bama was just surprised that the characterture he create of Romney (against all regulation, putting people back in chains, never paid taxes, killed a woman since he didn't give her health insurance, giving trillions of tax breaks to the rich, ate a dog, etc) was not reality. Surprise! But keep trying to push the meme that Romney lied and 0bama didn't.

I'm not sure what a "characterture" is, but Romney call be all things to all people, and he often is depending on who he's talking to and when.

For some weird reason, Obama let him get away with it. My gut tells me that's not going to happen again.
 
2012-10-08 08:50:15 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Poll shows Romney ahead = Romney in more of a lead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads by more


redundant sentence is redundant

/and not really a sentence
 
2012-10-08 08:53:25 PM
Not that this is good news, but has anyone read Sullivan today? He's having a complete mental breakdown, I think.
 
2012-10-08 08:55:51 PM

Lionel Mandrake: tenpoundsofcheese: No, they still over sample democrats and use some of the 2008 turnout models which given the enthusiasm gap is nonsense.

So that is why this is even better news for Romney.


Got it: poll shows Obama ahead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads
Poll shows Romney ahead = Romney in more of a lead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads by more

0bama was just surprised that the characterture he create of Romney (against all regulation, putting people back in chains, never paid taxes, killed a woman since he didn't give her health insurance, giving trillions of tax breaks to the rich, ate a dog, etc) was not reality. Surprise! But keep trying to push the meme that Romney lied and 0bama didn't.

I'm not sure what a "characterture" is,

here. the idea is that the caricature looks nothing like the actual person.

but Romney call be all things to all people, and he often is depending on who he's talking to and when.

For some weird reason, Obama let him get away with it.

Because 0bama doesn't have a clue of what is going on in the economy. He only knows hope and change, some stories about his grandma and some made up stories and viewpoints about Romney. He is believing his own campaign ads.

My gut tells me that's not going to happen again.

 
2012-10-08 08:59:53 PM
Unskewed Polls would probably have the REAL numbers from PEW be about a 29% lead for Romney.
 
2012-10-08 09:02:11 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: here. the idea is that the caricature looks nothing like the actual person.


Oh, I know what a "caricature" is, but I don't visit that particular obscure blog, so you'll have to forgive me.

Because 0bama doesn't have a clue of what is going on in the economy. He only knows hope and change, some stories about his grandma and some made up stories and viewpoints about Romney. He is believing his own campaign ads.

What can I say to that? Some claims are so farking ridiculous one doesn't even know where to begin, and figures no amount of evidence will un-fark a perception that obtuse anyway...

So, I'll leave you to dream that Obama and Biden will merely sit back and let the objectively disprovable BS flow from Romney/Ryan. If they do, R/R have a real chance of winning.

But it would be a fool indeed who expects a repeat of the first debate.
 
2012-10-08 09:02:17 PM

AdolfOliverPanties: Unskewed Polls would probably have the REAL numbers from PEW be about a 29% lead for Romney.


That is incorrect.
The skew that people talk about is usually 3-4 points.
 
2012-10-08 09:02:24 PM

GleeUnit: Romney has actually has a 28% lead


AdolfOliverPanties: Unskewed Polls would probably have the REAL numbers from PEW be about a 29% lead for Romney.


Glad to see you and I are on the same page, friend. Remain ever vigilant.
 
2012-10-08 09:02:47 PM
The scary thing about this is that Pew really does have a significant Democratic bias. This is not one of those Republican fantasies. The typical Pew bias is 3 points for the Dems, according to no less an authority than Nate Silver at 538. (National Review says the normal Pew bias is 5 points, but they're not entirely disinterested observers.)

If Romney is up 4 in a Pew poll, his actual lead could be far more.
 
2012-10-08 09:05:22 PM

Lionel Mandrake: tenpoundsofcheese: here. the idea is that the caricature looks nothing like the actual person.

Oh, I know what a "caricature" is, but I don't visit that particular obscure blog, so you'll have to forgive me.

Because 0bama doesn't have a clue of what is going on in the economy. He only knows hope and change, some stories about his grandma and some made up stories and viewpoints about Romney. He is believing his own campaign ads.

What can I say to that? Some claims are so farking ridiculous one doesn't even know where to begin, and figures no amount of evidence will un-fark a perception that obtuse anyway...

So, I'll leave you to dream that Obama and Biden will merely sit back and let the objectively disprovable BS flow from Romney/Ryan. If they do, R/R have a real chance of winning.

But it would be a fool indeed who expects a repeat of the first debate.


I don't expect a repeat.
I expect that both will be much more aggressive.
I expect that Romney will be more prepared with more facts and proposals and 0bama will try some more false narratives based on some emotional appeals (Romney being against all regulation, destroying the middle class).
 
2012-10-08 09:07:16 PM
Outlier. Per Silver, Gallup and Rasmussen both showed thins shifting slightly back in Obama's direction today, after Romney's weekend bounce. Pew has the candidates now tied among women, after Obama previously showed an 18-point lead with female voters. WTF did Rmoney say in the debate to cause that much of a swing?

It's kind of cruel watching republicans get their hopes up like this.
 
2012-10-08 09:07:23 PM
Just goes to show you how stupid the country is as a whole. Low information voters who change their opinions based on feel and the sway of the media. Lies are fine as long as the guy telling them is loud and gets the last word on every topic. Rebutting those lies was done early with no impact due to said bullying on the stage.

Everyone calling Obama a pussy. Go f*ck yourself. 1) you are not helping political discourse 2) Obama did not act like a pussy on stage, he stuck to facts and his positions and was consistent with his positions unlike Romney.

The harsh truth is that the public responded more to the fact that Obama didn't call him out for his bullsh*t shifting positions and his total lies. Obama did this early on taxes by saying Romney's plan would cost $5 trillion. And Romney's response: nuh-uh and I want the last word, which is: nuh-uh.

While I would like to have seen Obama do a better job of defending his positions on several issues, he wasn't nearly as bad as people are saying. When your opponent doesn't have a position on anything, lies erratically and switches positions mid-debate to match your positions, WTF are you going to do? It's too bad that apparently a good 10-15% of the country responds to bullsh*t in this way.
 
2012-10-08 09:08:28 PM

tomasso: If Romney is up 4 in a Pew poll, his actual lead could be far more.



Or it's statistical noise and next week they'll have Romney 2 points behind. They're way outside where the other polls have this race right now.
 
2012-10-08 09:09:29 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Pew has the candidates now tied among women, after Obama previously showed an 18-point lead with female voters. WTF did Rmoney say in the debate to cause that much of a swing?


Alpha male factor appeal. It's hard wired into their brains.
 
2012-10-08 09:10:06 PM
This poll is correct because the GOP agrees with the results.
 
2012-10-08 09:13:17 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: I expect that Romney will be more prepared with more facts and proposals


This implies that Romney has used facts in the past. Fail.

By "repeat" I mean an obvious victory for Romney. Won't. Happen.

And like all bumps, this will flatten. As bad as Obama was, it was far from a train wreck.

If something similar happens in all the coming debates, it will be a train wreck. This was merely a wake-up call. And they woke up.
 
2012-10-08 09:16:20 PM

tomasso: The scary thing about this is that Pew really does have a significant Democratic bias. This is not one of those Republican fantasies. The typical Pew bias is 3 points for the Dems, according to no less an authority than Nate Silver at 538. (National Review says the normal Pew bias is 5 points, but they're not entirely disinterested observers.)

If Romney is up 4 in a Pew poll, his actual lead could be far more.


The link that says Pew is skewed to Obama also says Gallup is skewed towards Romney. Gallup had them tied today. So...Obama is really in the lead?
 
2012-10-08 09:17:13 PM

Lionel Mandrake: And like all bumps, this will flatten. As bad as Obama was, it was far from a train wreck.



It was a train wreck, but the cars didn't leave the track and it continues on with a slightly-rattled engineer who knows he'd better try f*cking harder.
 
2012-10-08 09:20:11 PM

tomasso: The scary thing about this is that Pew really does have a significant Democratic bias. This is not one of those Republican fantasies. The typical Pew bias is 3 points for the Dems, according to no less an authority than Nate Silver at 538. (National Review says the normal Pew bias is 5 points, but they're not entirely disinterested observers.)

If Romney is up 4 in a Pew poll, his actual lead could be far more.


This is true in general, but its important to look at the crosstabs. Looking at this poll, what jumps out is that the poll had a +3 GOP sample. To steal from someone at DK:

In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more Republican than Democratic, Obama loses. The question is will the turnout be that way?

In 2004, with George W. Bush having the advantage of incumbency and what is considered one of the better turnout operations in recent elections, the electorate ended up 37-all between D and R. I highly doubt we'll see an R+3 electorate next month, but if so, yeah, Obama will lose.


Pew didn't do anything nefarious or wrong, this was their actual sample. You just need to take it in context.
 
2012-10-08 09:22:01 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Lionel Mandrake: And like all bumps, this will flatten. As bad as Obama was, it was far from a train wreck.


It was a train wreck, but the cars didn't leave the track and it continues on with a slightly-rattled engineer who knows he'd better try f*cking harder.


When I think "train wreck," I picture:

encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.comencrypted-tbn1.gstatic.comencrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com

...so, I think we share the same view of the debate.
 
2012-10-08 09:22:24 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Got it: poll shows Obama ahead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads
Poll shows Romney ahead = Romney in more of a lead = inaccurate: Romney actually leads by more


It's similar to their logic on the jobs report:

Jobs number bad for Obama = Gospel

Jobs number good for Obama = Conspiracy
 
2012-10-08 09:24:17 PM
I posted this earlier in a different thread, but I posted it at the end so I don't think many people saw it and I wanted to share, because it was a lot of work.

If you agree that there's 8 battleground states...and I'm pretty sure most of us can agree on that, at least...

That means that there's 256 possible combinations of wins and losses for those 8 states (excluding ties).

Currently 8 battleground states (numbers in parentheses are their EV value)

FL (29)
OH (18)
NC (15)
VA (13)
CO (9)
IA (6)
NV (6)
NH (4)

Total of 100 EV's.

Romney needs 79 more EV's to win. Obama needs 23 more to win.

Here's all the ways I could figure out how Romney could win:

I did a spreadsheet of all possible combinations of wins and losses.

imageshack.us

And here's the 24 scenarios in which Romney could win, plus two extra, because if Romney and Obama tie in the EV count, then the House would choose the President, and those retards would choose Romney.

Notice that if Romney loses Florida, he can't win.

If Romney loses Ohio, then there's only two possible ways that he can win.

If Obama takes Florida, he wins.
If Obama takes Ohio and New Hamshire (or any other battleground state, for that matter) then he wins.

Obama has 230 ways to win, and Romney has 26.
 
2012-10-08 09:25:19 PM

shower_in_my_socks: They're way outside where the other polls have this race right now.


I wish that were so, but it's not really true. In fact, Pew's and Gallup's numbers are exactly identical if you compare them apples-to-apples.


Background:

The 50-45 Gallup line people have been citing is a 7-day trend line based on polls of registered voters. It includes interviews from several days before the debate.

The Pew line consists of likely voters, based on polls taken in the three days following the debate.

-------------

Let's find some true matches and compare:

Gallup polled registered voters in the period Oct 4-7 and found the candidates tied 47-47.

Pew polled registered voters in the period Oct 4-6 and found the candidates tied 46-46.

------------------------

Mind you, these apples-to-apples numbers do not show Romney in the lead, but (1) they are based on registered voters, not likely voters (I couldn't find directly comparable data on "likely"); (2) they are identical, and the Pew data on registered voters was collected from the same population as the 4-point Romney edge in likely voters, thus indicating that Pew's result should not to be viewed as an outlier, given that Gallup found the identical result from the identical sorting; (3) hey, Romney is still tied - ain't that bad enough?

I'm not panicking yet. The election is still determined by the electoral college and I want to see some reliable new data in Florida and Ohio. Plus there are many days left for Romney to trip over his own feet.
 
2012-10-08 09:27:05 PM
The reality is that all Obama's ammo is wet. Everybody is talking about the debate performance - not the facts, not the reality of giving the keys back to the guys who got us in this mess, not tax returns, not Romney's inconsistencies and lies, but they are talking about Obama's poor performance. And this is real momentum. It's looking harder and harder to swing back to reality and start drubbing the Republicans back as they have control of the narrative and all the initiative they need.
 
2012-10-08 09:33:41 PM

DamnYankees: This is true in general, but its important to look at the crosstabs.


You make some good points. Thanks for the insights.
 
2012-10-08 09:44:29 PM
electoral-vote.com

This is the graph that excludes the states where Romney and Obama are statistically tied. If you include them, the graph looks much worse for Romney.

I'm not too worried right now.
 
2012-10-08 09:51:14 PM
Intrade still has Obama ahead with a 64.1% chance of winning.
 
2012-10-08 09:57:16 PM

For some weird reason, Obama let him get away with it. My gut tells me that's not going to happen again.

I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does. Never mind things like saying he wouldn't have gone for Simpson-Bowles, but the President should have. How do you deal with those levels of insanity and lies? Especially while staying Presidential in the face of someone acting like either a petulant child on the playground or a boorish drunk who showed up at a party?
 
2012-10-08 09:57:40 PM
The funniest part of this poll coming out has been watching Andrew Sullivan just sweat, puke, bleed, pee, and crap despair all over his blog.
 
2012-10-08 09:59:40 PM

serpent_sky: For some weird reason, Obama let him get away with it. My gut tells me that's not going to happen again.

I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does. Never mind things like saying he wouldn't have gone for Simpson-Bowles, but the President should have. How do you deal with those levels of insanity and lies? Especially while staying Presidential in the face of someone acting like either a petulant child on the playground or a boorish drunk who showed up at a party?


When most people are flustered, they go with the game plan.  In this case, 47% was the game plan.  He blanked.  I don't think it was simple disbelief.  He wasn't ready to debate period.  He will be next time.  But he screwed up. 
 
2012-10-08 10:01:59 PM

fusillade762: Intrade still has Obama ahead with a 64.1% chance of winning.


538 has Obama at 74.8%
 
2012-10-08 10:09:23 PM
Jesus Christ. I hope Obama knocks these next two debates out of the park. If a crappy little debate like that first one is all it takes to get people to vote for Romney -- despite the positive jobs numbers -- then we are screwed, my friends.
 
2012-10-08 10:18:52 PM

BSABSVR: The funniest part of this poll coming out has been watching Andrew Sullivan just sweat, puke, bleed, pee, and crap despair all over his blog.


I think someone needs to remind him that he needs to chill the fark out - Obama's got this.
 
2012-10-08 10:29:03 PM

James F. Campbell: Jesus Christ. I hope Obama knocks these next two debates out of the park. If a crappy little debate like that first one is all it takes to get people to vote for Romney -- despite the positive jobs numbers -- then we are screwed, my friends.


Oh make no mistake - we are screwed no matter what. This is just a matter of how quickly we want that screwing to happen, and whether we want to delay it a few years.
 
2012-10-08 10:30:44 PM

BSABSVR: The funniest part of this poll coming out has been watching Andrew Sullivan just sweat, puke, bleed, pee, and crap despair all over his blog.


for those who missed it. I think it sums up what 0bama refers to when he say that there is a laziness in him:

"I remember how he just threw away the primary race in New Hampshire, rather than fighting. I recall how he allowed Obamacare to languish in the Congress for months, almost lost it with Scott Brown's election, and finally brought it home. I remember how he let DADT drift for months, only to pull it from the fire in the nick of time in a lame-duck Congress. He does this. He works your last nerves. But I have never seen him phone it in as weakly as he did last week, and I can see no strategy behind it."
 
2012-10-08 10:44:35 PM

serpent_sky: I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does.


Except that isn't what happened. Romney repeated the same old lies he's been using for the last 3 months- the Solyndra BS, the $716 Billion from Medicare BS, the Deficit BS, The death panels BS... on and on and on. And Obama failed at refuting ANY of them. Really? WTF? Did his advisors really think that Romney wouldn't bring those up? And the excuse that "this was a different Romney" is incredibly lame- Is Obama so incapable of reacting to different circumstances that he couldn't adjust?
 
2012-10-08 10:49:44 PM

Dinki: serpent_sky: I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does.

Except that isn't what happened. Romney repeated the same old lies he's been using for the last 3 months- the Solyndra BS, the $716 Billion from Medicare BS, the Deficit BS, The death panels BS... on and on and on. And Obama failed at refuting ANY of them. Really? WTF? Did his advisors really think that Romney wouldn't bring those up? And the excuse that "this was a different Romney" is incredibly lame- Is Obama so incapable of reacting to different circumstances that he couldn't adjust?
yes, that is why he prefers to go on The View instead of meeting world leaders during turmoil in the MidEast it is why he is the apologist in chief. He is a great campaigner. Leader, nope.


but it isn't just that.
look at the one thing that 0bama had in his complete control. something he should have nailed regardless of what Romney said: the closing statement.

Go listen to the two closing statements again and tell me who wanted to win and who wanted to go play another round of golf.
 
2012-10-08 11:02:34 PM
Follow-up: Note that Damn Yankees' analysis above is right on.

I checked the complete data for Pew's September and October samples.

In September, their "likely voter" population included 31% Democrats and 38% Republicans - a 7-point difference in favor of Democrats, which obviously accounted for an 8-point Obama edge.

In October, their "likely voter" population included 36% Democrats and 33% Republicans - a 3-point difference in favor of Republicans, which just as obviously accounted for a 4-point Romney edge.

In other words, 10 points of the apparent 12-point shift can be attributed to sampling variations. (Take out the margin of error and you can probably claim fairly that it is all attributable to sampling variations.)

Could it be not just a shift in the sample, but a shift in the population? Could it mean that more people now self-identify as Republicans? Not likely, in my opinion. I think it's just sampling. It may in fact be a deliberate attempt by Pew to adjust for previous problems in their methodology.
 
2012-10-08 11:04:10 PM

tomasso: In September, their "likely voter" population included 31% Democrats and 38% Republicans - a 7-point difference in favor of Democrats, which obviously accounted for an 8-point Obama edge.


Did you reverse those number?

tomasso: Could it be not just a shift in the sample, but a shift in the population? Could it mean that more people now self-identify as Republicans? Not likely, in my opinion. I think it's just sampling. It may in fact be a deliberate attempt by Pew to adjust for previous problems in their methodology.


Party ID is not weighed for or sampled. It's just asked and reported. Pollsters dont adjust for it.
 
2012-10-08 11:13:43 PM

DamnYankees: Did you reverse those number?


Yes, you're right. It should read:

In September, their "likely voter" population included 38% Democrats and 31% Republicans - a 7-point difference in favor of Democrats, which obviously accounted for an 8-point Obama edge.

In October, their "likely voter" population included 33% Democrats and 36% Republicans - a 3-point difference in favor of Republicans, which just as obviously accounted for a 4-point Romney edge.

In other words, 10 points of the apparent 12-point shift can be attributed to sampling variations. (Take out the margin of error and you can probably claim fairly that it is all attributable to sampling variations.)
 
2012-10-08 11:21:02 PM

Lando Lincoln: I posted this earlier in a different thread, but I posted it at the end so I don't think many people saw it and I wanted to share, because it was a lot of work.

If you agree that there's 8 battleground states...and I'm pretty sure most of us can agree on that, at least...

That means that there's 256 possible combinations of wins and losses for those 8 states (excluding ties).

Currently 8 battleground states (numbers in parentheses are their EV value)

FL (29)
OH (18)
NC (15)
VA (13)
CO (9)
IA (6)
NV (6)
NH (4)

Total of 100 EV's.

Romney needs 79 more EV's to win. Obama needs 23 more to win.

Here's all the ways I could figure out how Romney could win:

I did a spreadsheet of all possible combinations of wins and losses.

[imageshack.us image 652x636]

And here's the 24 scenarios in which Romney could win, plus two extra, because if Romney and Obama tie in the EV count, then the House would choose the President, and those retards would choose Romney.

Notice that if Romney loses Florida, he can't win.

If Romney loses Ohio, then there's only two possible ways that he can win.

If Obama takes Florida, he wins.
If Obama takes Ohio and New Hamshire (or any other battleground state, for that matter) then he wins.

Obama has 230 ways to win, and Romney has 26.


And on the topic of Florida and Ohio
 
2012-10-08 11:27:49 PM

DamnYankees: Party ID is not weighed for or sampled. It's just asked and reported. Pollsters dont adjust for it.


I know. I assumed they may have adjusted the methodology they use to obtain the sample. Why? Because (1) it was consistently producing poor samples, and (2) even the impartial Nate Silver was claiming they were consistently biased by three points in favor of Dems. If I faced the bias/inaccuracy problem they have faced consistently since 1992, I'd ask why and start to think about modifying my metholodogy.

But I didn't actually read their reports to see whether they added or subtracted cellphones or something like that, I was too lazy to go through all that. I just assumed they may have made some changes. It may also be that their usual sampling process with completely consistent methodology produced such a wide disparity from month-to-month ...

... but that seems like a mighty big random change.
 
2012-10-08 11:29:08 PM

cretinbob: And on the topic of Florida and Ohio


That article and data are pre-debate(Sep 26).
 
2012-10-08 11:35:27 PM

dugitman: cretinbob: And on the topic of Florida and Ohio

That article and data are pre-debate(Sep 26).


Duly noted. Of course all the numbers are pretty much back where they were before the conventions. Numbers go up, numbers go down. Let's see what happens next week
 
2012-10-08 11:40:50 PM

dugitman: cretinbob: And on the topic of Florida and Ohio

That article and data are pre-debate(Sep 26).


Ohio is now tied.
Romney is within the margin of error .
 
2012-10-09 12:01:24 AM
I'm still thinking something is off somewhere. There's a gigantic variation in polls when you add in the Pew poll. Something is off somewhere, and when Pew is the outlier, they are probably the outlier.
 
2012-10-09 12:07:04 AM

serpent_sky: I think President Obama, and everyone who has been paying attention, was blindsided by Romney completely disavowing everything he has said for the past year and essentially claiming to espouse things that the President does.


And he shouldn't have been surprised. If the Democrats haven't learned at this point to assume the worst Rovian tactics from the GOP, they deserve to lose. But every time a Democrat comes along who's willing to go bare-knuckled against the GOP, they either destroy themselves through scandal (Spitzer and Wiener) or the moderates get scared and throw them under the bus. It's all fine and good for the President to stand above the fray, but you've got to have some muscle behind you. Hopefully Biden will play that role in the Veep debate.
 
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