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(The New York Times)   "The decline in unemployment under Mr. Obama this year since December is the largest in an election year since Ronald Reagan's re-election bid"   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 222
    More: Cool, Ronald Reagan, decline  
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1418 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Oct 2012 at 5:12 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 01:24:48 PM
I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.
 
2012-10-05 01:36:48 PM

DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.


BECAUSE THE U6 (which no one cares about, generally) AND PEOPLE DROPPING OUT AND CARTER! CAAAAAARRRTERRRRRR!

// nah, just joshing
// it's because Libya
// (what the GOP believes - expect this to be THE thing Romney talks about at the FP debate)
 
2012-10-05 01:54:06 PM

DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.


Conservatives: Job data are phony
 
2012-10-05 01:56:15 PM

mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony


they don't believe polls so why should they believe jobs data? Conservatives are the new conspiracy party.
 
2012-10-05 02:11:06 PM
This will come full circle when the Republicans claim this is just a temporary blip due to earlier holiday hiring and that we should really cut back on Christmas as a major shopping holiday.
 
2012-10-05 02:43:04 PM

mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony


sure. if it's above 8 percent, it's legit. below, and it's bullshiat.

this is what republicans actually believe.
 
2012-10-05 02:45:46 PM

mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony


i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-05 02:55:41 PM
My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.
 
2012-10-05 03:01:25 PM

OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.


which ones?
 
2012-10-05 03:05:54 PM

OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.


imageshack.us 

looks like he isn't doing too badly so far.
 
2012-10-05 03:13:02 PM

FlashHarry: OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.

which ones?


Allow 5 days of public comment before signing non-emergency bills
Close Guantanamo Bay Detention Center
Annual Speech to lay out national security policy
Negotiate Health Care Reform in public sessions
FMLA - Employee Count Threshold Reduction
Require Employers to provide 7 paid sick days per year

Besides his more generic "Hope/Change" message which he promptly discarded in favor of signing Patriot Act extensions, increasing DHS/TSA authorities as well as stupid things like banning the sale of clove cigarettes. 

Some of these things he's not had great control over, but simple ones his administration had direct control over, and chose to do otherwise.

Full disclosure: Mitt does not excite me either.
 
2012-10-05 03:26:12 PM

OSULugan: Besides his more generic "Hope/Change" message which he promptly discarded in favor of signing Patriot Act extensions, increasing DHS/TSA authorities as well as stupid things like banning the sale of clove cigarettes. 

Some of these things he's not had great control over, but simple ones his administration had direct control over, and chose to do otherwise.

Full disclosure: Mitt does not excite me either.


fair enough - though hope and change is pretty tough when the entire republican party is unified against you, with the media parroting its bullshiat.

still, ending DADT, passing obamacare, and enacting wall st. reform (weak though it may be), is a lot of hope and change for a single term. when you add it to preventing a second worldwide depression, i'm inclined to cut the guy some serious slack.
 
2012-10-05 03:31:55 PM

FlashHarry: air enough - though hope and change is pretty tough when the entire republican party is unified against you, with the media parroting its bullshiat.


What he said. The Republican party pretty much blatantly said that they would nuke our economy if that what it takes to make Obama a one term President. The fact that Romney has the balls to talk about unemployment given the fact that he made his fortune destroying American companies and sending jobs to China shows that he is completely clueless or thinks everyone else is.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:24 PM

OSULugan: FlashHarry: OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.

which ones?

Allow 5 days of public comment before signing non-emergency bills
Close Guantanamo Bay Detention Center
Annual Speech to lay out national security policy
Negotiate Health Care Reform in public sessions
FMLA - Employee Count Threshold Reduction
Require Employers to provide 7 paid sick days per year

Besides his more generic "Hope/Change" message which he promptly discarded in favor of signing Patriot Act extensions, increasing DHS/TSA authorities as well as stupid things like banning the sale of clove cigarettes. 

Some of these things he's not had great control over, but simple ones his administration had direct control over, and chose to do otherwise.

Full disclosure: Mitt does not excite me either.


All of your problems are with Congress except for the Annual Speech and public comment ones. The public comment one is never going to happen - I would be willing to bet if you were elected you yourself wouldn't follow through on this.

The public option and Guantanamo ones though, he really tried to push that through. he just isn't a dictator

Health Care - Link

Guantanamo - Link
 
2012-10-05 03:54:55 PM

OSULugan: FlashHarry: OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.

which ones?

Allow 5 days of public comment before signing non-emergency bills
Close Guantanamo Bay Detention Center
Annual Speech to lay out national security policy
Negotiate Health Care Reform in public sessions
FMLA - Employee Count Threshold Reduction
Require Employers to provide 7 paid sick days per year

Besides his more generic "Hope/Change" message which he promptly discarded in favor of signing Patriot Act extensions, increasing DHS/TSA authorities as well as stupid things like banning the sale of clove cigarettes. 

Some of these things he's not had great control over, but simple ones his administration had direct control over, and chose to do otherwise.

Full disclosure: Mitt does not excite me either.


DRINK!!!
 
2012-10-05 04:01:48 PM
BUT WHAT ABOUT FARTREAGANS U6 NUMBERS?
 
2012-10-05 04:04:42 PM
I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.
 
2012-10-05 04:11:29 PM
Who is this "Ronny Reagan" and what happened to his presidential bid? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
 
2012-10-05 04:12:55 PM
Clearly unemployment went down because of Romney's performance at the debate.
 
2012-10-05 04:18:22 PM

Tell Me How My Blog Tastes: Who is this "Ronny Reagan" and what happened to his presidential bid? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?


He's this talking head who keeps appearing on all the cable access news / personality shows. I didn't know he ran for President. I know his Dad was into politics or something, not sure.
 
2012-10-05 04:24:49 PM
So yesterday Obama was an empty suit who couldn't organize a circle jerk if you spotted him all the lefties, but today he's a Machiavellian uber-genius who can manipulate data like Mozart at the harpsichord?

Is there some kind of schedule that's printed so we know which day is which?
 
2012-10-05 04:26:20 PM

aaronx: I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.


The delta of -0.3% drop in the U3 in one month is huge. 0.4% since August. That's a 0.2% drop each month. If that improvement continues you would have 7.3% by the end of Obama 1st term.

Assuming it even progressed at half that rate, you would be looking at 5.5% is less than 2 years. It is more about trajectory than anything else.

Consider that U3 was at 9% this time last year. That is a very impressive improvement. Outpacing Reagan's recovery in his last but also outpacing other industrialized economies. At that rate you will be well under 6% next year. The prospect of this happening while Obama is in charge is truly terrifying for the GOP.
 
2012-10-05 04:31:30 PM

mrshowrules: aaronx: I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.

The delta of -0.3% drop in the U3 in one month is huge. 0.4% since August. That's a 0.2% drop each month. If that improvement continues you would have 7.3% by the end of Obama 1st term.

Assuming it even progressed at half that rate, you would be looking at 5.5% is less than 2 years. It is more about trajectory than anything else.

Consider that U3 was at 9% this time last year. That is a very impressive improvement. Outpacing Reagan's recovery in his last but also outpacing other industrialized economies. At that rate you will be well under 6% next year. The prospect of this happening while Obama is in charge is truly terrifying for the GOP.


Which makes Romney's promise to bring unemployment down to 6% by the end of his first term interesting.
 
2012-10-05 04:34:29 PM

SnakeLee: All of your problems are with Congress except for the Annual Speech and public comment ones. The public comment one is never going to happen - I would be willing to bet if you were elected you yourself wouldn't follow through on this.


Perhaps, but I wouldn't promise to do it to get elected in the first place.

And while I'm sure Congressional opposition to President Obama has been a thorn in his side, his non-answer to Wednesday's debate question on crossing party lines is indicative of the administration's problems in getting initiatives through congress.
 
2012-10-05 04:36:15 PM

propasaurus: mrshowrules: aaronx: I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.

The delta of -0.3% drop in the U3 in one month is huge. 0.4% since August. That's a 0.2% drop each month. If that improvement continues you would have 7.3% by the end of Obama 1st term.

Assuming it even progressed at half that rate, you would be looking at 5.5% is less than 2 years. It is more about trajectory than anything else.

Consider that U3 was at 9% this time last year. That is a very impressive improvement. Outpacing Reagan's recovery in his last but also outpacing other industrialized economies. At that rate you will be well under 6% next year. The prospect of this happening while Obama is in charge is truly terrifying for the GOP.

Which makes Romney's promise to bring unemployment down to 6% by the end of his first term interesting.


I think we could bank on Romney having a math guy as good at this kind of projection as the GOP collective is at the other.
 
2012-10-05 04:38:00 PM

propasaurus: mrshowrules: aaronx: I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.

The delta of -0.3% drop in the U3 in one month is huge. 0.4% since August. That's a 0.2% drop each month. If that improvement continues you would have 7.3% by the end of Obama 1st term.

Assuming it even progressed at half that rate, you would be looking at 5.5% is less than 2 years. It is more about trajectory than anything else.

Consider that U3 was at 9% this time last year. That is a very impressive improvement. Outpacing Reagan's recovery in his last but also outpacing other industrialized economies. At that rate you will be well under 6% next year. The prospect of this happening while Obama is in charge is truly terrifying for the GOP.

Which makes Romney's promise to bring unemployment down to 6% by the end of his first term interesting.


That would certainly make an interesting rebuttal point if anyone minimizes how quickly the U3 is dropping under Obama.
 
2012-10-05 04:49:23 PM

DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.


I'm sure of it.
 
2012-10-05 05:12:38 PM

Mr. Coffee Nerves: So yesterday Obama was an empty suit who couldn't organize a circle jerk if you spotted him all the lefties, but today he's a Machiavellian uber-genius who can manipulate data like Mozart at the harpsichord?

Is there some kind of schedule that's printed so we know which day is which?


No, he's both at the same time.

He's also a Muslim-socialist and a radical-Christian-fascist. simultaneously.
 
2012-10-05 05:18:30 PM
This just proves Obama is better than Reagan.
 
2012-10-05 05:21:46 PM
It's pretty obvious that Big Bird and Oscar the Grouch pulled a black-bag job last night at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and changed the numbers.
 
2012-10-05 05:22:33 PM
Except Reagan's was actually real and Obama's is due to people dropping out of the work force and numbers being fudged to make him look better after he got curb stomped in the debate.
 
2012-10-05 05:23:55 PM

FlashHarry: mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony

sure. if it's above 8 percent, it's legit. below, and it's bullshiat.

this is what republicans actually believe.


More general Republican belief: If it confirms what we're yelling and FWD:FWD:FWDing about, it's legit. If it doesn't, it's bullshiat.
 
2012-10-05 05:24:01 PM

mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony


You have to go to http://www.unskewedjobdata.com for the real data. It'll show you that the unemployment rate is much closer to 82%, and jumped from 0.1% to over 75% almost overnight on 1/20/2009.

I'm just re-weighting the data.
 
2012-10-05 05:24:37 PM

mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony


IOW: "it's only good when we're in power!!!!"

/fark you conservatards
//also, there goes the Romney 'Mo"
 
2012-10-05 05:25:20 PM

doyner: Clearly unemployment went down because of Romney's performance at the debate.


Some farkwit at my work said just that today:

"It's because big business knows Romney has a shot now."

"Y'know, that report was put together way before the debates right?"

*crickets*
 
2012-10-05 05:25:34 PM

FlashHarry: OSULugan: My problem with President Obama is the broken promises, not the unemployment.

[imageshack.us image 361x275] 

looks like he isn't doing too badly so far.


And if one is being honest, Congress had a LOT to do with some of those.
 
2012-10-05 05:25:41 PM

randomjsa: Except Reagan's was actually real and Obama's is due to people dropping out of the work force and numbers being fudged to make him look better after he got curb stomped in the debate.


How did those numbers get fudged exactly? Details please.
 
2012-10-05 05:25:58 PM

AkaDad: This just proves Obama is better than Reagan.


Reagan is to the right wing what Jesus is to the Catholic Church....

/someone they use as an icon of worship to get others to do what they want but they would crucify them if they were around for their actual beliefs...
 
2012-10-05 05:26:40 PM
Looks like blocking his jobs bill prevented yet more squandering.
 
2012-10-05 05:27:16 PM

Fuggin Bizzy: mahuika: DamnYankees: I'm sure this is somehow bad for Obama.

Conservatives: Job data are phony

You have to go to http://www.unskewedjobdata.com for the real data. It'll show you that the unemployment rate is much closer to 82%, and jumped from 0.1% to over 75% almost overnight on 1/20/2009.

I'm just re-weighting the data.


It's skewed to closely to the employed.

It over samples people with jobs.
 
2012-10-05 05:27:25 PM
Time to "unskew" the employment numbers?
 
2012-10-05 05:27:56 PM

Bag of Hammers: doyner: Clearly unemployment went down because of Romney's performance at the debate.

Some farkwit at my work said just that today:

"It's because big business knows Romney has a shot now."

"Y'know, that report was put together way before the debates right?"

*crickets*


Hah~! Also, this is bad for Romney. If the numbers stay static, the first debate was essentially a mulligan for Obama.
 
2012-10-05 05:27:58 PM

randomjsa: Except Reagan's was actually real and Obama's is due to people dropping out of the work force and numbers being fudged to make him look better after he got curb stomped in the debate.


Strange, this graph doesn't show that It shows it has flatlined

Link
 
2012-10-05 05:28:48 PM
Obviously jobs data is phony because we live in this grand utopia where people can just quit looking for work and do without money.
 
2012-10-05 05:29:07 PM

randomjsa: Except Reagan's was actually real and Obama's is due to people dropping out of the work force and numbers being fudged to make him look better after he got curb stomped in the debate.


You know, those things are easy to disprove, if you're interested. I have a feeling you're not.
 
2012-10-05 05:29:30 PM

AkaDad: This just proves Obama is better than Reagan.


Obama is WAY better than Reagan, if closely behind Clinton (and could eclipse Clinton if he had a decent Congress).

My presidential rankings for the past 30 years or so:
Clinton > Obama > Reagan > Bush Sr. > Carter > Bush Jr.
 
2012-10-05 05:30:01 PM

jst3p: Time to "unskew" the employment numbers?


No, they just compare u3 to u6 and act like it's OK

m.static.newsvine.com
 
2012-10-05 05:30:09 PM

aaronx: I think them job numbers suck donkey balls, and I'm an Obama-voting Lib-tard.

7.8% is nothing to brag on, so why are people making it out to be such a big deal?

If Obama wants to really make me happy, he needs to have the government take out some of those ridiculously cheap loans on offer and put some people back to work.


You want the Congressional Republicans to start yelling "WHAR?! STIMULUS, WHAR?!"

I agree with you but...unless Obama wins and is basically able to flip the bird at the Congressional GOP come January, it's not happening.
 
2012-10-05 05:31:00 PM
snarkysmachine.files.wordpress.com

'He wins a debate. You cook the employment numbersh. Thash the Chicago Way.'
 
2012-10-05 05:32:04 PM

meat0918: jst3p: Time to "unskew" the employment numbers?

No, they just compare u3 to u6 and act like it's OK

[m.static.newsvine.com image 600x346]


How can unemployment rate for government workers be 5.1%? Isn't it definitionally 0%? If you aren't employed, you aren't a government employee.
 
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