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(Gallup)   Obama's abysmal debate performance results in a dismal +1 increase in his Gallup numbers   (gallup.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Gallup, obama, rolling averages, telephone interviews, Mitt Romney  
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2954 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:43 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 04:36:52 PM  

DamnYankees: Of those three, only Hitler got where he was via election, and he did so without a majority.


Wait. You're right, Mussolini was actually Parliamentary. Fair 'nuff. And I'm not sure who I was thinking of with Stalin, he was a party appointee as well.

Oh, well, what I get for not second-checking like usual before posting shiat on the internet. My bad.

//Still... Hitler's a valid example. Does that mean the thread's done?
 
2012-10-05 04:36:55 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: Smelly McUgly: As Mr. Silver also pointed out at 538, it's unlikely that one debate would cause a swing of more than three percent when looking at it historically. More than likely, this is just a case of polls being oversampled R to fire up the base after the debate.

Especially at a debate where nothing really remarkable happened. Despite the screaming, neither side massively under or over performed, no one said anything massively stupid or smart. Romney did better then expected, Obama worse, but not to the point of, say, the First Lady wanting to have sex with Mitt Romney.


Yeah, if Obama had made a major gaffe, then MAYBE we get more movement, but this type of movement is so extreme as to be comical. The True Believers will eat it up, but I would guess that a quick look at the internals reveals some jerry-rigging of the sampling.
 
2012-10-05 04:37:26 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: Smelly McUgly: As Mr. Silver also pointed out at 538, it's unlikely that one debate would cause a swing of more than three percent when looking at it historically. More than likely, this is just a case of polls being oversampled R to fire up the base after the debate.

Especially at a debate where nothing really remarkable happened. Despite the screaming, neither side massively under or over performed, no one said anything massively stupid or smart. Romney did better then expected, Obama worse, but not to the point of, say, the First Lady wanting to have sex with Mitt Romney.


Not according to the "liberal media". If you go just by what they say Romney cured cancer while Obama vomited up the white babies he ate earlier in the day
 
2012-10-05 04:37:45 PM  

Edward Rooney Dean of Students: shower_in_my_socks: Silver is saying

That's all i need to hear! No need for any other information whatsoever!


Do you dispute what he says, or are you just here to be angry?
 
2012-10-05 04:38:16 PM  

bulldg4life: DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?


No but Rmoney killed a big bird.
 
2012-10-05 04:38:40 PM  

colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".


White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.
 
2012-10-05 04:38:53 PM  
Wake me when the bookies change their odds. (Currently Obama is at 4 to 1 to win.)
 
2012-10-05 04:40:02 PM  
STATE Obama Romney Gary Johnson Undecided GOP / DEM / IND
OHIO 46% 47% 1% 6% 34/38/28
FLORIDA 46% 49% 1% 4% 38/33/29
VIRGINIA 45% 48% 2% 5% 34/32/34

That's how well Romney did in the debates.
 
2012-10-05 04:41:25 PM  
The other thing is that Republicans seem to believe that the polls are oversampled for Democrats.

Here's the thing: I have never seen any proof that this is true. Even Gallup indicates that Party ID is tilted toward the Democratic Party by about +6, IIRC. Every time I see a Party ID chart, it indicates a 6-8% lead for the Democratic Party.

You also have circumstantial evidence such as the influx of Hispanic voters in our system that overwhelmingly register as Democrats. Taken together, it's pretty clear that the demographics indicate that most people in this country identify with the Democrats and register as such.

Where is the proof that, here in 2012, most voters are still identifying as Republicans? I'd love to see it.
 
2012-10-05 04:41:32 PM  

make me some tea: There are still 3 more debates to go.

Reportedly, Obama heard the internet's cry havoc and is going to adjust his style for the next round.


Axelrod said that almost immediately after the debate. Something like they had intentionally chosen to stay away from "serial fact checking" Romney during the debate, I think were his words, to try to actually focus on substantive issues. And obviously that didn't work so they were going to reevaluate and adjust for the next round.

/Translation: We didn't think even he was stupid enough to keep lying that loud and that long. Our bad.
 
2012-10-05 04:43:23 PM  
I think the big swing from this debate will be in "R" voter's Romney Confidence Index. Meaning, we will be hearing from a LOT of Fark Independents who were anti-Obama, are now going to be pro-Romney. I don't think any undecided voters are won by Mitt's debate performance.
 
2012-10-05 04:44:47 PM  

Smelly McUgly: Where is the proof that, here in 2012, most voters are still identifying as Republicans? I'd love to see it.


"Nobody I know voted for Nixon"
 
2012-10-05 04:46:34 PM  

vygramul: timujin: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.

Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
[www.majhost.com image 371x250]

Note that his odds includes a heavy dose based on economic news, which makes up about 25% of the input.


Only in the regular forecast. The Nowcast is pure polls. Of course, the unemployment number will help in the regular forecast.
 
2012-10-05 04:47:06 PM  

ManateeGag: this is the first I'm hearing of this "We Ask America" place. Are they another, "we make shiat up to support our candidate" sites?


I only believe the results of 'Guaranteed Objective Polling, inc'.
 
2012-10-05 04:48:41 PM  

CynicalLA: colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".

White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.



"Mitt Romney kicked Barack Obama's ass so thoroughly Wednesday night, Attorney General Eric Holder has considered charging him with a hate crime."

/not mine
//not voting for mitt
///just think its funny
 
2012-10-05 04:48:53 PM  

CynicalLA: colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".

White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.


i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about what happened. i could have described it a bit more elegantly. sorry if i offended your delicate sense of bility.
 
2012-10-05 04:50:52 PM  

DamnYankees: bulldg4life: DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?

Reasonable? No. Likely? No. Evidence of a solid jump for Romney? Yes.


From a site that's currently down.

Whether you want a traditional interview poll or a large-sample automated survey, We Ask America can provide you with timely, accurate and affordable results.

Don't know how the surveys were conducted, what the MOE is, nothing.

Hell, their Twitter account has the farking egg avatar.

I'll wait for something concrete, thanks.
 
2012-10-05 04:51:27 PM  

NIXON YOU DOLT!!!!!: Translation: We didn't think even he was stupid enough to keep lying that loud and that long. Our bad.


That was a big miscalculation. Mitt and the rest of his party have done nothing but exactly that for 1.5 years now. I don't know why they would've expected any different. Oh well, hopefully they fix it next time.
 
2012-10-05 04:53:45 PM  

colon_pow: CynicalLA: colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".

White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.

i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about what happened. i could have described it a bit more elegantly. sorry if i offended your delicate sense of bility.


I think the most unrealistic part of it was you implying Romney would do janitorial work.
 
2012-10-05 04:56:23 PM  

Aarontology: colon_pow: CynicalLA: colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".

White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.

i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about what happened. i could have described it a bit more elegantly. sorry if i offended your delicate sense of bility.

I think the most unrealistic part of it was you implying Romney would do janitorial work.


i think that's the second time this week you made me click your funny button.
 
2012-10-05 04:56:53 PM  
The only good thing that can come out of a Romney win is the return of anti-war marches.
 
2012-10-05 05:02:48 PM  

Vectron: The only good thing that can come out of a Romney win is the return of anti-war marches.


Even the loudest anti-war march will be muted by the collective population of the rest of the world laughing at the US.

/but Canada would get more money with Romney in office
//yay Keystone pipeline!
 
2012-10-05 05:03:08 PM  

Aarontology: colon_pow: CynicalLA: colon_pow: romney kicked obamas ass, then mopped the floor with it and then handed it to him and said "here mr. president. here's your ass".

White trash suck at trolling. You can do better. Go do a little a meth and try again.

i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about what happened. i could have described it a bit more elegantly. sorry if i offended your delicate sense of bility.

I think the most unrealistic part of it was you implying Romney would do janitorial work.



Who would you rather have clean your house? Mitt or Obama? I bet Mitt would do a the better job and not steal anything.
 
2012-10-05 05:04:36 PM  

Vectron:
Who would you rather have clean your house? Mitt or Obama? I bet Mitt would do a the better job and not steal anything.


Ooo, Mitt! Definitely Mitt.
My wife is a Jehovah's Witness. That would be a fun conversation to listen to :)
 
2012-10-05 05:05:40 PM  

mrshowrules: Noam Chimpsky: Obama's got a ways to go to catch up to Dukakis's pre-election Gallup numbers. He's not even up to Jimmy Carter's ( vs Reagan ) pre-election numbers.

Reagan lead Carter from May 1980 to the election.


Link

Gallup had Carter pulling away with it in last two months. Their own trial heat graphs wouldn't lie, would they?
 
2012-10-05 05:07:27 PM  

DamnYankees: Smelly McUgly: I also hear that we are particularly partial to fried chicken and watermelon.

Wait a second.

There are black people on Fark?


t1.gstatic.com

Some one get an admin, quick!
 
2012-10-05 05:08:33 PM  

wippit: Vectron:
Who would you rather have clean your house? Mitt or Obama? I bet Mitt would do a the better job and not steal anything.

Ooo, Mitt! Definitely Mitt.
My wife is a Jehovah's Witness. That would be a fun conversation to listen to :)



Better not try to pay him in copies of Watchtower!
 
2012-10-05 05:11:19 PM  
So, who's the asshole that gets the credit for reporting on "Obama's dismal record?"

Where is everyone getting this conventional wisdom from?

rlv.zcache.com
 
2012-10-05 05:13:37 PM  
It's pretty safe to say that while Romney's performance in the first debate will help, the jobs report will blunt most of whatever gains he could've gotten.

Now, if by the time the second debate rolls around the numbers are similar to how they were before the first, it's doubly bad for Romney. The first debate, effectively, not only becomes a mulligan for Obama, he now knows how Romney works and can attack him from that position.
 
2012-10-05 05:16:06 PM  

make me some tea: DamnYankees: make me some tea: What site is that from?

FiveThirtyEight. You're not familiar with it?

I am now, thanks.


Oh man (ma'am), you're gonna love it.

/Nate addict
 
2012-10-05 05:20:06 PM  

sendtodave: dahmers love zombie: Intrade's monthly chart:


So, from the Romneyan "free market" perspective, we're still looking at the investors giving Obama a nearly 7 in 10 chance.

Damn, I knew I should have sold my shares of Obama last month!


Doesn't matter what you bought them for, they will be worth $10 come Nov.
 
2012-10-05 05:20:46 PM  

Rwa2play: It's pretty safe to say that while Romney's performance in the first debate will help, the jobs report will blunt most of whatever gains he could've gotten.

Now, if by the time the second debate rolls around the numbers are similar to how they were before the first, it's doubly bad for Romney. The first debate, effectively, not only becomes a mulligan for Obama, he now knows how Romney works and can attack him from that position.


I think there is a little rope-a-dope going on. Obama went straight to nuts and bolts, which obviously is boring. The post-debate analysis has mostly focused on how emotional Romney was. No new numbers or policies to consider, but Mitt seems less like a corporatist robot. I don't know how that translates to Obama losing the debate as many people would like us to believe.
 
2012-10-05 05:23:58 PM  
Psst, this doesn't change the fact that Obama lost the debate horrifically because, and only because, Romney presented conservative ideas and as usual liberals had nothing in response.
 
2012-10-05 05:26:29 PM  

karmaceutical: I think there is a little rope-a-dope going on.



I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.
 
2012-10-05 05:28:25 PM  

Vectron: karmaceutical: I think there is a little rope-a-dope going on.


I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.


It should amuse me that so many want Obama to be a dictator in the White House as well as on public TV during a debate.

Behaving courteously to your opponent and pointing out how full of crap he is apparently isn't enough.
 
2012-10-05 05:28:30 PM  

Vectron: I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.


Obama was in Denver, not Mt. Everest. Not even Aspen.
 
MFL
2012-10-05 05:29:01 PM  
Smelly McUgly
The other thing is that Republicans seem to believe that the polls are oversampled for Democrats.

That's because they obviously are.

There is no way in hell democrats are going to have a 6 to 8 point advantage this election like the record performance in 2008. That was a one time deal for the Democrats. The political landscape is completely different with the GOP consistently out performing at best or breaking even at worst with democrats when likely voters are considered.

We are looking at a turnout model that will be something more like 2004 than 2008. Obama isn't getting any GOP crossovers this time and he isn't winning independents which he did last time by a huge margin.

Lets be honest.
Demcrats control the media. They create the narrative and they create the polls to push that narrative. But "narratives" are not always real as we saw the other night when that out of touch moran Mitt Romney made the most eloquent speaker of our time look like a bumbling fool who is now blaming everything under the sun to why he got his butt handed to him.

I think the bigger lesson that democrats need to take away from the other night is to not believe your own bullshiat. Because when that's all you've got to stand on you will end up making an ass of yourself like the president did.
 
2012-10-05 05:31:02 PM  

BSABSVR: Vectron: I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.

Obama was in Denver, not Mt. Everest. Not even Aspen.


I've felt bad after driving from sea level to 5,000 ft.
 
2012-10-05 05:32:42 PM  

MFL: That's because they obviously are.

There is no way in hell democrats are going to have a 6 to 8 point advantage this election like the record performance in 2008. That was a one time deal for the Democrats. The political landscape is completely different with the GOP consistently out performing at best or breaking even at worst with democrats when likely voters are considered.

 

punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-10-05 05:35:13 PM  

Vectron: karmaceutical: I think there is a little rope-a-dope going on.


I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.



I think he honestly wanted to talk about facts Jim Lehrer fashion while the viewing public wanted blood sport.
 
2012-10-05 05:35:49 PM  

MFL: Demcrats control the media. They create the narrative and they create the polls to push that narrative. But "narratives" are not always real as we saw the other night when that out of touch moran Mitt Romney made the most eloquent speaker of our time look like a bumbling fool who is now blaming everything under the sun to why he got his butt handed to him.


It's the media has been pumping out the narrative that Romney is an "out of touch moran". Apparently MR connected to people better than we were told he would.

Good post!
 
2012-10-05 05:42:15 PM  

karmaceutical: Vectron: karmaceutical: I think there is a little rope-a-dope going on.


I'd go with Obama not feeling well. I think Al Gore is right. Altitude sickness is no joke.


I think he honestly wanted to talk about facts Jim Lehrer fashion while the viewing public wanted blood sport.


Seriously. Maybe next time it should be gladiator style, with sword and shield.
 
2012-10-05 05:43:24 PM  
I think the GOP internal monologue goes something like: Wait, you mean we got to the debate and we're not already far behind? In spite of our candidate's gaffes about, say, the "fundamentals of the economy are strong" as the stock market is caving in, or "I'll never convince 47% of the nation's people to care for their lives," our guy got to the debate and there's still at least some glimmer of hope?

And he didn't make a complete ass of himself in the debate? Like, brain-damage-level facepalming was not happening across the party? There are no cringe-inducingly bad photos of our candidate on the stage?

And the prospect of a vice presidential debate does not have our guy's campaign team vomiting with anxiety about what our ignorant hick loose cannon will do behind the podium? Like, our VP candidate doesn't have to write notes on his hand this time?

Really?

VICTORY! Now we have all the proof we need that, if our guy doesn't get into the White House, ACORN MUSLIM U.N. TREASON INSURRECTION SECOND AMENDMENT!
 
2012-10-05 05:47:59 PM  

bulldg4life: Mercutio74: Makes sense, he's a very thorough guy and seems to be genuinely fascinated by data analysis as opposed to trying to cook the books to make the race seem to be something it's not.

Didn't he also nail the 2008 election perfectly?


Yes, he did well. But note, a common mistake is to rate pollsters by "who called the election correctly" based on a poll they put out 3 days before the eleciton. What sets Nate Silver apart from others is that he has built a complex model to look at polls, the economy, and other factors to predict the probability of the election outcome months in advance. In this case, 6 months. While most pollsters take a snapshot of 'what will happen if the election were today', Silver is able to say "but I expect the polls will narrow in this way here, but not there, and look like this 6 months from now on election day."
 
2012-10-05 05:52:41 PM  

DamnYankees: New polls from We Ask America:


I would trust Rasmussen polling before We Ask America polling.
 
2012-10-05 05:57:10 PM  

Vectron: I've felt bad after driving from sea level to 5,000 ft.



Obama has been to Denver multiple times before, business travelers, professional speakers and athletes do it every day. Celebrities will fly straight from Sea level to 8,000 feet (which is the typical low limit of altitude sickness). The guy also has access to a doctor 24-7 and could have huffed oxygen all day if he were feeling altitude sickness. It's not like he flew into town 4 seconds before the debate. A height-weight proportionate adult in resonably good shape is highly unlikely to be suffering from altitude sickness after 24 hours in Denver.
 
2012-10-05 05:59:55 PM  

OceanVortex: snowshovel: DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


UNSKEWED AFTER

FL: Romney +7.3
OH: Romney +9.6
VA: Romney +11.3

Unskeweder After:

FL: Romney +79.3
OH: Romney +eleveinty-twelve
VA: Romney +40 brazillion


Fixed
 
2012-10-05 06:02:44 PM  
Romney was in such a big hole before the debate that it is unlikely that one performance will turn the tide. He'll make up ground, but public attention is fleeting; before you know it, the VP debate will be here on Thursday, and shortly after that, the second presidential debate.

If Romney turns in a strong performance for each debate, then he'll succeed in flooding the news cycles with positives about his campaign - which can change perception and even create momentum leading up to Election Day. With that being said, I don't think even people within Romney's campaign think Obama will turn in a duplicate of this week's performance come October 16th. They probably expect him to come out firing in a format that is much-better suited to his natural strengths.

Throw in a positive jobs report and you have a situation that doesn't represent a 'turning of the tide' moment for Romney. Early voting has already started, which means Obama has more than likely created a cushion of votes that will be there no matter what happens between now and then (like, for example, his developing an inexplicable and overpowering urge to eat a kitten in front of a national audience). Most voters have already made up their mind and a debate performance - for good or for ill for Romney - won't change things. Undecideds probably won't change their mind, on a whole, until closer to the election, as usual.

Not the most ideal situation for Obama, but Romney still has a very long way to go.
 
2012-10-05 06:04:33 PM  

randomjsa: Psst, this doesn't change the fact that Obama lost the debate horrifically because, and only because, Romney presented conservative ideas and as usual liberals had nothing in response.


Putting $716 million back into Medicare is a conservative idea?

Keeping the ban on pre-existing conditions is a conservative idea?

Face it dumbass, the only reason he won is because he abandoned the fringe on the right and finally started moving toward the center.

If anything, he won because he abandoned conservative ideas.
 
2012-10-05 06:13:24 PM  
The GOP openly rooting for the failure of the economy and their incessant conspiracy theories in response to the positive jobs report are getting major media play.

Any momentum Romney had coming out of the debates will be gone. Moreover, the jobs news will have a longer spread and Obama will end up on top before the next presidential debate. I'm not sure about state polling, but I can't see Romney doing well in Florida after his Medicare debacle in the debate and Ohio didn't have enough room in the MoE for the few undecideds to make much difference on the whole.

My take.
 
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