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(Gallup)   Obama's abysmal debate performance results in a dismal +1 increase in his Gallup numbers   (gallup.com) divider line 198
    More: Interesting, Gallup, obama, rolling averages, telephone interviews, Mitt Romney  
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2940 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:43 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 02:42:36 PM  
His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8
 
2012-10-05 02:47:34 PM  
Eh, margin of error is +/- 2.
 
2012-10-05 02:48:25 PM  

DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


I'll wait until such things get analyzed by Silver.
 
2012-10-05 02:49:03 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

I'll wait until such things get analyzed by Silver.


I should add that there's no way I think there's been up to a 16point swing as the result of those debates.
 
2012-10-05 03:02:56 PM  
There are still 3 more debates to go.

Reportedly, Obama heard the internet's cry havoc and is going to adjust his style for the next round.
 
2012-10-05 03:05:53 PM  
Reuters/Ipsos just released its tracker for the day. Obama is +2, down from +5 yesterday. Very bad.
 
2012-10-05 03:05:56 PM  
"We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.
 
2012-10-05 03:06:04 PM  

make me some tea: There are still 3 more debates to go.

Reportedly, Obama heard the internet's cry havoc and is going to adjust his style for the next round.


I wouldn't adjust anything until I'd see the polling data at beginning of next week. Who cares what the media wants, Obama's playing for the election.
 
2012-10-05 03:23:41 PM  
this is probably based on the actual debate rather than the post-debate ZOMG OBAMA SUCKED media pile-on. i'm guessing his poll numbers will go down a bit as the sheeple digest their infotainment.
 
2012-10-05 03:25:19 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.


Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
www.majhost.com
 
2012-10-05 03:25:57 PM  

DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?
 
2012-10-05 03:26:02 PM  

timujin: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.

Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
[www.majhost.com image 371x250]


No polling has come out since the debate, those numbers dont mean much. Expect a pretty sharp fall in the next few days. He'll probably fall under 80% today.
 
2012-10-05 03:26:31 PM  
There isn't enough data to tell what kind of an effect the debate will have. By the time the data comes in, we'll be able to discuss it briefly before the VP debate airs, and the entire discussion starts over again.

Historically, even first debates generally don't give more than a 2 point bump or so.
 
2012-10-05 03:26:43 PM  

vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?


What do you mean?
 
2012-10-05 03:26:59 PM  
He needs to put a little giddy up in his game. This is a horse race, and before we trot out is gallop numbers, we should remember that whinny won the 2008 election, he definitely did buck tradition. You can say "whoa" all you want, but this is a foal court press. Even the mare of Chicago Rahm Emmanuel, knows that. Show of hands, how many of you ponied up money for the campaign? Not just lip service, but pure bred from your wallet? Or did you just prance around your neighborhood, collecting signatures, trying to promote the brand? Or worse, election day comes and you just bale? I'm in it to win it, and not just for Obama, but for the new crop of candidates. Anything to get rid of old warhorses like Canter, or that other guy from filly.
 
2012-10-05 03:27:26 PM  

timujin: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.

Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
[www.majhost.com image 371x250]


What site is that from?
 
2012-10-05 03:27:28 PM  

timujin: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.

Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
[www.majhost.com image 371x250]


Note that his odds includes a heavy dose based on economic news, which makes up about 25% of the input.
 
2012-10-05 03:29:19 PM  

make me some tea: What site is that from?


FiveThirtyEight. You're not familiar with it?
 
2012-10-05 03:29:44 PM  

DamnYankees: vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?

What do you mean?


You haven't seemed to me to be so pessimistic in the past, but what tore it for me is actually referring to a We Ask America poll, which is 9 points off other polls in VA and Nate Silver considers to have significant house bias in favor of Republicans. You may as well quote Fox News on the economic news.

Doesn't seem like you to do that unquestioningly.
 
2012-10-05 03:32:08 PM  

vygramul: DamnYankees: vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?

What do you mean?

You haven't seemed to me to be so pessimistic in the past, but what tore it for me is actually referring to a We Ask America poll, which is 9 points off other polls in VA and Nate Silver considers to have significant house bias in favor of Republicans. You may as well quote Fox News on the economic news.

Doesn't seem like you to do that unquestioningly.


The point is the We Ask America poll WAS in line with the other polls the last time. It hasn't shown a consistent bias in favor of Romney at all. So why shouldn't I take those numbers as legit?
 
2012-10-05 03:32:13 PM  

DamnYankees: make me some tea: What site is that from?

FiveThirtyEight. You're not familiar with it?


I am now, thanks.
 
2012-10-05 03:33:09 PM  
We've secretly replaced Damn Yankees with Chicken Little. Let's see if anyone notices.
 
2012-10-05 03:37:44 PM  

DamnYankees: vygramul: DamnYankees: vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?

What do you mean?

You haven't seemed to me to be so pessimistic in the past, but what tore it for me is actually referring to a We Ask America poll, which is 9 points off other polls in VA and Nate Silver considers to have significant house bias in favor of Republicans. You may as well quote Fox News on the economic news.

Doesn't seem like you to do that unquestioningly.

The point is the We Ask America poll WAS in line with the other polls the last time. It hasn't shown a consistent bias in favor of Romney at all. So why shouldn't I take those numbers as legit?


His posts have been unnerving to say the east. Even though I don't believe this type of polling swing to be possible, the mere notion of it is terrifying to me.

The absolute maximum bump Romney could possibly get is 3%. However, as badly as anyone thinks Obama debated, he didn't do anything to make himself less likable. Likewise, although Romney might have done very well, he certainly didn't come off as more likable either IMHO.

I'm predicting a 2% bump for Romney but with the jobs report today, even that will be tenuous IMHO.
 
2012-10-05 03:37:50 PM  

DamnYankees: vygramul: DamnYankees: vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?

What do you mean?

You haven't seemed to me to be so pessimistic in the past, but what tore it for me is actually referring to a We Ask America poll, which is 9 points off other polls in VA and Nate Silver considers to have significant house bias in favor of Republicans. You may as well quote Fox News on the economic news.

Doesn't seem like you to do that unquestioningly.

The point is the We Ask America poll WAS in line with the other polls the last time. It hasn't shown a consistent bias in favor of Romney at all. So why shouldn't I take those numbers as legit?


Pollsters do a variety of different polls over a variety of different time periods, and different polls done different ways mean different things.

Most meaningful polls take 3-4 days to get the proper response numbers with the proper representative population to get to the "N". As such, while polls done Thurs or Friday can be interesting snapshots, they mean very little for a trendline without further data points more days out.

tl;dr: Because of how polling and statistics work
 
2012-10-05 03:43:10 PM  
The only people that are influenced by the first debate are the undecided's

You know, morans
 
2012-10-05 03:47:57 PM  
Its "All Hail Obama, Right or Wrong" or "Derp" for some people around here, with no room in between.
 
2012-10-05 03:49:49 PM  

Torgo_of_Manos: The only people that are influenced by the first debate are the undecided's

You know, morans


Seriously. Anyone paying attention already knows, and no one who doesn't already know is not watxhing any debates
 
2012-10-05 03:51:01 PM  

DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8



UNSKEWED AFTER

FL: Romney +7.3
OH: Romney +9.6
VA: Romney +11.3
 
2012-10-05 03:51:30 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Pollsters do a variety of different polls over a variety of different time periods, and different polls done different ways mean different things.

Most meaningful polls take 3-4


National polls are not meaningful. Citing national polling was incredibly stupid when Romney and Ryan did it and citing national polls now is incredibly stupid. The POTUS is not elected by national poll. The POTUS should be but is not. The only meaningful polls are swing state polls, one by one.
 
2012-10-05 03:52:13 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: He needs to put a little giddy up in his game. This is a horse race, and before we trot out is gallop numbers, we should remember that whinny won the 2008 election, he definitely did buck tradition. You can say "whoa" all you want, but this is a foal court press. Even the mare of Chicago Rahm Emmanuel, knows that. Show of hands, how many of you ponied up money for the campaign? Not just lip service, but pure bred from your wallet? Or did you just prance around your neighborhood, collecting signatures, trying to promote the brand? Or worse, election day comes and you just bale? I'm in it to win it, and not just for Obama, but for the new crop of candidates. Anything to get rid of old warhorses like Canter, or that other guy from filly.


meh
 
2012-10-05 03:53:12 PM  
i.imgur.com


The only thing certain about this election is who loses. Us
 
2012-10-05 03:54:25 PM  

timujin: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: "We Ask America's" site is broken, at that.

I hadn't been to 538 in a couple days, basically said to disregard any numbers until next week anyway, which I figured. "Flash polls" are almost always useless when judging the long-term effect of anything, even aside from the fact that their population selection is sketchy and their N is low.

Here's the only one that really matters. I hovered over Oct 2 so the difference between now and before the debate would be clear:
[www.majhost.com image 371x250]


An Obama win is only trading at $6.90 at Intrade. Tidy little 31% profit to be had.
 
2012-10-05 03:55:05 PM  
Modern presidential debates are largely meaningless pageantry that provides nothing other than fodder for the political news media, and a tool for the Team Donkey vs. Team Elepant people to bludgeon each other over the head with in the never ending politics-as-sports event that's replaced baseball as the true national pasttime.
 
2012-10-05 03:55:24 PM  

make me some tea: DamnYankees: make me some tea: What site is that from?

FiveThirtyEight. You're not familiar with it?

I am now, thanks.


Hey look! A politics tab discussion thread caused genuine learn'n to happen! Neat!
 
2012-10-05 03:56:39 PM  

OceanVortex: make me some tea: DamnYankees: make me some tea: What site is that from?

FiveThirtyEight. You're not familiar with it?

I am now, thanks.

Hey look! A politics tab discussion thread caused genuine learn'n to happen! Neat!


Come on in, politics people! There's a doin's transpirin'!
 
2012-10-05 03:57:13 PM  
Yes, but if you unskew those polls, that means Romney +7.8. Which is exactly what unemployment is according to the Obama regime. Which is also the latest version of the Windows phone, which is a Microsoft product, which was the owner of the store that was destroyed by rapper Machine Gun Kelly, who is not white (just like Obama).

Coincidence? I think not. This is a coded appeal to minorities to smash the state in order to propel Obama to a win or to destroy the country before Romney can right it.
 
2012-10-05 03:57:58 PM  

snowshovel: DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


UNSKEWED AFTER

FL: Romney +7.3
OH: Romney +9.6
VA: Romney +11.3


Unskeweder After:

FL: Romney +79.3
OH: Romney +eleveinty-twelve
VA: Romney +40 bazillion
 
2012-10-05 03:58:31 PM  

DamnYankees: vygramul: Did you leave your account open and a "friend" stole it or something?

What do you mean?


don't you know? Nate Silver is the only authority allowed on fark.
 
2012-10-05 03:58:51 PM  

DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?
 
2012-10-05 03:58:59 PM  

tomWright: [i.imgur.com image 850x467]


The only thing certain about this election is who loses. Us


Yes yes .. They are all bad.

Do me a favor: kill yourself.
 
2012-10-05 03:59:31 PM  

bulldg4life: DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?


Reasonable? No. Likely? No. Evidence of a solid jump for Romney? Yes.
 
2012-10-05 03:59:37 PM  

InmanRoshi: Team Donkey vs. Team Elepant


Which is the slightly effete Englishman and which is the Native American lookin' kid?
 
2012-10-05 04:00:23 PM  

lennavan: The POTUS is not elected by national poll. The POTUS should be but is not. The only meaningful polls are swing state polls, one by one.


Electoral college and parliamentary nomination systems for choosing a chief executive officers have, at worst, given the world some Andrew Jacksons and Margaret Thatchers.

Direct popular election systems have given us Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini.

I think historically the indirect methods are ahead at this point.
 
2012-10-05 04:01:08 PM  

colon_pow: don't you know? Nate Silver is the only authority allowed on fark.


Makes sense, he's a very thorough guy and seems to be genuinely fascinated by data analysis as opposed to trying to cook the books to make the race seem to be something it's not.
 
2012-10-05 04:01:17 PM  

DamnYankees: Reasonable? No. Likely? No. Evidence of a solid jump for Romney? Yes.


Hell, he had no where to go but up. He's been screwing things up for the past three weeks. Any good news at all in any form would provide a reasonable bump for him.

Of course, bumps fade and the job numbers aid in that.
 
2012-10-05 04:01:31 PM  

DamnYankees: bulldg4life: DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?

Reasonable? No. Likely? No. Evidence of a solid jump for Romney? Yes.


What's likely happened is that WeAskAmerica put in a place their "likely voter" filter in their results, and FWIW Silver has previously given WeAskAmerica a Republican Lean in their house effects.
 
2012-10-05 04:01:37 PM  

Jim_Callahan: lennavan: The POTUS is not elected by national poll. The POTUS should be but is not. The only meaningful polls are swing state polls, one by one.

Electoral college and parliamentary nomination systems for choosing a chief executive officers have, at worst, given the world some Andrew Jacksons and Margaret Thatchers.

Direct popular election systems have given us Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini.

I think historically the indirect methods are ahead at this point.


Of those three, only Hitler got where he was via election, and he did so without a majority.
 
2012-10-05 04:02:00 PM  

DamnYankees: His state by state numbers look pretty bad though. New polls from We Ask America:

BEFORE

FL: Obama +3.6
OH: Obama +7.6
VA: Obama +2.8

AFTER

FL: Romney +3
OH: Romney +1
VA: Romney +3

BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8


Those are online polls.
 
2012-10-05 04:02:07 PM  

Mercutio74: Makes sense, he's a very thorough guy and seems to be genuinely fascinated by data analysis as opposed to trying to cook the books to make the race seem to be something it's not.


Didn't he also nail the 2008 election perfectly?
 
2012-10-05 04:02:08 PM  

bulldg4life: DamnYankees: BUMP

FL: Romney +6.6
OH: Romney +8.6
VA: Romney +5.8

You read those and feel they are reasonable jumps? Did Obama kill a small puppy on screen when I wasn't watching?


yeah, you should have seen it. he pulled off the head, punted the body into the audience, at its brain and did a little puppet show mocking Romney with the skull.
 
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