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(Hot Air)   You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs   (hotair.com) divider line 594
    More: Followup, CNBC, Chris Cuomo, warehousing, bright spot, Bureau of Labor Statistics  
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9111 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:00 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 04:53:50 PM

colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

It almost looks like you typed that with belief, but go ahead if that makes you feel better.

I mean if they can tweek it that much why not do it a couple of months earlier and inch it down to 6%? Really, it's just a rhetorical question because you seem smart enough to know and it pains you to have to push this BS talking point but I like your commitment to the cause.

just thinking outside the box. if they can juice the numbers, they would be fools not to do so.


If they were able to, then unemployment numbers from the BLS would have been -2% for the last 20 years trending down.
 
2012-10-05 04:53:58 PM
8% of people registered at the unemployment office...
or
8% of people collecting unemployment?

Obama let fly that there are 3 million jobs currently available. From now on, I'd like to see a state-by-state ratio of people registered as unemployed versus the number of open positions. This could help determine how much more training in particular areas is needed. Could also help decide who can work and who won't work.
 
2012-10-05 04:56:23 PM

colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.


So, it's just this most recent report that is fake and the fall in unemployment is real up until NOW? Have I got that right?
 
2012-10-05 04:56:34 PM

lymond01: 8% of people registered at the unemployment office...
or
8% of people collecting unemployment?

Obama let fly that there are 3 million jobs currently available. From now on, I'd like to see a state-by-state ratio of people registered as unemployed versus the number of open positions. This could help determine how much more training in particular areas is needed. Could also help decide who can work and who won't work.


Sounds like you have your Doctoral thesis all set.
 
2012-10-05 04:59:52 PM

o5iiawah: Its too bad that graph doesn't has numbers,


i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-05 05:00:42 PM

dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link


Wow... I'm sure that will effect 10s of people. I'm sure the new regulations on businesses having to report such situations are going to be very welcome.
 
2012-10-05 05:02:56 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I was listening to someone speaking on CNBC (keep in mind, this is, CNBC, not exactly a venue for fellating the Obama Administration) and they said one of the notable things about this report was that the employment rate actually did go down due to people getting more jobs and keeping.


This...

/also, the number of August and September job gains were revised upwards again
//but keep at that chicken

...and that.
 
2012-10-05 05:02:56 PM
Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed
 
2012-10-05 05:03:47 PM

jst3p: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

That's a tough one. I was on unemployment in 2001. I could have taken a minimum wage job that paid about the same as my benefits but it was only about 60% of my salary. I felt my time was better spent focusing on my job search.


Did you read the link? It would not have effected you... at all.
 
2012-10-05 05:05:47 PM
Chris Matthews is SCHOOLING Jack Welch right now.
 
2012-10-05 05:06:17 PM

theknuckler_33: jst3p: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

That's a tough one. I was on unemployment in 2001. I could have taken a minimum wage job that paid about the same as my benefits but it was only about 60% of my salary. I felt my time was better spent focusing on my job search.

Did you read the link? It would not have effected you... at all.


Of course not I was unemployed in 2001 and not in Ten. DUH!

No I assumend and typed, this is fark after all!
 
2012-10-05 05:08:36 PM

theknuckler_33: colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.

So, it's just this most recent report that is fake and the fall in unemployment is real up until NOW? Have I got that right?


according to my sources, i believe this may in fact be the case.
 
2012-10-05 05:09:01 PM
Truthers, Birthers, and now Jobbers. It's always fun to watch wack-a-doodle conspiracy theories be born in real time.
 
2012-10-05 05:09:49 PM
"Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs"


What about people who die?

They're no longer "unemployed", right?
 
2012-10-05 05:09:55 PM

Bag of Hammers: I guess we can look forward to this story every time unemployment drops a percentage of a point. It's not Fark, it's Troll-lol-lo!


It's the natural progression.

1. Cherry pick statistics that make things seem as terrible as possible.

2. When even the bad statistics look up, claim 1 month isn't a trend.

3. Once there is a trend, complain that the numbers that make up the trend are wrong. After all, I personally know a guy who is still unemployed.
 
2012-10-05 05:10:48 PM
The ADP numbers, which are calculated by payroll analysis instead of sample populations, also show a decrease in unemployment. Don't let reality get in the way of your narrative, GOP, it has never stopped you before.
 
2012-10-05 05:11:05 PM
If I were going to fake an employment number, I'd pick a better one.
FFS... the jobs added exceeded expectations but they were not of the October Surprise variety. Dammit Jack Welch, I like you but you're letting your crazy old man persona take over here
 
2012-10-05 05:11:16 PM

colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.

So, it's just this most recent report that is fake and the fall in unemployment is real up until NOW? Have I got that right?

according to my sources, i believe this may in fact be the case.


The people in your trailer park don't count as sources.
 
2012-10-05 05:11:19 PM

jst3p: theknuckler_33: jst3p: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

That's a tough one. I was on unemployment in 2001. I could have taken a minimum wage job that paid about the same as my benefits but it was only about 60% of my salary. I felt my time was better spent focusing on my job search.

Did you read the link? It would not have effected you... at all.

Of course not I was unemployed in 2001 and not in Ten. DUH!


I just meant that the link describes the requirements for being denied unemployment for declining a job. Under no circumstances described in the link would declining a job with a salary of only 60% of your previous salary would result in you losing your unemployment benefits. That law, as written, probably wouldn't effect anyone.
 
2012-10-05 05:11:31 PM

InspectorZero: If you all really believe unemployment is at 7.8%, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.



Is it a bridge to America's future?
 
2012-10-05 05:12:14 PM
is anyone still taking this absurd headline/Foxtoid seriously?
 
2012-10-05 05:12:23 PM

Lionel Mandrake: bulldg4life: coeyagi: 1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.

I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....

I've got "let me give you some statisticals
1) 30% of hillary supporters for mccain
2) silent majority
3) palin?

------
I do seem to remember the "if there were three parties, would every state get three senators"

I knew I had this somewhere:
[i159.photobucket.com image 670x164]


It's gonna be a Romvember!
1. 30% of people like Sienna skin tones.
2. 1 in 7 voters are 47% umber.
3. Profit.

/I have no idea what I'm doing.
 
2012-10-05 05:12:27 PM

colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.

So, it's just this most recent report that is fake and the fall in unemployment is real up until NOW? Have I got that right?

according to my sources, i believe this may in fact be the case.


Your 'sources'? Okay mr. investigative reporter you. *reaches out and musses your hair*
 
2012-10-05 05:13:09 PM

Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed


supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.
 
2012-10-05 05:13:48 PM

theknuckler_33: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

Wow... I'm sure that will effect 10s of people. I'm sure the new regulations on businesses having to report such situations are going to be very welcome.



During the first 13 weeks of unemployment, an offer of 100 percent of the wages of the most recent work
During the 14th through the 25th week of unemployment, an offer of 75 percent of the wages of the most recent work
During the 26th through the 38th week of unemployment, an offer of 70 percent of the wages of the most recent work
After the 38th week of unemployment, 65 percent of the wages of the most recent work

Like anyone in Tennessee can do that kind of math.
 
2012-10-05 05:13:52 PM

BSABSVR: Bag of Hammers: I guess we can look forward to this story every time unemployment drops a percentage of a point. It's not Fark, it's Troll-lol-lo!

It's the natural progression.

1. Cherry pick statistics that make things seem as terrible as possible.

2. When even the bad statistics look up, claim 1 month isn't a trend.

3. Once there is a trend, complain that the numbers that make up the trend are wrong. After all, I personally know a guy who is still unemployed.


4. Get Drew to greenlight somebodies shiatty blog saying just this.

5. ?????

6. Profit
 
2012-10-05 05:14:12 PM

colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.


And by "they" you mean the independent BLS who isn't staffed by political appointments?

Or do you mean the independent private sector ADP, who's publish their own independent report showing an even better 160k uptick in jobs in September?

Or do you mean the 12 foot tall lizard people who are currently meeting as the Bildeberg Group running all of the the world's media and financial institutions to brainwash the human masses so they can harvest us for food?
 
2012-10-05 05:16:11 PM

o5iiawah: supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


Guns don't kill people.
 
2012-10-05 05:16:19 PM

firefly212: The ADP numbers, which are calculated by payroll analysis instead of sample populations, also show a decrease in unemployment. Don't let reality get in the way of your narrative, GOP, it has never stopped you before.


Not that I'm trying to argue the point you are trying to make, but I don't think ADP reports on "unemployment", they report on payrolls, which have showed over 800K net new jobs over the past 5 months.
 
2012-10-05 05:16:28 PM

theknuckler_33: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

Wow... I'm sure that will effect 10s of people. I'm sure the new regulations on businesses having to report such situations are going to be very welcome.


Businesses are already reporting it. That is why the law is being passed.

Not 10s but 1000s

FTA
"Thousands of Tennesseans will be affected by a new state law that requires residents to take a job offered, or risk losing their unemployment benefits."
 
2012-10-05 05:16:45 PM

Slampig: The unemployed people I know all tend to have something holding them back, like physical issues, drug addiction, or they think they're just too good for whatever job they can get.


If you are reading this and unemployed:

LEARN HOW TO PROGRAM ANDROID APPLICATIONS

You can do it at the library, or with the POS netbook you use to look at porn. It will take two months, then publish your fart app to Google Play. Then update your resume and watch your phone blow up. There is not a single city in the US that doesn't have dozens of android developer jobs open. $65K to start.

There, problem solved.
 
2012-10-05 05:17:36 PM
I would drive dump trucks full of cash to a good JEE engineer/architect with e-com experience who lives in SE Michigan.

I would drive golf carts full of cash to anyone in SE Michigan who is willing to work hard and can *spell* JEE.

I know some industries are worse off than others but software engineers have been scarce since 2010 or so. Back in 2008/2009 I could have my pick of talent.

/I know: Anecdotal evidence isn't
 
2012-10-05 05:19:52 PM

Whiskey Pete: lilbjorn: Hint: The very same thing was said under Reagan, Bush, Carter, and Bush.

You said Bush twice.


We see what you did there...

newsbusters.org

/wait... do we???
 
2012-10-05 05:20:56 PM

Via Infinito: It looks like the difference between the original article and this follow-up is whether they count part time work as employment.

I really don't understand the disconnect. A job is a job. I loved my last part time job. I was definitely employed. I made money, I paid taxes. Why wouldn't that count as employment? And why would "counting the part timers" be seen as fudging the numbers?


Because the sheriff is near and soshulisms and Jebus.
 
2012-10-05 05:21:27 PM

o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


Citations nee--

Oh HAI o5iiawah!
 
2012-10-05 05:22:36 PM

InmanRoshi: colon_pow: theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.

do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.

And by "they" you mean the independent BLS who isn't staffed by political appointments?

Or do you mean the independent private sector ADP, who's publish their own independent report showing an even better 160k uptick in jobs in September?

Or do you mean the 12 foot tall lizard people who are currently meeting as the Bildeberg Group running all of the the world's media and financial institutions to brainwash the human masses so they can harvest us for food?


my sources demand anonymity. i can say no more about that, so please don't ask.
 
2012-10-05 05:23:01 PM

o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


something something Reagan armed the taliban something.
 
2012-10-05 05:23:13 PM

colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.


You are truly history's most Allen West-iest monster. Truly.
 
2012-10-05 05:25:20 PM

tony41454: So they had to get the number down, and they found a way to do it.



how does that tin foil hate feel?
 
2012-10-05 05:25:33 PM

InmanRoshi: "....the Bildeberg Group.... so they can harvest us for food?"


i45.tinypic.com
 
2012-10-05 05:27:30 PM

dinomyar: theknuckler_33: dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link

Wow... I'm sure that will effect 10s of people. I'm sure the new regulations on businesses having to report such situations are going to be very welcome.

Businesses are already reporting it. That is why the law is being passed.

Not 10s but 1000s

FTA
"Thousands of Tennesseans will be affected by a new state law that requires residents to take a job offered, or risk losing their unemployment benefits."


Thousands of people in Tennessee are collecting unemployment benefits, the new law is regarding unemployment benefits therefore thousands of Tennesseans will be affected. Right?

"While there's no data that shows Tennesseans are turning down work just to stay unemployed, employers across the state said it's a problem."

Well, that's settled then.

Did you read the stipulations? Personally, I can't wait for the follow-up of that story showing the 1000s of people caught up in their web of laziness!!!
 
2012-10-05 05:28:44 PM

o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


Remember folks that Obama personally gave weapons to the drug cartels who prior to this were using spitballs and harsh language.
 
2012-10-05 05:28:58 PM

o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


Bush is not up for re-election.F
(Fast and Furiuos was started during that administration.)
 
2012-10-05 05:29:02 PM

o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.



skullkrusher like typing detected
 
2012-10-05 05:29:11 PM

Fear_and_Loathing: propasaurus: So you're saying privatization doesn't work.

I said nothing of the sort, I'm saying neither side cares one way or the other.  The system and language is rigged to compliment the politicians.  People don't matter, just campaigns.


Thank you Fear_and_Loathing, I've seen liberal shills espousing "but the Republicans" - Has nothing to do with party affiliation but winning campaigns, period.

Also not taken into consideration: Hiring for the upcoming holidays. a couple of months of short term employment is mot a fix it's a band-aid.
 
2012-10-05 05:30:08 PM

intelligent comment below: o5iiawah: Tainted1: Interesting, this same website has a story on it about the NRA endorsing Mitt Romney. Funny thing is though, they kind of forgot to mention that Mitt Romney has signed gun control legislature before making it odd that the NRA would pick him. I'm pretty sure that was a minor oversight and Hot Air is in no way biased or spinning data in a biased fashion.

Hot air indeed

supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.


skullkrusher like typing detected


holy crap you're pathetic. Seriously dude, seek help.
 
2012-10-05 05:30:12 PM

downstairs: Fear_and_Loathing: It isn't that they have stopped, the Federal Gov't has just conviently swept them under the carpet.


Yep.  That's why I ignore these numbers completely.
 
Take my situation.  I run a small two person business (well one-and-a-half... my partner pretty much left and got a job, but sticks around and helps a bit and does get some consulting cash for that.)
 
I'm making maybe 1/3 of what I made for 10 years.  I'm not on any government program, but for all intents and purposes I'm unemployed.  Or I should be counted in some stat, as I'm not technically making ends meet.
 
I'm looking for a job in a different industry, but there's no way the government or any third-party polling agency would know this.  I pay taxes, so I'm counted as employed.  But only because I can make some money from whats left of our business.  But I consider that akin to "unemployment benefits" as it amounts to pretty much the same situation... enough money to barely scrape by for the time being.
 
Until you count people like me, I'm not listening to any "employment" numbers.


i hope it's clear to most people in the thread, this is not at all how unemployment is calculated. you don't have to be receiving unemployment benefits in order to be counted; no one is counting all the unemployed people and reaching this 7.8% number, and no one ever has been. there is an extensive phone survey, people are asked if they have jobs, if they're looking for work, if they've given up looking. they take a large enough and representative enough sample to be able to say, broadly, this is what percentage of the workforce is looking for work but is not working. right now, 78 out of every 1000 workers are not employed but are looking for work.

people who don't believe in statistics, who don't know anything about the past, and are too lazy to learn about the methods behind the information they consume will always be susceptible to persuasion by others who may not have their best interests in mind. so, we get people like downstairs. this is the way he wants it. well, he gets it. i don't like it any more than you men.

/eventually Cool Hand Luke will just take over every post.
 
2012-10-05 05:30:17 PM

BSABSVR: o5iiawah: supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.

Guns don't kill people.



Unless the gun was supplied by a Demorat!
 
2012-10-05 05:30:36 PM

MeinRS6: These numbers will have the ever-livin'-shiat revised out of them in Nov.

The lies from the Obama admin pile up so high so fast, you need a helicopter to stay above it.


And if anyone knows about the troubles of talking so much shiat they about drown in it, it would be MeinRS6. Serious respect that he can keep such retarded views up.
 
2012-10-05 05:31:22 PM

BSABSVR: o5iiawah: supporting an automatic weapons ban is more gun friendly than a president who armed mexican drug cartels, enabling them to kill 2 americans and hundreds of mexicans.

Guns don't kill people.


Mexican drug dealers armed with American government supplied guns kill people. But what does this have to do with the unemployment rate?
 
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