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(Hot Air)   You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs   (hotair.com) divider line 594
    More: Followup, CNBC, Chris Cuomo, warehousing, bright spot, Bureau of Labor Statistics  
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9115 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:00 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 04:22:58 PM  
And once again, Allen West has become the unofficial voice of the Republican Party, and wild conspiracy theories have become the common currency.
 
2012-10-05 04:23:46 PM  
Hot air indeed
 
2012-10-05 04:24:15 PM  

paygun: how much more recovery can we take


Well, we haven't reached food riots yet.
 
2012-10-05 04:25:48 PM  
 
2012-10-05 04:26:19 PM  

jst3p: theknuckler_33: bulldg4life: coeyagi: 1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.

I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....

I've got "let me give you some statisticals
1) 30% of hillary supporters for mccain
2) silent majority
3) palin?

------
I do seem to remember the "if there were three parties, would every state get three senators"

I think it was '7 out of 10 undecideds'?

[www.madmann.com image 750x600]


Ach! I knew it was 'undecideds', I just forgot the statistical.
 
2012-10-05 04:27:05 PM  

BSABSVR: It was probably due to some minority somewhere amirite?


That's racist. Just because Obama is clearly directly to blame for this, that's no reason to bring up the nature of his parentage!
 
2012-10-05 04:28:30 PM  

BSABSVR: It was probably due to some minority somewhere amirite?


You're probably correct. They stole the main page linker for the followups

 
2012-10-05 04:29:25 PM  

Fear_and_Loathing: Yeah that is the lie, if you run out of benefits, you no longer are looking.  Kind of an odd jump in logic.  My state has the second highest unemployment in the Nation at 10.7 percent statewide.  Job fairs routinely bring in 4000 or more people to look in a single day.  Many are officially not lo9oking for work.  It isn't that they have stopped, the Federal Gov't has just conviently swept them under the carpet.  The Gov't has given up on them, so they cease to exist, they have not given up on looking for jobs.
 
The state EDC gave a sweetheart deal to a sports star to move his company and it was tied to creating 400 jobs.  After 2 years, he had filled 200 jobs almost all from people he moved into the state from other states.  Then he aquired a company in Maryland with 400 employees.  This April he went bankrupt, laid off the 200 transients and the 400 in another state. But that is considered job creation.
 
We got a lot of stimulus money, we have some very nice roads now.  The money went to the largest businesses in the state.  They hired few workers and those they hired were temp jobs.  But the companies made a healthy profit.  Job creation almost nil.  But as I said, some nice back roads are very nice now.
 
The state now wants to have a fullfledged Casino.  Job creation, as long as the Indians don't own it.  I live very close to the two largest Casinos in the Western Hemisphere.  Where did most of the workforce come from?  Casino states.  Not local people.  Casinos are smart, they want people who know the business, have the skills and know the grind.  They don't want to train 1000's of workers.  They are a business.  Shipping in a whole workforce from out of state is not job creation.
 
My own employer got state grants that included hiring goals.  They could not make the hiring goals.  So they laid off expensive employees so they could hire to meet the goals.  Kind of like the big Red Sox trade this year to open up payroll.  They hired a lot of people wit ...


So..... you're saying that trickle-down economics doesn't work?
 
2012-10-05 04:29:34 PM  
so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.
 
2012-10-05 04:29:37 PM  

vegasj: I love it Drew

Main page = Jobless rate is down to 7.8% Romney still to be unemployed next month (spiffy)

hidden over on the polictics tab = You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs (followup)


Hard to believe the actual news is on the main page and the right-wing derp is only on the politics tab. What is this world coming to?
 
2012-10-05 04:30:24 PM  

theknuckler_33: Hard to believe the actual news is on the main page and the right-wing derp is only on the politics tab. What is this world coming to?


I know uhn...

but this is on the main page now. So what now biatches?

LoL!

 
2012-10-05 04:30:32 PM  

tony41454: No incumbent has ever been reelected with the unemployment rate over 8%. So they had to get the number down, and they found a way to do it. You simply lower the number of people looking. So what we're being told is that thanks to a measly 114,000 jobs, the unemployment rate for Sept. fell from 8.3 to 7.8. That's a full half a percentage point. No way. Also, 1.1 million people have disappeared from the labor force during the past year. How does that happen? The government erases them, just assumes those people aren't looking. So they just subtract that many jobs, therefore the unemployment rate goes down.

And those 114,000 jobs? 114,000 is the number of people that can fit in a large college stadium. We have 310 million people, 100 million working age adults, and we barely created 2,000 jobs per state for 50 states (or 57, depending on who you're talking to), yet they reduce the unemployment rate by half a point? Riiiiight.

The administration manipulated these numbers just so Obama could say the rate is below 8%, that's the only reason.


As long as it makes you feel better that you hate good news and reality. So were you complaining about the administration skewing the numbers in 2004 also?
 
2012-10-05 04:31:28 PM  
Is there anybody out there who hasn't known this for over a decade?
 
2012-10-05 04:32:25 PM  

Fear_and_Loathing: impaler: Didn't I already post this?

Yes you did, but the gains do not make a substantive difference to the number that lost jobs.  One job is a gain, but the layoffs are still happening and the growth is painfully slow.  People still want work and the dumping of jobs has not been met by the paltry addition of jobs.


You do realize that the job 'gains' are NET job gains over the previous month, right?
 
2012-10-05 04:33:02 PM  
Oh noes, I do/don't have jobz because the president.

Jackasses.
 
2012-10-05 04:33:39 PM  

vegasj: theknuckler_33: Hard to believe the actual news is on the main page and the right-wing derp is only on the politics tab. What is this world coming to?

I know uhn...

but this is on the main page now. So what now biatches?

LoL!


You should apologize for your snark, I suppose.
 
2012-10-05 04:33:43 PM  

downstairs: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Your claim is that you are employed but not REALLY employed because you don't make as much money as you would like?

Hell, if that's the metric, the employment percentage rate of the WORLD is microscopic.


Read my second post.  I'm not bitter here, this has nothing to do with what I "want".  I'm saying I'm worth $X and making <$X.  That's not good for the economy.  Hell, take me out of the equation if you have a problem with me making this personal.  Lots of people are in my situation.


If you are currently only able to make $X then you are only worth $X, not some magical number you just made up because it makes you feel better.
 
2012-10-05 04:33:58 PM  

HST's Dead Carcass: I know one that was cut off from unemployment and has been clinging on to everything he owns. He attributes to the number of people not on unemployment.

Here's my town compared to statewide. Unemployment is dropping for the state because people were kicked off unemployment after an internal audit, but Colorado Springs is still rising.

Our town is at 9.8%, and at least 50% of that is IT/Tech jobs. Additionally, you can see by the red line for Colorado, exactly when they got the results of the audit, because the line goes from 9.3% to 7.7%... in an effort to make the national average look better. That many jobs weren't found, they just ended Unemployment for thousands of people over a 2 month period.


Whether or not you collect unemployment benefits has absolutely no relationship to whether or not you are counted as unemployed. The unemployment rate is calculated from citizen an employment surveys.
 
2012-10-05 04:34:24 PM  
Oh good. Main paged. If there's anything this thread is lacking it's a big old heaping cup of "I don't follow or particularly care about politics, but I'm going to vote for whichever candidate reminds me more of the biggest fart I let loose the day before the election. Also chemtrails."
 
2012-10-05 04:34:25 PM  

colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.


So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?
 
2012-10-05 04:36:24 PM  

BoxOfBees: Oh noes, I do/don't have jobz because the president.

Jackasses.


I just want him to pull th elever that magically makes gas $1 a gallon.
 
2012-10-05 04:36:39 PM  

InmanRoshi: Former Bush administration spokesman Tony Fratto took to Twitter to say: "Stop with the dumb conspiracy theories. Good grief."


They don't recognize or want to face that lying incessantly, forcefully, confidentially and indignantly is a primary tactic of the Republican presidential campaign. Polls lie, job numbers lie, the media they own is aligned against them; it appears a more educated segment is finally backing away from the ideological train wreck.
 
2012-10-05 04:36:45 PM  

vegasj: theknuckler_33: Hard to believe the actual news is on the main page and the right-wing derp is only on the politics tab. What is this world coming to?

I know uhn...

but this is on the main page now. So what now biatches?


Now we all laugh at you for your idiotic whining about something that wasn't even accurate to begin with.

Cry more.
 
2012-10-05 04:36:50 PM  
So......we're saying the tax cuts for the rich aren't working?....
 
2012-10-05 04:37:00 PM  
So unemployment numbers are WRONG when they're LOW under a Democrat, huh?
But when they're HIGHER, they're okay to plaster all over the news and totally valid for Republican mud slinging propaganda?

i91.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-05 04:37:24 PM  

tony41454: So what we're being told is that thanks to a measly 114,000 jobs, the unemployment rate for Sept. fell from 8.3 to 7.8.


I'm just going to re-post what I said in the other thread:

Link

The 114,000 number comes from a survey of businesses, and the 7.8% comes from a survey of households. They don't move hand-in-hand, and there are often discrepancies. The biggest source of discrepancy, of course, comes from self-employed individuals and people working on an ad hoc basis (babysitters, cleaning ladies, delivery people, etc). Farm workers are also not counted in the survey of businesses, but they still comprise something like 1% of the workforce. The establishment survey (survey of businesses) also are often adjusted after the due date because of surveys that are returned late -- for example the August data was adjusted upwards by 46,000, and the July data by 40,000 in the most recent release. Lastly, there's the fundamental problem with any survey -- that the people that you surveyed are slightly out of sync with the population (or the business world) as a whole. That last bit of statistical error would hit the household survey and the establishment survey in different ways because of pure randomness.
 
2012-10-05 04:38:18 PM  

InspectorZero: If you all really believe unemployment is at 7.8%, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.



Based on the way we calculate "unemployment", it certainly is 7.8 %

Other countries use better methods of calculation-- European countries in particular -- so it makes their unemployment look higher than ours.

Then we gloat and say "look, socialism doesn't work!!"

So if you're a right winger and want to gloat about socialism not working, you'd better accept the 7.8% number, or we might switch to a different method of calculation and suddenly we won't look any better than Socialist Europe.
 
2012-10-05 04:38:29 PM  

InmanRoshi: Sane Republicans (once again cringe) with embarrassment.

"The numbers are put together by trained professionals and in a process that keeps politicians from interfering," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and a chief economic adviser to former President George W. Bush. "Any sort of suggestion to the contrary is wrong."

Former Bush administration spokesman Tony Fratto took to Twitter to say: "Stop with the dumb conspiracy theories. Good grief."


That's interesting. That same guy put out a tweet that the right-wingers are holding up as evidence of economists calling the BLS report into question. Link
 
2012-10-05 04:38:57 PM  

All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?


they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.
 
2012-10-05 04:41:18 PM  
I guess we can look forward to this story every time unemployment drops a percentage of a point. It's not Fark, it's Troll-lol-lo!


I'd also like to welcome the dozens of new posters and alt account that have re-surfaced in the hours after the debate last Wednesday, Fark Independent 101st Fighting Keyboardist are GO!
 
2012-10-05 04:41:59 PM  

OrygunFarker: [i1151.photobucket.com image 511x327]


Since when? Since you're reference is Fox news.. O_o
 
2012-10-05 04:42:26 PM  

downstairs: I'm looking for a job in a different industry, but there's no way the government or any third-party polling agency would know this.  I pay taxes, so I'm counted as employed.  But only because I can make some money from whats left of our business.  But I consider that akin to "unemployment benefits" as it amounts to pretty much the same situation... enough money to barely scrape by for the time being.
 
Until you count people like me, I'm not listening to any "employment" numbers.


You are counted in the "under-employed" numbers. Well, assuming that there's people like you who answered phone surveys which is pretty much guaranteed.
 
2012-10-05 04:44:24 PM  
low unemployment my arse. there is a town a few miles from where i live with hundreds and hundreds of illegal brown people day laborers with nothing to do and no where to go. the longer this goes on the fewer non brown people go there to shop and what not. they are good people, they want to work, but there is nothing for them.
 
2012-10-05 04:44:43 PM  

Fear_and_Loathing: Yeah that is the lie, if you run out of benefits, you no longer are looking.  Kind of an odd jump in logic.


No, the lie is what you just said. Unemployment is not measured by unemployment benefits, at all.

Some information for you.

Some more.

Now truth be told we *should* be using U6, but we should NOT be using it as the GOP wishes to use it, i.e. to make the democrats look bad and win an election before going back to the old system as part of a partisan hack-job for no damn reason.

Also, U3 and U6 have BOTH been falling, deal with it.

i75.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-05 04:45:45 PM  
Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link
 
2012-10-05 04:46:19 PM  

colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.


It almost looks like you typed that with belief, but go ahead if that makes you feel better.

I mean if they can tweek it that much why not do it a couple of months earlier and inch it down to 6%? Really, it's just a rhetorical question because you seem smart enough to know and it pains you to have to push this BS talking point but I like your commitment to the cause.
 
2012-10-05 04:46:56 PM  
I don't understand the claim that "unemployment isn't going down, people are just giving up looking for a job."

Why would someone just give up looking for a job? Would being homeless be more preferential to being unemployed but looking for work?

The unemployment rate could be 1%, and the right-wingers would sqawk that it only means we have millions of people are really out of work but just aren't looking.
 
2012-10-05 04:47:15 PM  

HST's Dead Carcass: I know one that was cut off from unemployment and has been clinging on to everything he owns. He attributes to the number of people not on unemployment.

Here's my town compared to statewide. Unemployment is dropping for the state because people were kicked off unemployment after an internal audit, but Colorado Springs is still rising.

Our town is at 9.8%, and at least 50% of that is IT/Tech jobs. Additionally, you can see by the red line for Colorado, exactly when they got the results of the audit, because the line goes from 9.3% to 7.7%... in an effort to make the national average look better. That many jobs weren't found, they just ended Unemployment for thousands of people over a 2 month period.


Let's see, Colorado Springs, which basically exists at the behest of government contracts and bases, has a number of teabaggers whining about government cutting jobs. Sounds like you need to get yourselves some bootstraps, chief.
 
2012-10-05 04:48:14 PM  

dinomyar: Tennessee is trying to change the laws to remove unemployment benefits from people refusing to take a job, so long as that job pays a specific percentage of your last salary relative to how long you have been unemployed.

Link


That's a tough one. I was on unemployment in 2001. I could have taken a minimum wage job that paid about the same as my benefits but it was only about 60% of my salary. I felt my time was better spent focusing on my job search.
 
2012-10-05 04:49:22 PM  

immafattie: Would being homeless be more preferential to being unemployed but looking for work?


According to Romney, that would be a 'yes' for 47% of Americans.
 
2012-10-05 04:49:27 PM  
My wife and I both quit our professional jobs this spring, moved across the country, and found new jobs, both making significantly more money than we did before. My wife was hired for 4 separate jobs this summer. 3 of them sucked, and so she looked for others. In the end, she found one she likes.

The unemployed people I know all tend to have something holding them back, like physical issues, drug addiction, or they think they're just too good for whatever job they can get. Sure, they also can't finish college, but they're too smart for that too. I have to think that a lot of the unemployed out there are far from being the best of the best. If people are honest with themselves, and willing to make some changes, there are plenty of jobs to be had.
 
2012-10-05 04:49:30 PM  

immafattie: I don't understand the claim that "unemployment isn't going down, people are just giving up looking for a job."

Why would someone just give up looking for a job? Would being homeless be more preferential to being unemployed but looking for work?


For some options like "Move back in with mom and dad so I can finish my degree" are preferable.
 
2012-10-05 04:50:02 PM  
The government has been doing that since St. Reagan. Nothing to see here.
 
2012-10-05 04:51:21 PM  

colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.


Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.
 
2012-10-05 04:52:02 PM  

All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

It almost looks like you typed that with belief, but go ahead if that makes you feel better.

I mean if they can tweek it that much why not do it a couple of months earlier and inch it down to 6%? Really, it's just a rhetorical question because you seem smart enough to know and it pains you to have to push this BS talking point but I like your commitment to the cause.


just thinking outside the box. if they can juice the numbers, they would be fools not to do so.
 
2012-10-05 04:52:24 PM  

KrispyKritter: low unemployment my arse. there is a town a few miles from where i live with hundreds and hundreds of illegal brown people day laborers with nothing to do and no where to go. the longer this goes on the fewer non brown people go there to shop and what not. they are good people, they want to work, but there is nothing for them.


Pretty sure they don't survey illegals, at least not on purpose. However, there's a great method for lowering their unemployment, called "shipping them back where they came from".

The cool thing is that all of this whining by Republicans will convince undecideds. They'll say "I have no idea if 7.8% is a good number or not, but the Republicans are saying the Democrats are cheating, so it must be great!"
 
2012-10-05 04:52:37 PM  
Ok, simple question. This BLS report shows the unadjusted unemployment rate. Didn't they always make seasonabl adjustments to the rate in the past? If that's the case, changing how it's reported could be considered "skewing" the results.
 
2012-10-05 04:53:09 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: [pbs.twimg.com image 580x415]

[i.imgur.com image 380x179]


Its too bad that graph doesn't has numbers, or facts because if it did, it would say that the job numbers under Obama are roughly 60,000-130,000 per month and when the economy needs roughly 70-90,000 adds per month just to replace retiring workers, we have what is essentially a stagnant recovery. Draw a line from the 6-month part of Obama's term, after the stimulus bucks ran out and it is flat.
 
2012-10-05 04:53:36 PM  

theknuckler_33: colon_pow: All2morrowsparTs: colon_pow: so the administration has ways of juicing the numbers. it's to be expected. politics is hardball.

So why didn't they present better numbers if they were able to juice the numbers?

they didn't want to get greedy. they only need the number to go under 8. next month expect a half point drop. minimum.

Makes you wonder why they bothered to make the rate go UP in May and July.


do i have to explain everything to you? they were hoping the numbers would fall legitimately. this is their plan b.

yeeesh.
 
2012-10-05 04:53:41 PM  

2 Replies: OrygunFarker: [i1151.photobucket.com image 511x327]

Since when? Since you're reference is Fox news.. O_o


Thatsthejoke.jpg
 
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