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(Hot Air)   You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs   (hotair.com) divider line 594
    More: Followup, CNBC, Chris Cuomo, warehousing, bright spot, Bureau of Labor Statistics  
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9115 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:00 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 03:42:43 PM  
U-3, U-6. Whatever. The long-term trend is that all of the numbers are getting better. U-1 through U-6 are, by-and-large, decreasing as a trend. Sure they tick up here and there. But the overall trend-line is downward.

You can certainly pick any one of those numbers, and point to just the magnitude, to suit your narrative. But if you were to put the graph up of that measure you'd probably then have to talk about how it's in general decline.
 
2012-10-05 03:42:50 PM  

coeyagi: 1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.


I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....

I've got "let me give you some statisticals
1) 30% of hillary supporters for mccain
2) silent majority
3) palin?

------
I do seem to remember the "if there were three parties, would every state get three senators"
 
2012-10-05 03:43:26 PM  

Jim_Callahan: It's almost like there are several different metrics for unemployment, and if you lambast the one that doesn't include the people whose benefits have run out you're just going to look like a farking moron because we also track the number that does include those people and that number's going down too.


Anyway - the Boomers are retiring, and large numbers of people are going to be "dropping out" of the workforce in the next few years - nothing to do with anybody's benefits running out.
 
2012-10-05 03:43:42 PM  

Biological Ali: Nabb1: Oh, I understand it just fine. I just don't care to play. I'm not going to blindly pull the lever for a Republican or Democrat because I'm conditioned to accept that. I've voted for Republicans, Democrats, Reform Party, Libertarians, and I think I once voted Green for some office or another. I skipped 2000, voted Badnarik '04, Ron Paul as a third party candidate in '08 (he was on the ballot in Louisiana on the "Tax Reform Party" ticket or something) and will vote for Gary Johnson this time around. I know it won't affect the outcome. Neither would changing my vote to Obama or Romney.

The problem with voting third party in electoral systems such as the one in the US is that you're actually raising the probability (relative to a scenario where you voted sensibly) of the least desirable plausible option being elected. So in that sense you're actually doing worse than Dilbert - not only does your vote accomplish literally nothing positive, but it carries with it a negative expected return, with its magnitude dependent on how likely the least desirable plausible option being elected was to begin with.

You can talk up the third party's platforms to try and make them more popular, you can try to canvas for them and raise their profile at the grassroots level, that stuff is fine; you might actually make some small difference that way. But there is literally no sensible reason to actually vote for a party that you know will lose some particular election.


I don't vote straight ticket. As I look down the ballot, I select each candidate based on which of the available choices most matches my political views. I will say that as the races become more local, my selection may factor in likelihood of winning, especially for city council or mayor, but at the level of President - and we all know Romney will carry Louisiana handily - I simply vote according to my conscience.
 
2012-10-05 03:44:26 PM  

HST's Dead Carcass: He attributes to the number of people not on unemployment.


And unless he stopped looking for work, he would still be counted as "unemployed" in the Current Population Survey.

There's always a bunch of people who makes this mistake every month after the unemployment report comes out, so don't feel bad.
 
2012-10-05 03:44:30 PM  
I bet the math they use will be just fine if Romney gets elected.
 
2012-10-05 03:44:41 PM  
Anyone who has had to look for a job knows the Summer is one of the worst times. Everyone's on vacation at different times, there's the 4th and then whatever else is going on.

It's a crappy time to be looking. It's not as bad as perhaps Thanksgiving to Christmas, but it sucks pretty hard.
 
2012-10-05 03:44:50 PM  
Somebody please explain this to me.

According to the right, Obama is an incompetent empty suit and this was demonstrated in the debates.
Also according to the right, Obama is a manipulative mastermind that has his insidious tendrils in every government bureau and department.

How does this make sense?
I've only ever seen this combination of features in Saturday morning cartoon villains like Skeletor and Snidely Whiplash.
 
2012-10-05 03:45:49 PM  

trippdogg: I was recently on a hiring committe, and based on the interviews we did, I would estimate unemployment at 2%, max. It quickly became clear that almost everyone with any type of marketable skills is already employed. What we saw for the most part were a bunch of social rejects that, if they showed up to work at all, would break more than they fixed and cause more problems than they solved.


Among people with a Bachlors or higher we are at "normal" unemployment, 4.1% 

Link
 
2012-10-05 03:46:21 PM  

GhostFish: How does this make sense?


Not a requirement for the right.
 
2012-10-05 03:46:35 PM  

OrygunFarker: [i1151.photobucket.com image 511x327]


It's Fox News. Facts violate their ideology, so even something typically as black and white as a graph have to be "unfacted" a bit.
 
2012-10-05 03:47:30 PM  

GhostFish: Somebody please explain this to me.


GhostFish: How does this make sense?


You want an explanation for that?

Well, let's go with "lying doesn't matter as long as they win the presidency"
 
2012-10-05 03:48:08 PM  

thurstonxhowell: Biological Ali: the only statement being made by people voting third party in the US (or other places with similar electoral systems) would be "I don't understand game theory."

I don't know what game theory has to do with the fact that my vote in my definitely not going to swing state doesn't stand a chance of changing anything. I'll vote for whoever the hell I feel like voting for.

I was gonna vote Libertarian, but the Libertarians I know managed to talk me out of it. Now I'm thinking Vermin Supreme. Or maybe Green. Depends how lulzy I'm feeling that day.


What you're essentially saying though is, you live in a place where there's such a high probability of the election going one particular way that you don't even have to bother voting, and therefore you're going to do something that's the equivalent of not voting in that race. That's fair enough, but that would just bring you back to a Dilbert-level scenario where you're merely accomplishing nothing (though strictly speaking, there still would be a negative expected return; it would just be much smaller than if you were in a swing state).
 
2012-10-05 03:48:59 PM  

MeinRS6: These numbers will have the ever-livin'-shiat revised out of them in Nov.

The lies from the Obama admin pile up so high so fast, you need a helicopter to stay above it.


THe BLS is not part of the Administration you idiot. If they had the ability to lie why wouldn't they say Unemployment is at 6%, last month?
 
2012-10-05 03:49:14 PM  

GhostFish: Noam Chimpsky: Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.

These business folk make business decisions based on hopes and dreams and not factual data like trends in polls?

They don't sound like very good business folk.


It's a gamble, without question, but it pays off nicely if you get out ahead of the competition before an economic boom. I'd say it's a good gamble because the damage you'll incur by an Obama victory is less than the benefit incurred by a Romney victory since downsizing and firing is relatively painless after an Obama victory if that should happen. You are basically gambling a few months worth of capital for a few years worth of profits by jumping the gun.
 
2012-10-05 03:50:23 PM  
I don't typically go to HotAir for an analysis of anything reality-based.
 
2012-10-05 03:50:54 PM  

Biological Ali: there is literally no sensible reason to actually vote for a party that you know will lose some particular election.


I'm in the booth anyway so that I can vote in House, Senate, and state elections. Since I'm in there, I might as well vote for President. My vote would be more valuable in raising the profile of a third party than it would be to either major party, or it would at least make me smile a bit to write-in Vermin Supreme.

Obama carried my state by more than 20 points in 2008 and he's projected to do it again. Voting for a major party serves no purpose for me. Voting for a third party likely serves no purpose, either, but it's what I'm gonna do.

Swing state voters, please ignore the above. Vote for the candidate who might win that you dislike the least.
 
2012-10-05 03:51:21 PM  

GhostFish: Somebody please explain this to me.

According to the right, Obama is an incompetent empty suit and this was demonstrated in the debates.
Also according to the right, Obama is a manipulative mastermind that has his insidious tendrils in every government bureau and department.

How does this make sense?
I've only ever seen this combination of features in Saturday morning cartoon villains like Skeletor and Snidely Whiplash.


See, if he was a compentent evil masterming the uneployment rate woulde reported as 6% but since he is incompetant he only reports 7.8%.
 
2012-10-05 03:51:34 PM  
Just wait until WND notices that this unemployment report is full of ARABIC NUMERALS.
 
2012-10-05 03:53:12 PM  

bulldg4life: I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....


1 in 7 undecided.
 
2012-10-05 03:53:41 PM  

Biological Ali: What you're essentially saying though is, you live in a place where there's such a high probability of the election going one particular way that you don't even have to bother voting, and therefore you're going to do something that's the equivalent of not voting in that race. That's fair enough, but that would just bring you back to a Dilbert-level scenario where you're merely accomplishing nothing (though strictly speaking, there still would be a negative expected return; it would just be much smaller than if you were in a swing state).


I still don't see how your voting for Obromney is any more meaningful than voting for a third party. I fully understand the concept you are expressing, but from a practical matter, I don't see the benefit in changing my one, largely ineffective vote for a presidential candidate from a third party to one of the two major parties. I don't live in a swing state, so really, my voting for Obama (since Romney is projected to win Louisiana) is no more or less influential in the outcome than voting for Gary Johnson.
 
2012-10-05 03:54:06 PM  

coeyagi: intelligent comment below: The economy is finally starting to show signs of improvement and conservative trolls are OUTRAGED.

/Boy do they love America

It's inconceivable, since Rush Limbaugh says Obama hates America, that anything under his Muslimpremacy would ever improve for America.



I haven't seen this much outrage from the right since 0bama announced the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
 
2012-10-05 03:54:46 PM  

GhostFish: Somebody please explain this to me.

According to the right, Obama is an incompetent empty suit and this was demonstrated in the debates.
Also according to the right, Obama is a manipulative mastermind that has his insidious tendrils in every government bureau and department.


He's also a Nazi Marxist Muslim [racist] Christian Pacifist Warmonger.

HE IS EVERYTHING THEY WANT HIM TO BE.

Why do you think they hate him even more when he does something they approve of? It ruins their little bullshiat narrative.

Getting Bin Laden just made them even more pissed, because he was taunting them by doing what he said he would do.
 
2012-10-05 03:57:46 PM  

indylaw: tomWright: It could be legitimate, it could be politically shaded. The timing is suspicious

In other words, it's suspicious because it doesn't favor your narrative.


Indeed. A slow, but stead downward trend in the unemployment rate that has been going on for about two years has *gasp* continued. Very suspicious.
 
2012-10-05 03:58:44 PM  
Conservatives: No good news allowed!

If it is good news, it CAN'T be true. Conservatives are so busy counting on the United States to collapse, they just HATE that people might be doing better.

farking bunch of un-American pigs.
 
2012-10-05 03:58:45 PM  

GhostFish: Somebody please explain this to me.

According to the right, Obama is an incompetent empty suit and this was demonstrated in the debates.
Also according to the right, Obama is a manipulative mastermind that has his insidious tendrils in every government bureau and department.

How does this make sense?
I've only ever seen this combination of features in Saturday morning cartoon villains like Skeletor and Snidely Whiplash.


I would have gone with Cobra Commander, but still... very apt!
 
2012-10-05 03:59:59 PM  
A nice little war with Iran will get those unemployment numbers down (in the M-I-C, elsewhere, not so much)

/toss a few bombs at Tel Aviv for good measure.
 
2012-10-05 04:00:34 PM  

rufus-t-firefly: GhostFish: Somebody please explain this to me.

According to the right, Obama is an incompetent empty suit and this was demonstrated in the debates.
Also according to the right, Obama is a manipulative mastermind that has his insidious tendrils in every government bureau and department.

He's also a Nazi Marxist Muslim [racist] Christian Pacifist Warmonger.

HE IS EVERYTHING THEY WANT HIM TO BE.

Why do you think they hate him even more when he does something they approve of? It ruins their little bullshiat narrative.

Getting Bin Laden just made them even more pissed, because he was taunting them by doing what he said he would do.


Take a little walk to the edge of town Go across the tracks Where the viaduct looms, like a bird of doom As it shifts and cracks Where secrets lie in the border fires, in the humming wires Hey man, you know you're never coming back Past the square, past the bridge, past the mills, past the stacks On a gathering storm comes a tall handsome man In a dusty black coat with a red right hand
He'll wrap you in his arms, tell you that you've been a good boy He'll rekindle all the dreams it took you a lifetime to destroy He'll reach deep into the hole, heal your shrinking soul But there won't be a single thing That you can do. He's a god, he's a man, he's a ghost, he's a guru They're whispering his name through this disappearing land But hidden in his coat is a red right hand
You ain't got no money? He'll get you some You ain't got no car? He'll get you one You ain't have no self-respect, you feel like an insect Well don't you worry buddy, cause here he comes Through the ghettos and the barrio and the bowery and the slum A shadow is cast wherever he stands Stacks of green paper in his red right hand
You'll see him in your nightmares, you'll see him in your dreams He'll appear out of nowhere but he ain't what he seems You'll see him in your head, on the TV screen And hey buddy, I'm warning you to turn it off He's a ghost, he's a god, he's a man, he's a guru You're one microscopic cog in his catastrophic plan Designed and directed by his red right hand

Nick Cave
 
2012-10-05 04:00:50 PM  

bulldg4life: coeyagi: 1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.

I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....

I've got "let me give you some statisticals
1) 30% of hillary supporters for mccain
2) silent majority
3) palin?

------
I do seem to remember the "if there were three parties, would every state get three senators"


I think it was '7 out of 10 undecideds'?
 
2012-10-05 04:00:56 PM  
What are they saying over at unskewedemploymentreports.com?
 
2012-10-05 04:01:34 PM  
how much more recovery can we take
 
2012-10-05 04:01:48 PM  

wooden_badger: /toss a few bombs at Tel Aviv for good measure.



How about at your house instead?
 
2012-10-05 04:03:06 PM  

Nabb1: I don't vote straight ticket. As I look down the ballot, I select each candidate based on which of the available choices most matches my political views. I will say that as the races become more local, my selection may factor in likelihood of winning, especially for city council or mayor, but at the level of President - and we all know Romney will carry Louisiana handily - I simply vote according to my conscience.


Sure, but at that point you might as well write in your own name - because after all, who could be closer to your conscience regarding the issues than yourself? And, of course, you'd have the same probability of carrying the state too.

The other thing to consider, though, is the popular vote. Not that it has any legal bearing in the US, but there is a sense of a "mandate" based on popular vote margins. Since the important number there is the difference between the two main opposition parties, voting for one of them could chip away at the mandate of the least favourable of the two (should they win), or add to the mandate of their opponents (should they lose).
 
2012-10-05 04:03:16 PM  
Thanks to all of our abortion bills we created once we took over the House in 2010... and us rejecting all of the job bills the President wanted, the unemployment rate finally fell below 8%. I'm so glad that I directly helped with the declining of the unemployment rate, I'm crying from the excitement
www.addictinginfo.org
 
2012-10-05 04:03:32 PM  

paygun: how much more recovery can we take


Yeah, this mechanic is too slow - let's give the keys back to the guys that wrecked the car to begin with!
 
2012-10-05 04:04:25 PM  

paygun: how much more recovery can we take


Pretty soon, evil Obama is going to have all those people forced to work, instead sucking on the government teat. What a MONSTER.
 
2012-10-05 04:05:22 PM  

thurstonxhowell: I was gonna vote Libertarian, but the Libertarians I know managed to talk me out of it. Now I'm thinking Vermin Supreme. Or maybe Green. Depends how lulzy I'm feeling that day.


You can't vote for a Taco Bell entre.
 
2012-10-05 04:07:20 PM  

foo monkey: What are they saying over at unskewedemploymentreports.com?


i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-05 04:09:36 PM  

GameSprocket: jst3p: HST's Dead Carcass: I know one that was cut off from unemployment and has been clinging on to everything he owns. He attributes to the number of people not on unemployment.

Here's my town compared to statewide. Unemployment is dropping for the state because people were kicked off unemployment after an internal audit, but Colorado Springs is still rising.

Our town is at 9.8%, and at least 50% of that is IT/Tech jobs. Additionally, you can see by the red line for Colorado, exactly when they got the results of the audit, because the line goes from 9.3% to 7.7%... in an effort to make the national average look better. That many jobs weren't found, they just ended Unemployment for thousands of people over a 2 month period.

I call bullshiat.

Yeah! Hell, they should come to the Twin Cities. We have about a 2-3% unemployment for programmers/IT. Companies are having a real hard time finding people to hire.


Give CTG a call, they have some guys down in Rochester that I'm sure would be happy to move north.
 
2012-10-05 04:11:12 PM  

thurstonxhowell: I'm in the booth anyway so that I can vote in House, Senate, and state elections. Since I'm in there, I might as well vote for President. My vote would be more valuable in raising the profile of a third party than it would be to either major party, or it would at least make me smile a bit to write-in Vermin Supreme.

Obama carried my state by more than 20 points in 2008 and he's projected to do it again. Voting for a major party serves no purpose for me. Voting for a third party likely serves no purpose, either, but it's what I'm gonna do.


As I mentioned in my response to Nabb1, there's also the national popular vote to consider. True, this kind of "mandate" may have no legal bearing in the US, but the same applies to the "profile" of a third party loser. The former, however, may be relevant (due to various political reasons) to the ease with which the winning party can execute its national agenda.
 
2012-10-05 04:13:24 PM  

theknuckler_33: bulldg4life: coeyagi: 1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.

I'm kinda upset because, as I sit here, I can't remember what #3 was either....

I've got "let me give you some statisticals
1) 30% of hillary supporters for mccain
2) silent majority
3) palin?

------
I do seem to remember the "if there were three parties, would every state get three senators"

I think it was '7 out of 10 undecideds'?


www.madmann.com
 
2012-10-05 04:14:13 PM  
www.verminsupreme.com
 
2012-10-05 04:14:14 PM  
I love it Drew

Main page = Jobless rate is down to 7.8% Romney still to be unemployed next month (spiffy)

hidden over on the polictics tab = You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs (followup)
 
2012-10-05 04:16:14 PM  

impaler: Didn't I already post this?


Yes you did, but the gains do not make a substantive difference to the number that lost jobs.  One job is a gain, but the layoffs are still happening and the growth is painfully slow.  People still want work and the dumping of jobs has not been met by the paltry addition of jobs.
 
2012-10-05 04:17:08 PM  

vegasj: I love it Drew

Main page = Jobless rate is down to 7.8% Romney still to be unemployed next month (spiffy)

hidden over on the polictics tab = You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs (followup)



That's because this link is from Hot Air, which just like your head, is full of hot air
 
2012-10-05 04:17:34 PM  
No incumbent has ever been reelected with the unemployment rate over 8%. So they had to get the number down, and they found a way to do it. You simply lower the number of people looking. So what we're being told is that thanks to a measly 114,000 jobs, the unemployment rate for Sept. fell from 8.3 to 7.8. That's a full half a percentage point. No way. Also, 1.1 million people have disappeared from the labor force during the past year. How does that happen? The government erases them, just assumes those people aren't looking. So they just subtract that many jobs, therefore the unemployment rate goes down.

And those 114,000 jobs? 114,000 is the number of people that can fit in a large college stadium. We have 310 million people, 100 million working age adults, and we barely created 2,000 jobs per state for 50 states (or 57, depending on who you're talking to), yet they reduce the unemployment rate by half a point? Riiiiight.

The administration manipulated these numbers just so Obama could say the rate is below 8%, that's the only reason.
 
2012-10-05 04:20:02 PM  

tony41454: Also, 1.1 million people have disappeared from the labor force during the past year. How does that happen?


I find it unendingly humorous that you don't realize baby boomers are retiring at record rates...
 
2012-10-05 04:20:32 PM  

tony41454: No incumbent has ever been reelected with the unemployment rate over 8%. So they had to get the number down, and they found a way to do it. You simply lower the number of people looking. So what we're being told is that thanks to a measly 114,000 jobs, the unemployment rate for Sept. fell from 8.3 to 7.8. That's a full half a percentage point. No way. Also, 1.1 million people have disappeared from the labor force during the past year. How does that happen? The government erases them, just assumes those people aren't looking. So they just subtract that many jobs, therefore the unemployment rate goes down.

And those 114,000 jobs? 114,000 is the number of people that can fit in a large college stadium. We have 310 million people, 100 million working age adults, and we barely created 2,000 jobs per state for 50 states (or 57, depending on who you're talking to), yet they reduce the unemployment rate by half a point? Riiiiight.

The administration manipulated these numbers just so Obama could say the rate is below 8%, that's the only reason.


Look how stupid you are!

Betsey Stevenson, a former chief economist at the Department of Labor under President Obama, said in a phone interview with TPM that the conspiracy theories were misguided in just about every way possible. For starters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn't currently run by a political appointee. For most of Obama's term, the commissioner was a holdover appointed by President Bush. The current acting commissioner John Gavin is a career BLS economist, not an Obama appointee.

The underlying data behind the BLS reports is also publicly released and used by analysts across the private sector and academia, meaning a conspiracy would have to survive scrutiny from trained economists of all political stripes.

Nor is there much time to cook the books at the top level if they wanted to.

"I worked for Secretary Hilda Solis and she didn't know the job numbers until 8 a.m. on the day," Stevenson said. "Which made my job very difficult, because I had to help her figure out what she was going to say when they were released." The BLS releases the numbers publicly at 8:30 a.m. ET.
 
2012-10-05 04:21:37 PM  

vegasj: I love it Drew

Main page = Jobless rate is down to 7.8% Romney still to be unemployed next month (spiffy)

hidden over on the polictics tab = You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs (followup)


It was probably due to some minority somewhere amirite?
 
2012-10-05 04:21:37 PM  

tony41454: No incumbent has ever been reelected with the unemployment rate over 8%. So they had to get the number down, and they found a way to do it. You simply lower the number of people looking. So what we're being told is that thanks to a measly 114,000 jobs, the unemployment rate for Sept. fell from 8.3 to 7.8. That's a full half a percentage point. No way. Also, 1.1 million people have disappeared from the labor force during the past year. How does that happen? The government erases them, just assumes those people aren't looking. So they just subtract that many jobs, therefore the unemployment rate goes down.

And those 114,000 jobs? 114,000 is the number of people that can fit in a large college stadium. We have 310 million people, 100 million working age adults, and we barely created 2,000 jobs per state for 50 states (or 57, depending on who you're talking to), yet they reduce the unemployment rate by half a point? Riiiiight.

The administration manipulated these numbers just so Obama could say the rate is below 8%, that's the only reason.


Wow, there's a lot of stupid crammed in here.
 
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