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(Hot Air)   You know how unemployment dipped to 7.8%. There's just one problem with that number. Hint: Don't use fuzzy math and People who give up looking for a job and leave unemployment is not the same as people getting jobs   (hotair.com) divider line 594
    More: Followup, CNBC, Chris Cuomo, warehousing, bright spot, Bureau of Labor Statistics  
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9111 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Oct 2012 at 3:00 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 03:26:46 PM

jst3p: Noam Chimpsky: I'm surprised the numbers aren't better on the expectation of regime change. Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.

Do people really think like this? I mean I know he is trolling but do you think he believes it?


He doesn't care. He just wants a few dumbass lurkers to believe it.
 
2012-10-05 03:26:57 PM

WizardofToast: Aarontology: The conservatives are doing it wrong.

Their whining about the jobs report is drowning out the liberals whining about the debate, thus eliminating any real boost Romney had and turning the national dialogue to the unemployment numbers dropping below 8%

So way to take advantage of Romney's performance guys. His momentum lasted a whole day.

There must be some kind of political physicals law that once a Democrat screws up, a Republican will soon enough do something dumber. Like some kind of elastic effect.


Yes, It's the Conservation of Derp Principle. it's a version of Newton's Third Law of Motion. "For every action, there is a opposite and derpier reaction."
 
2012-10-05 03:27:23 PM
Ok, so your unemployment benefits ran out. This sounds like that means you have absolutely no income coming in. Why would you just...stop looking for work? Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than discouragement. Oh woe is me, I can't find a job, I'm just going to stop looking and let my family starve. Hell, maybe we'll eat the cat next week. That's dumb. I mean, I'm sure it happens, but not in any percentage worth trying to count.

Wait, are people unemployed but newly enrolled on welfare counted? It's the only sense I can make out of it.
 
2012-10-05 03:27:56 PM

Nabb1: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Jackson Herring: Nabb1: Lurking Fear: Huh, because these same methods and numbers work just fine during republican administrations. I wonder what could possibly be different...

From what I recall of the politics threads from 2004, those methods and numbers did not work fine at all for the left leaning folks, many of whom rebuked the calculations with these same arguments in this article, but were perfectly okay for Bush supporters. Funny how things change, isn't it?

Oh of course, both sides are completely the same

So vote Republican.

You know, as much as I enjoy the Mutt and Jeff routine with the same boring, predictable, canned responses, there are other options besides the two dominant parties. Libertarian, Green, whatever. It may not affect the outcome, but at least you can assert your position in the booth.


Well go ahead, assume the position
 
2012-10-05 03:27:59 PM

GameSprocket: Yeah! Hell, they should come to the Twin Cities. We have about a 2-3% unemployment for programmers/IT. Companies are having a real hard time finding people to hire.


I've been hearing this in several areas of the country, from various Farkers... I have to ask... What specific industries/languages/specialties? If I can convince my boss to consider moving us toward contracting, maybe I'll finally get a damn raise...
 
2012-10-05 03:28:11 PM

gadian: Ok, so your unemployment benefits ran out. This sounds like that means you have absolutely no income coming in. Why would you just...stop looking for work? Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than discouragement. Oh woe is me, I can't find a job, I'm just going to stop looking and let my family starve. Hell, maybe we'll eat the cat next week. That's dumb. I mean, I'm sure it happens, but not in any percentage worth trying to count.

Wait, are people unemployed but newly enrolled on welfare counted? It's the only sense I can make out of it.


You seem to be neglecting the fact that BOOMERS ARE RETIRING.
 
2012-10-05 03:28:14 PM

Nabb1: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Jackson Herring: Nabb1: Lurking Fear: Huh, because these same methods and numbers work just fine during republican administrations. I wonder what could possibly be different...

From what I recall of the politics threads from 2004, those methods and numbers did not work fine at all for the left leaning folks, many of whom rebuked the calculations with these same arguments in this article, but were perfectly okay for Bush supporters. Funny how things change, isn't it?

Oh of course, both sides are completely the same

So vote Republican.

You know, as much as I enjoy the Mutt and Jeff routine with the same boring, predictable, canned responses, there are other options besides the two dominant parties. Libertarian, Green, whatever. It may not affect the outcome, but at least you can assert your position in the booth.


i.qkme.me

/gonna vote Green
//not in a swing state
 
2012-10-05 03:28:30 PM
pjmedia.com

www.aei-ideas.org
 
2012-10-05 03:28:46 PM

DamnYankees: The only way to ever make sense of these numbers is to use consistent parameters. As long as this is the system we use to judge these numbers, its the system we use. We need to accept that.


They think that by attacking the accuracy of the measurement, they somehow impeach it's accuracy as a metric.
Dumb people are dumb.
 
2012-10-05 03:29:05 PM

GameSprocket: jst3p: HST's Dead Carcass: I know one that was cut off from unemployment and has been clinging on to everything he owns. He attributes to the number of people not on unemployment.

Here's my town compared to statewide. Unemployment is dropping for the state because people were kicked off unemployment after an internal audit, but Colorado Springs is still rising.

Our town is at 9.8%, and at least 50% of that is IT/Tech jobs. Additionally, you can see by the red line for Colorado, exactly when they got the results of the audit, because the line goes from 9.3% to 7.7%... in an effort to make the national average look better. That many jobs weren't found, they just ended Unemployment for thousands of people over a 2 month period.

I call bullshiat.

Yeah! Hell, they should come to the Twin Cities. We have about a 2-3% unemployment for programmers/IT. Companies are having a real hard time finding people to hire.


Yeah, in the northern Denver metro we can't keep contractors, they keep getting full time gigs elsewhere. I have friends in the bay area and IT seems strong there too. In June it was reported that the IT unemployment rate was half the national average.

Link

This guy must be including Geek Squad people as "IT".
 
2012-10-05 03:29:08 PM
How do you revise jobs upward months later based on a survey you took months ago?

Wouldn't you know when you made the survey the exact number based on the people reporting in the survey?

Did someone leave a bag of August surveys in the hall closet and not find them until yesterday?
 
2012-10-05 03:29:27 PM

vpb: And I'll bet Bush is responsible for the jobs added because Obama was just implementing plans that he set up, right?


Unlikely.

More like these jobs are being created due to business owners realizing that Romney is going to open America up for business again.
 
2012-10-05 03:29:39 PM
Man, that is some serious quote mining. You've been saving that one.
 
2012-10-05 03:30:18 PM

gadian: Ok, so your unemployment benefits ran out. This sounds like that means you have absolutely no income coming in. Why would you just...stop looking for work? Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than discouragement. Oh woe is me, I can't find a job, I'm just going to stop looking and let my family starve. Hell, maybe we'll eat the cat next week. That's dumb. I mean, I'm sure it happens, but not in any percentage worth trying to count.

Wait, are people unemployed but newly enrolled on welfare counted? It's the only sense I can make out of it.


Or they go live on their parent's couch for a while until they get a job. Or they are unemployed but their spouse is employed and they just downsize their lifestyle. Or they run out of benefits but have enough savings to keep going. There are lots of possible reasons.
 
2012-10-05 03:30:25 PM

tomWright: [pjmedia.com image 850x481]

[www.aei-ideas.org image 801x491]


A Pajamas Media infographic? Seems credible, Shillnestro!
 
2012-10-05 03:30:36 PM
if only derp and butthurt made jobs.
 
2012-10-05 03:31:02 PM

HotWingConspiracy: thurstonxhowell: HotWingConspiracy: Methodology was never questioned when it suited their narrative. In fact, it was farking gospel truth proving that Fartnambla was farting away all the jobs.

I don't know where people are getting this. Righties have been crowing about how we're actually turbo-farked because of how high U6 is and how low workforce participation is for months.

Sure, we didn't hear much from them about U6 during the Bush admin, but they've definitely been bringing it up for most of Obama's. They're just doing it a bit more loudly now that U3 doesn't look so bad.

I don't recall this type of full court press, and I sure don't recall the conspiracy angle.


That's because there wasn't and there wasn't.

Reminds me of the Bush apologists hacks cum Post 2008 Fark Independents who claim they were worried about the deficit back when Bush was putting two wars and Medicare Part D on the credit card by sitting on their hand extra hard.
 
2012-10-05 03:31:27 PM

YoungSwedishBlonde: Why don't the unemployed just buy themselves a job?


They're lazy. They're even to lazy to ask their parents to call some of their big-name connections in business and politics.

Lazy bums.
 
2012-10-05 03:31:40 PM

Giltric: How do you revise jobs upward months later based on a survey you took months ago?

Wouldn't you know when you made the survey the exact number based on the people reporting in the survey?

Did someone leave a bag of August surveys in the hall closet and not find them until yesterday?


The large upward revisions to August payrolls released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning (with jobs data for September) drove conspiracy theorists wild. And they were strong, about three times the usual revision. But, as we pointed out in a report we sent to our clients earlier this week, this is a long-standing pattern. It almost always happens, whether there's an election coming up or not. Facts here:

August's gain was revised upward by 46,000, and July's by 40,000. Almost all the revisions, however, came from an upward revision of 101,000 to local government education in August before seasonal adjustment - a recurrent anomaly at this time of year that we wrote about in Wednesday's report. The concurrent seasonal adjustment technique distributes large changes like that backwards, so the gain was split between July and August in the adjusted numbers. Some excitable types are attributing the upward revision to political machinations, but this pattern has been around a long time. It's likely something is amiss in the BLS's collection process, and they are working on it. There shouldn't be a recurrent pattern of error like this. (Excitable types should also note that the birth/death model subtracted 9,000 jobs in September.)

-Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood
 
2012-10-05 03:32:01 PM

Giltric: How do you revise jobs upward months later based on a survey you took months ago?

Wouldn't you know when you made the survey the exact number based on the people reporting in the survey?

Did someone leave a bag of August surveys in the hall closet and not find them until yesterday?


Another Independent who didn't ever question Bush era employment numbers.

Suddenly Seymour - Obama has been promising free fried chicken to the Bureau of Labor Statistics!

//or falafel, depending on your adherence to Freeper mythology
 
2012-10-05 03:32:14 PM
As the year 2011 began on Jan. 1, the oldest members of the Baby Boom generation celebrated their 65th birthday. In fact, on that day, and for every day for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will reach age 65.
 
2012-10-05 03:32:48 PM

Nabb1: NateGrey: Nabb1: Lurking Fear: Huh, because these same methods and numbers work just fine during republican administrations. I wonder what could possibly be different...

From what I recall of the politics threads from 2004, those methods and numbers did not work fine at all for the left leaning folks, many of whom rebuked the calculations with these same arguments in this article, but were perfectly okay for Bush supporters. Funny how things change, isn't it?

Deep thoughts from a Fark Independent.

Deep thoughts are probably a completely foreign concept to anyone who uses that term.


As evidence for your assertion, I present yourself
 
2012-10-05 03:33:19 PM

pacified: Doug Henwood


i1162.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-05 03:34:02 PM
God almighty, it's a helicopter run entirely on right-wing spin and bullshiat.

The unemployment rate is not the number of people receiving unemployment compensation. It's the percentage of people actively looking, but unable, to find jobs.

If we were in job stagnation, you'd have a point - a dropping unemployment rate could signal people stopping their job searches out of despair. But we've been out of the jobs decline for over a year. It's not spectacular job growth, but you can't just claim, without evidence, that the drop in unemployment is due to people despairing when people are *actually getting new jobs*. Well, I mean, if you're a Republican you can claim anything, I guess, because you are a shameless asshole shill.
 
2012-10-05 03:34:41 PM

Noam Chimpsky: Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.


These business folk make business decisions based on hopes and dreams and not factual data like trends in polls?

They don't sound like very good business folk.
 
2012-10-05 03:34:50 PM

Giltric: How do you revise jobs upward months later based on a survey you took months ago?

Wouldn't you know when you made the survey the exact number based on the people reporting in the survey?

Did someone leave a bag of August surveys in the hall closet and not find them until yesterday?


You'd think this was a large country or something!
 
2012-10-05 03:34:58 PM
i1151.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-05 03:34:59 PM

odinsposse: gadian: Ok, so your unemployment benefits ran out. This sounds like that means you have absolutely no income coming in. Why would you just...stop looking for work? Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than discouragement. Oh woe is me, I can't find a job, I'm just going to stop looking and let my family starve. Hell, maybe we'll eat the cat next week. That's dumb. I mean, I'm sure it happens, but not in any percentage worth trying to count.

Wait, are people unemployed but newly enrolled on welfare counted? It's the only sense I can make out of it.

Or they go live on their parent's couch for a while until they get a job. Or they are unemployed but their spouse is employed and they just downsize their lifestyle. Or they run out of benefits but have enough savings to keep going. There are lots of possible reasons.


The vast majority of those who are leaving the workforce now are retiring Boomers. And there will be a lot more in the next few years. This is one of many reasons why U3, U5, U6 are all metrics - not measurements. they indicate change, and they are being done the same way as they have been for a long while.
 
2012-10-05 03:35:17 PM

pacified: if only derp and butthurt made jobs.


Image if it could harnessed by power plants...

The numbers aren't anything to break out the Champagne over, but the dial is slowly moving in the right direction.

It's rather telling how a small bit of good news for the country is being received by certain folks in this country.
 
2012-10-05 03:35:22 PM

Noam Chimpsky: I'm surprised the numbers aren't better on the expectation of regime change. Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.


Surrrre.
 
2012-10-05 03:36:35 PM

theknuckler_33: Noam Chimpsky: I'm surprised the numbers aren't better on the expectation of regime change. Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.

Surrrre.


1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.
 
2012-10-05 03:37:59 PM

Giltric: How do you revise jobs upward months later based on a survey you took months ago?

Wouldn't you know when you made the survey the exact number based on the people reporting in the survey?

Did someone leave a bag of August surveys in the hall closet and not find them until yesterday?


Link

As usual, simple explanation. No conspiracy.
 
2012-10-05 03:38:16 PM
 
2012-10-05 03:38:39 PM

DamnYankees: The only way to ever make sense of these numbers is to use consistent parameters. As long as this is the system we use to judge these numbers, its the system we use. We need to accept that.


That makes no sense at all. It like you don't even know the president is blah.
 
2012-10-05 03:38:59 PM

aug3: As the year 2011 began on Jan. 1, the oldest members of the Baby Boom generation celebrated their 65th birthday. In fact, on that day, and for every day for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will reach age 65.


That also means in the year 2030 we can finally party hard. Right?
 
2012-10-05 03:39:05 PM

Biological Ali: the only statement being made by people voting third party in the US (or other places with similar electoral systems) would be "I don't understand game theory."


I don't know what game theory has to do with the fact that my vote in my definitely not going to swing state doesn't stand a chance of changing anything. I'll vote for whoever the hell I feel like voting for.

I was gonna vote Libertarian, but the Libertarians I know managed to talk me out of it. Now I'm thinking Vermin Supreme. Or maybe Green. Depends how lulzy I'm feeling that day.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:09 PM

coeyagi: theknuckler_33: Noam Chimpsky: I'm surprised the numbers aren't better on the expectation of regime change. Business folk I know have been hiring and ramping up production on the expectation that Obama will be thrown out of office.

Surrrre.

1. 30% of Hillary voters support Romney
2. Silent majority
3. I don't remember what #3 was.


Bradley Effect. October Surprise. Gibble, gobble, geeble.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:12 PM

tomWright: coeyagi: tomWright: [pjmedia.com image 850x481]

[www.aei-ideas.org image 801x491]

A Pajamas Media infographic? Seems credible, Shillnestro!

Just sayin'

Some people are wondering why there are two such divergent numbers on employment. The reason is that there are actually two job surveys. One is based on asking establishments how many people are on their payroll, which initially covers roughly a third of all payroll employment. The second is based on asking households how many people in their family are working; the sample covers less than 1% of the population. Normal statistical variation guarantees that the two typically produce different results, though this month's difference was larger than usual. In addition, the two define employment differently. If somebody works two jobs, he will be counted twice by the payroll survey but just once by the household survey.

It could be legitimate, it could be politically shaded. The timing is suspicious


Without reading the link, you have me convinced that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is paid with proceeds from The Audacity of Hope.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:20 PM

Nabb1: Oh, I understand it just fine. I just don't care to play. I'm not going to blindly pull the lever for a Republican or Democrat because I'm conditioned to accept that. I've voted for Republicans, Democrats, Reform Party, Libertarians, and I think I once voted Green for some office or another. I skipped 2000, voted Badnarik '04, Ron Paul as a third party candidate in '08 (he was on the ballot in Louisiana on the "Tax Reform Party" ticket or something) and will vote for Gary Johnson this time around. I know it won't affect the outcome. Neither would changing my vote to Obama or Romney.


The problem with voting third party in electoral systems such as the one in the US is that you're actually raising the probability (relative to a scenario where you voted sensibly) of the least desirable plausible option being elected. So in that sense you're actually doing worse than Dilbert - not only does your vote accomplish literally nothing positive, but it carries with it a negative expected return, with its magnitude dependent on how likely the least desirable plausible option being elected was to begin with.

You can talk up the third party's platforms to try and make them more popular, you can try to canvas for them and raise their profile at the grassroots level, that stuff is fine; you might actually make some small difference that way. But there is literally no sensible reason to actually vote for a party that you know will lose some particular election.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:28 PM
I was recently on a hiring committe, and based on the interviews we did, I would estimate unemployment at 2%, max. It quickly became clear that almost everyone with any type of marketable skills is already employed. What we saw for the most part were a bunch of social rejects that, if they showed up to work at all, would break more than they fixed and cause more problems than they solved.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:45 PM
Republicans sure do hate to hear good news for America.
 
2012-10-05 03:39:52 PM

tomWright: It could be legitimate, it could be politically shaded. The timing is suspicious


In other words, it's suspicious because it doesn't favor your narrative.
 
2012-10-05 03:40:20 PM
So we can add unemployment rate metric calculations to the list of things Republicans are suddenly concerned about when a black man is president. 

To go along with

Deficit Spending
Debt Ceiling Raises
Presidents Getting Glory for Military Triumphs Under Their Watch

Missing anything?
 
2012-10-05 03:40:41 PM

tomWright: coeyagi: tomWright: [pjmedia.com image 850x481]

[www.aei-ideas.org image 801x491]

A Pajamas Media infographic? Seems credible, Shillnestro!

Just sayin'

Some people are wondering why there are two such divergent numbers on employment. The reason is that there are actually two job surveys. One is based on asking establishments how many people are on their payroll, which initially covers roughly a third of all payroll employment. The second is based on asking households how many people in their family are working; the sample covers less than 1% of the population. Normal statistical variation guarantees that the two typically produce different results, though this month's difference was larger than usual. In addition, the two define employment differently. If somebody works two jobs, he will be counted twice by the payroll survey but just once by the household survey.

It could be legitimate, it could be politically shaded. The timing is suspicious


They realease these numbers every month, same day. the timing is normal and customary.
YOU may be suspicious - the "timing" isn't.
 
2012-10-05 03:40:42 PM
It's almost like there are several different metrics for unemployment, and if you lambast the one that doesn't include the people whose benefits have run out you're just going to look like a farking moron because we also track the number that does include those people and that number's going down too.
 
2012-10-05 03:41:04 PM
The economy is finally starting to show signs of improvement and conservative trolls are OUTRAGED.

/Boy do they love America
 
2012-10-05 03:41:29 PM

tomWright: The timing is suspicious


Yes. That report that is released every month sure has some questionable timing. You know what else is questionable? 0bambi is having his election during the work week, when many of us bootstrappy souls will be at work, but the 47%ers will be free to roam the streets and vote. I, for one, am dubious that this is a coincidence.
 
2012-10-05 03:41:31 PM

InmanRoshi: So we can add unemployment rate metric calculations to the list of things Republicans are suddenly concerned about when a black man is president. 

To go along with

Deficit Spending
Debt Ceiling Raises
Presidents Getting Glory for Military Triumphs Under Their Watch

Missing anything?


The truth

LOL just kidding
 
2012-10-05 03:41:45 PM

odinsposse: Conservative bloggers really are the awkward kid everyone made fun of in high school aren't they?


In fairness, the same could be said of most all bloggers, regardless of ideology.

/Former blogger
//Liberal
///You wouldn't know me; I was kind of obscure
 
2012-10-05 03:42:14 PM

intelligent comment below: The economy is finally starting to show signs of improvement and conservative trolls are OUTRAGED.

/Boy do they love America


It's inconceivable, since Rush Limbaugh says Obama hates America, that anything under his Muslimpremacy would ever improve for America.
 
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