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(NPR)   Jobless rate is down to 7.8% Romney still to be unemployed next month   (npr.org) divider line 791
    More: Spiffy, Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment  
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4070 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Oct 2012 at 9:06 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 12:03:35 PM

Thunderpipes: so do most economists


What? When did this happen?
 
2012-10-05 12:04:30 PM

Lando Lincoln: The Stealth Hippopotamus: However this jubilation is unwarranted and it sure as heck doesnt merit renewing President Obama's contract.

It certainly does if you take a look at his opponent.


I think it does period. The data over the summer was mixed, but this (along with the previous month's adjustment) really shows that our economy has mostly recovered (except new housing construction). New housing is a lagging indicator, so I think Obama's done enough to merit renewing his contract regardless of his opponent.
 
2012-10-05 12:04:52 PM

MFL: If you aren't skeptical of these numbers you are either a partisan hack or a fool.


The numbers are only correct if they are bad news for the country and Obama.
 
2012-10-05 12:04:58 PM

Jackpot777: This is classic!

Conn Carroll, a senior writer at the conservative Washington Examiner suggested a slightly less nefarious form of manipulation of the data.

"I don't think BLS cooked numbers. I think a bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs. That would have same effect," he tweeted. "Would love to see the partisan breakdown of the 873,000 Americans who say they got new jobs."

[i3.kym-cdn.com image 320x240]

"Payroll reporting does not work that way!"

You heard it here first, people. Apparently, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DEMOCRATS formed companies and then added themselves to the payrolls of those companies that report to the Labor Department.

They just went full retard. Time for popcorn!


Household survey very much factors in to the numbers, they don't actually survey 800,000 people you know.
 
2012-10-05 12:05:07 PM

Thunderpipes: Even if the number was true, which it is not (it will be revised), fact that libs are wetting their pants over 7.8% unemployment, and huge drop in household income, shows how dumb people really are.


I know it has been mentioned, but since you are an idiot, we need to really drive it home...the last 2 job reports have been revised upward (higher job creation than initially reported)

/your tears sustain me
//waaaah this was supposed to be Romney's week!
 
2012-10-05 12:05:13 PM

Thunderpipes: I call sauce, so do most economists. Number is simply wrong.


Well, I'm sure that'll wrap up the right-wing conspiracy theorist vote for Romney. He really need to get those back into his column. Well done!
 
2012-10-05 12:06:32 PM

MFL: Two days after getting beat like a government mule in a debate we all knew the boys from chicago were going to pull something....

Everyone and their brother new the whitehouse was going to manipulate unemployment numbers below 8% before election day, I just thought they were going to save this card until closer to the election.

If you aren't skeptical of these numbers you are either a partisan hack or a fool.


WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!!!
 
2012-10-05 12:06:38 PM

MFL: Two days after getting beat like a government mule in a debate we all knew the boys from chicago were going to pull something....

Everyone and their brother new the whitehouse was going to manipulate unemployment numbers below 8% before election day, I just thought they were going to save this card until closer to the election.

If you aren't skeptical of these numbers you are either a partisan hack or a fool.

I can't wait for the next debate.


So Romney is a fool and all the other Conservatives accepting the figure but arguing the numbers should be even lower are fools?
 
2012-10-05 12:07:08 PM

The Jami Turman Fan Club: I think it does period. The data over the summer was mixed, but this (along with the previous month's adjustment) really shows that our economy has mostly recovered (except new housing construction). New housing is a lagging indicator, so I think Obama's done enough to merit renewing his contract regardless of his opponent.


Even new housing has been trending upwards, but slowly.
 
2012-10-05 12:07:41 PM

MFL: Two days after getting beat like a government mule in a debate we all knew the boys from chicago were going to pull something....

Everyone and their brother new the whitehouse was going to manipulate unemployment numbers below 8% before election day, I just thought they were going to save this card until closer to the election.

If you aren't skeptical of these numbers you are either a partisan hack or a fool.

I can't wait for the next debate.


Speaking of partisan hacks and fools...

Feel free to explain of they "manipulated" the numbers... Some evidence would be good, too.
 
2012-10-05 12:07:53 PM

CNBC spends all day trusting folks who missed the Bush crash. But they just aren't sure about these jobs numbers.

- LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) October 5, 2012
 
2012-10-05 12:08:58 PM

MFL: Everyone and their brother new the whitehouse was going to manipulate unemployment numbers below 8% before election day


Everyone "knew" that except those who actually know the whitehouse doesn't control these figures.

Dumbarse.
 
2012-10-05 12:09:17 PM

Thunderpipes: Jackpot777: This is classic!

Conn Carroll, a senior writer at the conservative Washington Examiner suggested a slightly less nefarious form of manipulation of the data.

"I don't think BLS cooked numbers. I think a bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs. That would have same effect," he tweeted. "Would love to see the partisan breakdown of the 873,000 Americans who say they got new jobs."

[i3.kym-cdn.com image 320x240]

"Payroll reporting does not work that way!"

You heard it here first, people. Apparently, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DEMOCRATS formed companies and then added themselves to the payrolls of those companies that report to the Labor Department.

They just went full retard. Time for popcorn!

Household survey very much factors in to the numbers, they don't actually survey 800,000 people you know.


Ah, the Dems just happened to get to a statistically significant number of the people that were going to be asked.

That was lucky of them. Wasn't it.

i301.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-05 12:09:23 PM

swangoatman: JusticeandIndependence: swangoatman: FROM California TV http://www.ktla.com
the ONLY numbers that rally count in this election cycle::
Gas prices shot up 19.2 cents overnight Thursday, and the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in L.A. County was $4.58 on Friday, the highest figure since 2008.
In Orange County, the average is up 20 cents to $4.53,while in the Inland Empire, it's up to $4.48. In Ventura County, the average price per gallon is $4.54.
The price increases could continue for weeks and the average might even break the $5 mark, according to experts.

Thanks for that. What does that have to do with unemployment?

It's the impact that it will have on PRESENT and FUTURE numbers, regardless of how wonderful the past three months may "indicate".
A crop fire today is far more impacting on tomorrow than a rain storm last week when recovering from a drought.
PS. You appear to be a little sensitive. It' Friday ,lighten up Francis.


So, local disruptions and intentional slowdowns in refining production leading to local spikes in gas prices in blue-as-blue-can-be California, is going to sway the election?

Okie-dokie.
 
2012-10-05 12:10:03 PM

theknuckler_33: JusticeandIndependence: swangoatman: FROM California TV JusticeandIndependence: swangoatman:
So, the headline is exactly the opposite of the story. Incredible.

But, cearly the local price increases in southern California are Obama's fault.


I never said it was anybodies fault.
I said the numbers that really count or matter. Most everyone pays for gas daily or weekly.
The Networks and Cable are making it sound as though this is a national trend and will continue for "weeks".
That is THESE are the real daily figures that people who vote see flashing in their eyes as the debate turns to "who pissed on who's feet and what is that thing Mitt is carrying and why Obama look scared" talk that goes on in politically partisan threads." Also I am the sole judge of what matters to me in my posts, so f*ck you.
 
2012-10-05 12:11:45 PM

Thunderpipes: Household survey very much factors in to the numbers, they don't actually survey 800,000 people you know.


The blue line, the household survey, is always WAY more volatile.

static2.businessinsider.com

Link
 
2012-10-05 12:13:20 PM
ORLY??

If you count those that are frustrated with this failing economy and have stopped looking for a job, the unemployment rate is over 11%.


sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2012-10-05 12:14:42 PM

someonelse: Dusk-You-n-Me: September jobs report: Debunking the jobs report conspiracy theories

Read up, haters!

The first sentence of that article sums it up perfectly: "We've hit that moment in the election when people begin to lose their minds." Don't like the data? IT MUST BE WITCHCRAFT!


i265.photobucket.com
You called?
 
2012-10-05 12:15:34 PM

cameroncrazy1984: tkwasny: The Muthaship: That many joined the "not trying to find a job anymore' rolls?

Temp Christmas help is counted every year when added. Not counted in January when they are fired. Standard numbers manipulation both parties run every year.

Here's a guy who doesn't understand what "seasonally-adjusted" means.


Here's a guy that believes what the govt tells them. Good sheep.
 
2012-10-05 12:17:48 PM
PS: the so called "local gas event" in California has let to a 7 cent rise in gas here in SC since Wednesday. We do not have a mandated winter blend infusion as Cali does either. I guess it must be the "speculators" at it again.
Economics and Micro and Maco impacts. Go read your Economics for Idiots book again.
 
2012-10-05 12:18:35 PM

vegasj: ORLY??

If you count those that are frustrated with this failing economy and have stopped looking for a job, the unemployment rate is over 11%.


[sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net image 600x600]


Sorry ... I refused to actually believe that 1 in 10 people truly cannot find a job. I think it's more 1 in 10 people are too fraking lazy to go get a job or have too high of standards to work a job they think is "beneath them". I mean, seriously, I've been continually employed since I was 9 years old ... this isn't that difficult, people!

MickeyDs and The BK Lounge are ALWAYS hiring and, I know, but $7.50/hr is better than $0/hr. Get off your arse, get back to work, and shut the fark up. I pull home a high-five-figure salary every year and if I lost my job, I'd be working the next day somewhere.
 
2012-10-05 12:19:11 PM
"But this doesn't count people that have given up looking for employment," says the group of people who believe in personal accountability.

Conservatives are so quick to go from, "Lazy people are a drain on society," to, "What about all the people that've given up?" when it suits them.
 
2012-10-05 12:21:07 PM
If you honestly don't think these job numbers are manipulated (and they are every month), then I've got some Florida real estate for you.
 
2012-10-05 12:21:41 PM
A true jobs creator could go down to the unemployment office and find a few hot ladies to take off the line for a few hours so the numbers could drop. OR maybe the fact that teachers aids are being hired is the same thing?
 
2012-10-05 12:22:21 PM

swangoatman: The Networks and Cable are making it sound as though this is a national trend and will continue for "weeks".


They might want to check oil prices.

The last 2 years
growlersoftware.com

The last 50 days
growlersoftware.com
 
2012-10-05 12:23:25 PM

swangoatman: theknuckler_33: JusticeandIndependence: swangoatman: FROM California TV JusticeandIndependence: swangoatman:
So, the headline is exactly the opposite of the story. Incredible.

But, cearly the local price increases in southern California are Obama's fault.

I never said it was anybodies fault.
I said the numbers that really count or matter. Most everyone pays for gas daily or weekly.
The Networks and Cable are making it sound as though this is a national trend and will continue for "weeks".
That is THESE are the real daily figures that people who vote see flashing in their eyes as the debate turns to "who pissed on who's feet and what is that thing Mitt is carrying and why Obama look scared" talk that goes on in politically partisan threads."


You don't know what you are talking about and outside southern california and perhaps some other local spots, noone is talking about gas prices spikes going on for weeks.

Oil is down 10% since a month ago and down a smidge again today. (click the "3m" link on that page to see the 3 month trend. Oil is down since beginning of September... which usually happens after the summer.).

Retail gas is down nationwide. Granted, not much, but down about 6-7 cents since last month which corresponds nicely with the drop in oil.

Maybe you live in southern california and if you do, the situation there regarding gas prices does suck, but it is hardly a reflection of what is going on across the nation.

Also I am the sole judge of what matters to me in my posts, so f*ck you.

Aww, that's cute.
 
2012-10-05 12:23:46 PM

tony41454: If you honestly don't think these job numbers are manipulated (and they are every month), then I've got some Florida real estate for you.


I don't like the numbers so they must not be true.

See also: polling numbers, climate change, voter fraud

Today's GOP lives and operates in a completely separate reality. But we should totally take them Very Seriously.
 
2012-10-05 12:23:48 PM
Link

Actual BLS report. Magically, 600,000 people got off their butts in the household survey (not the establishment, the business survey) in one month. This is simply not true, and yes, likely anyone who wants Obama to win is making crap up when surveyed.

numbers are terrible any way you look at it. The fact you guys are drooling over cooked books 7.8% unemployment with decreased wages and 50% un or underemployed recent college grads is full on retard.
 
2012-10-05 12:24:49 PM

Thunderpipes: Actual BLS report. Magically, 600,000 people got off their butts in the household survey (not the establishment, the business survey) in one month. This is simply not true, and yes, likely anyone who wants Obama to win is making crap up when surveyed.

numbers are terrible any way you look at it. The fact you guys are drooling over cooked books 7.8% unemployment with decreased wages and 50% un or underemployed recent college grads is full on retard.


Today's GOP lives and operates in a completely separate reality. But we should totally take them Very Seriously.
 
2012-10-05 12:24:50 PM

mrshowrules: Brubold: impaler: Brubold: GAT_00: So unemployment is now lower than when he took office. There go a swarm of GOP talking points.

Yeah if that unemployment number meant anything you'd have a point. The reason the number keeps inching down is because people keep dropping out of the work force because they can't find work. As Romney points out, the real number would be closer to 11% if that wasn't the case.

Then why is U6 dropping?

Dumbarse.

It hasn't dropped. It stayed at 14.7%.

Since Obama passed his first budget in October 2009, the U6 has dropped from 17.2% to 14.7%. So it has been dropping gradually.


Well if we're talking about since he got into office, yeah. I thought we were talking about this latest drop to 7.8% and what it represents.
 
2012-10-05 12:24:52 PM

vegasj: ORLY??

If you count those that are frustrated with this failing economy and have stopped looking for a job, the unemployment rate is over 11%.


[sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net image 600x600]


That is really good news because the "real" unemployment rate in June of 2010 was 17.3%.
 
2012-10-05 12:27:09 PM

swangoatman: PS: the so called "local gas event" in California has let to a 7 cent rise in gas here in SC since Wednesday. We do not have a mandated winter blend infusion as Cali does either. I guess it must be the "speculators" at it again.
Economics and Micro and Maco impacts. Go read your Economics for Idiots book again.


O'RLY?
 
2012-10-05 12:27:11 PM

smitty04: [images.businessweek.com image 600x350] 
Two houses within two blocks of me are in foreclosure, people are just walking away from them. The economy seems to be getting worse.


Yes, your anecdote, coupled with a stock photo, definitely override professionally prepared reports upon which the financial system base their actions.

Moron.
 
2012-10-05 12:27:21 PM

Spade: Lost Thought 00: Spade: I have a question:

So we added 114,000 jobs.
But the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000.

So, what happened to the other 342,000 people that aren't unemployed but apparently didn't get jobs?

They retired

I guess all those 401ks and other retirement investments that have tanked over the past few years have come roaring back then?


Have you seen the stock market lately? My protfolio is higher than the begining of the recession.
 
2012-10-05 12:28:02 PM

seadoo2006: Sorry ... I refused to actually believe that 1 in 10 people truly cannot find a job

.

Well, depends what you mean by people... but U5, which includes "discouraged workers" is under 10 percent. Only U6, which includes people that are part time but desire and are available for full time work, is over 10 percent.

I think it's more 1 in 10 people are too fraking lazy to go get a job or have too high of standards to work a job they think is "beneath them". I mean, seriously, I've been continually employed since I was 9 years old ... this isn't that difficult, people!

I'm not gonna call you a liar... but continually employed since you were nine? I'm guessing those first few were jobs that probably wouldn't show up in the gov't employment numbers.

MickeyDs and The BK Lounge are ALWAYS hiring and, I know, but $7.50/hr is better than $0/hr. Get off your arse, get back to work, and shut the fark up.

Apparently, about 582,000 people did that. And that's why the headline number dropped.
 
2012-10-05 12:29:32 PM

theknuckler_33: swangoatman: PS: the so called "local gas event" in California has let to a 7 cent rise in gas here in SC since Wednesday. We do not have a mandated winter blend infusion as Cali does either. I guess it must be the "speculators" at it again.
Economics and Micro and Maco impacts. Go read your Economics for Idiots book again.

O'RLY?


Well, that lnk didn't work. But you can get to South Carolina's state average from there and you can also go to South Carolina's various metro areas. None of them show a spike at all from yesterday or last week.
 
2012-10-05 12:30:00 PM

seadoo2006: vegasj: ORLY??

If you count those that are frustrated with this failing economy and have stopped looking for a job, the unemployment rate is over 11%.


[sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net image 600x600]

Sorry ... I refused to actually believe that 1 in 10 people truly cannot find a job. I think it's more 1 in 10 people are too fraking lazy to go get a job or have too high of standards to work a job they think is "beneath them". I mean, seriously, I've been continually employed since I was 9 years old ... this isn't that difficult, people!

MickeyDs and The BK Lounge are ALWAYS hiring and, I know, but $7.50/hr is better than $0/hr. Get off your arse, get back to work, and shut the fark up. I pull home a high-five-figure salary every year and if I lost my job, I'd be working the next day somewhere.


Because it's more lucrative to collect unemployment and search for a better paying job than to take one at minimum wage? Opportunity costs, my friend.
 
2012-10-05 12:31:04 PM

Hermione_Granger: I'm very critical supporter of President of Obama, mainly because I think the Republicans are just plain slave masters in training. But even I can do simple math.

When Obama became President, unemployment bottomed out at around 16%. He said he would get it to 6%. Every week I watch the Sunday morning bobblehead shows and they're all like

- unemployment is still over 10% - OMG!! WHARGARBLE!!1111!
- unemployment is still over 9% - The President is lying scum.
- unemployment is still over 8.6% - the sky is falling, Obama has not kept his promise!
- unemployment is at 8.45 - The President is full of shiat.
- unemployment is at 8% - why can't this President get it together? What is his problem? He's not working for the economy at all!

Now that unemployment is at 7.8%, I expect their heads are just gonna explode and they're going to declare him an unpatriotic traitor who hates America....

....oh wait


First, the President has NEVER said he would get unemployment to 6%. Ever. That little tidbit can from an economic analysis that said the stimulus MIGHT get unemployment to 6% if all of it was implemented.

You are only repeating Romney lie. I highly suggest you adjust from this point forward.
 
2012-10-05 12:31:25 PM

Thunderpipes: numbers are terrible any way you look at it. The fact you guys are drooling over cooked books 7.8% unemployment with decreased wages and 50% un or underemployed recent college grads is full on retard.


You know I always loved that talking point. The Republicans looked at unemployment rates for college graduates a month or two after they graduated and came out with this OMG THE COLLEGE GRADS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS 50%!!!!!11!!!1!!!!!! Anyone that is not retarded could see that this would make sense because they JUST STARTED LOOKING FOR A FARKING JOB YOU FARKING MOUTH BREATHER! A couple of months later that number had dropped to under 7%. Seriously you are pretty easily manipulated.
 
2012-10-05 12:32:01 PM

Thunderpipes: Link

Actual BLS report. Magically, 600,000 people got off their butts in the household survey (not the establishment, the business survey) in one month. This is simply not true, and yes, likely anyone who wants Obama to win is making crap up when surveyed.

numbers are terrible any way you look at it. The fact you guys are drooling over cooked books 7.8% unemployment with decreased wages and 50% un or underemployed recent college grads is full on retard.


Man I feel sorry for you. Going through life thinking the world is against you, the only thing you have is trust in people that think just like you. Man what a miserable existence you must have.
 
2012-10-05 12:32:03 PM
It's MAGIC!!! Obama needs good news, and it appears! 114K new jobs and the rate goes down half a percentage point?

smellslikebullcrap.jpg
 
2012-10-05 12:32:08 PM

James!: Romney recovery?


Romney recovery.
 
2012-10-05 12:32:34 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: CNBC spends all day trusting folks who missed the Bush crash. But they just aren't sure about these jobs numbers.- LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) October 5, 2012


I said it before but it's weird how CNBC is basically the evil twin of MSNBC spouting the opposite for the other team.
 
2012-10-05 12:34:02 PM

incendi: DaCaptain19: Unemployment is lower due to more and more people giving up looking for a job.

Not this time, Cap'n.


Well, it would seem "simple" farkers see this number and attribute anyone who doesn't agree with it a "republican".

I go deeper than that. I don't trust the government - period. I don't care who the f*ck gets elected - it ain't the person, it's the system. The system is not broke, it's unfix-ably broke.

Lies, Liars and Damn Liars. These are your leaders.
 
2012-10-05 12:36:20 PM

shotglasss: It's MAGIC!!! Obama needs good news, and it appears! 114K new jobs and the rate goes down half a percentage point?

smellslikebullcrap.jpg


wemeantwell.com
Smells like.... victory.
 
2012-10-05 12:36:32 PM

shotglasss: It's MAGIC!!! Obama needs good news, and it appears! 114K new jobs and the rate goes down half a percentage point?

smellslikebullcrap.jpg


i2.kym-cdn.com
 
2012-10-05 12:36:45 PM
I'll make a shorter point: ANY of you that believe these numbers are gullible f*cktards of the 1st degree.

Keep drinking the kool-aid, f*ckers!
 
2012-10-05 12:37:34 PM

shotglasss: It's MAGIC!!! Obama needs good news, and it appears! 114K new jobs and the rate goes down half a percentage point?

smellslikebullcrap.jpg


The world is conspiring against you. Your parania is justified. The polls are fixed, the non-partisan statisticians are croocked; the media, science, facts! I'm sure even Osama put up a homing beacon up for the SEALs just to piss you off.
 
2012-10-05 12:37:45 PM

incendi: seadoo2006: Sorry ... I refused to actually believe that 1 in 10 people truly cannot find a job.

Well, depends what you mean by people... but U5, which includes "discouraged workers" is under 10 percent. Only U6, which includes people that are part time but desire and are available for full time work, is over 10 percent.

I think it's more 1 in 10 people are too fraking lazy to go get a job or have too high of standards to work a job they think is "beneath them". I mean, seriously, I've been continually employed since I was 9 years old ... this isn't that difficult, people!

I'm not gonna call you a liar... but continually employed since you were nine? I'm guessing those first few were jobs that probably wouldn't show up in the gov't employment numbers.

MickeyDs and The BK Lounge are ALWAYS hiring and, I know, but $7.50/hr is better than $0/hr. Get off your arse, get back to work, and shut the fark up.

Apparently, about 582,000 people did that. And that's why the headline number dropped.


Sorry ... my post did come off as right wing-ery, but I assure you I'm one of the biggest flaming, liberal socialist, Democrats around here. However to answer a few posts, U5 still seems high. Maybe there are vast contingents of people out there that literally sit at home every single day of the last 4 years, but I just can't fathom that, but, I'm not a statistician and I'll never claim to be one ... it just seems high.

I got my first paper route when I was 9 years old, held it until I was 16, so I don't even know how that counts into the labor force. Somehow this profession has escaped child labor laws and, as I recall, it was a wholly cash business, so who knows?

And, if 600,000 more people are employed, sounds great, I hope more people keep getting employed. This is not a bad thing. Al I was saying was that it seems very, very, very "off" to me that 1 in 10 people truly aren't working.
 
2012-10-05 12:37:51 PM

Brubold: mrshowrules: Brubold: impaler: Brubold: GAT_00: So unemployment is now lower than when he took office. There go a swarm of GOP talking points.

Yeah if that unemployment number meant anything you'd have a point. The reason the number keeps inching down is because people keep dropping out of the work force because they can't find work. As Romney points out, the real number would be closer to 11% if that wasn't the case.

Then why is U6 dropping?

Dumbarse.

It hasn't dropped. It stayed at 14.7%.

Since Obama passed his first budget in October 2009, the U6 has dropped from 17.2% to 14.7%. So it has been dropping gradually.

Well if we're talking about since he got into office, yeah. I thought we were talking about this latest drop to 7.8% and what it represents.


OK. What does it represent to you? I'll go first. It represents it being somewhat easier to get a job if you are looking for work than a few months ago. It represents it being much easier to find work than a few years ago.

It basically means that Conservatives can no longer argue that Obama made things worse (in terms of jobs anyways). They can only argue that the recovery should have been stronger than it was.
 
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