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(Deadspin)   Interesting momentum chart that may actually predict the AL division playoff outcome   (deadspin.com) divider line 21
    More: Interesting, American League, playoffs, Baseball Prospectus, moving average, main event, momentum, AL West  
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1594 clicks; posted to Sports » on 05 Oct 2012 at 10:41 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-05 08:31:40 AM
Momentum chart shows Tampa ahead of the Yanks. Call my bookie, I'm going to make a fortune on this.
 
2012-10-05 10:21:58 AM
I could create a chart of the relative whiteness of every postseason team's roster and claim that the most white team would win (or least white, for that matter) and that would have every bit as much to do with who wins the divisional playoffs as these charts do.

I could create a chart based on how many cats live in each team's city and it would have the same bearing.

The only difference is that there wouldn't be nearly as many people stupid enough to think that, if the cities with the most cats advanced, that the cats were actually an indicator that they would be successful.
 
2012-10-05 11:09:40 AM
Wish I had time to draw in the Red Sox. You know, just for the lulz.
 
2012-10-05 11:20:26 AM
I'm sitting here in my office, wearing an O's jersey, kinda feeling like a piano is about to drop on me. A big, blue piano with a block-case T on it.
 
2012-10-05 11:39:34 AM

pag1107: I'm sitting here in my office, wearing an O's jersey, kinda feeling like a piano is about to drop on me. A big, blue piano with a block-case T on it.


I wouldn't worry. Considering how the Rangers have played over the last 30 days, I fully expect Joe Saunders, who has never won at Arlington and in fact has gotten his ass handed to him each time he pitches here, to pitch eight shutout innings while Darvish pitches seven to eight innings of 11-K, 1 BB, one run ball, and for the Orioles to win 1-0 or 2-1, with Josh Hamilton going 0-5 with four Ks.

/sound of wrists being slit
//goddammittohell...
 
2012-10-05 12:02:16 PM

tnpir:
I wouldn't worry. Considering how the Rangers have played over the last 30 days, I fully expect Joe Saunders, who has never won at Arlington and in fact has gotten his ass handed to him each time he pitches here, to pitch eight shutout innings while Darvish pitches seven to eight innings of 11-K, 1 BB, one run ball, and for the Orioles to win 1-0 or 2-1, with Josh Hamilton going 0-5 with four Ks.

/sound of wrists being slit
//goddammittohell...


While Hamilton could very well disappear in the game, I strongly doubt that everyone else will too. The Rangers have been to the past two postseasons, playing all the way through. The atmosphere will be nothing new to them, and they have the additional advantage of playing in front of the home crowd.

I'm certainly not discounting the way they've played over the last month - they tanked and collapsed, plain and simple. And baseball is a game where anything can happen. I'm certainly hoping that now it's postseason baseball, the Rangers will flip "on" whatever switch they need to, and play to their ability.
 
2012-10-05 12:16:25 PM

Hardy-r-r: Wish I had time to draw in the Red Sox. You know, just for the lulz.


webpages.charter.net
 
2012-10-05 12:24:39 PM
It's definitely a chart
 
2012-10-05 12:30:35 PM
These charts are silly as is the concept of "momentum". The only thing I feel safe predicting is that the Rangers will lose today since they don't appear to want to win baseball games.
 
2012-10-05 12:32:26 PM

Cagey B: These charts are silly as is the concept of "momentum". The only thing I feel safe predicting is that the Rangers will lose today since they don't appear to want to win baseball games.


Yeah, everybody knows psychology plays not part in sports.
 
2012-10-05 12:40:55 PM
I did like the one reader comment: "If you plot the 5-, 10-, and 25-day moving averages, and the 5-day crosses the 25-day, Jim Cramer owes Lenny Dykstra a conjugal visit."
 
2012-10-05 12:43:05 PM
When I predict sports outcomes with derp I prefer the derp to be in the form of octopusses.

static.ibnlive.in.com
 
2012-10-05 12:47:59 PM

MugzyBrown: Yeah, everybody knows psychology plays not part in sports.


"Psychology" is an actual concept that, while having detractors, is recognized generally as a real thing by the scientific community and treated as such.

"Momentum" is a completely made-up construct that, if followed to its logical conclusion, would mean that all postseason series would end in sweeps. However, it's even more idiotic than that, and is instead used by sports fans as a tautology to explain why Team A is winning and Team B is not.

Here's an example:

If the Rangers lose tonight:

"Oh man, they had no momentum whatsoever after losing the AL West this week, everyone totally saw this coming!"

If the Rangers win tonight:

"Wow, the Rangers will be heading into their series with the Yankees with a lot of momentum after their exciting win over the Orioles!"
 
2012-10-05 01:06:55 PM
Momentum does not exist from game to game. It lives within 9 innings, or 4 quarters or 3 periods.
 
2012-10-05 01:31:01 PM

Cagey B: "Momentum" is a completely made-up construct that, if followed to its logical conclusion, would mean that all postseason series would end in sweeps. However, it's even more idiotic than that, and is instead used by sports fans as a tautology to explain why Team A is winning and Team B is not.


hulk hogan meat shoes: Momentum does not exist from game to game. It lives within 9 innings, or 4 quarters or 3 periods.


This totally discounts any psychology in sports. Momentum is basically confidence, and a player's confience level at any one time can surely change how they play.

There are obvious times in games you can see a team or an individual who has a supreme confidence, or a team who just seems nervous in a given situation.

And this can go from game to game. A team could have a 3 game streak where they just can't hit and as you watch you can see it. You can see suddenly the team swinging at pitches out of the zone because they're pressing.

There's nothing full-proof about it. It can change on a dime.. it can be harmful, over-confidence, but you can't say it doesn't exist. There are too many games in too many sports that you can see a single play change a 24-0 football win into a 24-28 loss. You can see a team not have a single runner in scoring position all game and then score 5 in the 9th because of a single walk to lead off the inning.
 
2012-10-05 02:44:09 PM

tnpir: pag1107: I'm sitting here in my office, wearing an O's jersey, kinda feeling like a piano is about to drop on me. A big, blue piano with a block-case T on it.

I wouldn't worry. Considering how the Rangers have played over the last 30 days, I fully expect Joe Saunders, who has never won at Arlington and in fact has gotten his ass handed to him each time he pitches here, to pitch eight shutout innings while Darvish pitches seven to eight innings of 11-K, 1 BB, one run ball, and for the Orioles to win 1-0 or 2-1, with Josh Hamilton going 0-5 with four Ks.

/sound of wrists being slit
//goddammittohell...


Seriously. In some ways I kind of hope they lose tonight just to put an end to the pain early. After they lost Colby it hasn't been the same team. Even if they make it tonight I don't see them beating the Yankees.

Also good riddance to Josh Hamilton. Even when he's performing I think there's a growing contention of fans who are sick of his sanctimonious BS. I think the front office is too and they're ready for him to be someone else's problem.
 
2012-10-05 05:50:03 PM

skrame: Hardy-r-r: Wish I had time to draw in the Red Sox. You know, just for the lulz.

[webpages.charter.net image 460x134]


Perfect
 
2012-10-05 05:57:30 PM
And if we factor in how many wins each team would have had if played entirely by minor league players, that would give us some imaginary number that correlates to the WTF ratio that would determine who should get the Super Stanley Lombardi Series of the World trophy?

/Go Get 'em Tigers
 
2012-10-05 06:10:52 PM

MugzyBrown: Cagey B: "Momentum" is a completely made-up construct that, if followed to its logical conclusion, would mean that all postseason series would end in sweeps. However, it's even more idiotic than that, and is instead used by sports fans as a tautology to explain why Team A is winning and Team B is not.

hulk hogan meat shoes: Momentum does not exist from game to game. It lives within 9 innings, or 4 quarters or 3 periods.

This totally discounts any psychology in sports. Momentum is basically confidence, and a player's confience level at any one time can surely change how they play.

There are obvious times in games you can see a team or an individual who has a supreme confidence, or a team who just seems nervous in a given situation.

And this can go from game to game. A team could have a 3 game streak where they just can't hit and as you watch you can see it. You can see suddenly the team swinging at pitches out of the zone because they're pressing.

There's nothing full-proof about it. It can change on a dime.. it can be harmful, over-confidence, but you can't say it doesn't exist. There are too many games in too many sports that you can see a single play change a 24-0 football win into a 24-28 loss. You can see a team not have a single runner in scoring position all game and then score 5 in the 9th because of a single walk to lead off the inning.


Please show one analysis that supports this. If it exists it should be easy to prove.

I am skeptical, too often I see stats where a team goes up 3 games to 2 and they say the opposing team only has a 25% chance of winning. Which is what you would expect from random chance. I also believe there is a negative correlation between the winning percentage of the 5-10 games before entering the playoffs and playoff performance.
 
2012-10-05 06:35:33 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Please show one analysis that supports this. If it exists it should be easy to prove.


He can't prove it because of this line:

MugzyBrown: It can change on a dime..


As long as it can change at any second, it can be used to say anything. Score 5 runs in one inning, 7 in the next? MOMENTUM. Score 5 runs in one inning, then no more? THE MOMENTUM RAN OUT.

That doesn't mean momentum does or does not exist. But you can't use it to predict the future, and while you can try to use it to explain the past, there's really no difference between using "momentum" and simply saying "luck."

So I have no idea what good it is.
 
2012-10-06 01:16:32 AM

Uncle Pooky: tnpir:
I wouldn't worry. Considering how the Rangers have played over the last 30 days, I fully expect Joe Saunders, who has never won at Arlington and in fact has gotten his ass handed to him each time he pitches here, to pitch eight shutout innings while Darvish pitches seven to eight innings of 11-K, 1 BB, one run ball, and for the Orioles to win 1-0 or 2-1, with Josh Hamilton going 0-5 with four Ks.

/sound of wrists being slit
//goddammittohell...

While Hamilton could very well disappear in the game, I strongly doubt that everyone else will too. The Rangers have been to the past two postseasons, playing all the way through. The atmosphere will be nothing new to them, and they have the additional advantage of playing in front of the home crowd.

I'm certainly not discounting the way they've played over the last month - they tanked and collapsed, plain and simple. And baseball is a game where anything can happen. I'm certainly hoping that now it's postseason baseball, the Rangers will flip "on" whatever switch they need to, and play to their ability.


And of course, they massively failed once again.
 
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