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(WWNT Dothan)   Relying on the pollsters for your electoral college predictions? Not if you have an astrophysicist you can ask. Difficulty: he also runs one of the six BCS computers   (wwntradio.com) divider line 42
    More: Interesting, outliers, astronomers, Huntsville  
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2724 clicks; posted to Geek » on 03 Oct 2012 at 11:45 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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vpb [TotalFark]
2012-10-03 09:21:07 AM
"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican,"

It's springtime in America!
 
2012-10-03 11:47:58 AM
Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.
 
2012-10-03 11:48:32 AM
Of course, his BCS computer was trashed by Farkers for saying Oregon State is currently #1.

So Farkers don't respect astro-physicists and therefore science, I guess. Or they're just smarter than him.

I wonder which it is.
 
2012-10-03 11:50:57 AM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.



And Romney would be running, and/or winning? Because he's "good" and Obama is "bad"? That's your neutral take on the subject?

And this is because the media is dishonest? (Fox is honest though perhaps?) And the entertainment industry is behind all this?

Wow, you are challenged.
 
2012-10-03 11:53:49 AM
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections


WHOA the LAST TWO??? No way. That's impossible. No system could be that accurate!

"In '04, we only missed Hawaii."

Ok that's a little more impressive. Why didn't the journalist highlight this rather than "BOTH of the last TWO elections"
 
2012-10-03 11:56:26 AM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest unbiased media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


(takes troll bait)

There's nothing inherently dishonest about bias. In fact, whenever I see someone claiming to be unbiased, I generally assume they're lying. Or stupid. Or both.
 
2012-10-03 11:59:59 AM

Christian Bale: The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections


WHOA the LAST TWO??? No way. That's impossible. No system could be that accurate!

"In '04, we only missed Hawaii."

Ok that's a little more impressive. Why didn't the journalist highlight this rather than "BOTH of the last TWO elections"


Of more interest is when the accurate prediction occurred. Mr. Nate Silver's work is of interest because he includes the time remaining before the election as a part of his probability calculation.
 
2012-10-03 12:00:11 PM
This week, their method places Obama with 348 electoral votes. Governor Mitt Romney trails with 190. The only place Colley sees room for Romney to gain electoral votes without great difficulty would be North Carolina.

You know who else uses statistical techniques to determine the winner? (No, not Hitler)

growlersoftware.com
 
2012-10-03 12:01:34 PM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


i568.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-03 12:05:16 PM
"Colley looks at polls conducted within the last month. He then lines them up in order, from most in favor of Obama to most in favor of Romney. He circles the poll in the middle, or the median, and awards the state to the victor of that middle poll."

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Nate Silver uses the Monte Carlo method?

Different techniques. Similar results.
 
2012-10-03 12:13:23 PM

Christian Bale: Of course, his BCS computer was trashed by Farkers for saying Oregon State is currently #1.

So Farkers don't respect astro-physicists and therefore science, I guess. Or they're just smarter than him.

I wonder which it is.


Whoa, hang on there... None of us Beavers expect to stay there long, but you can give us a moment to shine for Christ's sake!
 
2012-10-03 12:18:12 PM

Chabash: Whoa, hang on there... None of us Beavers expect to stay there long, but you can give us a moment to shine for Christ's sake!


Rock on you shiny Beavers.
 
2012-10-03 12:19:42 PM

randomjsa: If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


Why does the entertainment industry need to be honest? I mean, the media I'll grant you. The highest rated media outlets in the country are dishonest as f*ck (and no surprise, they are almost all conservative-leaning media organizations), so we really could do with more honest media. But why would you expect, want, or demand the entertainment industry be honest?
 
2012-10-03 12:44:37 PM
Submitter: Relying on the pollsters [...]? Not if you have an astrophysicist [...]
TFA: "The way he measures poll data [...]"

So he is relying on the pollsters; he's just aggregating their statistics.
 
2012-10-03 12:45:22 PM
Another cool polling site run by a biophyicist: Princeton Election Consortium
 
2012-10-03 12:48:23 PM
Yes, because if anyone can run statistics that give you the determined outcome correctly every time, it is the BCS.
 
2012-10-03 12:51:33 PM
...therefore Nick Saban is automatically president, and "In God we Trust" will be replaced by "row tahd" on bills, and "geaux tigers" on coins.
 
2012-10-03 01:14:09 PM
There's gotta be some massive fraud that'll shave some points, surely.
 
2012-10-03 01:22:39 PM
Wow, 99 states out of 100 correct one month out. Will be very intersting to watch the returns and compare to the model.
 
2012-10-03 01:34:33 PM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


You remind me of the story of a bunch of parents watching their kids in a high school marching band. One parent leans in and whispers to another: "Look at my boy! He's the only one that's in step!"
 
2012-10-03 01:38:30 PM
"R-Money...I came to tell you... I have looked at all possible futures... and in every one, the result is the same. You have to lose."

static.tvfanatic.com
 
2012-10-03 01:39:31 PM

Phil Moskowitz: There's gotta be some massive fraud that'll shave some points, surely.


O yes... surrrrrrely :/

Also:

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


You live in a fantasy world.
 
2012-10-03 01:50:53 PM

impaler: Correct me if I'm wrong, but Nate Silver uses the Monte Carlo method?


You are correct. The technique pioneered (or at least most famously used) in the Manhattan project.

The more you knoooooooww.....
 
2012-10-03 01:55:57 PM
So he uses polls that are already pretty bad? Some of the polls are using data from the '08 election which had historic turnout. Does that mean we expect turnout to be identical? I sure don't.
 
2012-10-03 02:09:57 PM
UAH, that's my alma mater. Nice to see them make FARK for something besides a professor going postal.
 
2012-10-03 02:18:38 PM

beefoe: Wow, 99 states out of 100 correct one month out. Will be very intersting to watch the returns and compare to the model.


Even if this election cycle is off by 4 or 5 states, *and* all those missed predictions go to Romneys favor, that is still not going to be enough to swing the election to Mittens unless of those 4-5 states, two are California and New York.
 
2012-10-03 03:23:14 PM

beefoe: Wow, 99 states out of 100 correct one month out. Will be very intersting to watch the returns and compare to the model.


To be fair, this doesn't look like a very hard election to map out; North Carolina and Florida are probably going to be the two states that decide whether Silver runs the table. The Congressional elections are going to be where the real money is made this time around.
 
2012-10-03 03:29:13 PM
The funny thing is, here's where Silver is more credible than the rest of the media:

Silver is considering where the tipping-point states are and how things are going in them, but he's not acting as if they're tied all the time or even particularly toss-ups.

The rest of the media, meanwhile, is taking states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where the lead is getting into double digits and the ads have all been pulled because Obama has them locked up, and adamantly refusing to take them out of the toss-up/swing-state category. They're just walking back to the 270 mark from wherever it is the election actually is, and whatever the tipping-point states are, those are automatically swing states so as to drive up the ratings on election night. They're not. They're just not.
 
2012-10-03 03:58:52 PM

Gosling: The funny thing is, here's where Silver is more credible than the rest of the media:

Silver is considering where the tipping-point states are and how things are going in them, but he's not acting as if they're tied all the time or even particularly toss-ups.

The rest of the media, meanwhile, is taking states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where the lead is getting into double digits and the ads have all been pulled because Obama has them locked up, and adamantly refusing to take them out of the toss-up/swing-state category. They're just walking back to the 270 mark from wherever it is the election actually is, and whatever the tipping-point states are, those are automatically swing states so as to drive up the ratings on election night. They're not. They're just not.


Of course they are. It's just that they've ALREADY SWUNG.
 
2012-10-03 04:02:37 PM
This is just an attempt to convince people they do not need to go out and vote for their candidate of choice on November 7.
 
2012-10-03 04:03:31 PM

Gosling: The funny thing is, here's where Silver is more credible than the rest of the media:

Silver is considering where the tipping-point states are and how things are going in them, but he's not acting as if they're tied all the time or even particularly toss-ups.

The rest of the media, meanwhile, is taking states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where the lead is getting into double digits and the ads have all been pulled because Obama has them locked up, and adamantly refusing to take them out of the toss-up/swing-state category. They're just walking back to the 270 mark from wherever it is the election actually is, and whatever the tipping-point states are, those are automatically swing states so as to drive up the ratings on election night. They're not. They're just not.


This.

Penn and Michigan were not swing states to begin with. The media sure liked to pretend they were though.
 
2012-10-03 04:22:05 PM
I read that this morning on my local paper's website. The butthurt in the comments section was golden.
 
2012-10-03 04:44:28 PM
Who needs an astrophysicist when you have a Nate Silver?
 
2012-10-03 05:27:06 PM
Oh hey, another astrophysicist doing something not related to astrophysics. Neat!

/astrophysicist working in a non-astronomy field
 
2012-10-03 05:54:29 PM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


WOW you're stupid.
 
2012-10-03 06:31:39 PM

Christian Bale: The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections


WHOA the LAST TWO??? No way. That's impossible. No system could be that accurate!

"In '04, we only missed Hawaii."

Ok that's a little more impressive. Why didn't the journalist highlight this rather than "BOTH of the last TWO elections"


Really, they only "missed" Hawaii on a technicality. It was so obvious the state was going for Kerry that no one had bothered to take polls there.
 
2012-10-03 07:29:50 PM
I have a feeling my republican friends are going to be really, really pissed when they lose badly. They really think that Obama has no chance.

But I guess they are probably saying the same thing about me and the democrats odds.
 
2012-10-03 07:59:31 PM

Great Odins Raven: I have a feeling my republican friends are going to be really, really pissed when they lose badly. They really think that Obama has no chance.

But I guess they are probably saying the same thing about me and the democrats odds.


If the country is lucky they actually manage to not blame the loss on Romney and realize the party as a whole blew this one big time.

For the record, on paper Obama should be the easiest president to beat in the modern era. All you would have to do is not flee derping to the far right. Of course the republican party learned absolutely no lessons from 1996 and went and repeated the whole scenario over again.
 
2012-10-03 08:01:51 PM

zipdog: This is just an attempt to convince people they do not need to go out and vote for their candidate of choice on November 7.


Let us know how voting goes Nov. 7 for you.
 
2012-10-03 11:41:49 PM

randomjsa: Oh we know why Obama is in the position he is in and it's got nothing to do with how great he is or how 'bad' Romney is.

If we had an honest media and entertainment industry Obama would not even be running for reelection and he certainly wouldn't be winning.


"I'm intellectually lazy, and I, like, approve this message or whatever."
 
2012-10-04 02:22:31 AM
So our next president will by Oregon State?

I for one welcome, etc....
 
2012-10-04 05:29:54 PM

Christian Bale: The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections


WHOA the LAST TWO??? No way. That's impossible. No system could be that accurate!

"In '04, we only missed Hawaii."

Ok that's a little more impressive. Why didn't the journalist highlight this rather than "BOTH of the last TWO elections"


"In 2008, Colley and Gott came within two electoral votes of predicting totals."

Even more impressive.
 
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