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(RotoExperts)   Miguel Cabrera may win the AL Triple Crown but someone else in the AL had a better year. Wait... What?   (rotoexperts.com) divider line 612
    More: Interesting, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball MVP, AL Triple Crown, Miguel Cabrera, American League, MVP, fantasy, Carl Yastrzemski  
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2762 clicks; posted to Sports » on 02 Oct 2012 at 11:51 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-03 12:39:11 AM

DeWayne Mann: ChrisDe: I'm sure the specialization of relief pitchers, among other things, make it a much tougher achievement

How do you figure?

We're not talking about something like a .400 hitter, where you need to hit a specific amount.

There's always a leader in average, always a leader in RBI, always a leader in HR. Why would relievers prevent players from leading in all three, especially considering there's a strong connection between HR & RBI?

One possible explanation has to do with the increase in offense, particularly HR. If people are hitting more HR IN GENERAL, it stands to reason that it's less likely that the leader in average is the leader in HR.

But perhaps even more likely is something far simpler: expansion. More starting players means smaller likelihood that a player leads in HR & BA, which are not as strongly connected.

This all, of course, ignores that the Triple Crown is only the Triple Crown because some guys really liked it 100 years ago, but...

TheMatchHare: I honestly hadn't heard anyone suggest the Tigers were anything but a runaway favorite for the division this season before.

Yeah, the only thing that "surprised" people was how bad the team ERA was. Mostly because most people don't actually realize what ERA means...


People are much less surprised that they also are the worst team in the majors in unearned runs. But that Houston team is only one game back and they are the kind of plucky, never catch the ball when you can bobble it team that can put up four unearnies in a game.
 
2012-10-03 12:39:27 AM

The Bestest: uh oh.. Dodgers aren't going quietly into that cold night just yet


Dodgers-Giants games never do go quietly, do they? Especially when death (of the season) is on the line.

Damn it, I was supposed to process photos. I need to turn the game back on.
 
2012-10-03 12:41:55 AM
Oh, why did you try for 3, Mark Ellis?
 
2012-10-03 12:44:41 AM
wow.. Dodger's could've tied it just now.. Ellis hit a double and -very- stupidly tried to stretch it to three and got thrown out halfway to third.
Then Victorino tripled (legit) right after him.
 
2012-10-03 12:50:37 AM
..and we will have an AL West championship game at 3:35
 
2012-10-03 12:51:26 AM
And now my beloved A's have tied Texas for the AL West lead. Onward to the last day of the season!
 
2012-10-03 01:01:25 AM
Educated men understand that Mike Trout is the genetically superior physical specimen in this race.

In fact, it's not even a race. The Triple Crown is a simplistic stat invented to pacify simpletons of the lower class.
 
2012-10-03 01:04:35 AM

mc_madness: Educated men understand that Mike Trout is the genetically superior physical specimen in this race.

In fact, it's not even a race. The Triple Crown is a simplistic stat invented to pacify simpletons of the lower class.


This made me chuckle.

And then, somewhat oddly, wonder if cricket was considered a game for the lower class in the late 1800's. Because I don't know anything about cricket.

I think they use bats of some sort.
 
2012-10-03 01:07:31 AM
i182.photobucket.com

"Tennessee Williams, David Carradine, and the Texas Rangers."

*opens envelope*

"Name three choke artists."

It's coming, Texas. You know it's going to happen tomorrow.

i182.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-03 01:11:34 AM
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but if the A's win tomorrow, the Yanks lose and the Orioles lose, then the A's would be the #1 seed in the AL.

Yankees losing and Orioles winning would result in a one game playoff, which would give one team an extra win, wouldn't it?
 
2012-10-03 01:18:16 AM

tenton: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but if the A's win tomorrow, the Yanks lose and the Orioles lose, then the A's would be the #1 seed in the AL.

Yankees losing and Orioles winning would result in a one game playoff, which would give one team an extra win, wouldn't it?


Game 163s aren't counted in the standings for seeding purposes, but yes, a Yankees loss, regardless of anything else that happens, would give the A's the #1 if they win.. here.. I'll post the scenarios:

Yankees can win the AL East AND #1 seed with a win.
A Yankees loss and O's loss gives the Yankees the AL East and the #1 if the Rangers win, but the #2 if the A's win.
A Yankees loss and O's win forces a game 163 at Camden Yards on Thursday. Seeding is same as above for the Yankees, O's would be #2 regardless of Rangers/A's.
if the O's lose Wednesday's game, they will be the WC2 regardless of Rangers/A's, and must travel to Arlington/Oakland for the Wild Card game.
If the O's win on Wednesday, they will be WC1 (and host the Wild Card game) if the Yankees win.
If an AL East 163 occurs, the loser of that game will be the WC1.
 
2012-10-03 01:19:38 AM
Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.
 
2012-10-03 01:25:30 AM
Ethier actually got a hit against a lefty. Dodgers not going down without a fight.
 
2012-10-03 01:31:04 AM

tenton: Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.


See. If Ellis getting the sac bunt down were a 100% sure thing, it's MAYBE the right move. I guess it is barely.

Managers constantly act like a sac bunt is a sure thing.

Hey, guy who has two of your three rbi. Wanna be down 0-2? Enjoy!
 
2012-10-03 01:32:35 AM

Dafatone: tenton: Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.

See. If Ellis getting the sac bunt down were a 100% sure thing, it's MAYBE the right move. I guess it is barely.

Managers constantly act like a sac bunt is a sure thing.

Hey, guy who has two of your three rbi. Wanna be down 0-2? Enjoy!


Ellis is already the goat tonight for the stupid baserunning in the 7th, so may as well pile on.
 
2012-10-03 01:34:32 AM

The Bestest: Dafatone: tenton: Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.

See. If Ellis getting the sac bunt down were a 100% sure thing, it's MAYBE the right move. I guess it is barely.

Managers constantly act like a sac bunt is a sure thing.

Hey, guy who has two of your three rbi. Wanna be down 0-2? Enjoy!

Ellis is already the goat tonight for the stupid baserunning in the 7th, so may as well pile on.


Wasn't that Mark Ellis? This was AJ.

And it's Dee Gordon on 1st. You don't sac bunt a stolen base threat to 2nd.

You steal 2nd and sac to third, or just steal 2nd. Duh. It's not hard.
 
2012-10-03 01:34:56 AM
"I want you to feel like you're here, so we'll keep the talking to a minimum"

I love you Vin Scully
 
2012-10-03 01:34:59 AM

Dafatone: tenton: Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.

See. If Ellis getting the sac bunt down were a 100% sure thing, it's MAYBE the right move. I guess it is barely.

Managers constantly act like a sac bunt is a sure thing.

Hey, guy who has two of your three rbi. Wanna be down 0-2? Enjoy!


In fairness, the worst possible outcome there is a walk. And that's all Ellis is good at.
 
2012-10-03 01:35:32 AM
Mark Ellis, here's your chance at redemption.
 
2012-10-03 01:36:09 AM
oh, my fault, wrong Ellis.. stupid Dodgers and their more than one guy named Ellis
 
2012-10-03 01:36:42 AM
If Trout were less "Scrappy" and Cabrera were less "Hispanic" this would not be a topic of discussion.

/hate me if you want, but I am right. White sports fans love them some "scrappy"
 
2012-10-03 01:38:49 AM

I sound fat: White sports fans love them some "scrappy"


I...

but...

....what?

You do realize that the people beating the "Trout" drum the loudest are the guys who think David Eckstein was one of the most overrated players in history, yeah?
 
2012-10-03 01:40:35 AM
Well, that's that. Dodgers are now out.
 
2012-10-03 01:40:56 AM
..and thus ends the Red Sox Dodgers season
 
2012-10-03 01:40:58 AM
And that is why you don't put a hitter in an 0-2 hole when the guy on 1st can just steal second.
 
2012-10-03 01:41:49 AM

Dafatone: And that is why you don't put a hitter in an 0-2 hole when the guy on 1st can just steal second.


Why are you questioning Donny Baseball? Where were YOU when he toiled all those thankless years at 1st in the Bronx with a hurt back?
 
2012-10-03 01:43:07 AM

The Bestest: Dafatone: And that is why you don't put a hitter in an 0-2 hole when the guy on 1st can just steal second.

Why are you questioning Donny Baseball? Where were YOU when he toiled all those thankless years at 1st in the Bronx with a hurt back?


PERSONALLY, I was growing some sick sideburns.
 
2012-10-03 01:43:07 AM

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: tenton: Here we go...last 3 outs for the Dodgers tonight...this is their playoff lives.

See. If Ellis getting the sac bunt down were a 100% sure thing, it's MAYBE the right move. I guess it is barely.

Managers constantly act like a sac bunt is a sure thing.

Hey, guy who has two of your three rbi. Wanna be down 0-2? Enjoy!

In fairness, the worst possible outcome there is a walk. And that's all Ellis is good at.


Er... what?

I'm not terribly motivated here. I actually kinda dislike the Dodgers. I just need RBIs from AJ Ellis and no win for Zito for fantasy purposes.
 
2012-10-03 01:44:15 AM
Well, that settles the NL except for first and second seed.
Nats clinch #1 with a win or Reds loss, Reds take #1 with a win AND Nats loss.
 
2012-10-03 01:44:45 AM

Dafatone: Er... what?


Well, you see...

DeWayne Mann: I'm here to argue (and make stupid jokes)


This would be the latter.
 
2012-10-03 01:45:55 AM
Okay, I know this doesn't really matter, but...

RA Dickey has been pitching with a torn abdominal muscle since April. And he threw 30 more innings than pretty much everyone else in the NL. With a torn abdominal muscle.

Give the man his Cy Young.
 
2012-10-03 01:47:28 AM

Dafatone: Okay, I know this doesn't really matter, but...

RA Dickey has been pitching with a torn abdominal muscle since April. And he threw 30 more innings than pretty much everyone else in the NL. With a torn abdominal muscle.

Give the man his Cy Young.


He also struck out Sentimental Head Injury Guy on 3 pitches tonight. He's a heartless monster.
 
2012-10-03 01:47:57 AM

I sound fat: If Trout were less "Scrappy" and Cabrera were less "Hispanic" this would not be a topic of discussion.

/hate me if you want, but I am right. White sports fans love them some "scrappy"


If Trout had less pop and less speed and Cabrera had more glove and was fleet of foot, we also wouldn't be having this discussion.

/not everyone on Fark is white; way to be a racist
//and this doesn't even matter, because race has nothing to with it; batting numbers are close, both teams were in contention up until the end, the guy with the vastly superior D and baserunning is the one that should win. Regardless of the color of his skin
 
2012-10-03 01:50:27 AM

The Bestest: Dafatone: Okay, I know this doesn't really matter, but...

RA Dickey has been pitching with a torn abdominal muscle since April. And he threw 30 more innings than pretty much everyone else in the NL. With a torn abdominal muscle.

Give the man his Cy Young.

He also struck out Sentimental Head Injury Guy on 3 pitches tonight. He's a heartless monster.


I was thinking to myself that if he did nothing but groove fastballs to that guy, he'd lock up the Cy.

Apparently the new hot favorite is Craig Kimbrel. Craig Kimbrel's had an unbelievable year. RA Dickey has thrown approximately 3.8 TIMES as many innings as Kimbrel.

If Kimbrel is 3.8 times better in K/9, BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, ERA, etc, I'll consider him for the award.
 
2012-10-03 01:50:38 AM

Dafatone: And that is why you don't put a hitter in an 0-2 hole when the guy on 1st can just steal second.


Of course, they didn't put in Gordon until AFTER the strikeout. Hindsight is 20/20, but you should have put in Gordon, steal second and then if you insist on still bunting, bunt him to third.

I'm guessing Donny Ballgame didn't want to remove Ethier from the game, since 1 run would have tied it and that could have meant extra innings. With...I'm not sure who would have been playing right field then.
 
2012-10-03 01:52:30 AM

tenton: I'm not sure who would have been playing right field then.


Abreu, presumably.
 
2012-10-03 01:54:22 AM

DeWayne Mann: tenton: I'm not sure who would have been playing right field then.

Abreu, presumably.


Can the corpse of Bobby Abreu even move anymore? :P
 
2012-10-03 01:56:18 AM

tenton: DeWayne Mann: tenton: I'm not sure who would have been playing right field then.

Abreu, presumably.

Can the corpse of Bobby Abreu even move anymore? :P


When he was alive, he was afraid of the fence. Now that he's dead, he has no fear. None.
 
2012-10-03 01:56:23 AM

tenton: DeWayne Mann: tenton: I'm not sure who would have been playing right field then.

Abreu, presumably.

Can the corpse of Bobby Abreu even move anymore? :P


He's actually STARTED 43 games in the OF for the Dodgers. Only 1 in right, though...and he was pulled after 5.
 
2012-10-03 01:57:38 AM
Looks like the Dodgers do have one other OF on the roster (Alex Castellanos); not sure how good he is defensively.
 
2012-10-03 02:01:43 AM

tenton: Looks like the Dodgers do have one other OF on the roster (Alex Castellanos); not sure how good he is defensively.


In an EXTREMELY small sample size, UZR says "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"

Abreu has a -4.1 OF UZR in 377.2 IP.

Alex has a -2.1 OF UZR in 48 IP

And don't even ask about UZR/150

'Course, that's PROBABLY not accurate.

PROBABLY.
 
2012-10-03 02:33:09 AM
ppffffftt, fantasy sports. Seems like people care more about nerdy stats stuff these days than team loyalty and watching exciting games. Just when you thought there was no sinking below the level of heroin addict, you found out that guys dress up for sci-fi conventions. And then you found out the level below that was people who devote significant amounts of time and money to fantasy sports. And then you realized that you are on Fark, and your entire world asploded.
 
2012-10-03 07:56:49 AM

sigdiamond2000: I'm not calling anyone an out-an-out racist here, but if you don't think there's a double standard when it comes to Latino vs. white players, and you don't think there's a tinge of the age-old "Great White Hope" angle to this whole Trout vs. Cabrera thing, you're fooling yourself.


Yeah, Ichiro was such a f*cking honkey in 2001. What a white ASSHOLE.
 
2012-10-03 07:59:14 AM
In all honesty, I think Cabrera's late surge took people by surprise, but the biggest problem is that he's a drunk-driving farking dickweed piece of shiat.

People LOVED Sammy Sosa, even more than McGwire in many cases, until they realized he and Mark McGwire had injected enough performance enhancers to shoot a 3-year-old into puberty overnight.
 
2012-10-03 08:09:49 AM
I'll be honest for a second: if Ellsbury can lose an MVP (to a pitcher... who WAS NOT GREG MADDUX OR RANDY JOHNSON OR PEDRO MARTINEZ) regardless of his great late statistics because his team sucks in September, I have no problem whatsoever if Cabrera wins one because his team gets to the postseason and he has a good end of the year.
 
2012-10-03 09:56:14 AM

roc6783: Highlights of this thread:

1) Mystique trolls
2) DeWayne Mann's Grandma was Branch Rickey
3) Stats are the end all be all of baseball, but they leave it a soulless husk
4) Mystique troll repentance
5) Mystique troll derp double down
6) Killer Cars' cat is remarkably well spoken
7) We are gonna miss you baseball, come back soon


Apparently none of you sleep, so now I need to update these...

Highlights of this thread:

1) Mystique trolls
2) DeWayne Mann's Grandma was Branch Rickey
3) Stats are the end all be all of baseball, but they leave it a soulless husk
4) Mystique troll repentance
5) Mystique troll derp double down
6) Killer Cars' cat is remarkably well spoken
7) Crazy old guys have remarkable stories and fantastic drugs, also they lie, but in an endearing way
8) Small sample size matter when they support your argument, ignore them when they don't
9) You can't count my dreams, don't count anything
10) Count ALL THE THINGS
11) Dr. King's dream has almost come true, no matter your race, religion, creed, or gender, you are all equally racist
12) Winning the Triple Crown guarantees you the MVP, except when it doesn't, but it counts more now, even though it doesn't
13) Some actual games were played and the postseason is still not decided going into the final game of the regular season
14) We are gonna miss you baseball, come back soon

15) Feel free to add any themes I missed for people who don't want to read through ~600 comments of phenomenal
 
2012-10-03 11:07:50 AM

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: Hey, here's something for you. Keith Hernandez is widely regarded as the best defensive 1b ever, or very close to it. Why's his career dWAR (b-r) 0.6? Does 1B defense just not matter? Was he not that good? Something else?

Keep in mind, if you say he wasn't that good, I'll cry. At least Mattingly's at -6.8

I am by no means a dWAR expert. Fangraphs is a big fan of Hernandez, though, so he probably was pretty good.

In general, when it comes to dWAR, the best answer tends to be "it assumes a surprisingly high replacement level." So that's my best guess.


My first guess would be that 1B defense doesn't matter so much. Isn't about 95% of what a first baseman does stepping on the bag and catching a throw from another infielder? Which Jason Giambi can do almost as well as Keith Hernandez.

More broadly, that's why I thought that defensive stats were so much less meaningful than defensive stats -- there is less variance in fielding than hitting, so differences in defense are less significant, and harder to measure.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, though.
 
2012-10-03 11:08:50 AM
*defensive stats were so much less meaningful than offensive stats*
 
2012-10-03 11:53:03 AM
Trout and it's a no brainer. The main reason I keep hearing that Miggy should get it over him is because he made the playoffs and Trout didn't. But if that's the case, then you're handing out the MVP based on geography. Tigers are worse than the Rays and the Angels and have played much, much weaker competition. Not only that, but the Angels were .300 when Trout was brought up and have had the best record in the AL since.

Offensively, they're a wash. Value to the team, they're a wash. Defensively, Trout is one of the best in the league at his position and Cabrera (based on any metric that includes range) is one of the worst. Sorry...defense matters.

/Lived 33 of my 37 years in Michigan and a Tigers fan for all of them.
 
2012-10-03 01:01:18 PM

keypusher: My first guess would be that 1B defense doesn't matter so much. Isn't about 95% of what a first baseman does stepping on the bag and catching a throw from another infielder? Which Jason Giambi can do almost as well as Keith Hernandez.

More broadly, that's why I thought that defensive stats were so much less meaningful than defensive stats -- there is less variance in fielding than hitting, so differences in defense are less significant, and harder to measure.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, though.


Well, as I said, I'm by no means an expert on dWAR.

But the exact same page claims he's defensively worth 8 runs more than the average 1B per year. To a sane person, that should translate into .8 dWAR a year, because traditionally, a replacement level player is average defensively, and traditionally, 10 runs is a win.

So unless he played less than a season in his career, something's still fishy.

roc6783: Apparently none of you sleep,


What in the world is sleep?
 
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