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(RotoExperts)   Miguel Cabrera may win the AL Triple Crown but someone else in the AL had a better year. Wait... What?   (rotoexperts.com) divider line 612
    More: Interesting, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball MVP, AL Triple Crown, Miguel Cabrera, American League, MVP, fantasy, Carl Yastrzemski  
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2763 clicks; posted to Sports » on 02 Oct 2012 at 11:51 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-02 04:53:26 PM
In other news, gmail finally gave up on lumping all of my "fark new comments notification" emails into one conversation. Apparently, the max is 61.
 
2012-10-02 04:54:59 PM

FreakinB: You're basically throwing out all stats about anything ever, then.


Not stats that rely solely on anecdotes. You can always use them.
 
2012-10-02 04:55:56 PM
I am thinking we will have Co-MVPS this year the vote will split evenly between old school and new school writers. But then again I think David Price should win the Cy Young over Justin Verlander and I am a huge Tigers fan.
 
2012-10-02 04:56:24 PM

DeWayne Mann: thecpt: Why does this page show the Ks and Outs as minus and your link show them as positive?

Tango apparently likes to change up his terminology. In my chart, the parenthesis indicate negative. In this new charge, he just used negative signs.

thecpt: Also, I can't find the equation to see how the weights of GIDP or Fly outs are applied.

They're all lumped into "out" here. I THINK hardballtimes might have something like that, though.


Alright, I'll try and look through it tonight and see what I can find. I might have to actually whip out excel for it. I really do think there is something to my argument and I'll try using this equation and see if I can find the weights for what I was talking about. Thanks for the point in the right direction.
 
2012-10-02 04:58:24 PM

DeWayne Mann: He can't catch anymore? Then that's one overpayment on his contract.

Obviously, I don't expect him to catch every day, but they could easily work out a rotation where Cabrera plays more like, 50 games at 3rd.


And who would play 3b for the Tigers the other 110 games? Don Kelly? Brandon Inge?

Cabrera's career wRC+ at DH is 89. No thanks.

DeWayne Mann: You keep getting confused by "who should win" and "who the voters like"

Surely you realize those are not the same thing.


Which is what I've been saying since yesterday. But people keep coming and saying that there is no logical reason why Cabrera should win the MVP. Well, there are a few logical reasons, maybe none that are based on stats, but there are a few. The biggest reason why he should win the MVP is that a majority of writers will put a 1 next to his name on their ballots.
 
2012-10-02 05:00:03 PM

thecpt: Alright, I'll try and look through it tonight and see what I can find. I might have to actually whip out excel for it. I really do think there is something to my argument and I'll try using this equation and see if I can find the weights for what I was talking about. Thanks for the point in the right direction.


One more piece that might interest you would be the formula for wOBA (which you've seen the early, early stages of).

But, above all else, remember: when it comes to hitters & strikeouts, the past & the future are very very different...but easily confused. 

So, for instance, read this:

http://www.tangotiger.net/strikeout.html
 
2012-10-02 05:04:34 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: And who would play 3b for the Tigers the other 110 games? Don Kelly? Brandon Inge?


How about Nick Castellanos? We're talking about 2013, remember. It would be pushing him a little, but sometimes that works out just fine.

ignatius_crumbcake: Cabrera's career wRC+ at DH is 89.


Ok, you're officially a joke.

He has ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY TWO PLATE APPEARANCES AS A DH.

ignatius_crumbcake: . But people keep coming and saying that there is no logical reason why Cabrera should win the MVP. Well, there are a few logical reasons, maybe none that are based on stats, but there are a few.


Hey, what was the logical reason for Palmeiro winning the Gold Glove in 1999. Surely there was one, right?
 
2012-10-02 05:10:28 PM
Trout has had a great year, no doubt.

But by Thursday morning Cabrera may have stepped into the company of Legends.

For me it is all Cabrera if he pulls off the Triple Crown.
 
2012-10-02 05:11:11 PM

devioustrevor: Trout has had a great year, no doubt.

But by Thursday morning Cabrera may have stepped into the company of Legends.

For me it is all Cabrera if he pulls off the Triple Crown.


4 triple crown winners didn't win MVP.

Does that bother you?
 
2012-10-02 05:11:58 PM

Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: ***snip***
And, since this whole thing started over a discussion of a book that purports to do exactly that, is it not possible that if the study (and conclusions, if any) undertaken by that book were conducted in an appropriately thorough way, that one could draw useable and, yes, reliable information from it?


That's potato talk and doesn't account for intangibles.
 
2012-10-02 05:13:38 PM

roc6783: That's potato talk and doesn't account for intangibles.


Potatos, eh?

Thanks for reminding me to eat sometime.
 
2012-10-02 05:14:42 PM

DeWayne Mann: He can't catch anymore? Then that's one overpayment on his contract.


Please don't tell me you have watched Martinez and think he can catch.
 
2012-10-02 05:15:14 PM

roc6783: Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: Sandor at the Zoo: sab6300: ***snip***
And, since this whole thing started over a discussion of a book that purports to do exactly that, is it not possible that if the study (and conclusions, if any) undertaken by that book were conducted in an appropriately thorough way, that one could draw useable and, yes, reliable information from it?

That's potato talk and doesn't account for intangibles.


Hey, man, I'm a stats dork. Intangibles frighten and confuse me because they remind me that there is a world outside my mother's basement. Also, the suggestion that intangibles exist completely ruins the mental image I have of giant, anthropomorphic numbers running around the diamond.
 
2012-10-02 05:15:27 PM
Oh boy, this again.
 
2012-10-02 05:17:50 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: He can't catch anymore? Then that's one overpayment on his contract.

Please don't tell me you have watched Martinez and think he can catch.


I'm a Red Sox Fan, sooo....

And I called it an overpayment on his contract at the time it was signed. Had no desire to get into a bidding war over him. He was getting paid for good offensive production as a catcher, yet likely going to play a lot of 1B/DH, where his production is much closer to average for the position.

But he can ABSOLUTELY catch a decent number of games each year. Look at how the Rangers handle Napoli.
 
2012-10-02 05:19:12 PM

DeWayne Mann: How about Nick Castellanos? We're talking about 2013, remember. It would be pushing him a little, but sometimes that works out just fine.


You still have an everyday player sitting. Cabrera at DH, Castellanos at 3rd, Martinez at C, and Avila sitting. Cabrera at 3rd, Martinez at DH, Avila at C, and Castellanos sitting. Its 4 guys playing 3 positions. This is all assuming that Avila bounces back a little next year, but he was still a 2.5 WAR player this year.

Or, they keep Castellanos in the minors so he can play everyday and develop, and deal with shoddy defense at 3b until Martinez is gone and Prince becomes too fat for even 1b.

DeWayne Mann: He has ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY TWO PLATE APPEARANCES AS A DH.


So they should completely ignore a small sample size and force Cabrera to play a position he doesn't want to play? That sounds like a brilliant way to get the best results out of their best hitter!
 
2012-10-02 05:24:48 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: So they should completely ignore a small sample size


You can stop right here, because in general, the answer is yes. That's pretty much why we call it a small sample size.

ignatius_crumbcake: and force Cabrera to play a position he doesn't want to play?


Oh, you didn't stop. Huh.

Just so we're clear, is throwing a tantrum about positions a good intangible to have? MICHAEL YOUNG, MVP.

ignatius_crumbcake: That sounds like a brilliant way to get the best results out of their best hitter!


It's a good way to get the best results out of the team as a whole. I care slightly more about that than one individual player's offense, because, again, I CARE ABOUT THE WHOLE GAME.

ignatius_crumbcake: You still have an everyday player sitting.


Yep. Happens a lot to teams. Roster construction is rarely perfect.

Might be an argument against giving massive contracts to guys who are limited in what they can do, but I'm just a crazy stat guy who has never watched the game in his life.
 
2012-10-02 05:31:21 PM
Also, still waiting on the 99 Gold Glove defense.

Was it because of his mustache? That's pretty dang logical, amiright?
 
2012-10-02 05:31:59 PM
I don't feel like reading this whole thread, and I'm getting bored of the same debate over and over again. Let's change it.

Without talking about Trout or Cabrera specifically (as much as you can stand it) should the MVP be the best player over all or the player that did the most for their team? Heck, if you were able to vote for the MVP what criteria would you use? GO!
 
2012-10-02 05:33:49 PM

DeWayne Mann: ignatius_crumbcake: So they should completely ignore a small sample size

You can stop right here, because in general, the answer is yes. That's pretty much why we call it a small sample size.

ignatius_crumbcake: and force Cabrera to play a position he doesn't want to play?

Oh, you didn't stop. Huh.

Just so we're clear, is throwing a tantrum about positions a good intangible to have? MICHAEL YOUNG, MVP.

ignatius_crumbcake: That sounds like a brilliant way to get the best results out of their best hitter!

It's a good way to get the best results out of the team as a whole. I care slightly more about that than one individual player's offense, because, again, I CARE ABOUT THE WHOLE GAME.

ignatius_crumbcake: You still have an everyday player sitting.

Yep. Happens a lot to teams. Roster construction is rarely perfect.

Might be an argument against giving massive contracts to guys who are limited in what they can do, but I'm just a crazy stat guy who has never watched the game in his life.


That's cute.
 
2012-10-02 05:34:05 PM
WTF is up with this DeWayne Mann guy? Is he Mike Trout, or does he actually care more about the AL MVP than Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera combined?
 
2012-10-02 05:35:07 PM

DeWayne Mann: It's a good way to get the best results out of the team as a whole. I care slightly more about that than one individual player's offense, because, again, I CARE ABOUT THE WHOLE GAME.


You assume you can platoon players to different positions on a daily basis and get the same offensive production out of them. At some point you really do have to consider these are real people and not just numbers on a page. As Yogi Berra said, "Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical."
 
2012-10-02 05:35:58 PM

Nehllah: I don't feel like reading this whole thread, and I'm getting bored of the same debate over and over again. Let's change it.

Without talking about Trout or Cabrera specifically (as much as you can stand it) should the MVP be the best player over all or the player that did the most for their team? Heck, if you were able to vote for the MVP what criteria would you use? GO!


Best player overall. It's not that player's fault that the rest of their team sucks. Other sports work this way, although in other leagues, everyone makes the playoffs.
 
2012-10-02 05:38:44 PM

Slow To Return: WTF is up with this DeWayne Mann guy? Is he Mike Trout, or does he actually care more about the AL MVP than Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera combined?


Until proven otherwise I'm assuming he's a fantasy sports blogger/minor sports writer who's way too consumed in his job.
 
2012-10-02 05:40:21 PM

you have pee hands: sab6300: You're missing the point. No matter how many factors they included, there will still be more because they are endless! And to use this research to say Fielder made little impact on Miggy is silly. One could say, some trends point to little impact of protecting a hitter, but of course each situation is different so there is no way to know Fielders impact on Cabrera.

This is true for every situation where statistical analysis is used. It's why statistical analysis is done, to find patterns within all the noise.


100% agree. But its wrong to pretend that the results from that anaylsis is a complete factual depiction of reality.

But yet countless times stats nerds pretend that "answers" to abstract questions are absolute.
 
2012-10-02 05:41:37 PM

Nehllah: should the MVP be the best player over all or the player that did the most for their team?


In general, that's the same thing. You'd need a weird set of circumstances for it to be otherwise.

And in those circumstances, I'd still answer "best overall." They'd do the most for 29 other teams.

Slow To Return: WTF is up with this DeWayne Mann guy? Is he Mike Trout, or does he actually care more about the AL MVP than Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera combined?


Well, I care about it more than the people who actually vote on it, that's for sure.

ignatius_crumbcake: You assume you can platoon players to different positions on a daily basis and get the same offensive production out of them.


I don't think I said that.

Especially the part about offensive production.
 
2012-10-02 05:43:05 PM

DeWayne Mann: but I'm just a crazy stat guy who has never watched the game in his life.


I believe you've watched it. I'm not so sure you've played it at even a little league level.
 
2012-10-02 05:43:39 PM

DeWayne Mann:
Slow To Return: WTF is up with this DeWayne Mann guy? Is he Mike Trout, or does he actually care more about the AL MVP than Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera combined?

Well, I care about it more than the people who actually vote on it, that's for sure.


OOOO, I have a new angle on my theory. Recently fired sports writer and/or sports writer without a vote who's annoying (but probably better) co-worker has a vote!
 
2012-10-02 05:43:56 PM

Nehllah: Until proven otherwise I'm assuming he's a fantasy sports blogger/minor sports writer who's way too consumed in his job.


Nope and nope. The closest I get to writing about baseball is what I post here on fark (and a few other minor message boards, but that's pretty rare) and a twitter account which is 99% RTs of smarter writers than I.

sab6300: But yet countless times stats nerds pretend that "answers" to abstract questions are absolute.


They're more absolute than subjective anecdotes.
 
2012-10-02 05:43:57 PM

DeWayne Mann: You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: He can't catch anymore? Then that's one overpayment on his contract.

Please don't tell me you have watched Martinez and think he can catch.

I'm a Red Sox Fan, sooo....

And I called it an overpayment on his contract at the time it was signed. Had no desire to get into a bidding war over him. He was getting paid for good offensive production as a catcher, yet likely going to play a lot of 1B/DH, where his production is much closer to average for the position.

But he can ABSOLUTELY catch a decent number of games each year. Look at how the Rangers handle Napoli.


I would allow him to catch when Verlander pitches. He can hold on runners and very few people get on base.
 
2012-10-02 05:45:10 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: DeWayne Mann: but I'm just a crazy stat guy who has never watched the game in his life.

I believe you've watched it. I'm not so sure you've played it at even a little league level.


Yes, the fact that I can't hit means I can't know anything about the game.

Brilliant. You've cracked the case.
 
2012-10-02 05:46:10 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: I would allow him to catch when Verlander pitches. He can hold on runners and very few people get on base.


And Scherzer & Fister could probably qualify as well.
 
2012-10-02 05:56:47 PM

DeWayne Mann: Nehllah: Until proven otherwise I'm assuming he's a fantasy sports blogger/minor sports writer who's way too consumed in his job.

Nope and nope. The closest I get to writing about baseball is what I post here on fark (and a few other minor message boards, but that's pretty rare) and a twitter account which is 99% RTs of smarter writers than I.

sab6300: But yet countless times stats nerds pretend that "answers" to abstract questions are absolute.

They're more absolute than subjective anecdotes.


This depends on the question asked.

Question A: How many doubles did Miggy hit in dome night games?

Simple Answer using solely stats

Question B: What was Fielders impact on Miggys triple crown season.

Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?
 
2012-10-02 05:59:35 PM

sab6300: DeWayne Mann: Nehllah: ***snip***

Question B: What was Fielders impact on Miggys triple crown season.

Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?


No, since all of that information is irrelevant to the actual outcome.
 
2012-10-02 06:00:01 PM

sab6300: Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?


There's a few issues here, but primarily:

People, in general, are notoriously bad at both

1. Identifying
&
2. Explaining

the reasons for their success. There's studies and everything. Maybe even a few of those anecdotes you love.

So, no. That survey would not be more absolute.
 
2012-10-02 06:00:08 PM
DeWayne Mann: No, you don't know what OPS+ is. Good job.

Stuff it. You want to make the argument based on mathematically adjusted statistics that not even EVERY PUBLICATION can agree on how to adjust. You go ahead with that.
 
2012-10-02 06:02:13 PM

DeWayne Mann: ignatius_crumbcake: DeWayne Mann: but I'm just a crazy stat guy who has never watched the game in his life.

I believe you've watched it. I'm not so sure you've played it at even a little league level.

Yes, the fact that I can't hit means I can't know anything about the game.

Brilliant. You've cracked the case.


You assume that Cabrera could play DH and still hit like Miguel Cabrera when there is no evidence for it. The tiny amount of data we have shows he hits below average at DH.

Coming off the bench to hit cold is hard. It's really hard.
 
2012-10-02 06:02:39 PM

Daniels: DeWayne Mann: No, you don't know what OPS+ is. Good job.

Stuff it. You want to make the argument based on mathematically adjusted statistics that not even EVERY PUBLICATION can agree on how to adjust. You go ahead with that.


OPS+ is pretty much standard now. I don't know of anyone that is seriously trying to change it.

WAR has two different methodologies, but that doesn't make either one worthless.
 
2012-10-02 06:05:28 PM
Even if he doesn't win MVP, Trout is going to be HUGE in the playoffs this year.
 
2012-10-02 06:08:02 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: You assume that Cabrera could play DH and still hit like Miguel Cabrera when there is no evidence for it


Again, you really, REALLY like putting words in my mouth.

I believe what I said was it would be best for the team AS A WHOLE, and that I didn't care about the affect on ONE player's offense. Maybe he would get worse offensively, though I doubt it. I have no real idea, though...and neither do you.

ignatius_crumbcake: The tiny amount of data we have shows he hits below average at DH.


In 2006, Chris Shelton hit .345/.415/.833 with 10 HR in his first 94 plate appearances. As I recall, he went on to set the single season HR record.

The tiny amount of data you have is worthless. I have 6500 PA that says Miguel Cabrera hits very, very well. You have 140 PA that says he doesn't hit as well as a DH.

One of those matters a lot, lot more.
 
2012-10-02 06:11:58 PM

DeWayne Mann: sab6300: Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?

There's a few issues here, but primarily:

People, in general, are notoriously bad at both

1. Identifying
&
2. Explaining

the reasons for their success. There's studies and everything. Maybe even a few of those anecdotes you love.

So, no. That survey would not be more absolute.


Got it trust always trust the numbers. I'm sure the studies that prove the numbers are always better weren't generated by people that needed to validate their lives.
 
2012-10-02 06:15:41 PM

sab6300: Got it trust always trust the numbers.


When given a choice between

1. What actually happened
and
2. Stories about what someone says happened

Yes, I trust the former.

sab6300: I'm sure the studies that prove the numbers are always better weren't generated by people that needed to validate their lives.


Do you hate all statistical research, or what? I don't understand why this gets you so angry.
 
2012-10-02 06:20:47 PM

roc6783: sab6300: DeWayne Mann: Nehllah: ***snip***

Question B: What was Fielders impact on Miggys triple crown season.

Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?

No, since all of that information is irrelevant to the actual outcome.


The outcome doesn't matter. That's not the question.

And say what you will but if a large number of pitchers confirmed that they knew they couldn't pitch around Miggy as easy, and he said that he was seeing better pitches to drive, it wouldn't be too far out to infer that he had an impact.

Calculating that impact is impossible without a Delorean
 
2012-10-02 06:25:32 PM

DeWayne Mann: sab6300: Got it trust always trust the numbers.

When given a choice between

1. What actually happened
and
2. Stories about what someone says happened

Yes, I trust the former.

sab6300: I'm sure the studies that prove the numbers are always better weren't generated by people that needed to validate their lives.

Do you hate all statistical research, or what? I don't understand why this gets you so angry.


Lies, Damn Lies and statistics.
 
2012-10-02 06:25:58 PM

sab6300: The outcome doesn't matter. That's not the question.


Yeah, who cares about what actually happened? What some guys says he thinks happened is so much more important.
 
2012-10-02 06:26:58 PM

sab6300: Lies, Damn Lies and statistics.


Oh ho that's so clever! Never heard that one before.

So, yes. You hate all statistics. Good to know.
 
2012-10-02 06:29:20 PM

DeWayne Mann: sab6300: The outcome doesn't matter. That's not the question.

Yeah, who cares about what actually happened? What some guys says he thinks happened is so much more important.


The question is: what is Fielders impact?

There is no outcome!

And the answer is subjective, and I honestly think it bothers you that there isn't a stat for that question.
 
2012-10-02 06:30:53 PM

sab6300: DeWayne Mann: sab6300: The outcome doesn't matter. That's not the question.

Yeah, who cares about what actually happened? What some guys says he thinks happened is so much more important.

The question is: what is Fielders impact?

There is no outcome!

And the answer is subjective, and I honestly think it bothers you that there isn't a stat for that question.


He's not bothered, he's busy inventing one.
 
2012-10-02 06:31:11 PM

DeWayne Mann: sab6300: Lies, Damn Lies and statistics.

Oh ho that's so clever! Never heard that one before.

So, yes. You hate all statistics. Good to know.


Again it's not the stats I hate. It's the results people pull from the numbers that are often outside the scope of the question.
 
2012-10-02 06:31:33 PM

sab6300: roc6783: sab6300: DeWayne Mann: Nehllah: ***snip***

Question B: What was Fielders impact on Miggys triple crown season.

Much harder question. You could says that trends show a mild improvement for "protected"'players. But that doesn't answer the question. Outside the historical trends one could ask Cabrera how he felt with Fielder hitting behind him. And one could poll all the pitchers they faced and ask if it impacted their approach to pitching to Miggy. The results from this survey would be more absolute don't cha think?

No, since all of that information is irrelevant to the actual outcome.

The outcome doesn't matter. That's not the question.

And say what you will but if a large number of pitchers confirmed that they knew they couldn't pitch around Miggy as easy, and he said that he was seeing better pitches to drive, it wouldn't be too far out to infer that he had an impact.

Calculating that impact is impossible without a Delorean


WTF are you talking about? If there is no impact, than who hits behind him is irrelevant. If there is an impact, it gives the Tigers a better way to structure their lineup. How does what actually happened not give you a clearer picture of what is most likely to happen?
 
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