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(The New York Times)   269-269   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 192
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6872 clicks; posted to Politics » on 02 Oct 2012 at 1:04 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-02 09:49:43 AM
But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 - or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then we'd be left with the following map:

If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie.


So... assuming things go wrong, it'll tie. Helpful.
 
2012-10-02 09:51:16 AM
Nate Silver in his office yesterday:

"It appears that most people have taken my logical approach to polling and electoral math to heart for I am no longer the soothsayer of elections as I was in 2008. Hell, no one with half a brain even looks at national polling anymore. I need to make the sheep come back into my flock.....

I know! Let's create a map that shows a tie and then claim it's appearing more and more in our models. I'm sure no one will look at the rest of the data on my site that shows an Obama win at almost 80%, because that would really make me look bad."
 
2012-10-02 09:54:05 AM
What is that, like, a foursome?
 
2012-10-02 09:54:41 AM
I also love how it takes six paragraphs and a scary looking electoral map to get to this line:

Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely.

OOOGABOOOGABOOOGA.

HA! Just kidding.
 
2012-10-02 09:55:12 AM
This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.
 
2012-10-02 09:59:11 AM

James!: This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.


I'd like to hear his thoughts on the MLB AL MVP race. As a homer, I'd expect him to say Miguel, but as a stats guy I'd think he'd say Trout.
 
2012-10-02 10:00:47 AM
Well, if you take his "85%" line, that is where he is getting that map... everything where Obama has a currently 85% chance of winning he wins... everything below those, Romney picks up.

I'd say even having a 75-80% chance of winning right now is pretty strongly favoring Obama.
 
2012-10-02 10:01:22 AM
Gotta keep those ad dollars flowing!
 
2012-10-02 10:01:56 AM

WI241TH: James!: This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.

I'd like to hear his thoughts on the MLB AL MVP race. As a homer, I'd expect him to say Miguel, but as a stats guy I'd think he'd say Trout.


The thing is, someone like Nate isn't going to just go on "stats"... the idea of what Nate does is looking how historically people have voted, and use that as well, not just the players stats.
 
2012-10-02 10:03:37 AM
Just so you know he actually did the salad bar thing.
 
2012-10-02 10:04:53 AM
if there's a tie, the winner should be decided in a tag team match at Survivor Series.
 
2012-10-02 10:10:11 AM
Even boxing judges are saying "Come on, man"
 
2012-10-02 10:11:05 AM
Two can play at this game, Silver.....

This is what happens if Barack Obama phones it in the last 30 days: 275-263 Obama
If Mitt Romney releases Obama's REAL Birth Certificate: 332 - 206 Romney
If Red Dawn happens: 186 Obama, 176, Romney, 176, Oppressive Commie Overlords
If The South Shall Rise Again!: 345 Obama, 191, Romney, 2 Nebraska, pick a side!
 
2012-10-02 10:14:15 AM
Yep, there's the good ol' state of Maine, farking it up for everyone... :P
 
2012-10-02 10:16:07 AM
If we're lucky, it'll trigger a secession of the south from the north. North United States is best United States.
 
2012-10-02 10:16:59 AM

James!: Just so you know he actually did the salad bar thing.


Well, that settles that. I'm voting for Romney. He'll fix the salad bar topping issue!
 
2012-10-02 10:19:01 AM
If the Rapture is the October Surprise: 509 Godless Heathens aka Obama, 29 Florida.
 
2012-10-02 10:21:00 AM

dletter: The thing is, someone like Nate isn't going to just go on "stats"... the idea of what Nate does is looking how historically people have voted, and use that as well, not just the players stats.


I understand that's how he comes out with a prediction of who will win. I want to hear who he wants to win. He's a Tigers fan, but is a stats guy by trade, so I'm curious to see which side wins out, that's all.
 
2012-10-02 10:22:52 AM

Jackson Herring: What is that, like, a foursome?


I could check my hand book but that might be a double-Dutch rudder.
 
2012-10-02 10:32:29 AM

mrshowrules: Jackson Herring: What is that, like, a foursome?

I could check my hand book but that might be a double-Dutch rudder.



No, no, it's a Rusty Venture.
 
2012-10-02 10:54:20 AM

Sybarite: mrshowrules: Jackson Herring: What is that, like, a foursome?

I could check my hand book but that might be a double-Dutch rudder.


No, no, it's a Rusty Venture.



No, you are thinking of the Mormon Muddle.
 
2012-10-02 11:02:45 AM
FTFA: Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.
 
2012-10-02 11:09:51 AM

twobux: FTFA: Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.



Tha's like half!!!!
 
2012-10-02 11:10:58 AM

mrshowrules: Jackson Herring: What is that, like, a foursome?

I could check my hand book but that might be a double-Dutch rudder.


musi ques
i sew on bews
i pues a twos on que zat
pue zoo
my kizzer
pous zizzer ay zee
its all kizza
its always like
its all kizza
its always like
na sound
wa zee
wa zoom zoom ze
 
2012-10-02 11:13:31 AM

James!: This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.


Look, you've got to give the dude a bit of a pass here. There are only so many ways to write a "The National Polling Looks Closer Than The State-By-State Data" article.

I don't blame him for a bit of speculation.
 
2012-10-02 11:14:22 AM

ManateeGag: if there's a tie, the winner should be decided in a tag team match at Survivor Series.


Barack's Bombers; Obama, Biden, CM Punk, and Daniel Bryan vs Romney's Reavers: Romney, Ryan, The Gobbledygooker, and Doink.

/mid-match, Kane and Ron Paul try to interfere but everyone just ignores them
 
2012-10-02 11:15:12 AM
If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.
 
2012-10-02 11:17:52 AM

mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.


according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.
 
2012-10-02 11:20:04 AM

thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.


Yes, but there's a 43% chance of that 0.6% happening.
 
2012-10-02 11:21:48 AM

Gonz: James!: This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.

Look, you've got to give the dude a bit of a pass here. There are only so many ways to write a "The National Polling Looks Closer Than The State-By-State Data" article.

I don't blame him for a bit of speculation.


Yeah, for the last month it's been "Obama poll lead widening" over and over. Throw a little speculative fiction into the mix for a chuckle now and then to keep things interesting.
 
2012-10-02 11:22:48 AM

thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.


But TFA also said that's a 100% increase in the likelihood of it happening!
 
2012-10-02 11:23:07 AM

vernonFL: musi ques
i sew on bews
i pues a twos on que zat
pue zoo
my kizzer
pous zizzer ay zee
its all kizza
its always like
its all kizza
its always like
na sound
wa zee
wa zoom zoom ze


woah it's not cool to call out farkers who aren't in the thread yet
 
2012-10-02 11:25:04 AM
i want to see polling data for the scenario where after the first debate, obama and romney get to talking backstage and realize that they are madly in love with each-other and decide to drop out of the race and start a cozy little bed and breakfast somewhere together, leaving biden to run against ryan. why hasn't this situation been explored, nate?
 
2012-10-02 11:25:27 AM

BKITU: thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.

But TFA also said that's a 100% increase in the likelihood of it happening!


Mandatory:

raggedshirts.com
 
2012-10-02 11:27:59 AM

BKITU: Yeah, for the last month it's been "Obama poll lead widening" over and over


Which of course means he's a left-leaning guy trying to skew the election.... not a neutral guy just running stats.
 
2012-10-02 11:28:23 AM

BKITU: thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.

But TFA also said that's a 100% increase in the likelihood of it happening!


my god, if we can extrapolate that out and it keeps doubling every couple of weeks from now until the election, we're looking at a solid 5% chance. it is...inevitable.
 
2012-10-02 11:35:22 AM

dletter: BKITU: Yeah, for the last month it's been "Obama poll lead widening" over and over

Which of course means he's a left-leaning guy trying to skew the election.... not a neutral guy just running stats.


He uses facts and math, and publishes on the New York Times. Obvious Soros puppet.


thomps: BKITU: thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.

But TFA also said that's a 100% increase in the likelihood of it happening!

my god, if we can extrapolate that out and it keeps doubling every couple of weeks from now until the election, we're looking at a solid 5% chance. it is...inevitable.


i8.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-02 11:48:08 AM
The very fact that this could happen speaks very, very poorly about the way we elect presidents.
 
2012-10-02 11:51:04 AM

James!: This is today's episode of "Sometimes Nate Gets Bored".  Tune in next week for his explorations of salad bar topping poplularity.


He really hasn't had a whole lot to talk about. It's really been pretty boring race polling wise, pretty steady.
 
2012-10-02 11:52:17 AM

DamnYankees: The very fact that this could happen speaks very, very poorly about the way we elect presidents.


it's certainly an indictment on the failed policies of our current "president" as well.
 
2012-10-02 11:52:23 AM

WTF Indeed: Yes, but there's a 43% chance of that 0.6% happening.


True, but there's only a 23.5% chance of that 43% happening.
 
2012-10-02 11:53:12 AM

impaler: WTF Indeed: Yes, but there's a 43% chance of that 0.6% happening.

True, but there's only a 23.5% chance of that 43% happening.


Well, there's a 99.99% chance that Nate is totally wrong because he isn't unskewing his polls, so there.
 
2012-10-02 11:55:36 AM

GAT_00: impaler: WTF Indeed: Yes, but there's a 43% chance of that 0.6% happening.

True, but there's only a 23.5% chance of that 43% happening.

Well, there's a 99.99% chance that Nate is totally wrong because he isn't unskewing his polls, so there.


my biggest problem with nate is that when he does his state-by-state breakdowns he doesn't unskew the polls to reflect the real breakdown of americans. when he predicts the california results, for instance, he over-samples californians, who are notoriously wacko-libtards, instead of weighing in real americans like people from alabama. nice try mainstream media. nice try.
 
2012-10-02 11:56:39 AM
Here's what I want to know - what percentage would his model have given at this point in 2000 of Gore winning the popular vote and losing the electoral vote? Assuming that was as unlikely (I assume it would have been), people really shouldn't dismiss this stuff. I think if this happens one more time we'll have a serious constitutional crisis, especially if it goes in favor of the same party twice.
 
2012-10-02 11:57:37 AM
Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

i3.ytimg.com
 
2012-10-02 11:58:35 AM

GAT_00: impaler: WTF Indeed: Yes, but there's a 43% chance of that 0.6% happening.

True, but there's only a 23.5% chance of that 43% happening.

Well, there's a 99.99% chance that Nate is totally wrong because he isn't unskewing his polls, so there.


I heard there is a 34.7% chance of us reaching the .06% chance that Sarah Palin is automatically president too. I'm a little scared for that scenario.
 
2012-10-02 11:59:32 AM

DamnYankees: The very fact that this could happen speaks very, very poorly about the way we elect presidents.



We should let the replacement NFL refs break a tie.
 
2012-10-02 12:01:43 PM
pac12bias.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-10-02 12:03:05 PM

Marcus Aurelius: Gotta keep those ad dollars flowing!


He's got 35 more days of this stuff. There's going to be some filler.
 
2012-10-02 12:10:13 PM
There is a 87.52% chance I submitted this with a better headline
 
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