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(The New York Times)   269-269   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 192
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6872 clicks; posted to Politics » on 02 Oct 2012 at 1:04 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-02 12:17:26 PM

BKITU: Yeah, for the last month it's been "Obama poll lead widening" over and over. Throw a little speculative fiction into the mix for a chuckle now and then to keep things interesting.


Yes. I would count tfa as a successful troll.The GOP has shut down voter registration in five swing states because they got caught cheating. Neither thing in that sentence helps them. I think Mondale is going to give Mittens a thank you call on November 7.
 
2012-10-02 12:18:33 PM

cretinbob: There is a 87.52% chance I submitted this with a better headline


www.zeldauniverse.net
 
2012-10-02 12:33:56 PM

bdub77: If we're lucky, it'll trigger a secession of the south from the north. North United States is best United States.


I really don't want to have to move to the arctic wasteland that exists above the Mason-Dixon Line.
 
2012-10-02 12:57:25 PM
www.majhost.com
 
2012-10-02 01:07:54 PM
The tie is more likely, just still not very likely at all though. Oh, for you logic challenged FOX viewers, that totally means that it's a tie now.
 
2012-10-02 01:08:59 PM
FTFA: Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely.

Fun speculation is fun.
 
2012-10-02 01:10:09 PM
I just happened to notice the chance of a tie the day before (0.5%) - while today's chance is 0.6%! That's like a 20% increase in one day! Let's see 5x20 = 100..... zomg - by Friday a tie will become the only possibility!!!!
 
2012-10-02 01:10:21 PM
Awww. Poor Nate. Sucks having to generate fresh content every day, doesn't it, buddy?
 
2012-10-02 01:11:33 PM

WTF Indeed: Nate Silver in his office yesterday:

"It appears that most people have taken my logical approach to polling and electoral math to heart for I am no longer the soothsayer of elections as I was in 2008. Hell, no one with half a brain even looks at national polling anymore. I need to make the sheep come back into my flock.....

I know! Let's create a map that shows a tie and then claim it's appearing more and more in our models. I'm sure no one will look at the rest of the data on my site that shows an Obama win at almost 80%, because that would really make me look bad."


"It's boring to write 'Obama: still winning' every day for the next month...time for some theoreticals!"

BKITU: cretinbob: There is a 87.52% chance I submitted this with a better headline

[www.zeldauniverse.net image 399x417]


HEY! LISTEN!
 
2012-10-02 01:11:34 PM
There isnt enough popcorn in the world.
 
2012-10-02 01:11:54 PM
I love the gymnastics that would have to happen in the EC to make the most likely 269-269 tie happen. President Obama suddenly loses big leads in VA and Iowa. Mr. Obama somehow loses CO. Mr. Obama somehow loses one of the districts in ME.

The demographics are making it harder and harder for Republicans to win without outright cheating, and that warms the cockles of my heart.
 
2012-10-02 01:12:08 PM
In such a case, the election will; be decided by the faithless electors.
 
2012-10-02 01:13:05 PM

Holocaust Agnostic: There isnt enough popcorn in the world.


We're going to need a bigger laser
 
2012-10-02 01:13:42 PM
Extremely unlikely
 
2012-10-02 01:13:58 PM
Oh oh! It's election silly season already. Every election someone writes a story about a tie in the Electoral College and how it's going to be a crisis. All that tells me is that the election has already been decided.
 
2012-10-02 01:13:59 PM

andrewagill: In such a case, the election will; be decided by the faithless electors.


That would be utterly ridiculous, but possible.
 
2012-10-02 01:14:45 PM

thomps: BKITU: thomps: mrshowrules: If it's 269 to 269 there is a 90% chance that Romney is the next POTUS but there is only a 10% chance of that scenario.

according to tfa, there's only a 0.6% chance of that scenario.

But TFA also said that's a 100% increase in the likelihood of it happening!

my god, if we can extrapolate that out and it keeps doubling every couple of weeks from now until the election, we're looking at a solid 5% chance. it is...inevitable.


It..is...EVITABLE!
www.annuaire-web-france.com

// Rifftrax makes part 3 watchable like I never thought possible
 
2012-10-02 01:15:00 PM
bdub77:

pac12bias.files.wordpress.com


THIS
 
2012-10-02 01:15:16 PM

Bloody William: But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 - or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then we'd be left with the following map:

If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie.

So... assuming things go wrong, it'll tie. Helpful.


Yeah. IF something were to go wrong, it MIGHT be a tie! Which I guess is the same thing as OMFG! THEY'RE TIED!! IT'S A PHOTO-FINISH!!

And IF my aunt got a sex-change in the next six months I'd have two uncles by Christmas.
 
2012-10-02 01:15:50 PM

Smelly McUgly: I love the gymnastics that would have to happen in the EC to make the most likely 269-269 tie happen. President Obama suddenly loses big leads in VA and Iowa. Mr. Obama somehow loses CO. Mr. Obama somehow loses one of the districts in ME.

The demographics are making it harder and harder for Republicans to win without outright cheating, and that warms the cockles of my heart.


Difficulty: They are outright cheating.
 
2012-10-02 01:16:16 PM
tl;dr
Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.
 
2012-10-02 01:16:59 PM
Wow.

President Romney. That's going to take some getting used to.
 
2012-10-02 01:17:02 PM
Nate, you're better than this.

New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie

Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.

Still, this probability has roughly doubled from a few weeks ago, when the chances had been hovering at about 0.3 percent instead 
 
2012-10-02 01:17:22 PM
Poor Nate.

This article smacks of "We need to keep people interested!"
 
2012-10-02 01:17:39 PM
Yes, but what if South Carolina secedes from the Union before the election? What if Putin rears his head and annexes Alaska, yet the international community is split on the validity of said annexation? What if Todd Akin legitimately rapes the Secretary of State of Missouri, and all the votes get lost?

/hypotheticals are fun
 
2012-10-02 01:17:43 PM
"Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time."


So......no.
 
2012-10-02 01:18:17 PM
If believe that it's a 50/50 race and you happen to live in a free country (not America) that allows people to use their own money freely to bet on events, you can currently wager $100 to win $376 for a total return of $476 on a Romney win on PinnacleSports.com. Current limits are $10,000 so unless you're a 1%er it should be enough to get your blood flowing:

Pinnacle Election Odds

CNN.com has articles about how the race is a toss up. Look on their home page for "Poll: White House race is tied." Now NY Times has a trolling headline, and then you read the article and the chance is 0.6%.

For once I'd like a mainstream news outlet to come out with the truth. Something like "Romney is probably going to lose" because that's the actual status of the race at this point.
 
2012-10-02 01:19:03 PM
Subby's selective reading is selective
 
2012-10-02 01:19:30 PM
i3.ytimg.com
Ed: That's no way for a man to die.
Frank: Ah, you're right, Ed. A parachute not opening... that's a way to die. Getting caught in the gears of a combine... having your nuts bit off by a Laplander, that's the way I wanna go!

/just because
 
2012-10-02 01:20:16 PM

Dr Dreidel: Rifftrax makes part 3 watchable like I never thought possible


How can a movie that was never made be watchable?
 
2012-10-02 01:20:41 PM

PonceAlyosha: Smelly McUgly: I love the gymnastics that would have to happen in the EC to make the most likely 269-269 tie happen. President Obama suddenly loses big leads in VA and Iowa. Mr. Obama somehow loses CO. Mr. Obama somehow loses one of the districts in ME.

The demographics are making it harder and harder for Republicans to win without outright cheating, and that warms the cockles of my heart.

Difficulty: They are outright cheating.


They are trying to, anyway. Voter ID laws are being crippled, though. Let's see if Diebold can serve up screwjobs in six different states instead of just one like in 2004...I don't know if that's plausible.

Heck, the Republicans might have to actually kick out the racist, sexist, and hateful assholes in their party and try to win an election legitimately at some point in the next decade or two!
 
2012-10-02 01:21:17 PM
All elections are dead heats, for now and forever.

The media does not want to influence the outcome of any elected office by convincing the public to stay home or come out by declaring a landslide ahead of time, so they will always carry the narrative that all elections are close races, irrespective of reality.
 
2012-10-02 01:22:49 PM
So the headline is:

New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie, but the sidebar analysis (Updated October 1) gives Obama a 102 electoral vote advantage.

I'm sorry, why are people not laughed out of the room when they use the phrase "liberal media"? This entire election cycle has been about giving romney every benefit of the doubt in order to claim the race is "tight" or "a virtual tie".
 
2012-10-02 01:24:24 PM
Have you ever done electoral math....

calitreview.com

on weed
 
2012-10-02 01:25:01 PM

Lord_Baull: "Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time."


So......no.


But it MIGHT happen! So it COULD happen! So that's the same thing as IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN! Which means IT DID HAPPEN OMFG RIOTS CHAOS F*CKING IN THE STREET!!!
 
2012-10-02 01:25:52 PM
Listen guys, the media has been prepping for this election for over a year now. I'm sure that they've prepared many pieces in advance and put in a lot of hard work and long days.

If the politicians aren't able to keep this election close, then - well by god, somebody has to!
 
2012-10-02 01:26:57 PM
Math! How does it all work???
 
2012-10-02 01:28:51 PM

spelletrader: Listen guys, the media has been prepping for this election for over a year now. I'm sure that they've prepared many pieces in advance and put in a lot of hard work and long days.

If the politicians aren't able to keep this election close, then - well by god, somebody has to!


You're certainly right about some of that - first it was giant physical representations of the US, then computer graphics. I'm sure they have full blown green-screen setups so their anchors can use hand motions to slide states and electoral votes around.

Dammit they need to justify all that cost and calling the election at 8:30pm EST just is NOT going to be allowed.
 
2012-10-02 01:28:57 PM

FTA...

Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.
 
2012-10-02 01:29:41 PM

Gyrfalcon: Lord_Baull: "Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time."


So......no.

But it MIGHT happen! So it COULD happen! So that's the same thing as IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN! Which means IT DID HAPPEN OMFG RIOTS CHAOS F*CKING IN THE STREET!!!



Sounds like a sure fire Romney win, so I'll just stay at home on election day. All liberals should.
 
2012-10-02 01:30:40 PM

Karma Curmudgeon: Have you ever done electoral math....



on weed


Not fair! I'm still drinking my tea!! And now silently laugh with tears in my eyes and tea down the wrong way!
 
2012-10-02 01:32:09 PM

GAT_00: Dr Dreidel: Rifftrax makes part 3 watchable like I never thought possible

How can a movie that was never made be watchable?


Mike Nelson, Bill Corbett and Kevin Murphy had a Part 3 made just so they could lampoon it. Some people thought they were crazy to spend so much on the original cast, FX, etc, but they, in keeping with the "bad cinema" genre, skimped on plot, writing and subtlety to minimize their costs.

Same reason they helped Travolta get funding for Battlefield: Earth.
 
2012-10-02 01:32:40 PM

king of vegas: If believe that it's a 50/50 race and you happen to live in a free country (not America) that allows people to use their own money freely to bet on events, you can currently wager $100 to win $376 for a total return of $476 on a Romney win on PinnacleSports.com. Current limits are $10,000 so unless you're a 1%er it should be enough to get your blood flowing:

Pinnacle Election Odds

CNN.com has articles about how the race is a toss up. Look on their home page for "Poll: White House race is tied." Now NY Times has a trolling headline, and then you read the article and the chance is 0.6%.

For once I'd like a mainstream news outlet to come out with the truth. Something like "Romney is probably going to lose" because that's the actual status of the race at this point.


I wonder if they are giving odds on a 269-269 tie.... if they are good enough odds, might be worth a sawbuck.
 
2012-10-02 01:33:33 PM
Mr. Silver, I am disappoint. You've got a map, both for November and now-cast showing Obama most likely winning NV, CO, FL, OH, IA, and VA. These states have been growing bluer and bluer throughout the last 6 weeks, and time is running out for Romney. At the same time you've got a theoretical map in which Obama manages to lose all six of those states with 35 days remaining, and you speculate on that. Don't give into the ad-revenue driven hyperbolic shiat. Keep a good product and you'll keep people showing up at your site. You've been making money for 4 years without giving into the corporate pressure for short-term profit at the expense of your dignity and long-term prestige. Don't give up now; you don't want to become another windbag.
 
2012-10-02 01:38:00 PM
To sixty-nine or not to sixty-nine, that is the question.
 
2012-10-02 01:38:09 PM
cdn.bleacherreport.net
Usually you pay double for that kind of action, Cotton.
 
2012-10-02 01:38:34 PM

Bloody William: But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 - or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then we'd be left with the following map:

If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie.

So... assuming things go wrong, it'll tie. Helpful.


But suppose a meteor hits florida, wiping it off the map, but the electoral votes remain, as do out of state absentee balloters....

But suppose China and the US ally in the greatest war mankind has ever known in an effort to stop the Kilrathi and kill their furry sympathizers....

Seriously though, odds of this are probably running about the same as lotto tickets right now, that is to say, they're so small that it's not worth thinking about.
 
2012-10-02 01:39:06 PM

Don't Troll Me Bro!: Mr. Silver, I am disappoint. You've got a map, both for November and now-cast showing Obama most likely winning NV, CO, FL, OH, IA, and VA. These states have been growing bluer and bluer throughout the last 6 weeks, and time is running out for Romney. At the same time you've got a theoretical map in which Obama manages to lose all six of those states with 35 days remaining, and you speculate on that. Don't give into the ad-revenue driven hyperbolic shiat. Keep a good product and you'll keep people showing up at your site. You've been making money for 4 years without giving into the corporate pressure for short-term profit at the expense of your dignity and long-term prestige. Don't give up now; you don't want to become another windbag.


You should probably put that in the comments on his site. Or maybe in an email. He could really stand to hear it.
 
2012-10-02 01:41:55 PM

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: Don't Troll Me Bro!: Mr. Silver, I am disappoint. You've got a map, both for November and now-cast showing Obama most likely winning NV, CO, FL, OH, IA, and VA. These states have been growing bluer and bluer throughout the last 6 weeks, and time is running out for Romney. At the same time you've got a theoretical map in which Obama manages to lose all six of those states with 35 days remaining, and you speculate on that. Don't give into the ad-revenue driven hyperbolic shiat. Keep a good product and you'll keep people showing up at your site. You've been making money for 4 years without giving into the corporate pressure for short-term profit at the expense of your dignity and long-term prestige. Don't give up now; you don't want to become another windbag.

You should probably put that in the comments on his site. Or maybe in an email. He could really stand to hear it.


NYT bought his blog. They demand lots of content no matter what. You'll get stuff like this now on occasion. 95% of what he does is still excellent.
 
2012-10-02 01:42:00 PM
Why don't we ensure the electoral college is always an uneven number?
 
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