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(Some Bookmakers)   When I want an unbiased opinion on who will win, I ask an expert. . . . Phil, my bookie   (oddschecker.com) divider line 55
    More: Obvious, human beings, Evan Bayh, Chuck Hagel, Mark Warner, Bill Frist, Sam Brownback, Tim Kaine, Thaddeus McCotter  
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2569 clicks; posted to Politics » on 28 Sep 2012 at 1:26 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-28 08:46:53 AM
People who need to be accurate often are.
 
2012-09-28 08:50:43 AM

ghare: People who need to be accurate often are.


Yeah. In that business, being partisan just doesn't pay.
 
2012-09-28 10:22:04 AM

St_Francis_P: ghare: People who need to be accurate often are.

Yeah. In that business, being partisan just doesn't pay.


My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?
 
2012-09-28 10:26:19 AM

Coolfusis: St_Francis_P: ghare: People who need to be accurate often are.

Yeah. In that business, being partisan just doesn't pay.

My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?


He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.
 
2012-09-28 10:29:07 AM

St_Francis_P: He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.


See, that's what a nice, respectable Republican man would do. He's definitely not avoiding the wager just because he knows that what he chooses to believe is not in line with reality.
 
2012-09-28 11:15:40 AM
I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link
 
2012-09-28 11:22:10 AM

incendi: St_Francis_P: He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.

See, that's what a nice, respectable Republican man would do. He's definitely not avoiding the wager just because he knows that what he chooses to believe is not in line with reality.


I've offered cash bets to all my conservative friends, but they've all found reasons why they don't want to take my easy money... I extend that cash offer in TF to any of the Fark trolls.
 
2012-09-28 12:22:46 PM

St_Francis_P: Coolfusis: St_Francis_P: ghare: People who need to be accurate often are.

Yeah. In that business, being partisan just doesn't pay.

My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?

He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.


He said that if Obama is elected, he'll move to Belize. He hasn't renewed a passport or bought any tickets. I'm confused - does that mean he's counting on Romney winning, or he's just gonna live here if he doesn't.
 
2012-09-28 12:33:08 PM

Coolfusis: My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?


Just because I'm curious, does he know what four states Obama is going to win? I mean, CA and NY are obvious, right? What are the other two?

Also ask him why Romney (from what I've heard here on TF) isn't even advertising in PA anymore.
 
2012-09-28 12:40:48 PM

dramboxf: Coolfusis: My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?

Just because I'm curious, does he know what four states Obama is going to win? I mean, CA and NY are obvious, right? What are the other two?

Also ask him why Romney (from what I've heard here on TF) isn't even advertising in PA anymore.


If I recall, it was NY, Cali, Nevada (I think something about Reid rigging it), and Illinois (I'm guessing because of Chicago).
 
2012-09-28 12:44:13 PM

Coolfusis: dramboxf: Coolfusis: My grandfather insists that Obama won't even take 5 states (based on his own "calculations"), but when I tell him there's money to be made if he's that sure, he never goes for it. I wonder why?

Just because I'm curious, does he know what four states Obama is going to win? I mean, CA and NY are obvious, right? What are the other two?

Also ask him why Romney (from what I've heard here on TF) isn't even advertising in PA anymore.

If I recall, it was NY, Cali, Nevada (I think something about Reid rigging it), and Illinois (I'm guessing because of Chicago).


He also rattled off a list of states that "might, if he's lucky" (come to think of it, Cali might have been on that list, not the "for sure" states)
 
2012-09-28 12:54:32 PM

Coolfusis: He also rattled off a list of states that "might, if he's lucky" (come to think of it, Cali might have been on that list, not the "for sure" states)


If I might ask, how old is grandpa?

And what do you think will happen when Obama hands the smackdown I'm almost certain is going to occur? If the election were held TODAY, Nate Silver gives Romney a 2.2% chance of winning.

2.2%.

I think even Mondale in 84 had better numbers five weeks out. And he *promised* to raise taxes.
 
2012-09-28 01:19:56 PM
Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?
 
2012-09-28 01:24:03 PM

ghare: People who need to be accurate often are.



Actually odds are a terrible way to predict accurately.  My comment aside not knowing the exact details... I do know one thing... odds are only there to balance the books, so the bookie never loses.
 
If an inordinate amount of Romney supporters placed bets on him, the bookie would make him the favorite.  The bookie takes a percentage off the top, and makes everything else even.
 
Its why I hate people mentioning them in sports discussions.  Sports betting is notoriously inaccurate.  Tons of people put "fun" bets on their team.  Personally, any year I'm in Vegas I put $20-ish on my White Sox to win the World Series, no matter how good they are.  Just for fun.
 
Now my $20 is meaningless in the scope of billions of dollars... but you can imagine the line for a nationally popular team like the Cubs being quite inaccurate.
 
2012-09-28 01:31:04 PM

dramboxf: Coolfusis: He also rattled off a list of states that "might, if he's lucky" (come to think of it, Cali might have been on that list, not the "for sure" states)

If I might ask, how old is grandpa?

And what do you think will happen when Obama hands the smackdown I'm almost certain is going to occur? If the election were held TODAY, Nate Silver gives Romney a 2.2% chance of winning.

2.2%.

I think even Mondale in 84 had better numbers five weeks out. And he *promised* to raise taxes.


Closing on 70 in a hurry. I think he'll go right back to claiming that the people voted him in because of "white guilt" and that Acorn/whathaveyou rigged the elections. He's not a dumb man, but I think the misinformation is just so ingrained into his mind that, to him, he's being perfectly rational.
 
2012-09-28 01:37:48 PM

brianbankerus: incendi: St_Francis_P: He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.

See, that's what a nice, respectable Republican man would do. He's definitely not avoiding the wager just because he knows that what he chooses to believe is not in line with reality.

I've offered cash bets to all my conservative friends, but they've all found reasons why they don't want to take my easy money... I extend that cash offer in TF to any of the Fark trolls.


I tried to bet Romney $10K that he'd lose, but he hasn't responded to my email yet.
 
2012-09-28 01:40:20 PM

brianbankerus: incendi: St_Francis_P: He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.

See, that's what a nice, respectable Republican man would do. He's definitely not avoiding the wager just because he knows that what he chooses to believe is not in line with reality.

I've offered cash bets to all my conservative friends, but they've all found reasons why they don't want to take my easy money... I extend that cash offer in TF to any of the Fark trolls.


I doubt you'll get any takers. Most of Fark's Independents, excepting a few bots, seem to have scurried off as of late. You might catch a few right after the first debate though (strategic thinking).
 
2012-09-28 01:41:00 PM

downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?


I'd like to know too. Does 1/5 mean put down 5, get 5+1=6 back if he wins? That's what I'm guessing. Hey, triple your money with Rmoney if you are so sure!
 
2012-09-28 01:41:26 PM

downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?


The latter. For every dollar bet on Obama, the return is $0.20. For every dollar bet on Rmoney, the return is $3.33.

Those are some long odds...
 
2012-09-28 01:46:04 PM

KarmicDisaster: downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?

I'd like to know too. Does 1/5 mean put down 5, get 5+1=6 back if he wins? That's what I'm guessing. Hey, triple your money with Rmoney if you are so sure!


The first number is usually the player's contribution to the pot, while the second number is the book's contribution. It can vary, however, which is why odds are usually expressed as +200 or -110, to be clearer (plus, gamblers hate fractions)
 
2012-09-28 01:48:20 PM

OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link


I had heard of it but never looked into it. So if I understand correctly:

Link


Means I can "buy" a "yes" share on Obama and if he wins the election I get $10?

Is that right?
 
2012-09-28 01:48:30 PM

downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?


It is short hand for the odds are 10 to 3, meaning that for every 3 dollars you put down you will get 10 dollars back. A 1/5 is bad odds, for you must risk butting down 5 dollars to get 1 dollar back.
 
2012-09-28 01:54:52 PM

OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link


Its interesting that there are some combinations that can guarantee you a win. For example if you buy all the combinations of the house/senate its relatively cheaper than $10. I'm tempted to buy a bunch of the D+D+D, it could happen...
 
2012-09-28 02:00:50 PM
If I'm reading this correctly, and it's likely that I'm not since I know nothing about betting odds, it looks to me like they're giving more or less exactly the same odds as Nate Silver for the President - Nov. 6 forecast. About 80/20?
 
2012-09-28 02:11:09 PM

xrayspx: If I'm reading this correctly, and it's likely that I'm not since I know nothing about betting odds, it looks to me like they're giving more or less exactly the same odds as Nate Silver for the President - Nov. 6 forecast. About 80/20?


More or less.
 
2012-09-28 02:21:13 PM
I popped over to an American Thinker (ugh) thread.

For everyone that's certain Romney will win - get over to Intrade and buy shares in Romney! People have been dumping Romney stock like it's a certain loser. You could make a LOT of money in a few weeks.

Put your money where your mouth is. Unless you're only certain when you're on a right-wing website...


Let's see if there are any responses.
 
2012-09-28 02:25:13 PM
I sent this same link to a dick I was arguing with on that day last week when one poll had Romney and Obama even and he was crowing about how Obama couldn't win.
 
2012-09-28 02:40:51 PM

OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link


Can you short sell there as well? There is no way the Dems will control the House and that's going for 27% (sorry but a GOP wave election in a redistricting year means we'll probably have to deal with them for a decade or have major demographic shifts)
 
2012-09-28 02:41:02 PM

rufus-t-firefly: I popped over to an American Thinker (ugh) thread.

For everyone that's certain Romney will win - get over to Intrade and buy shares in Romney! People have been dumping Romney stock like it's a certain loser. You could make a LOT of money in a few weeks.

Put your money where your mouth is. Unless you're only certain when you're on a right-wing website...

Let's see if there are any responses.


I've been holding off till the odds peaked. Tonight I'll snap up some bets on it.
 
2012-09-28 02:47:12 PM

Lupine Chemist: Can you short sell there as well? There is no way the Dems will control the House and that's going for 27% (sorry but a GOP wave election in a redistricting year means we'll probably have to deal with them for a decade or have major demographic shifts)


Yes sir, you can!
 
2012-09-28 02:48:37 PM

sonnyboy11: brianbankerus: incendi: St_Francis_P: He doesn't want to take advantage of suckers, probably.

See, that's what a nice, respectable Republican man would do. He's definitely not avoiding the wager just because he knows that what he chooses to believe is not in line with reality.

I've offered cash bets to all my conservative friends, but they've all found reasons why they don't want to take my easy money... I extend that cash offer in TF to any of the Fark trolls.

I doubt you'll get any takers. Most of Fark's Independents, excepting a few bots, seem to have scurried off as of late. You might catch a few right after the first debate though (strategic thinking).


It's just, I think, that they get tired of hearing the same bullshiat.

Nothing said on Fark is going to influence the election one bit.
 
2012-09-28 02:49:43 PM

Just Another OC Homeless Guy: It's just, I think, that they get tired of hearing the same bullshiat.


They sure never seemed to get tired of spouting it.
 
2012-09-28 02:54:35 PM
Having bet 500$ on the election, I'm really getting a kick.
 
2012-09-28 03:14:05 PM

MindStalker: OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link

Its interesting that there are some combinations that can guarantee you a win. For example if you buy all the combinations of the house/senate its relatively cheaper than $10. I'm tempted to buy a bunch of the D+D+D, it could happen...


I didn't look at your scenario specifically but yes, there are some arbitrage opportunities due to the low volume of trades for some bets. I assume there are some limits to how much you can have in your account (so your guaranteed win may not be worth the effort) but I'm not sure.
 
2012-09-28 03:20:15 PM

OtherBrotherDarryl: MindStalker: OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link

Its interesting that there are some combinations that can guarantee you a win. For example if you buy all the combinations of the house/senate its relatively cheaper than $10. I'm tempted to buy a bunch of the D+D+D, it could happen...

I didn't look at your scenario specifically but yes, there are some arbitrage opportunities due to the low volume of trades for some bets. I assume there are some limits to how much you can have in your account (so your guaranteed win may not be worth the effort) but I'm not sure.


...or maybe not. I saw a note in the rules about how Intrade may, at their discretion, pay interest to accounts over $25K.
 
2012-09-28 03:21:38 PM

Slaves2Darkness: downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?

It is short hand for the odds are 10 to 3, meaning that for every 3 dollars you put down you will get 10 dollars back. A 1/5 is bad odds, for you must risk butting down 5 dollars to get 1 dollar back.


No, you have it backwards. In this scenario if you put 10$ down on Romney, and he won, you would get 13$ back. If you put 5$ down on Obama, and he won, you would get 6$ back
 
2012-09-28 03:31:37 PM

amoral: Slaves2Darkness: downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?

It is short hand for the odds are 10 to 3, meaning that for every 3 dollars you put down you will get 10 dollars back. A 1/5 is bad odds, for you must risk butting down 5 dollars to get 1 dollar back.

No, you have it backwards. In this scenario if you put 10$ down on Romney, and he won, you would get 13$ back. If you put 5$ down on Obama, and he won, you would get 6$ back


You have the 5-6 right. But you have the Romney one wrong. Romney is a long-shot, where Obama is favored. You get 3.33... for every 1 you bet on Romney.

10/3 means 10 house / 3 bettor - for a win of $13 at a risk of $3.

1/5 means a 1 house / 5 bettor - for a win of $6 at a risk of $5.

You're doing one right, then flipping the logic for the other.
 
2012-09-28 03:33:15 PM

amoral: Slaves2Darkness: downstairs: Can someone explain what the odds mean when the first number is higher than the second?
 
Romney is 10/3 in one of them.
 
I don't gamble, but usually odds has the smaller number first.  Obama is 1/5.  That makes sense to me.
 
Actually, now that I think about it... I don't even know what that means.
 
A. Put down $1 and get $6 back (5x your bet, plus your bet back)
 
B. Put down $5 and get $6 back?

It is short hand for the odds are 10 to 3, meaning that for every 3 dollars you put down you will get 10 dollars back. A 1/5 is bad odds, for you must risk butting down 5 dollars to get 1 dollar back.

No, you have it backwards. In this scenario if you put 10$ down on Romney, and he won, you would get 13$ back. If you put 5$ down on Obama, and he won, you would get 6$ back


I think most betting odds are "odds against". So 10/3 odds for Romney to win means a $3 bet profits $10 if he wins.
 
2012-09-28 03:34:14 PM

OtherBrotherDarryl: MindStalker: OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link

Its interesting that there are some combinations that can guarantee you a win. For example if you buy all the combinations of the house/senate its relatively cheaper than $10. I'm tempted to buy a bunch of the D+D+D, it could happen...

I didn't look at your scenario specifically but yes, there are some arbitrage opportunities due to the low volume of trades for some bets. I assume there are some limits to how much you can have in your account (so your guaranteed win may not be worth the effort) but I'm not sure.


Example:

R Pres + R Senate + R house = $1.00 (Really?)
R pres + R Senate + D house = $.02
R Pres + D Senate + R house = $.40
R Pres + D Senate + D house = $.20

D Pres + R Senate + R house = $.47
D pres + R Senate + D house = $.09
D Pres + D Senate + R house = $.60
D Pres + D Senate + D house = $1.40

For a total of $4.18

So if you buy one share of each. One outcome is going to happen. You spent $4.18 and settle at $10.00.

What am I missing?
 
2012-09-28 03:40:05 PM

jst3p: What am I missing?


Are you sure you're reading the costs right? Looks like you misread the DDR cost - $6.61, not 0.60.

That brings you up to $10.18.

Plus there's the "any other combination" - such as split Senate - 0.45 - bringing you up over $10.50.
 
2012-09-28 03:44:31 PM

EighthDay: Are you sure you're reading the costs right? Looks like you misread the DDR cost - $6.61, not 0.60.


I am always messing up some mundane detail!


/thanks, I am an idiot.
 
2012-09-28 04:16:19 PM

dramboxf: Also ask him why Romney (from what I've heard here on TF) isn't even advertising in PA anymore.


This is kinda true. The "REPUBLICAN PARTY" is advertising in PA, and in Philly with trollish billboards that just say: "OBAMA SUPPORTS GAY MARRIAGE AND ABORTION. DO YOU?". Real effective message.
 
2012-09-28 04:25:23 PM
Serious question:

What did the odds look like for McCain at this stage in the campaign back in '08...?
 
2012-09-28 04:29:07 PM

incendi: Just Another OC Homeless Guy: It's just, I think, that they get tired of hearing the same bullshiat.

They sure never seemed to get tired of spouting it.


Pretty sure some of them get paid to do it. Like those Internet opinion-makers in the PRC.

This is, I think, pretty common, and extends to more than the Internet. Met a guy once who was on some lib foundation's payroll, just to agitate and break things when there was a ruckus (think Globalism conferences). When not doing that he was shelved in a "group home" along with the other tools and kept in drugs. Sweet. The foundation is tax-exempt; gets government (i.e.: taxpayer paid) grants to operate, and runs a covert agit-prop operation.
 
2012-09-28 04:46:58 PM
So, if I put $100 on Romney to win, on intrade, and he actually wins, how much money would I get to console myself with?
 
2012-09-28 04:54:39 PM

orezona: Serious question:

What did the odds look like for McCain at this stage in the campaign back in '08...?


Short version- kinda 50/50 until he suspended his campaign to "focus on the economy." The public also became aware of just how big of an idiot Palin was at around the same time, and that's when the numbers shifted swiftly and strongly towards Obama.
 
2012-09-28 05:06:06 PM

RyogaM: So, if I put $100 on Romney to win, on intrade, and he actually wins, how much money would I get to console myself with?


To buy Mittens:
$100/$2.12*$10-$100= $371.70 profit Of course this assumes you can buy$100 worth at $2.12 and can buy fractional units., but it should be fairly close.

If you short Obama:
$100/$10*$7.87 = $78.70 profit Assuming you can sell 10 at current price.

Less $4.99 monthly fee if not already on Intrade.
 
2012-09-28 05:16:54 PM

dywed88: RyogaM: So, if I put $100 on Romney to win, on intrade, and he actually wins, how much money would I get to console myself with?

To buy Mittens:
$100/$2.12*$10-$100= $371.70 profit Of course this assumes you can buy$100 worth at $2.12 and can buy fractional units., but it should be fairly close.

If you short Obama:
$100/$10*$7.87 = $78.70 profit Assuming you can sell 10 at current price.

Less $4.99 monthly fee if not already on Intrade.


Thanks.
 
2012-09-28 05:28:58 PM

jst3p: OtherBrotherDarryl: MindStalker: OtherBrotherDarryl: I'm sure most of you have heard of Intrade but if not, Link

Its interesting that there are some combinations that can guarantee you a win. For example if you buy all the combinations of the house/senate its relatively cheaper than $10. I'm tempted to buy a bunch of the D+D+D, it could happen...

I didn't look at your scenario specifically but yes, there are some arbitrage opportunities due to the low volume of trades for some bets. I assume there are some limits to how much you can have in your account (so your guaranteed win may not be worth the effort) but I'm not sure.

Example:

R Pres + R Senate + R house = $1.00 (Really?)
R pres + R Senate + D house = $.02
R Pres + D Senate + R house = $.40
R Pres + D Senate + D house = $.20

D Pres + R Senate + R house = $.47
D pres + R Senate + D house = $.09
D Pres + D Senate + R house = $.60
D Pres + D Senate + D house = $1.40

For a total of $4.18

So if you buy one share of each. One outcome is going to happen. You spent $4.18 and settle at $10.00.

What am I missing?


You misread, D+D+R is $6.00 not $0.60. When I looked at them earlier they added up to the low $9, now they are pretty close to $10..
 
2012-09-28 06:07:15 PM

Coolfusis: dramboxf: Coolfusis: He also rattled off a list of states that "might, if he's lucky" (come to think of it, Cali might have been on that list, not the "for sure" states)

If I might ask, how old is grandpa?

And what do you think will happen when Obama hands the smackdown I'm almost certain is going to occur? If the election were held TODAY, Nate Silver gives Romney a 2.2% chance of winning.

2.2%.

I think even Mondale in 84 had better numbers five weeks out. And he *promised* to raise taxes.

Closing on 70 in a hurry. I think he'll go right back to claiming that the people voted him in because of "white guilt" and that Acorn/whathaveyou rigged the elections. He's not a dumb man, but I think the misinformation is just so ingrained into his mind that, to him, he's being perfectly rational.


Well, I'll be 70 next spring and I'm a lifelong lefty-liberal Democrat (and living in the Deep South), so please tell him for me that I'm balancing out his own "old man" vote. There's still a few of us left.
 
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