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(New York Daily News)   After 22 erratic years, a knuckleball pitcher wins 20 games for the NY Mets   (nydailynews.com) divider line 82
    More: Spiffy, Mets, Citi Field, R.A. Dickey, pirates, Gio Gonzalez, knuckleball pitch, Pittsburgh, Dwight Gooden  
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798 clicks; posted to Sports » on 28 Sep 2012 at 11:38 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



82 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-09-28 09:26:39 AM  
If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.
 
2012-09-28 11:50:43 AM  
When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen
 
2012-09-28 12:04:06 PM  

WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.


Unless Cueto gets 20.
 
2012-09-28 12:06:03 PM  

Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen


???

He has pitched every 5-6 days all season. Including 4 against the team with the best record in baseball (Nats, 2-2) and 2 against the 2nd best (reds 0-1). And I'm a phillies fan
 
2012-09-28 12:11:32 PM  

The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.


They'll both need at least 21 to catch Gonzalez.
 
2012-09-28 12:12:35 PM  

Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen


______W______L ______W%______ERA______G______GS______IP
WP lt .500
______9 ______1 _____.900 ______1.74______12______12______88
WP of .500+
______11______5_____.688_______3.29______21______20______139.2


Except 2/3 of his starts are against teams with a win percentage over .500. 

/sorry for the awful formatting
 
2012-09-28 12:12:58 PM  

ChrisDe: They'll both need at least 21 to catch Gonzalez.


Gonzalez had run support!;)
 
2012-09-28 12:13:40 PM  

pastorkius: Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen

______W______L ______W%______ERA______G______GS______IP
WP lt .500
______9 ______1 _____.900 ______1.74______12______12______88
WP of .500+
______11______5_____.688_______3.29______21______20______139.2

Except 2/3 of his starts are against teams with a win percentage over .500. 

/sorry for the awful formatting


Wow, that came out even worse than it looked in preview!
 
2012-09-28 12:13:43 PM  

The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.


Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.
 
2012-09-28 12:15:29 PM  

Dafatone: Cueto pitches in a very tough park.


Yeah, it's bad when another pitcher in your own rotation calls it a Little League park.
 
2012-09-28 12:17:40 PM  
Tied for first in wins.
Second in era
First in Innings pitched
First in K's
First in Complete games
First in Shutouts
Third in Walks/Strikeouts

All while playing for team with zero offense.
 
2012-09-28 12:18:46 PM  
Kimbrel's a possible pick, too. His numbers are silly. But he's thrown less than a third of the innings of Dickey. Has he been three times as good?
 
2012-09-28 12:22:57 PM  
Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.
 
2012-09-28 12:23:01 PM  

WTF Indeed: All while playing for team with zero offense.


That's what will win it for him. Mets were decent - not good, just decent - until the all-star break, but since then they've absolutely sucked. I've watched at least 2 games where lack of offense and/or a horrible bullpen blew a win for him.
 
2012-09-28 12:23:39 PM  

LemSkroob: Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.


He's a knuckleballer, he's got 12 good years left minimum.
 
2012-09-28 12:24:18 PM  

LemSkroob: Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.


Yeah, that knuckleball is such a strain to throw, and it's too bad he wasn't touted as a prospect years ago.
 
2012-09-28 12:26:08 PM  

WTF Indeed: Tied for first second in wins.
Second in era
First in Innings pitched
First in K's
First in Complete games
First in Shutouts
Third in Walks/Strikeouts

All while playing for team with zero offense.


FTFY

/Seriously, I love Gio, but I won't be upset when Dickey wins the Cy
 
2012-09-28 12:26:34 PM  
obviously juicing.

seriously though, how many washed up starters are throwing knucklers like crazy these days? RA Dickey who? I'm pretty sure he's Jim Bouton with a goatee.
 
2012-09-28 12:31:54 PM  
A guy on espn said that he'd vote for Kimbrel, and now I'm scared.

Kimbrel's having a monster season, but he's thrown 60 innings.

Screw it, give it to Lincecum.
 
2012-09-28 12:34:59 PM  
RA Dickey / Gio Gonzales

FIP ( 3.25 / 3.82 )
fWAR ( 4.8 / 5.4 )

I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted. Both have had a great season. But after listening to an interview on NPR where RA talked about crying underwater because he knew he was about to drown. Then hitting the bottom of the river and willing himself to shore to get out, makes me want him to win it that much more.
 
2012-09-28 12:41:14 PM  

Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.


Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8
 
2012-09-28 12:44:01 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8


How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"
 
2012-09-28 12:46:50 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8


If there is one thing I hate about sabermetrics it's that it distills all of baseball down to a single flawed number and the expects the world to accept that number as infallible.
 
2012-09-28 12:50:52 PM  

zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


Meanwhile, baseball-reference has Dickey at 5.3 and Gio at 4.6. Which makes more sense. There are very few stats where Gio is ahead. H/9, HR/9, and K/9, but Dickey's got a sizeable lead in WHIP and a huge one in K/BB. Given that Dickey's also pitched 28.1 more innings, it's pretty absurd for Gio to be ahead in a cumulative stat like WAR.
 
2012-09-28 12:53:22 PM  

zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers
 
2012-09-28 12:53:27 PM  
Isn't Fangraphs WAR just FIP * IP, or xFIP * IP?

How does that add up?
 
2012-09-28 12:56:37 PM  

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

If there is one thing I hate about sabermetrics it's that it distills all of baseball down to a single flawed number and the expects the world to accept that number as infallible.


Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.
 
2012-09-28 12:56:39 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers


Someone posted FIPs for Gio and Dickey. Dickey had a better (lower) FIP than Gio. Dickey's got more innings than Gio. But Gio wins in FIP*IP?
 
2012-09-28 01:01:49 PM  

Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers

Someone posted FIPs for Gio and Dickey. Dickey had a better (lower) FIP than Gio. Dickey's got more innings than Gio. But Gio wins in FIP*IP?


A bit more goes into it than that. Park adjustments, run environment, etc.

More details can be found here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/
 
2012-09-28 01:02:27 PM  

Minarets: I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted.


zarberg: How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


Here's a really quick rundown on the two WAR systems:

rWAR looks at three things: the player's park adjusted run average (which I'll call RA9 from now on), IP, and how good DRS thinks the team's defense is. Each pitcher gets their RA9 adjusted to account for defense (and it's the same adjustment for every pitcher on a given team), then that's essentially multiplied by IP & compared to replacement level.

fWAR looks at two things: the player's park adjusted FIP (which is based solely on K, BB & HR) & IP. It then essentially multiplies them and compares to replacement, with no further adjustments necessary.

I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.
 
2012-09-28 01:03:03 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.


Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.
 
2012-09-28 01:03:47 PM  
Aw, you guys are great. Now I don't feel so bad about leaving.
 
2012-09-28 01:04:32 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Minarets: I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted.

zarberg: How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

Here's a really quick rundown on the two WAR systems:

rWAR looks at three things: the player's park adjusted run average (which I'll call RA9 from now on), IP, and how good DRS thinks the team's defense is. Each pitcher gets their RA9 adjusted to account for defense (and it's the same adjustment for every pitcher on a given team), then that's essentially multiplied by IP & compared to replacement level.

fWAR looks at two things: the player's park adjusted FIP (which is based solely on K, BB & HR) & IP. It then essentially multiplies them and compares to replacement, with no further adjustments necessary.

I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.


The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.
 
2012-09-28 01:04:46 PM  
Kudos to fangraphs for this

the headline says "In which R A Dickey throws a changeup"

and I thought to myself "changeup? no, must have just been a slow knuckler ..."

Saw the first video, and I said to myself "see? just a slow knuckler"

Then I noticed the two other vids ... check out that third one. No way it's a knuckler with that much spin.
 
2012-09-28 01:07:55 PM  

zarberg: Kudos to fangraphs for this

the headline says "In which R A Dickey throws a changeup"

and I thought to myself "changeup? no, must have just been a slow knuckler ..."

Saw the first video, and I said to myself "see? just a slow knuckler"

Then I noticed the two other vids ... check out that third one. No way it's a knuckler with that much spin.


I was watching the game. The change-up was filthy. Remember, when Dickey first got drafted, he was a hard throwing major prospect who was drafted in the first round.
 
2012-09-28 01:10:11 PM  

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.

Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.


Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?

DeWayne Mann: I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.


Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP.
 
2012-09-28 01:11:29 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP


Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.
 
2012-09-28 01:12:08 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.

Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.

Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?


Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.
 
2012-09-28 01:14:18 PM  
The only knock I have on RA is that he has been pitching for a team out of contention where as the 2nd best guy (IMFO) has been in a race, which adds value for me.
 
2012-09-28 01:16:39 PM  

Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP

Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.


DeWayne and I had a specific argument on BABIP as it relates to knucklers, not on Dickey overall. He has had a great year. Second best in the NL.

zarberg:

Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.


The GG is given by coaches, not sports writers (which makes their idiocy even less palatable). There is a stronger correlation to GG wins and offensive performance than defensive performance.
 
2012-09-28 01:20:10 PM  

farbekrieg: The only knock I have on RA is that he has been pitching for a team out of contention where as the 2nd best guy (IMFO) has been in a race, which adds value for me.


Cy Young is about the best pitcher. If you want the guy who's done most for their team, I think you're looking at the MVP award, which is why they should call it "Best hitter" "Top slugger" "Babe Ruth award" ... anything to actually slightly clarify the votes, especially since 1987 when a player on the league's worst team won the MVP award.

You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg:

Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.

The GG is given by coaches, not sports writers (which makes their idiocy even less palatable). There is a stronger correlation to GG wins and offensive performance than defensive performance.


Good point, forgot that's coaches ... makes me wonder how many coaches/managers/players actually know WTF is going on around them.
 
2012-09-28 01:21:32 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP

Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.

DeWayne and I had a specific argument on BABIP as it relates to knucklers, not on Dickey overall. He has had a great year. Second best in the NL.


Okay. I'm still sticking with "he's thrown 28.1 innings more than Gio. Gio better be WAY better than Dickey to win the Cy, and he hasn't been."
 
2012-09-28 01:23:56 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?


You mean there was a time wins were considered more important than other stats! OMG It's almost like Sabermetric guys biatched about relying one stat only and then said "Hey! We got this stat that is perfect. You should totally use this stat and ignore all others, or even watch the game. Because watching the game gets in the way of how perfect our one stat is."
 
2012-09-28 01:26:18 PM  
And hey, if you love baseball stats, I run an OotP league!
 
2012-09-28 01:30:09 PM  
Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.
 
2012-09-28 01:35:24 PM  
assets.nydailynews.com

If he has no strike outs, does it say DICEY?
 
2012-09-28 01:41:15 PM  

Dafatone: Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.


I do appreciate how we talk about 3 complete games, as if that is a good number.

I understand your argument, but with all the little factors I am willing to go with fangraphs calculations over my own. Last night I was cheering for Gio to get shelled. I want RA to win. But the facts are the facts.
 
2012-09-28 01:47:24 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.

I do appreciate how we talk about 3 complete games, as if that is a good number.

I understand your argument, but with all the little factors I am willing to go with fangraphs calculations over my own. Last night I was cheering for Gio to get shelled. I want RA to win. But the facts are the facts.


Oh, I meant that he has 3 complete games worth of innings more than Gio, not that he's thrown 3 more complete games.

Although he has thrown 3 more complete games.
 
2012-09-28 01:47:38 PM  

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?

You mean there was a time wins were considered more important than other stats! OMG It's almost like Sabermetric guys biatched about relying one stat only and then said "Hey! We got this stat that is perfect. You should totally use this stat and ignore all others, or even watch the game. Because watching the game gets in the way of how perfect our one stat is."


I can see where I said that fWAR is perfect and should never be re-evaluated. It is accepted as Gospel about all of whose who kneel at the cult of SABR.

But even with that, did sports writers watch the game back then? If so how were they so memorized by one stat, especially one without predictive qualities?

How is it that these sports writers went so long watching games without noticing pitchers have little to no impact on BABIP?
 
2012-09-28 01:48:16 PM  

WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.


They'll never give it to a knuckleballer. It upsets their preconceived notions about "quality pitchers."
 
2012-09-28 01:51:10 PM  
Jayson Stark said in his chat on ESPN that he's voting for Kimbrel.
 
2012-09-28 02:06:01 PM  

rag819: Jayson Stark said in his chat on ESPN that he's voting for Kimbrel.


Saw that. Kimbrel's been ridiculous. But he's thrown 60 pitches. 60.
 
2012-09-28 02:11:50 PM  

Dafatone: rag819: Jayson Stark said in his chat on ESPN that he's voting for Kimbrel.

Saw that. Kimbrel's been ridiculous. But he's thrown 60 pitches. 60.


Anybody who can rack up 111 K's on 60 pitches would get my vote.
 
2012-09-28 02:18:12 PM  

Dafatone:
Someone posted FIPs for Gio and Dickey. Dickey had a better (lower) FIP than Gio. Dickey's got more innings than Gio. But Gio wins in FIP*IP?

Minarets: RA Dickey / Gio Gonzales

FIP ( 3.25 / 2.84 )
fWAR ( 4.8 / 5.4 )


Pulled career xFIP instead of 2012 FIP. Sorry.
 
2012-09-28 02:18:38 PM  

Dafatone: The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.


'Cept 2 of the 3 stats you name here rely pretty heavily on defense. Which is something I'd like to avoid.

You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP.


Yes? I mean, half a season of Dickey doesn't change the underlying assumptions of FIP nor does it disprove any part of DIPS theory.

And I'm not saying that knuckleballers slightly overperform their FIP. I'm saying that FIP isn't designed to work with knuckleballers, and so it may (or may not) value them incorrectly.

zarberg: Cy Young is about the best pitcher. If you want the guy who's done most for their team, I think you're looking at the MVP award, which is why they should call it "Best hitter" "Top slugger" "Babe Ruth award" ... anything to actually slightly clarify the votes, especially since 1987 when a player on the league's worst team won the MVP award.


Or elevate the Hank Aaron to the same level as the Cy Young.

But even so, I've got no problem with a player winning the MVP on a bad team, as long as he had value.
 
2012-09-28 02:19:47 PM  
I usually hate using wins to measure a pitchers worth, but winning 20 games while on the Mets is quite the feat.
 
2012-09-28 02:22:46 PM  

zarberg: And hey, if you love baseball stats, I run an OotP league!


Ok, I'm confused. Is this an online league and you're looking for people to join, or just a league you do on your own?

If it's the former, I might be interested. 

If it's the latter, well, I'm going to go back to my Dodgers dynasty where Trey Hillman is the greatest manager in baseball history. Yes, THAT Trey Hillman.
 
2012-09-28 02:34:20 PM  

DeWayne Mann: zarberg: And hey, if you love baseball stats, I run an OotP league!

Ok, I'm confused. Is this an online league and you're looking for people to join, or just a league you do on your own?

If it's the former, I might be interested. 

If it's the latter, well, I'm going to go back to my Dodgers dynasty where Trey Hillman is the greatest manager in baseball history. Yes, THAT Trey Hillman.


It's an online league that I run using OotP13, we're in the offseason right now with 2 new GMs to expand with, although 2 more might not be a bad thing because then we could do 2 leagues with 2 divisions and 4 teams each for 16 teams total.

/EIP
 
2012-09-28 02:37:21 PM  
His career is an amazing story. It's like he floated motionless for years and then, boom, at the last minute, changed direction and became a winner. I really hope he wins it.

/mets fan
 
2012-09-28 02:37:36 PM  

zarberg: It's an online league that I run using OotP13, we're in the offseason right now with 2 new GMs to expand with, although 2 more might not be a bad thing because then we could do 2 leagues with 2 divisions and 4 teams each for 16 teams total.

/EIP


I'm writing you an email now. My email address should be just as obvious as yours.
 
2012-09-28 02:41:28 PM  

DeWayne Mann: zarberg: It's an online league that I run using OotP13, we're in the offseason right now with 2 new GMs to expand with, although 2 more might not be a bad thing because then we could do 2 leagues with 2 divisions and 4 teams each for 16 teams total.

/EIP

I'm writing you an email now. My email address should be just as obvious as yours.


And then I sent it from the wrong email address, so it WONT be obvious.
 
2012-09-28 02:43:44 PM  

DeWayne Mann: DeWayne Mann: zarberg: It's an online league that I run using OotP13, we're in the offseason right now with 2 new GMs to expand with, although 2 more might not be a bad thing because then we could do 2 leagues with 2 divisions and 4 teams each for 16 teams total.

/EIP

I'm writing you an email now. My email address should be just as obvious as yours.

And then I sent it from the wrong email address, so it WONT be obvious.


Ha! No worries. Since I have a tendency to say some really inflammatory/stupid stuff on the politics tab the EIP is an e-mail I rarely use. My "real" one is much closer to the domain in my baseball league URL.
 
2012-09-28 02:45:31 PM  

DeWayne Mann: And I'm not saying that knuckleballers slightly overperform their FIP. I'm saying that FIP isn't designed to work with knuckleballers, and so it may (or may not) value them incorrectly.


What is the latest stance on that? I know McCracken made some adjustments to his formula (.01 difference in expected difference in BABIP) but has anyone analyzed it since then?
 
2012-09-28 02:53:45 PM  

zarberg: Ha! No worries. Since I have a tendency to say some really inflammatory/stupid stuff on the politics tab the EIP is an e-mail I rarely use. My "real" one is much closer to the domain in my baseball league URL.


Yeah, I just have a really boring & common real name, so I tend to use DeWayne Mann for online dealings. Makes it a LOT easier to get an email address or username....

You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: And I'm not saying that knuckleballers slightly overperform their FIP. I'm saying that FIP isn't designed to work with knuckleballers, and so it may (or may not) value them incorrectly.

What is the latest stance on that? I know McCracken made some adjustments to his formula (.01 difference in expected difference in BABIP) but has anyone analyzed it since then?


Voros has been working with soccer since he left the Red Sox, and anything he did there won't be made public. Fastballs was probably the next most important DIPS guy, but he got hired by the Astros. TangoTiger's really the keeper of the DIPS torch now, though now that Pizzacutter is back from working with the Indians, that could change.

That's right, I just wrote a paragraph about guys who work for major league baseball teams, and solely referred to them by their online pseudonyms.
 
2012-09-28 03:05:58 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.

'Cept 2 of the 3 stats you name here rely pretty heavily on defense. Which is something I'd like to avoid.


Good point. Obviously ERA's pretty problematic. WHIP somewhat as well. We've talked about this and you've given me some good links, but I'd like to find a fielder-independent (or at least pitcher-dependent) approach that isn't just Ks, BBs, and HRs. Kinda hard, I know.

Also, the Mets' defense can't possibly be better than the Nats'.
 
2012-09-28 03:14:27 PM  

Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.

'Cept 2 of the 3 stats you name here rely pretty heavily on defense. Which is something I'd like to avoid.

Good point. Obviously ERA's pretty problematic. WHIP somewhat as well. We've talked about this and you've given me some good links, but I'd like to find a fielder-independent (or at least pitcher-dependent) approach that isn't just Ks, BBs, and HRs.


DICE?

Kinda hard, I know.

That's what she said

Also, the Mets' defense can't possibly be better than the Nats'.

Wright, Tejada, and Ike Davis are all very solid defensively. I haven't peeked too much into their outfield-by-committee to know about them.
 
2012-09-28 03:26:07 PM  

Dafatone: Good point. Obviously ERA's pretty problematic. WHIP somewhat as well. We've talked about this and you've given me some good links, but I'd like to find a fielder-independent (or at least pitcher-dependent) approach that isn't just Ks, BBs, and HRs. Kinda hard, I know.


SIERA & tERA might make you happy. Both are on fangraphs. I'm not a fan of tRA at all, and I think SIERA will be good with some more work, but you might like them better than me.

zarberg: DICE?


DICE & FIP are essentially the same thing, except DICE includes HBP and has a different "ERA" constant: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics# A lternate_formulae
 
2012-09-28 03:58:38 PM  

zarberg: Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.

'Cept 2 of the 3 stats you name here rely pretty heavily on defense. Which is something I'd like to avoid.

Good point. Obviously ERA's pretty problematic. WHIP somewhat as well. We've talked about this and you've given me some good links, but I'd like to find a fielder-independent (or at least pitcher-dependent) approach that isn't just Ks, BBs, and HRs.

DICE?

Kinda hard, I know.

That's what she said

Also, the Mets' defense can't possibly be better than the Nats'.

Wright, Tejada, and Ike Davis are all very solid defensively. I haven't peeked too much into their outfield-by-committee to know about them.


True. Daniel Murphy isn't great at 2nd, but he's definitely improving. The outfield sucks, depending on who is out there. Baseball-Reference dWARs:

Mike Baxter: -0.7, 58 games
Jason Bay: -0.4, 62 games
Lucas Duda: -2.0!, 101 games
Scott Hairston: -0.4, 102 games
Kirk Nieuwenhuis: -0.3, 83 games
Andres Torres: 0.6, 118 games
Jordany Valdespin: -1.1, 38 games (but part of that is 15 at 2b and 4 at ss).

The outfield defense is god-awful-terrible-atrocious.

Another thing to consider with Dickey is the 9000 passed balls and wild pitches he lets up because of the knuckler. To some degree, that's his doing, but to some degree it isn't.
 
2012-09-28 03:59:19 PM  
To respond to myself...

Is the replacement outfielder a defensive wizard or something?

And yeah, I'm using baseball-reference cause I like their site layout more. Sorry.
 
2012-09-28 04:09:11 PM  

Dafatone: To respond to myself...

Is the replacement outfielder a defensive wizard or something?

And yeah, I'm using baseball-reference cause I like their site layout more. Sorry.


The original definition of "replacement player" was an average defensive player at that position (solely to make calculations a bit easier). Since fangraphs doesn't have anything like dWAR, their definition of replacement player is "someone who provides replacement level value", which could be all offense, all defense or a combination.

But for bref...I'll admit I haven't dug into the workings of dWAR, but I suspect it actually assumes that a replacement player is actually a little ABOVE average defensively.  Because DRS is dumb.
 
2012-09-28 04:12:09 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: To respond to myself...

Is the replacement outfielder a defensive wizard or something?

And yeah, I'm using baseball-reference cause I like their site layout more. Sorry.

The original definition of "replacement player" was an average defensive player at that position (solely to make calculations a bit easier). Since fangraphs doesn't have anything like dWAR, their definition of replacement player is "someone who provides replacement level value", which could be all offense, all defense or a combination.

But for bref...I'll admit I haven't dug into the workings of dWAR, but I suspect it actually assumes that a replacement player is actually a little ABOVE average defensively.  Because DRS is dumb.


Makes sense. God, Lucas Duda can't field.
 
2012-09-28 04:15:58 PM  

Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: To respond to myself...

Is the replacement outfielder a defensive wizard or something?

And yeah, I'm using baseball-reference cause I like their site layout more. Sorry.

The original definition of "replacement player" was an average defensive player at that position (solely to make calculations a bit easier). Since fangraphs doesn't have anything like dWAR, their definition of replacement player is "someone who provides replacement level value", which could be all offense, all defense or a combination.

But for bref...I'll admit I haven't dug into the workings of dWAR, but I suspect it actually assumes that a replacement player is actually a little ABOVE average defensively.  Because DRS is dumb.

Makes sense. God, Lucas Duda can't field.


I'm not sure they've had a decent defensive outfield since Kevin McReynolds was there ... the first time.
 
2012-09-28 04:26:37 PM  

DeWayne Mann: But for bref...I'll admit I haven't dug into the workings of dWAR, but I suspect it actually assumes that a replacement player is actually a little ABOVE average defensively. Because DRS is dumb.


Let me expand on this a bit more, because it's something that really bugs me about DRS vs UZR and I want to see if anyone else has any thoughts on the topic.

I've selected a random year from the last decade on fangraphs: 2007.

In 2007, according to UZR, the major leagues had an UZR of 0.1. Meaning, as a whole, the entire league was .1 runs above average defensively, but that's probably a rounding error, as the UZR/150 was 0.

In 2007, the DRS of the major leagues was 8. Meaning, as a whole, the entire league was 8 runs above average defensively.

Let's break it down by position. I'll do this in the format "Position, UZR, UZR/150, DRS"

1B: 0, 0, -5
2B: .4, 0, 21
SS: -.3, 0, 22
3B: 0, 0, 10
RF: 0, 0, 12
CF: 0, 0, 8
LF: 0, 0, -7

Additionally, there's no UZR for pitchers or catchers in 2007, but DRS has pitchers at -25 and catchers at -21.

I don't want to say anything else at the moment, but is anyone NOT bothered by this?
 
2012-09-28 04:30:46 PM  
Dickey's earned the Cy Young. Here's a guy with 20 wins and he didn't get to face the Mets once.
 
2012-09-28 04:33:12 PM  

DeWayne Mann: DeWayne Mann: But for bref...I'll admit I haven't dug into the workings of dWAR, but I suspect it actually assumes that a replacement player is actually a little ABOVE average defensively. Because DRS is dumb.

Let me expand on this a bit more, because it's something that really bugs me about DRS vs UZR and I want to see if anyone else has any thoughts on the topic.

I've selected a random year from the last decade on fangraphs: 2007.

In 2007, according to UZR, the major leagues had an UZR of 0.1. Meaning, as a whole, the entire league was .1 runs above average defensively, but that's probably a rounding error, as the UZR/150 was 0.

In 2007, the DRS of the major leagues was 8. Meaning, as a whole, the entire league was 8 runs above average defensively.

Let's break it down by position. I'll do this in the format "Position, UZR, UZR/150, DRS"

1B: 0, 0, -5
2B: .4, 0, 21
SS: -.3, 0, 22
3B: 0, 0, 10
RF: 0, 0, 12
CF: 0, 0, 8
LF: 0, 0, -7

Additionally, there's no UZR for pitchers or catchers in 2007, but DRS has pitchers at -25 and catchers at -21.

I don't want to say anything else at the moment, but is anyone NOT bothered by this?


Can't you just let me cite dWAR in peace as if it actually means something? How else am I supposed to argue that Andruw Jones is THE single greatest defensive player of all time?
 
2012-09-28 04:36:56 PM  

Dafatone: Can't you just let me cite dWAR in peace as if it actually means something? How else am I supposed to argue that Andruw Jones is THE single greatest defensive player of all time?


Actually (and, again, I haven't dug into dWAR much), I think for seasons more than a decade ago, dWAR uses TZR. Which, while still problematic, is better than nothing. Which is what UZR would give us.

So you can use dWAR to talk about the Andruw Jones of the 90s.  I approve.
 
2012-09-28 04:42:51 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: Can't you just let me cite dWAR in peace as if it actually means something? How else am I supposed to argue that Andruw Jones is THE single greatest defensive player of all time?

Actually (and, again, I haven't dug into dWAR much), I think for seasons more than a decade ago, dWAR uses TZR. Which, while still problematic, is better than nothing. Which is what UZR would give us.

So you can use dWAR to talk about the Andruw Jones of the 90s.  I approve.


Speaking of defensive players and the 90's, you know what shocked me? Rey Ordonez really was as good as his flash back then.

/I would get the CEO's box seats a lot because I'd always bend the rules for his secretary (I was a netware/windows admin back then) and got to see a lot of games. Always thought he was all glitter.
 
2012-09-28 04:46:09 PM  

zarberg: Rey Ordonez


i.cdn.turner.com 

Also I like how I got that from an SI slideshow about Jeter, so the filename is basically "derek-jeter.jpg".

Stupid Jeter.
 
2012-09-28 04:47:03 PM  

DeWayne Mann: zarberg: Rey Ordonez

[i.cdn.turner.com image 666x469] 

Also I like how I got that from an SI slideshow about Jeter, so the filename is basically "derek-jeter.jpg".

Stupid Jeter.


Well that'll help my diet.

/never want to eat again.
 
2012-09-28 04:57:23 PM  

zarberg: DeWayne Mann: zarberg: Rey Ordonez

[i.cdn.turner.com image 666x469] 

Also I like how I got that from an SI slideshow about Jeter, so the filename is basically "derek-jeter.jpg".

Stupid Jeter.

Well that'll help my diet.

/never want to eat again.


24.media.tumblr.com

You know, looking back at that, there's a lot of weirdness, but my favorite thing is that in Feb 1997 they picked 5 upcoming shortstops.

Then a SS wins the '97 AL ROY (after playing a little in 1996)...AND IT ISN'T ONE OF THE 5 THEY PICKED.

Second favorite thing: Alex S Gonzalez, not the Alex Gonzalez who is still playing.

LOOK HERE'S AN ARTICLE: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/12/2701114/looking-back-at-baseballs- fa b-five
 
2012-09-28 07:00:59 PM  

DeWayne Mann: LOOK HERE'S AN ARTICLE: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/12/2701114/looking-back-at-baseballs- fa b-five


Ok, I chuckled at the Kal Penn bit
 
2012-09-28 08:03:35 PM  

zarberg: DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: Can't you just let me cite dWAR in peace as if it actually means something? How else am I supposed to argue that Andruw Jones is THE single greatest defensive player of all time?

Actually (and, again, I haven't dug into dWAR much), I think for seasons more than a decade ago, dWAR uses TZR. Which, while still problematic, is better than nothing. Which is what UZR would give us.

So you can use dWAR to talk about the Andruw Jones of the 90s.  I approve.

Speaking of defensive players and the 90's, you know what shocked me? Rey Ordonez really was as good as his flash back then.

/I would get the CEO's box seats a lot because I'd always bend the rules for his secretary (I was a netware/windows admin back then) and got to see a lot of games. Always thought he was all glitter.


No way, as to the glitter. He was flashy, but he made plays on balls in the hole that he shouldn't have even touched. The guy was phenomenal. I know I said Andruw's the greatest defensive player ever, and over a career I think that's true, but as far as the best peak that I've seen personally, Ordonez.

/Ah, baseball. Where talking about touching balls in the hole, a few posts down from a bunch of shirtless dudes, is only pretty gay.
 
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