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(New York Daily News)   After 22 erratic years, a knuckleball pitcher wins 20 games for the NY Mets   (nydailynews.com) divider line 82
    More: Spiffy, Mets, Citi Field, R.A. Dickey, pirates, Gio Gonzalez, knuckleball pitch, Pittsburgh, Dwight Gooden  
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796 clicks; posted to Sports » on 28 Sep 2012 at 11:38 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-28 09:26:39 AM
If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.
 
2012-09-28 11:50:43 AM
When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen
 
2012-09-28 12:04:06 PM

WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.


Unless Cueto gets 20.
 
2012-09-28 12:06:03 PM

Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen


???

He has pitched every 5-6 days all season. Including 4 against the team with the best record in baseball (Nats, 2-2) and 2 against the 2nd best (reds 0-1). And I'm a phillies fan
 
2012-09-28 12:11:32 PM

The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.


They'll both need at least 21 to catch Gonzalez.
 
2012-09-28 12:12:35 PM

Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen


______W______L ______W%______ERA______G______GS______IP
WP lt .500
______9 ______1 _____.900 ______1.74______12______12______88
WP of .500+
______11______5_____.688_______3.29______21______20______139.2


Except 2/3 of his starts are against teams with a win percentage over .500. 

/sorry for the awful formatting
 
2012-09-28 12:12:58 PM

ChrisDe: They'll both need at least 21 to catch Gonzalez.


Gonzalez had run support!;)
 
2012-09-28 12:13:40 PM

pastorkius: Lost Thought 00: When you cheat the schedule and only pitch him against the league's worst teams, that will happen

______W______L ______W%______ERA______G______GS______IP
WP lt .500
______9 ______1 _____.900 ______1.74______12______12______88
WP of .500+
______11______5_____.688_______3.29______21______20______139.2

Except 2/3 of his starts are against teams with a win percentage over .500. 

/sorry for the awful formatting


Wow, that came out even worse than it looked in preview!
 
2012-09-28 12:13:43 PM

The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.


Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.
 
2012-09-28 12:15:29 PM

Dafatone: Cueto pitches in a very tough park.


Yeah, it's bad when another pitcher in your own rotation calls it a Little League park.
 
2012-09-28 12:17:40 PM
Tied for first in wins.
Second in era
First in Innings pitched
First in K's
First in Complete games
First in Shutouts
Third in Walks/Strikeouts

All while playing for team with zero offense.
 
2012-09-28 12:18:46 PM
Kimbrel's a possible pick, too. His numbers are silly. But he's thrown less than a third of the innings of Dickey. Has he been three times as good?
 
2012-09-28 12:22:57 PM
Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.
 
2012-09-28 12:23:01 PM

WTF Indeed: All while playing for team with zero offense.


That's what will win it for him. Mets were decent - not good, just decent - until the all-star break, but since then they've absolutely sucked. I've watched at least 2 games where lack of offense and/or a horrible bullpen blew a win for him.
 
2012-09-28 12:23:39 PM

LemSkroob: Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.


He's a knuckleballer, he's got 12 good years left minimum.
 
2012-09-28 12:24:18 PM

LemSkroob: Its nice to see the Mets finally get themselves a nice ace to build the team around for the future. Oh, he's 37 already? Well, so much for that.

An emerging star that should have emerged 15 years ago.


Yeah, that knuckleball is such a strain to throw, and it's too bad he wasn't touted as a prospect years ago.
 
2012-09-28 12:26:08 PM

WTF Indeed: Tied for first second in wins.
Second in era
First in Innings pitched
First in K's
First in Complete games
First in Shutouts
Third in Walks/Strikeouts

All while playing for team with zero offense.


FTFY

/Seriously, I love Gio, but I won't be upset when Dickey wins the Cy
 
2012-09-28 12:26:34 PM
obviously juicing.

seriously though, how many washed up starters are throwing knucklers like crazy these days? RA Dickey who? I'm pretty sure he's Jim Bouton with a goatee.
 
2012-09-28 12:31:54 PM
A guy on espn said that he'd vote for Kimbrel, and now I'm scared.

Kimbrel's having a monster season, but he's thrown 60 innings.

Screw it, give it to Lincecum.
 
2012-09-28 12:34:59 PM
RA Dickey / Gio Gonzales

FIP ( 3.25 / 3.82 )
fWAR ( 4.8 / 5.4 )

I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted. Both have had a great season. But after listening to an interview on NPR where RA talked about crying underwater because he knew he was about to drown. Then hitting the bottom of the river and willing himself to shore to get out, makes me want him to win it that much more.
 
2012-09-28 12:41:14 PM

Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.


Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8
 
2012-09-28 12:44:01 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8


How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"
 
2012-09-28 12:46:50 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8


If there is one thing I hate about sabermetrics it's that it distills all of baseball down to a single flawed number and the expects the world to accept that number as infallible.
 
2012-09-28 12:50:52 PM

zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


Meanwhile, baseball-reference has Dickey at 5.3 and Gio at 4.6. Which makes more sense. There are very few stats where Gio is ahead. H/9, HR/9, and K/9, but Dickey's got a sizeable lead in WHIP and a huge one in K/BB. Given that Dickey's also pitched 28.1 more innings, it's pretty absurd for Gio to be ahead in a cumulative stat like WAR.
 
2012-09-28 12:53:22 PM

zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers
 
2012-09-28 12:53:27 PM
Isn't Fangraphs WAR just FIP * IP, or xFIP * IP?

How does that add up?
 
2012-09-28 12:56:37 PM

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

If there is one thing I hate about sabermetrics it's that it distills all of baseball down to a single flawed number and the expects the world to accept that number as infallible.


Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.
 
2012-09-28 12:56:39 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers


Someone posted FIPs for Gio and Dickey. Dickey had a better (lower) FIP than Gio. Dickey's got more innings than Gio. But Gio wins in FIP*IP?
 
2012-09-28 01:01:49 PM

Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg: You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: The Muthaship: WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.

Unless Cueto gets 20.

Dickey has more innings and Ks than Cueto. He beats him in WHIP and ERA.

But both are better than Gio Gonzalez. Cueto pitches in a very tough park.

Neither has had a better season than Gio, who should win the Cy.

fWAR:
Gio 5.4
Kershaw 4.8
Lee 4.8
Dickey 4.8
Cueto 4.8

How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

Basically fangraphs uses FIPxIP to determine pitcher WAR, baseball reference uses actual runs allowed and subtracts out expected runs, park factors and defense. The way they handle defense is terrible so it is less accurate for pitchers

Someone posted FIPs for Gio and Dickey. Dickey had a better (lower) FIP than Gio. Dickey's got more innings than Gio. But Gio wins in FIP*IP?


A bit more goes into it than that. Park adjustments, run environment, etc.

More details can be found here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/war/differences-fwar-rwar/
 
2012-09-28 01:02:27 PM

Minarets: I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted.


zarberg: How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"


Here's a really quick rundown on the two WAR systems:

rWAR looks at three things: the player's park adjusted run average (which I'll call RA9 from now on), IP, and how good DRS thinks the team's defense is. Each pitcher gets their RA9 adjusted to account for defense (and it's the same adjustment for every pitcher on a given team), then that's essentially multiplied by IP & compared to replacement level.

fWAR looks at two things: the player's park adjusted FIP (which is based solely on K, BB & HR) & IP. It then essentially multiplies them and compares to replacement, with no further adjustments necessary.

I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.
 
2012-09-28 01:03:03 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.


Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.
 
2012-09-28 01:03:47 PM
Aw, you guys are great. Now I don't feel so bad about leaving.
 
2012-09-28 01:04:32 PM

DeWayne Mann: Minarets: I think (but am not positive) that fWAR is park adjusted.

zarberg: How does Fangraphs do their WAR differently? Just curious as to what makes the "f" in "fWAR"

Here's a really quick rundown on the two WAR systems:

rWAR looks at three things: the player's park adjusted run average (which I'll call RA9 from now on), IP, and how good DRS thinks the team's defense is. Each pitcher gets their RA9 adjusted to account for defense (and it's the same adjustment for every pitcher on a given team), then that's essentially multiplied by IP & compared to replacement level.

fWAR looks at two things: the player's park adjusted FIP (which is based solely on K, BB & HR) & IP. It then essentially multiplies them and compares to replacement, with no further adjustments necessary.

I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.


The way I see it, if you have two pitchers who appear pretty close in just about surface level stat you can throw out (ERA, WHIP, k/9, etc), but one of them is averaging more than an inning per start more, well, it's pretty obvious who is better.
 
2012-09-28 01:04:46 PM
Kudos to fangraphs for this

the headline says "In which R A Dickey throws a changeup"

and I thought to myself "changeup? no, must have just been a slow knuckler ..."

Saw the first video, and I said to myself "see? just a slow knuckler"

Then I noticed the two other vids ... check out that third one. No way it's a knuckler with that much spin.
 
2012-09-28 01:07:55 PM

zarberg: Kudos to fangraphs for this

the headline says "In which R A Dickey throws a changeup"

and I thought to myself "changeup? no, must have just been a slow knuckler ..."

Saw the first video, and I said to myself "see? just a slow knuckler"

Then I noticed the two other vids ... check out that third one. No way it's a knuckler with that much spin.


I was watching the game. The change-up was filthy. Remember, when Dickey first got drafted, he was a hard throwing major prospect who was drafted in the first round.
 
2012-09-28 01:10:11 PM

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.

Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.


Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?

DeWayne Mann: I'm an fWAR fan for reasons that I can get into later (I'm about to head out for a bit), but it's worth noting that that FIP probably values knuckleballers incorrectly, so it may not be the best stat to use for him.


Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP.
 
2012-09-28 01:11:29 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP


Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.
 
2012-09-28 01:12:08 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Great. Tell me how you value the relative differences in K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Also please let me know what you used to adjust for park factors.

Watch the actual game. Which is the reason sports writers get the vote.

Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?


Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.
 
2012-09-28 01:14:18 PM
The only knock I have on RA is that he has been pitching for a team out of contention where as the 2nd best guy (IMFO) has been in a race, which adds value for me.
 
2012-09-28 01:16:39 PM

Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP

Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.


DeWayne and I had a specific argument on BABIP as it relates to knucklers, not on Dickey overall. He has had a great year. Second best in the NL.

zarberg:

Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.


The GG is given by coaches, not sports writers (which makes their idiocy even less palatable). There is a stronger correlation to GG wins and offensive performance than defensive performance.
 
2012-09-28 01:20:10 PM

farbekrieg: The only knock I have on RA is that he has been pitching for a team out of contention where as the 2nd best guy (IMFO) has been in a race, which adds value for me.


Cy Young is about the best pitcher. If you want the guy who's done most for their team, I think you're looking at the MVP award, which is why they should call it "Best hitter" "Top slugger" "Babe Ruth award" ... anything to actually slightly clarify the votes, especially since 1987 when a player on the league's worst team won the MVP award.

You're the jerk... jerk: zarberg:

Or Jeter somehow winning gold gloves. I've said it before, I'll say it again ... he turns what are routine plays for most other shortstops into highlight-reel dives, spins, and slides.

The GG is given by coaches, not sports writers (which makes their idiocy even less palatable). There is a stronger correlation to GG wins and offensive performance than defensive performance.


Good point, forgot that's coaches ... makes me wonder how many coaches/managers/players actually know WTF is going on around them.
 
2012-09-28 01:21:32 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: You're the jerk... jerk: Still holding onto that, even when Dickey's numbers regressed as predicted? You still may be right, but since there will never be enough knuckleballers to test this all we can say is knuckleballers good enough to get to the Majors somewhat slightly overperform their FIP

Regressed? He had a "clearly the best pitcher in baseball" first half and a "clearly ONE of the best pitchers in baseball" second half. It's not like he fell off a cliff.

DeWayne and I had a specific argument on BABIP as it relates to knucklers, not on Dickey overall. He has had a great year. Second best in the NL.


Okay. I'm still sticking with "he's thrown 28.1 innings more than Gio. Gio better be WAY better than Dickey to win the Cy, and he hasn't been."
 
2012-09-28 01:23:56 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?


You mean there was a time wins were considered more important than other stats! OMG It's almost like Sabermetric guys biatched about relying one stat only and then said "Hey! We got this stat that is perfect. You should totally use this stat and ignore all others, or even watch the game. Because watching the game gets in the way of how perfect our one stat is."
 
2012-09-28 01:26:18 PM
And hey, if you love baseball stats, I run an OotP league!
 
2012-09-28 01:30:09 PM
Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.
 
2012-09-28 01:35:24 PM
assets.nydailynews.com

If he has no strike outs, does it say DICEY?
 
2012-09-28 01:41:15 PM

Dafatone: Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.


I do appreciate how we talk about 3 complete games, as if that is a good number.

I understand your argument, but with all the little factors I am willing to go with fangraphs calculations over my own. Last night I was cheering for Gio to get shelled. I want RA to win. But the facts are the facts.
 
2012-09-28 01:47:24 PM

You're the jerk... jerk: Dafatone: Ugh, thanks for making me argue against my usual stance, sabermetrics.

The ONLY thing that puts Gio ahead of Dickey (Gio wins slightly in h/9 and k/9, but not by a huge amount) is his HR/9, which is ridiculous. Dickey's well ahead in xFIP. Normally, I think xFIP is lame and that pitchers have control over their HR rate. But let's say they have some control, and the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. Call this half-xFIP. It's an average of your xFIP and your FIP. I think Gio and Dickey are about tied in this, or Dickey has a slight lead.

So then what? Then, you give the cy young to the guy who has thrown 3 COMPLETE GAMES (plus 1.1) more innings. Or, give it to Kershaw.

I do appreciate how we talk about 3 complete games, as if that is a good number.

I understand your argument, but with all the little factors I am willing to go with fangraphs calculations over my own. Last night I was cheering for Gio to get shelled. I want RA to win. But the facts are the facts.


Oh, I meant that he has 3 complete games worth of innings more than Gio, not that he's thrown 3 more complete games.

Although he has thrown 3 more complete games.
 
2012-09-28 01:47:38 PM

WTF Indeed: You're the jerk... jerk: Bartolo Colon, Jack McDowell, Pete Vuckovich and Bob Welch agree with this system. Should I go on? Are you doing to defend any of those picks?

You mean there was a time wins were considered more important than other stats! OMG It's almost like Sabermetric guys biatched about relying one stat only and then said "Hey! We got this stat that is perfect. You should totally use this stat and ignore all others, or even watch the game. Because watching the game gets in the way of how perfect our one stat is."


I can see where I said that fWAR is perfect and should never be re-evaluated. It is accepted as Gospel about all of whose who kneel at the cult of SABR.

But even with that, did sports writers watch the game back then? If so how were they so memorized by one stat, especially one without predictive qualities?

How is it that these sports writers went so long watching games without noticing pitchers have little to no impact on BABIP?
 
2012-09-28 01:48:16 PM

WTF Indeed: If he doesn't win the CY Young award they need to revoke the vote of every sports writer who didn't vote for him.


They'll never give it to a knuckleballer. It upsets their preconceived notions about "quality pitchers."
 
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