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    More: Fail, American League, Oakland, Tampa Bay Rays, A's  
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3484 clicks; posted to Sports » on 27 Sep 2012 at 2:27 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-27 02:29:05 PM  
It worked out OK for Mark Reynolds. Financially speaking.
 
2012-09-27 02:29:06 PM  
Is this the thread where I make some derisive reference to Moneyball while making it clear I don't have the slightest f*cking clue what I'm talking about?
 
2012-09-27 02:32:39 PM  

Killer Cars: Is this the thread where I make some derisive reference to Moneyball while making it clear I don't have the slightest f*cking clue what I'm talking about?


I think so. Too many people don't get how much of an accomplishment it was to compete with the teams that outspent you 4 dollars to 1.
 
2012-09-27 02:34:47 PM  
So Moneyball gets you the most strikeouts money can't buy. Interesting.
 
2012-09-27 02:39:05 PM  
After reading the headline, I read the article hoping it would be about a baseball team being racist in some shape or form. I left disappointed.
 
2012-09-27 02:43:21 PM  
Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

www.baseballprospectus.com  (click for interesting article)
 
2012-09-27 02:44:12 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)


Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?
 
2012-09-27 02:45:58 PM  

Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?


Mets
 
2012-09-27 02:47:40 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)


Based on the chart, I think you CANNOT reject the null hypothesis that there is NO correlation.
 
2012-09-27 02:48:12 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?

Mets


Obviously
 
2012-09-27 02:52:16 PM  
Did subby check the standings before clicking on the fail tag?
 
2012-09-27 02:52:17 PM  
And yet they're still in line for a playoff spot and are better than most other teams in the league.

imokaywiththis.jpg
 
2012-09-27 02:53:57 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?

Mets


*laughs* *cries*
 
2012-09-27 02:55:26 PM  

drunkness_monster00: After reading the headline, I read the article hoping it would be about a baseball team being racist in some shape or form. I left disappointed.


Oh good, it wasn't just me then.
 
2012-09-27 02:56:27 PM  

tootse: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Based on the chart, I think you CANNOT reject the null hypothesis that there is NO correlation.


I wasn't aware that I had.

But if there is a connection, it is certainly not "strikeouts == bad offense." And yet, there are plenty of people who think that's the case. They're not in the thread (yet), but they're out there.
 
2012-09-27 02:58:08 PM  

DeWayne Mann: But if there is a connection, it is certainly not "strikeouts == bad offense."


Well, I mean, literally, on a per-at-bat basis, strikeouts are bad offense.
 
2012-09-27 03:01:36 PM  

IAmRight: DeWayne Mann: But if there is a connection, it is certainly not "strikeouts == bad offense."

Well, I mean, literally, on a per-at-bat basis, strikeouts are bad offense.


It's all relative. With a man on first, less than two outs, "strikeout" is actually preferable to "generic_ball_in_play_out."  Since "generic_ball_in_play_out" is the most likely outcome of a PA, this means, in some circumstances, a strikeout is BETTER than expected!
 
2012-09-27 03:02:25 PM  

DeWayne Mann: tootse: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Based on the chart, I think you CANNOT reject the null hypothesis that there is NO correlation.

I wasn't aware that I had.

But if there is a connection, it is certainly not "strikeouts == bad offense." And yet, there are plenty of people who think that's the case. They're not in the thread (yet), but they're out there.


I didn't mean to imply that you believed the correlation. I meant that "one" cannot reject the hypothesis....

IAmRight: DeWayne Mann: But if there is a connection, it is certainly not "strikeouts == bad offense."

Well, I mean, literally, on a per-at-bat basis, strikeouts are bad offense.


Strikeouts are certainly better offense than grounding out into a double-play.
 
2012-09-27 03:03:38 PM  

tootse: I didn't mean to imply that you believed the correlation. I meant that "one" cannot reject the hypothesis....


Ok, gotcha.
 
2012-09-27 03:08:39 PM  

Killer Cars: Is this the thread where I make some derisive reference to Moneyball while making it clear I don't have the slightest f*cking clue what I'm talking about?


Make sure you call it Billy Beane's book, as informed experts like Joe Morgan did.
 
2012-09-27 03:09:32 PM  

GQueue: Killer Cars: Is this the thread where I make some derisive reference to Moneyball while making it clear I don't have the slightest f*cking clue what I'm talking about?

Make sure you call it Billy Beane's book, as informed experts like Joe Morgan did.


Now now, that's just crazy.

It was written by Billy Beane's COMPUTER.
 
2012-09-27 03:10:11 PM  
Striking out is never GOOD offense is all I'm saying. Not that it's the worst thing in the world. Calm down.
 
2012-09-27 03:12:18 PM  

IAmRight: Striking out is never GOOD offense is all I'm saying. Not that it's the worst thing in the world. Calm down.


Well, I was not being ENTIRELY serious in my reply. Though the point is still true.
 
2012-09-27 03:12:53 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)


I think one of the hardest things for people to accept is that while Ks are good for pitchers, they aren't worse than any other outs for batters. The reason for this is pretty clear, pitchers have less control over BABIP than hitters do. It may actually be the case that pitchers should pitch for contact against slow, weak players and try to strike out strong, fast players.
 
2012-09-27 03:20:27 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

I think one of the hardest things for people to accept is that while Ks are good for pitchers, they aren't worse than any other outs for batters. The reason for this is pretty clear, pitchers have less control over BABIP than hitters do. It may actually be the case that pitchers should pitch for contact against slow, weak players and try to strike out strong, fast players.


Shoot, I'd go a step further.

If ALL I KNOW about two hitters is their K rate, I'll almost certainly select the one who strikes out more. Better chance of a better hitter.

If I wasn't lazy, this would be the point where I compare Adam Dunn & Ichiro.
 
2012-09-27 03:27:55 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?

Mets


Ouch.
 
2012-09-27 03:28:46 PM  

DeWayne Mann: You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

I think one of the hardest things for people to accept is that while Ks are good for pitchers, they aren't worse than any other outs for batters. The reason for this is pretty clear, pitchers have less control over BABIP than hitters do. It may actually be the case that pitchers should pitch for contact against slow, weak players and try to strike out strong, fast players.

Shoot, I'd go a step further.

If ALL I KNOW about two hitters is their K rate, I'll almost certainly select the one who strikes out more. Better chance of a better hitter.

If I wasn't lazy, this would be the point where I compare Adam Dunn & Ichiro.


I'd be curious to see that sorta chart/correlation for individual player seasons. Maybe K vs ops+ or something. Sounds like a LOT of work.
 
2012-09-27 03:33:43 PM  

DeWayne Mann: You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

I think one of the hardest things for people to accept is that while Ks are good for pitchers, they aren't worse than any other outs for batters. The reason for this is pretty clear, pitchers have less control over BABIP than hitters do. It may actually be the case that pitchers should pitch for contact against slow, weak players and try to strike out strong, fast players.

Shoot, I'd go a step further.

If ALL I KNOW about two hitters is their K rate, I'll almost certainly select the one who strikes out more. Better chance of a better hitter.

If I wasn't lazy, this would be the point where I compare Adam Dunn & Ichiro.


If you limit it to ML hitters, I agree. But you have biased your sample (prejudices against strike outs mean a higher strikeout guy making it to the majors has to be better overall).
 
2012-09-27 03:38:21 PM  
It doesn't help when one of your players is always in the wrong uniform
static.sportressofblogitude.com
 
2012-09-27 03:38:29 PM  

Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:

[www.baseballprospectus.com image 588x403]  (click for interesting article)

Yeah, but look at that one dot in the bottom right! What about that team?

Mets

Ouch.


You know, I said that offhandedly, but there's a very good chance that's the 1968 Mets. It could be the 1969 Padres, but I believe that's actually the dot just to the left.

Dafatone: I'd be curious to see that sorta chart/correlation for individual player seasons. Maybe K vs ops+ or something. Sounds like a LOT of work.


I'm fairly sure there's an article on insidethebook.com with something like that.

In general, though, low strikeout guys tend to have high batting averages, but they tend to be emptier. Conversely, the high strikeout guys have low averages, but nice amounts of walks & ISO. Eventually, there comes a point where a batting average is SO low that the guy can't be a good hitter (hello, Carlos Pena), but until then, it's not really an issue.
 
2012-09-27 03:40:00 PM  

You're the jerk... jerk: If you limit it to ML hitters, I agree.


I DID mean major league hitters, sorry. Thanks for pointing that out.
 
2012-09-27 03:49:24 PM  

DeWayne Mann: If I wasn't lazy, this would be the point where I compare Adam Dunn & Ichiro.


Some quick stats on the subject:

Adam Dunn 2012, 33.9 K%: 117 OPS+, .352 wOBA

Ichiro Suzuki 2012, 9.7 K%: 96 OPS+, .307 wOBA

Interesting stuff. On a semi-related note, something I found rather surprising:

Adam Dunn 2012: 2.1 WAR

Ichiro Suzuki 2012: 2.8 WAR

I'm too lazy to go get the oWAR figures specifically and make this totally relevant to the discussion, but I was surprised that Ichiro is overall the more valuable player this year by a substantial margin(I guess baserunning and fielding make up the difference).
 
2012-09-27 03:55:59 PM  

Cagey B: Adam Dunn 2012: 2.1 WAR

Ichiro Suzuki 2012: 2.8 WAR

I'm too lazy to go get the oWAR figures specifically and make this totally relevant to the discussion, but I was surprised that Ichiro is overall the more valuable player this year by a substantial margin(I guess baserunning and fielding make up the difference).


I'm not sure I'd call 7 runs substantial, but, yeah. Ichiro is worth almost 15 more runs than Dunn on defense, and a few more on baserunning.

But just in terms of offense, I made this graph a while back (and I'm not going to update it for the last month or so of 2012):

i1154.photobucket.com

That's NOT park adjusted, meaning the year that they're really close together, Ichiro was probably a smidge better. Otherwise, though... 

(Plus, that's wOBA, NOT OPS, meaning Ichiro gets credit for steals. If I did OPS or wOBA w/o baserunning, well....)
 
2012-09-27 04:35:00 PM  
what would the numbers look like if you just compare Ichirio the Yankee?
 
2012-09-27 04:39:59 PM  

The Bestest: what would the numbers look like if you just compare Ichirio the Yankee?


Greatest player in history not named Derek Jeter.
 
2012-09-27 05:25:45 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Fun fact: although there's not much of a correlation between runs scored & strikeouts, the correlation IS positive:



You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.


//The midterm in my MBA stats class was take home. One of my answers was in the low millions and a friend in the class had an answer in the billions and we both got full credit. That was the point I stopped trying to learn what the prof was teaching.
 
2012-09-27 05:33:40 PM  

roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.


Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.
 
2012-09-27 05:58:14 PM  
since all the other threads went red and there are no other baseball ones in the queue, guess this is as good a place as any to mention the Indians fired Acta.

In the meantime we had a few day games and I'm bored, so updating the AL race:

Rangers 9, A's 7
Tigers 5, Royals 4
Mariners currently up 4-2 over Angels in the 7th
Yankees at Jays at 7
Rays at White Sox at 8
O's off.

Rangers with a 1.5 game lead over Yankees for the #1.
Yankees 1.5 over O's for AL East and the #2.
O's 1 over A's for WC1.
A's 1.5 over Angels and 2.5 over Rays for WC2
Tigers 1.5 games over White Sox for AL Central. (AL Central is locked into 3rd seed)
 
2012-09-27 06:00:09 PM  

The Bestest: since all the other threads went red and there are no other baseball ones in the queue, guess this is as good a place as any to mention the Indians fired Acta.


And got in touch with Francona.
 
2012-09-27 06:02:41 PM  

DeWayne Mann: The Bestest: since all the other threads went red and there are no other baseball ones in the queue, guess this is as good a place as any to mention the Indians fired Acta.

And got in touch with Francona.


I always liked Acta when he was with the Mets. Wonder if he'd come back. Terry Collins isn't bad, but he's also not good.
 
2012-09-27 06:07:23 PM  

ScotterOtter: Did subby check the standings before clicking on the fail tag?


Why bother, Brother? The all time single season team record for Ks has little to nothing to do with the fact that the swingin' A's are still looking up at Texas in the standings.

/Magic #3!!!!!!
 
2012-09-27 06:07:42 PM  

Dafatone: DeWayne Mann: The Bestest: since all the other threads went red and there are no other baseball ones in the queue, guess this is as good a place as any to mention the Indians fired Acta.

And got in touch with Francona.

I always liked Acta when he was with the Mets. Wonder if he'd come back. Terry Collins isn't bad, but he's also not good.


Speaking from a solely statistical standpoint (alliteration is fun!), that sounds like a fantastic match. Acta is one of the more statistically inclined managers out there; Alderson is one of the more statistically inclined GMs out there.
 
2012-09-27 06:57:08 PM  

IAmRight: Striking out is never GOOD offense is all I'm saying. Not that it's the worst thing in the world. Calm down.


I think it could. Strike outs are mostly equal to more than three pitched. By comparison a pop out could only be one pitch. The whole goal is to force the pitcher to throw more pitches and wear down the bull pen.

I have no numbers to back this up, however it could be interpreted this way.
 
2012-09-27 07:09:20 PM  

great_tigers: IAmRight: Striking out is never GOOD offense is all I'm saying. Not that it's the worst thing in the world. Calm down.

I think it could. Strike outs are mostly equal to more than three pitched. By comparison a pop out could only be one pitch. The whole goal is to force the pitcher to throw more pitches and wear down the bull pen.

I have no numbers to back this up, however it could be interpreted this way.


The average strikeout is about 1.5 pitches longer than the average ball in play out (which in turn takes about 3.3).
 
2012-09-27 07:12:45 PM  

DeWayne Mann: The average strikeout is about 1.5 pitches longer than the average ball in play out (which in turn takes about 3.3).


balls in play tend to be much deadlier DPs with men on-base (though the strike-em-out/throw-em-out does happen, it's far less frequent)
 
2012-09-27 07:21:33 PM  

The Bestest: DeWayne Mann: The average strikeout is about 1.5 pitches longer than the average ball in play out (which in turn takes about 3.3).

balls in play tend to be much deadlier DPs with men on-base (though the strike-em-out/throw-em-out does happen, it's far less frequent)


For those exact numbers, I provide you with this:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

(note that even though I just used the word "exact", those are actually estimates, as explained in the header)
 
2012-09-27 07:24:04 PM  
Everyone knows strikeouts count more than flyouts. Sheesh.
 
2012-09-27 07:45:55 PM  

DeWayne Mann: For those exact numbers, I provide you with this:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

(note that even though I just used the word "exact", those are actually estimates, as explained in the header)


huh.. interesting.. thanks! (I've admitted before to not being a "stats guy", but I do like stuff like that.. well, lemmie clarify.. aside from my team and my personal favorites, I generally don't care about individual player stats, but general gamewide trends and the like fascinate me)
 
2012-09-27 07:56:40 PM  

The Bestest: DeWayne Mann: For those exact numbers, I provide you with this:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

(note that even though I just used the word "exact", those are actually estimates, as explained in the header)

huh.. interesting.. thanks! (I've admitted before to not being a "stats guy", but I do like stuff like that.. well, lemmie clarify.. aside from my team and my personal favorites, I generally don't care about individual player stats, but general gamewide trends and the like fascinate me)


Yeah, that's some cool stuff. And it all ties in with other neat things like WPA, RE24, wOBA, wRC+....
 
2012-09-27 09:02:55 PM  
well, Brandon farking Morrow is apparently shutting out the Yanks tonight, so that's a thing
 
2012-09-27 09:16:46 PM  
They're still in the hunt

/ for red October, ok, just October.
 
2012-09-27 09:49:14 PM  
..and now the Yankees are 0 and fifty-whybother when trailing after 8

The Jays give up 7 homers to that Murderers Row known as the Baltimore Orioles, and the very next night shut out the Yankees.

You know Suzyn, you just can't predict baseball...
 
2012-09-27 11:33:46 PM  
Rangers 9, A's 7
Tigers 5, Royals 4
Mariners 9, Angels 4
Jays 6, Yankees 0
Rays 3, White Sox 2
O's off.

Rangers with a 2 game lead over Yankees for the #1.
Yankees 1 over O's for AL East and the #2.
O's 1 over A's for WC1.
A's 2 over Angels and Rays for WC2
Tigers 2 games over White Sox for AL Central. (AL Central is locked into 3rd seed)

Six to play all around.

A reminder for those that don't know, the Divisional Series have a special format this year (it will return to normal next)

Wild Card Game : WC2 at WC1

LDS:
Gm1: #3 at #2, #1 at WC
Gm2: #3 at #2, #1 at WC
Gm3: #2 at #3, WC at #1
Gm4*: #2 at #3, WC at #1
Gm5*: #3 at #2, WC at #1
 
2012-09-28 11:05:00 AM  
Felt wrong not to swing...
 
2012-09-28 11:17:30 AM  

DeWayne Mann: roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.

Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.


photos1.blogger.com

///Posting that gave me dysentery. And herpes.
 
2012-09-28 12:50:02 PM  

roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.

Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.

[photos1.blogger.com image 320x320]

///Posting that gave me dysentery. And herpes.


Interestingly enough, the dot in the lower left corner? ALSO the mets.
 
2012-09-28 12:55:36 PM  

DeWayne Mann: roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.

Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.

[photos1.blogger.com image 320x320]

///Posting that gave me dysentery. And herpes.

Interestingly enough, the dot in the lower left corner? ALSO the mets.


You disgust me.
 
2012-09-28 01:05:16 PM  

roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.

Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.

[photos1.blogger.com image 320x320]

///Posting that gave me dysentery. And herpes.

Interestingly enough, the dot in the lower left corner? ALSO the mets.

You disgust me.


Actually, on second look, why in the world IS there a data point at the origin?
 
2012-09-28 01:25:51 PM  

DeWayne Mann: roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: You are a bad person and should feel bad about yourself. I don't get the shakes when I see the numbers, but regression graphs make me violently ill.

Ah, but is there a correlation between "how ill" and "how completely insane the graph is"? Please show your work in the form of a completely insane graph.

[photos1.blogger.com image 320x320]

///Posting that gave me dysentery. And herpes.

Interestingly enough, the dot in the lower left corner? ALSO the mets.

You disgust me.

Actually, on second look, why in the world IS there a data point at the origin?


No clue, I found it from GIS. Here is the blog article it came from: Link
 
2012-09-28 02:20:04 PM  

roc6783: No clue, I found it from GIS. Here is the blog article it came from: Link


Looks like he turned on the "match trend line to origin" option on his graphing program.

Meaning both of his r^2 values are wrong.
 
2012-09-28 03:52:12 PM  

DeWayne Mann: roc6783: No clue, I found it from GIS. Here is the blog article it came from: Link

Looks like he turned on the "match trend line to origin" option on his graphing program.

Meaning both of his r^2 values are wrong.


And yet, nothing of value was lost.
 
2012-09-28 04:11:33 PM  

roc6783: DeWayne Mann: roc6783: No clue, I found it from GIS. Here is the blog article it came from: Link

Looks like he turned on the "match trend line to origin" option on his graphing program.

Meaning both of his r^2 values are wrong.

And yet, nothing of value was lost.


What is that, a joke? THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING.
 
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