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(Talking Points Memo)   How Ohio slipped through Rmoney's fingers   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 122
    More: Interesting, Mitt Romney, Ohio, early voting, swing states, swing vote, Ohio Republican Party, John Kasich, Democratic National Convention  
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3907 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Sep 2012 at 10:30 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-27 09:59:43 AM  
Not after he demonstrates the power of this station...
 
2012-09-27 10:32:35 AM  
The only person more disappointed in Romney's Ohio performance is Paul Ryan.
 
2012-09-27 10:32:48 AM  

UberDave: Not after he demonstrates the power of this station...


The power of this computer polling station?

Will the Ohio vote be stolen again?
 
2012-09-27 10:33:15 AM  
Just finished this article:

Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.

Request your ballots Dems! They are going to be surpressing people in person.
 
2012-09-27 10:34:05 AM  
Ohio slipped through Romney's butt. It's what he has been talking out of.
 
2012-09-27 10:36:11 AM  
The way Romney has been campaigning, I don't think votes are really "slipping through his fingers" as much he's "chucking them out the damned window."

Then again, this is a man who seems to be counting electoral votes in terms of potato. So...
 
2012-09-27 10:36:43 AM  

UberDave: Not after he demonstrates the power of this station...


Nicely played, sir.
 
2012-09-27 10:38:08 AM  
He spoke.
 
2012-09-27 10:39:26 AM  
1.bp.blogspot.com
The more you fark that chicken, Romney, the more independent voters will slip through your fingers.
 
2012-09-27 10:39:58 AM  
By accidentally speaking out loud about what he really thinks?
 
2012-09-27 10:41:12 AM  
They keep pushing that "the democrats are oversampled" line. You think that they would see the old people dying off and not being replaced by a younger generation since their social views don't fit anymore.

They said the same thing in 2008 and were clearly wrong then.

My dad is a hard core Republican, and he doesn't know what he will do this fall. I don't know if he can hold his nose and pull the lever this time, and he actually thinks that Romney is intentionally throwing the election. He might be right.
 
2012-09-27 10:41:20 AM  
fta: Eight of the 12 public polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention have shown Romney with at least a 4-point deficit and one on Wednesday showed him down by 10. No Republican candidate has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.

Buckeye state to Romney: Buck You!
 
2012-09-27 10:41:33 AM  
The man exudes insincerity, shallowness, and arrogance with every statement and gesture he makes. What happening is that the more he campaigns the more voters realize this. It's no wonder all the swing states are trending Obama - the more familiar they get with the Mitt the less they like him.
 
2012-09-27 10:41:46 AM  
Since he was a child, he was promised by the Mormon elders that he would be given the Godhood of his own planet when he dies. So perhaps he never really understood that to become leader of just a single country in this world, he has to do more than believe.
 
2012-09-27 10:46:52 AM  
He's gonna lose Ohio because even people who have reliably voted (R) in the last 5 presidental elections thought SB-5 and Kasich was bullshiat. That got the ball rolling even before Mitt was the candidate.

Now mix in a smug, "let them eat cake", buyout/bankrupt a company to pad my bottom line kind of guy and he really SHOULD get his ass kicked here.
 
2012-09-27 10:49:18 AM  
Well, for one,Rmoney thoight detroit was not in Ohio. He would know, he was born there. The problem came when Bain capital open the window of his campaign plane and took 47% of Ohio with it.
 
2012-09-27 10:51:47 AM  
Romdale'd
 
2012-09-27 10:53:53 AM  
We've analyzed the polls, sir, and there is a danger. Should I reduce campaign ad buys in Ohio and divert them to other swing states?

Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances!
 
2012-09-27 10:55:10 AM  
He will easily win most districts around Cincitucky, but Cleveland, Colombus, and pretty much all NE Ohio are very solidly Obama.
 
2012-09-27 10:55:19 AM  

0Icky0: Since he was a child, he was promised by the Mormon elders that he would be given the Godhood of his own planet when he dies. So perhaps he never really understood that to become leader of just a single country in this world, he has to do more than believe.


What is the deal with that anyway? At what point in history did we start trending towards starting religions that even *referenced* outer space, much less made doctrine that there was stuff out there?

I mean, trend may be a strong word, I can only think of Mormonism and Scientology off the top of my head, but still.
 
2012-09-27 10:56:20 AM  
The Stage ad was very effective as well, and mirrored the experiences of a lot of blue collar Ohio workers who had lost their jobs.

It actually reminded me of what happened to my grandpa when they shut down the steel mill and cut all pensions to 30% of what they were promised. He was very close to retirement, too.
 
2012-09-27 10:57:43 AM  

Thrakkerzog: They keep pushing that "the democrats are oversampled" line. You think that they would see the old people dying off and not being replaced by a younger generation since their social views don't fit anymore.


Also, polls that include cell phones generally favor Obama.
 
2012-09-27 10:57:57 AM  
FTA: "Romney's surreptitiously recorded remarks made at a swanky fundraiser earlier this year gave substance to the caricature Obama and Democrats have drawn of the Republican nominee."

It isn't a caricature, it never was, it's just a self-portrait now.
 
2012-09-27 10:58:38 AM  
"You combine the 'let Detroit go bankrupt' quote with the '47 percent' remark and you create a pretty powerful narrative across the country

Add the fact that the more he explains his tax plan the more the middle class figures out they'll be the ones royally screwed over in favor of the upper class and Obama's got one hell of an advantage in Ohio.
 
2012-09-27 11:00:00 AM  

Arkanaut: Thrakkerzog: They keep pushing that "the democrats are oversampled" line. You think that they would see the old people dying off and not being replaced by a younger generation since their social views don't fit anymore.

Also, polls that include cell phones generally favor Obama.


Right. And they live in an echo-chamber where everyone they know has a land line.

It's painful to watch.
 
2012-09-27 11:02:36 AM  
Funny, the current Time magazine has an article about how Ohio is in play for Romney because of the coal industry. All the polls in the east coal counties that voted for Obama in 2008, are now trending toward Romney.
 
2012-09-27 11:02:56 AM  
The deadline to register to vote in Ohio is Oct. 9. Does that seem early to anyone? I'm not familiar with other states, and I understand you can't just suddenly register to vote the day of the election, but doesn't one month prior to election seem a little early?
 
2012-09-27 11:05:15 AM  
I sincerely hope mittens loses big in November. However it would behoove the Democratic party to not count their chickens before they hatch. The GOP is quite crafty when it comes to the final week of an election and has a history of surprising upsets. It ain't over till it's over.
 
2012-09-27 11:09:02 AM  
It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?
 
2012-09-27 11:13:52 AM  
And he would have had it too if it weren't for you meddling kids.
 
2012-09-27 11:14:24 AM  

DeltaPunch: The deadline to register to vote in Ohio is Oct. 9. Does that seem early to anyone? I'm not familiar with other states, and I understand you can't just suddenly register to vote the day of the election, but doesn't one month prior to election seem a little early?


Not really, no. New York's deadline is Oct. 12.
 
2012-09-27 11:14:50 AM  

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?


Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.
 
2012-09-27 11:15:27 AM  

DeltaPunch: The deadline to register to vote in Ohio is Oct. 9. Does that seem early to anyone? I'm not familiar with other states, and I understand you can't just suddenly register to vote the day of the election, but doesn't one month prior to election seem a little early?


Some states do, in fact, allow you to register on election day.

An immigrant family that came in together to register and vote got a round of applause at my polling place four years ago.
 
2012-09-27 11:15:57 AM  
How can it "slip through your fingers" when it was never in your hands to begin with? He's always been a steaming turd of a candidate in Ohio. He barely squeeked by Santorum by 12k votes in the Primary even though he outspent him 4 to 1. There's never been a time when Obama hasn't had a pretty clear lead in Ohio when looking at poll aggregators.
 
2012-09-27 11:17:41 AM  

dinomyar: Funny, the current Time magazine has an article about how Ohio is in play for Romney because of the coal industry. All the polls in the east coal counties that voted for Obama in 2008, are now trending toward Romney.


Time Magazine: We Never Let Reality Stand in the Way of a Narrative
 
2012-09-27 11:17:52 AM  

dinomyar: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?

Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.


That makes sense if you only define "successful" as "maximizing personal wealth" and if the only thing you value is money.
 
2012-09-27 11:20:47 AM  

dinomyar: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?

Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.


This whole post just reeks of false equivalence.
 
2012-09-27 11:27:25 AM  

dinomyar: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?

Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.


I'd rather have the rich asshole who's publicly stated that we should ask people in his rich asshole income bracket to contribute their fair share in taxes, instead of the rich asshole who's publicly stated that people in his rich asshole income bracket need even more money in the form of unpaid tax cuts.
 
2012-09-27 11:28:28 AM  

qorkfiend: dinomyar: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?

Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.

This whole post just reeks of false equivalence.


Correction - it's an argument from false premise, not a false equivalence - if his premises were accurate, the equivalence would not be false.
 
2012-09-27 11:32:59 AM  

Philip Francis Queeg: That makes sense if you only define "successful" as "maximizing personal wealth" and if the only thing you value is money.


This only makes sense if you dont have any understanding as to how business works.
 
2012-09-27 11:33:48 AM  

dinomyar: Funny, the current Time magazine has an article about how Ohio is in play for Romney because of the coal industry. All the polls in the east coal counties that voted for Obama in 2008, are now trending toward Romney.


The same three counties that voted for Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter (in 1980)? All of them that, every year, barely (and by barely I mean 52%) still go for the Dem? Those counties?

Because those counties had 75000 voters in 2008, out of 5.7 million. I'm not that worried if 2k voters shift those counties red, if Obama has a 250k lead statewide. Let me know when Lucas and Cuyahoga counties start trending for the rich white dude. (Hint: unlikely)

DeltaPunch: The deadline to register to vote in Ohio is Oct. 9. Does that seem early to anyone? I'm not familiar with other states, and I understand you can't just suddenly register to vote the day of the election, but doesn't one month prior to election seem a little early?


A month is pretty standard, I think.

mayIFark: Well, for one,Rmoney thoight detroit was not in Ohio. He would know, he was born there. The problem came when Bain capital open the window of his campaign plane and took 47% of Ohio with it.


Well... he's right that Detroit isn't in Ohio. What he forgot was that half the parts that go to Detroit come from Ohio--glass from Toledo, tires from Akron, engines from both of those and Cleveland. Letting Detroit go bankrupt is letting urban Ohio outside Columbus and Cincy go bankrupt.
 
2012-09-27 11:37:29 AM  

Philip Francis Queeg: dinomyar: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: It's really quite simple. Americans, in general, don't like rich assholes. Mitt Romney is a rich asshole. He's every boss you've ever hated. Why would you pick him to be President?

Obama is also a rich asshole. So it boils down to, do you want a very succesful rich asshole, or do you want a moderately rich asshole? If I am going to have a rich asshole running things, I would rather have the very successful one.

That makes sense if you only define "successful" as "maximizing personal wealth" and if the only thing you value is money.


Obama was never really rich until he wrote Dreams of my Father. And IIRC, until The Audacity of Hope came out, he was still paying down his law school student loans.
 
2012-09-27 11:39:40 AM  
Romney is a Christmas Miracle, the gift that keeps on giving. To Obama.
 
2012-09-27 11:41:12 AM  

DeltaPunch: I'd rather have the rich asshole who's publicly stated that we should ask people in his rich asshole income bracket to contribute their fair share in taxes, instead of the rich asshole who's publicly stated that people in his rich asshole income bracket need even more money in the form of unpaid tax cuts.


So you want the hypocrite who says the rich do not pay their fair share of taxes, while he think he pays too much taxes and has to reduce them by taking exemptions, and at the same time bashing the rich for taking the same exemptions.

I rather have the guy who is honest about how he feels about taxes.
 
2012-09-27 11:42:08 AM  
by MIKE FLYNN

Quinnipiac University may have found an absurd number of Democrats for its CBS/NYT's commissioned poll of three swing states, but that can't hide an unmistakeable fact; Obama is losing Independents. Even Quinnipiac's juiced poll shows Obama losing independents to Romney in Ohio and Florida. The poll, unhelpfully, doesn't break down the numbers for Pennsylvania, but virtually every poll conducted this season finds Obama losing Independents. Its a dramatic swing from 2008.

In 2008, Obama won Independents by eight points nationally. On Monday, Politico released a poll showing Romney with a three point lead nationally among Independents. This is an 11 point swing away from Obama since 2008.

This swing is consistent with that found in today's Quinnipiac poll. In 2008, Obama won Florida independents by seven points. Today he trails by three, a 10 point swing. In Ohio, he won Independents by eight, yet trails today by one.

My colleague John Nolte noted this morning that Quinnipiac's poll is implying a massive Democrat turnout, surpassing not only 2008, but anything seen in modern history.
In recent days, pollsters, under fire for heavy Democrat sampling, have responded that they are just reflecting the state of the current electorate. People are just simply identifying as Democrat because they support Obama. If a Democrat wave were really building, though, ought it not be reflected in some way in the Independent vote? Can an Obama wave really be building against a 10 point swing away from him among Independents?

A further problem for Quinnipiac is that there are far fewer Democrat voters in the three states today than there were in 2008. A recent report from the liberal group Third Way found a more than 200k decrease in Democrats and a 20K increase in Republicans in Florida since 2008. How can there be a massive increase in Democrats turning out if there are fewer of them? Democrats outnumbered GOP voters in FL by 800k in 2008. Today? About 400k.

In PA both parties lost voters, but the Democrat decrease was twice the GOP loss. Democrats have lost almost 350k voters since '08 and the GOP has lost around 160k. Their registration advantage over the GOP has narrowed by about 200k voters.

Ohio doesn't register by party, but the state has lost over 500k voters since 2008. The overwhelming amount of the loss was in Democrat-heavy Cuyahoga County. It stands to reason that the GOP's position is better than it was in 2008.

Keep in mind, the level of Independents in these three polls is consistent with the 2008 vote. So, it can't just be that Independents are suddenly identifying as Democrats in these polls.
How the hell are the Democrats going to increase their turnout over 2008 if there are so many fewer of them? Even if they have a strong turnout, their position vis a vis the GOP has weakened in all three states. And Quinnipiac's own poll finds GOP voters more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats. Presumably, Democrats' share of the electorate in '12 will be smaller than '08 even with an equal size turnout. Quinnipiac's inflating it higher is simply fraudulent.
 
2012-09-27 11:44:44 AM  

dinomyar: DeltaPunch: I'd rather have the rich asshole who's publicly stated that we should ask people in his rich asshole income bracket to contribute their fair share in taxes, instead of the rich asshole who's publicly stated that people in his rich asshole income bracket need even more money in the form of unpaid tax cuts.

So you want the hypocrite who says the rich do not pay their fair share of taxes, while he think he pays too much taxes and has to reduce them by taking exemptions, and at the same time bashing the rich for taking the same exemptions.

I rather have the guy who is honest about how he feels about taxes.


That's not even close to what the tax debate is about.
 
2012-09-27 11:46:38 AM  
How does one know when one side is losing? When they start complaining about how all the pollsters are getting it wrong, that's how.

Sorry, Mike Flynn, (whoever you are) It must suck to be a loser.
 
2012-09-27 11:47:07 AM  
The GOP's strategy in Ohio makes no sense, and is catastrophically backfiring. Democrats have two different types of ads here: totally negative against Romney's actions and policies, and Obama explaining how his policies will help the middle class. Romney's ads are at best non sequiturs ("Obama lets China cheat") and at worst complete fabrications ("You didn't build that"). That isn't to say that Democrats have their hands clean, as I saw quite a few of the "Romney killed my wife" ads, but I can't really say that I've seen any Romney ads that explain his policies with anything other than vague platitudes about reducing the debt.

Furthermore the super PACs have gone nuclear on Sherrod Brown, our state senator and union-loving liberal golden boy of Ohio. He's the guy who pretty much defines Midwestern liberalism. Republicans don't realize that every time they run an ad that says "Sherrod Brown is a clone of Obama," they're actually helping Obama, because people love Sherrod Brown. It's Obama that people are wary about, but if he's a lockstep clone of your guy, he must not be all bad.
 
2012-09-27 11:48:46 AM  

tony41454: People are just simply identifying as Democrat because they support Obama. If a Democrat wave were really building, though, ought it not be reflected in some way in the Independent vote? Can an Obama wave really be building against a 10 point swing away from him among Independents?


If they're self-identifying as Democrats, then they're not self-identifying as independents, dumbass
 
2012-09-27 11:50:13 AM  

qorkfiend: That's not even close to what the tax debate is about.


How so? He says the rich does not pay enough taxes and uses too many deductions to avoid paying taxes.
 
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