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(TG Daily)   NASA's head explodes with dark forebodings, too   (tgdaily.com) divider line 74
    More: Cool, NASA, outpost, equilibrium, International Space Station  
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14607 clicks; posted to Main » on 25 Sep 2012 at 12:00 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-09-25 10:33:52 AM
L2 is unstable. Kind of like Syd Barrett.
 
2012-09-25 10:50:07 AM
Cool idea

/never happen
 
2012-09-25 10:54:25 AM
"Tentatively dubbed the "gateway spacecraft," the outpost..."

Gateway Station?


s12.postimage.org
 
2012-09-25 12:02:29 PM
FTFA: As Mark K. Matthews of the Orlando Sentinel notes, the gateway spacecraft - orbiting at 277,000 miles from Earth - would be far more remote than the current International Space Station (ISS) located 200 miles above Earth.

Ya don't say.
 
2012-09-25 12:06:47 PM
Very nice Pink Floyd reference, subby.
 
2012-09-25 12:07:56 PM
I WANNA GO I WANNA GO I WANNA GO!
 
2012-09-25 12:08:26 PM
www.pinkraygun.com

"This will not end well."
 
2012-09-25 12:08:40 PM
Dark side != Far side. You well heeled big wheel.
 
2012-09-25 12:09:00 PM
Oh, you don't want to put stuff on the far side of the moon. That's where the alien bases are. We had to fake the televised moon landings because they killed everyone who went up there when the real landing happened in the '50s.
 
2012-09-25 12:09:48 PM
Not being educated in such matters I don't understand why they can not construct a space craft at the ISS to go to the moon and beyond, it has got to be easier to get there in a sizable craft that is already in orbit.
 
2012-09-25 12:09:56 PM
and the spacecraft that will get us there will fold neatly into a briefcase that we can carry inside to our desk.
 
2012-09-25 12:14:24 PM

Tom_Slick: Not being educated in such matters I don't understand why they can not construct a space craft at the ISS to go to the moon and beyond, it has got to be easier to get there in a sizable craft that is already in orbit.


Because its in a very inclined orbit so the russians could get there. Its in the wrong place. The ISS is in the wrong place. Everytime we have this thread someone has to say it.
 
2012-09-25 12:14:42 PM
and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.
 
2012-09-25 12:15:28 PM
Wonder how much junk is floating around that L2 point, just waiting to smash into something soft.
 
2012-09-25 12:16:39 PM

trappedspirit: Dark side != Far side. You well heeled big wheel.


There is no far side of the moon, really. As a matter of fact, it's all far.
 
2012-09-25 12:18:14 PM

threadjackistan: The ISS is in the wrong place. Everytime we have this thread someone has to say it.


Sorry have missed those comments, and know nothing about orbital mechanics.
 
2012-09-25 12:22:49 PM
So last night the guys and I got together to jam a bit and we were working on "Under Pressure" and I'll be damned if Dave our bassist just didn't start going off about his good times in Miami, girls in bikinis and such. So I walked out and just sat on the grass for a bit and let my girlfriend ride my bike around. I wish I could have given it to her but it was on loan from a friend. I'll give her whatever she wants if she is so inclined.
 
2012-09-25 12:25:32 PM

pag1107: Wonder how much junk is floating around that L2 point, just waiting to smash into something soft.


L2 is dynamically unstable, the Sun's gravity sweeps it clean.

You are thing of L4 and L5, but they are only theoretically dynamically stable.

Now Jupiter's L4 and L5 points are full of rocks.
 
2012-09-25 12:27:15 PM

ZAZ: L2 is unstable. Kind of like Syd Barrett.


You can orbit it in a halo orbit.
 
2012-09-25 12:30:41 PM
Dear NASA:

www.geekzenith.com

Also, can we get Lagrange colonies?
 
2012-09-25 12:36:04 PM

BronyMedic: Dear NASA:

[www.geekzenith.com image 500x313]

Also, can we get Lagrange colonies?


A how-how-how-how would we go about doing that?
 
2012-09-25 12:37:39 PM

Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.


Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.
 
2012-09-25 12:40:34 PM

pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.


citation needed

At any rate, I don't disagree with you. Its going to be expensive regardless, and unmanned probes can only tell us so much.
 
2012-09-25 12:43:49 PM
I agree with the unmanned space trips for now. The moon is close enough to do all the experimentation you need to make manned missions cheaper and more efficient.

Send a small moon base that can self-configure and send a satellite to the point their talking about to relay data. Eventually, (just like the ISS) it can be expanded to be a legit base for future missions.

The ISS trips are fairly routine, so moving such an operation to the moon isn't a very far reaching idea.
 
2012-09-25 12:47:29 PM

AntonChigger: pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.

citation needed

At any rate, I don't disagree with you. Its going to be expensive regardless, and unmanned probes can only tell us so much.


1999-2012 = 1,000,000,000 added
1,000,000,000 / 13 = 76,923,076
76,923,076 / 365 = 210,748 per day
 
2012-09-25 12:48:10 PM

maniacbastard: ZAZ: L2 is unstable. Kind of like Syd Barrett.

You can orbit it in a halo orbit.


That. The bigger issue is that you wouldn't have line of sight communications with the Earth, since there's a big honking moon in the way. Now, L1 on the other hand...
 
2012-09-25 12:51:08 PM
Rumour spreadin' a-'round in that Lunar town
'bout that shack orbiting Lagrange
And you know what I'm talkin' about.
Just let me know if you wanna go
To that home out at Lagrange.
They gotta lotta nice girls ah.

Have mercy.
A haw, haw, haw, haw.
A haw, haw, haw.
 
2012-09-25 12:54:35 PM

pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.


Unless we discover Stargates similar to Heinlein's "Tunnel in the Sky" (that can stay open for extended periods) we will never be able to relieve population pressure here on Earth through space travel. And even if we did, I suspect that the process of shoving 200,000 people per day (about 140 per minute) would be exceedingly cruel and casualty-prone. Not to mention the attrition rate on the virgin planets they would be sent to.

If you sit down and look at the math, however, I think you will see that the world can easily support 9 or even 20 billion people. Food? Water? These are DISTRIBUTION and POLITICAL issues. Get rid of the dictators who use food and water as weapons to control their populations and I think 99% of the problems will go away. Pollution? Technology solutions. AGW (if it exists)? Technology solutions.

The reason to get off Earth are those of racial survival. One of these days a big rock is gonna slap us.
 
2012-09-25 01:07:32 PM

Just Another OC Homeless Guy: pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.

Unless we discover Stargates similar to Heinlein's "Tunnel in the Sky" (that can stay open for extended periods) we will never be able to relieve population pressure here on Earth through space travel. And even if we did, I suspect that the process of shoving 200,000 people per day (about 140 per minute) would be exceedingly cruel and casualty-prone. Not to mention the attrition rate on the virgin planets they would be sent to.

If you sit down and look at the math, however, I think you will see that the world can easily support 9 or even 20 billion people. Food? Water? These are DISTRIBUTION and POLITICAL issues. Get rid of the dictators who use food and water as weapons to control their populations and I think 99% of the problems will go away. Pollution? Technology solutions. AGW (if it exists)? Technology solutions.

The reason to get off Earth are those of racial survival. One of these days a big rock is gonna slap us.


If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated (this number is statistically possible but they believe we'll all kill ourselves off before it happens) population of 125 trillion people in 2300? That number of people would require literally the entire land mass of the Earth to just stand them on with only a handful of square feet each.

We're talking about needing radically different ways of living, floating sky cities, underwater countries, space colonies, or giving up the entire position of bodied existence, or genetically engineering us to photosynthesize. There will come a time when we still exist as homo sapiens, there simply won't be enough space for us to stand on this planet, and what happens then? We stop breeding, stagnate, and control our population, or we find some other place to live.
 
2012-09-25 01:26:22 PM
Won't the Nazi's holed up on the far side of the Moon be pissed we are doing this?

Or did we come to some arrangement ? Are we renting space from them?
 
2012-09-25 01:33:59 PM
During the full moon phase, isn't all communication with Earth going to be blacked out?
 
2012-09-25 01:43:34 PM

trappedspirit: Dark side != Far side. You well heeled big wheel.


Well, there's no dark side of the moon, either, of course.

People forget the whole quote goes, "There is no dark side in the moon, really. As a matter of fact it's all dark, and it's the sun that sets it alight."

/Who ever said doormen can't be geniuses?
 
2012-09-25 01:50:23 PM

Mr. Carpenter: If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated ... population of 125 trillion people in 2300?


125 trillion? Bullshiat! UN population estimates average about the 9 billion in the year 2300...about half again as many people as Earth has now. Only by extending the growth rate of the second half of the 20th century to they even ger as high as 35 billion. Nowhere close to even one trillion, much less 125 times that.

Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.
 
2012-09-25 01:50:27 PM

ManRay: Won't the Nazi's holed up on the far side of the Moon be pissed we are doing this?

Or did we come to some arrangement ? Are we renting space from them?


It's okay--all taken care of:
gigaom2.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-09-25 02:14:18 PM

StoneColdAtheist: Mr. Carpenter: If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated ... population of 125 trillion people in 2300?

125 trillion? Bullshiat! UN population estimates average about the 9 billion in the year 2300...about half again as many people as Earth has now. Only by extending the growth rate of the second half of the 20th century to they even ger as high as 35 billion. Nowhere close to even one trillion, much less 125 times that.

Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.


My bad you're right, it's not 125 trillion, I was just working from memory. It's actually 134 trillion, so even higher. I'm guessing you have zero reading comprehension and zero access to google since the study is LITERALLY the top link when you type in "UN population estimates 2300."

Goddamn you're an idiot. Read my post, read what I said, use google to figure it out for yourself.
 
2012-09-25 02:18:51 PM

StoneColdAtheist: Mr. Carpenter: If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated ... population of 125 trillion people in 2300?

125 trillion? Bullshiat! UN population estimates average about the 9 billion in the year 2300...about half again as many people as Earth has now. Only by extending the growth rate of the second half of the 20th century to they even ger as high as 35 billion. Nowhere close to even one trillion, much less 125 times that.

Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.


Oh and instead of cherry picking graphs and selectively EDITING MY POST to change what I said, specifically removing the (this is statistically possible BUT...) part, how about you trying being a little bit more ethical and a little bit less dis-ingenious

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300 f inal.pdf
 
2012-09-25 02:24:47 PM

ObiWanSpicoli: I could have given it to her but it was on loan from a friend. I'll give her whatever she wants if she is so inclined.


I bet she really meshes with your existence.
 
2012-09-25 02:25:06 PM

StoneColdAtheist: Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.


Doubtful
 
2012-09-25 02:51:04 PM
The population's not going to get that high. We'll have a nice big war any day now to start thinning things out.
 
2012-09-25 02:56:27 PM

Mr. Carpenter: StoneColdAtheist: Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.

Oh and instead of cherry picking graphs and selectively EDITING MY POST to change what I said, specifically removing the (this is statistically possible BUT...) part, how about you trying being a little bit more ethical and a little bit less dis-ingenious

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300 f inal.pdf


Get over yourself, asshat. It is not even "statistically possible". Your own source notes that "A fifth scenario is added by simply extending the constant-fertility scenario in the 2002 Revision, therefore holding total fertility indefinitely at its level in 1995-2000. This scenario produces an unrealistic, and almost unimaginable world population of 134 trillion by 2300."

That word "unrealistic" doesn't mean "statistically possible"...it means it can't happen. Here's why: we currently produce enough food on Earth to feed about half again as many people as we do now (due to spoilage, waste, diverting grains into fuels production, etc.). By careful management we could probably double our acreage under cultivation, which would get us to ~20 billion. We could also probably double our production rate per acre, which might get us to 40 billion, though at that number we'd be susceptible to random mass starvation due to hiccups in production and distribution.

Let's say we could get to 50 billion with careful, world-wide management. That's one-twentieth of ONE trillion. Nowhere near 134 trillion. What's more, other studies that include such factors as forced relocation (off farmable land into towns and cities) and forced reallocation of resources still don't come up with even 1% of that 134 trillion.

The only thing that number proves is that someone at the UN knows how to program a simple equation into a computer.

PallMall: StoneColdAtheist: Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.

Doubtful


We'll all look like Brazilians and speak Chinglish.
 
2012-09-25 02:57:22 PM
As the population increases, the horror of a single death becomes less and less, relatively speaking. It used to be a thousandth of the horror of everybody dying but now it`s only 1/7,000,000,000.

Hardly worth noting.
 
2012-09-25 03:01:06 PM
Amazing how an article on the next step to a proper functioning space industry turns into a malthusian mud slinging match.

It`s why I read these things, always interesting. I was expecting a certain earth bound dismissive poster to remind us that it`s all impossible again and yet here we are.
 
2012-09-25 03:03:13 PM

StoneColdAtheist: We'll all look like Brazilians ashes and speak Chinglish be homes for roaches.


FTFY
 
2012-09-25 03:09:43 PM

Mr. Carpenter: StoneColdAtheist: Mr. Carpenter: If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated ... population of 125 trillion people in 2300?

125 trillion? Bullshiat! UN population estimates average about the 9 billion in the year 2300...about half again as many people as Earth has now. Only by extending the growth rate of the second half of the 20th century to they even ger as high as 35 billion. Nowhere close to even one trillion, much less 125 times that.

Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.


Um....We hit 7,000,000,000 earlier this year. We are currently at 7,041,000,000. We will hit 7.1 in July next year, 10 months from now. 2300.... we will hit 7.5 in less than 6 years from now. We will be scarring the h3ll out of 9B by the time today's newborn graduates high school.

It will take a mass extinction event to get us back to 6B.
 
2012-09-25 03:11:49 PM
We're not going to make it, are we?
 
2012-09-25 03:23:40 PM
So why not let India take the lead at colonizing space? They seem to have the edge at educating engineers these days and can afford to lose astronauts at a larger rate. Hell they'll probably drop more off the outside of the train in Mumbai on the way to work than they'll lose by explody rocketships.
 
2012-09-25 03:24:59 PM

mrexcess: We're not going to make it, are we?


We are a frontier exploring species. We could populate the universe. The end of Earth is not near, but it is on borrowed time.
 
2012-09-25 03:44:04 PM
pxsteel: I don't worry about the end of the Earth so much... it's a big ball of rock. Pretty, but ultimately just a thing. My concern is for us. Our technological progress seems to be vastly outstripping our moral progress, which seems to be setting us up for some calamities.
 
2012-09-25 04:05:48 PM

StoneColdAtheist: Mr. Carpenter: StoneColdAtheist: Most population scientists think our population will peak at about 7.5 billion later this century before dropping to about half our present 6 billion. Earth will be a very nice place to live in the year 2300.

Oh and instead of cherry picking graphs and selectively EDITING MY POST to change what I said, specifically removing the (this is statistically possible BUT...) part, how about you trying being a little bit more ethical and a little bit less dis-ingenious

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300 f inal.pdf

Get over yourself, asshat. It is not even "statistically possible". Your own source notes that "A fifth scenario is added by simply extending the constant-fertility scenario in the 2002 Revision, therefore holding total fertility indefinitely at its level in 1995-2000. This scenario produces an unrealistic, and almost unimaginable world population of 134 trillion by 2300."

That word "unrealistic" doesn't mean "statistically possible"...it means it can't happen. Here's why: we currently produce enough food on Earth to feed about half again as many people as we do now (due to spoilage, waste, diverting grains into fuels production, etc.). By careful management we could probably double our acreage under cultivation, which would get us to ~20 billion. We could also probably double our production rate per acre, which might get us to 40 billion, though at that number we'd be susceptible to random mass starvation due to hiccups in production and distribution.

Let's say we could get to 50 billion with careful, world-wide management. That's one-twentieth of ONE trillion. Nowhere near 134 trillion. What's more, other studies that include such factors as forced relocation (off farmable land into towns and cities) and forced reallocation of resources still don't come up with even 1% of that 134 trillion.

The only thing that number proves is that someone at the UN knows how to program a simple equation in ...


Herper derper goddamn you can't even count to potato can you? Did you even read the post you initially responded to? Did you? Did you at all? And IT IS POSSIBLE it would require that fertility rates STAY THE EXACT SAME which they don't think would happen. But uh, basically it said "if the trends we are experiencing right now continue on unchanged for 300 years there will be 134 trillion people, this is an unfeasible and untenable situation.

Can you not read at all? Really? Do you even UNDERSTAND what we're arguing about here? Did you even read my post and the HYPOTHETICAL question it posed? I said "what happens IF" and linked to an outlier but possible scenario presented by one of the biggest and most comprehensive studies.

Goddamn either you can't read or you're just trying to be argumentative for argument's sake.
 
2012-09-25 04:17:31 PM

HAMMERTOE: ObiWanSpicoli: I could have given it to her but it was on loan from a friend. I'll give her whatever she wants if she is so inclined.

I bet she really meshes with your existence.


And that of your mouse Gerald, who I hear is aging well.
 
2012-09-25 04:35:20 PM
farm8.staticflickr.com

Does not agree with their foolish plan.
 
2012-09-25 05:04:30 PM

pxsteel: Um....We hit 7,000,000,000 earlier this year. We are currently at 7,041,000,000. We will hit 7.1 in July next year, 10 months from now. 2300.... we will hit 7.5 in less than 6 years from now. We will be scarring the h3ll out of 9B by the time today's newborn graduates high school.

It will take a mass extinction event to get us back to 6B.


6 billion...7 billion..whatever. It's going to go up by about half, maybe even double depending on longevity advances, then slowly drop over the next several hundred years. It isn't going to do anything even remotely like any kind of Malthusian solution.

Mr. Carpenter: Goddamn either you can't read or you're just trying to be argumentative for argument's sake.


Okay, got your number now...it's "Troll...and not a very good one". Sorry about missing that. It's been a busy morning.
 
2012-09-25 05:12:12 PM

Mr. Carpenter: Just Another OC Homeless Guy: pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.

Unless we discover Stargates similar to Heinlein's "Tunnel in the Sky" (that can stay open for extended periods) we will never be able to relieve population pressure here on Earth through space travel. And even if we did, I suspect that the process of shoving 200,000 people per day (about 140 per minute) would be exceedingly cruel and casualty-prone. Not to mention the attrition rate on the virgin planets they would be sent to.

If you sit down and look at the math, however, I think you will see that the world can easily support 9 or even 20 billion people. Food? Water? These are DISTRIBUTION and POLITICAL issues. Get rid of the dictators who use food and water as weapons to control their populations and I think 99% of the problems will go away. Pollution? Technology solutions. AGW (if it exists)? Technology solutions.

The reason to get off Earth are those of racial survival. One of these days a big rock is gonna slap us.

If by "technology solutions" you mean engineering people to not need food and water, I can agree with you, but eventually we will reach a point in time where if we still have the same kind of bodied existence we do now, there simply won't be enough space on the planet for everyone. What happens if the UN's estimated (this number is statistically possible but they believe we'll all kill ourselves off before it happens) population of 125 trillion people in 2300? That number of people would requ ...


citation?
 
2012-09-25 05:20:09 PM
t1.gstatic.com
Meh.....
 
2012-09-25 05:40:53 PM

mrexcess: pxsteel: I don't worry about the end of the Earth so much... it's a big ball of rock. Pretty, but ultimately just a thing. My concern is for us. Our technological progress seems to be vastly outstripping our moral progress, which seems to be setting us up for some calamities.


Which thought leads me to question the assumptions of many people that aliens would be necessarily wise, friendly and helpful. Another reason to get off this rock.

It should scare the living crap out of you
 
2012-09-25 06:10:56 PM
ecx.images-amazon.com
 
2012-09-25 06:36:01 PM
Will we get these too?
www.forevergeek.com
 
2012-09-25 06:40:23 PM

StoneColdAtheist: pxsteel: Um....We hit 7,000,000,000 earlier this year. We are currently at 7,041,000,000. We will hit 7.1 in July next year, 10 months from now. 2300.... we will hit 7.5 in less than 6 years from now. We will be scarring the h3ll out of 9B by the time today's newborn graduates high school.

It will take a mass extinction event to get us back to 6B.

6 billion...7 billion..whatever. It's going to go up by about half, maybe even double depending on longevity advances, then slowly drop over the next several hundred years. It isn't going to do anything even remotely like any kind of Malthusian solution.


What is going to make it decline over the next several hundred years? Longevity is going to continue to increase.
 
2012-09-25 06:57:18 PM
pxsteel: 6 billion...7 billion..whatever. It's going to go up by about half, maybe even double depending on longevity advances, then slowly drop over the next several hundred years. It isn't going to do anything even remotely like any kind of Malthusian solution.

pxsteel: StoneColdAtheist: What is going to make it decline over the next several hundred years? Longevity is going to continue to increase.


Birth rates are droppping in all developed nations. In some places, like Europe, they are below replacement level (2 children per couple). Continued advancement in other nations towards higher standards of living will drive birth rates down over the next century.

Assuming, of course, that the third-world nations can get their acts together and start educating their masses and start industrializing. If that does not happen, there is always plague and starvation to keep the population under control.
 
2012-09-25 07:02:18 PM
L2 in 2022!
 
2012-09-25 07:11:09 PM

pxsteel: StoneColdAtheist: It's going to go up by about half, maybe even double depending on longevity advances, then slowly drop over the next several hundred years. It isn't going to do anything even remotely like any kind of Malthusian solution.

What is going to make it decline over the next several hundred years? Longevity is going to continue to increase.


While I agree that longevity is going to continue to increase, several 'social engineering' factors lead me to believe the global population will start to drop later this century.

First of all, I doubt longevity increases will be universal accessible, just as quality health care is not today. The wealthy will be able to afford it, while the working and idle poor will not. On a related note I believe access to longevity will emerge as the great social justice issue of the next century. In the meantime, a couple of billion of those alive today will die off.

Second, in virtually every case looked at over the past century, fertility drops dramatically as soon as more than half of children born reach their 5th birthday. Add in the effects of education and the migration off the rice paddy into the city and that simply accelerates.

Numerous countries are ALREADY below replacement rates and the steepest ongoing drops are in the poorest countries that have traditionally had high fertility rates. Add in efforts to bring birth control to those corners of the world where women don't yet have it and the decline will spread there too. In coming decades I suspect more and more young adults will simply decline to become parents.

Okay, so much for the income stream. Now lets look at the exit stream. The world's population is aging rapidly, with most of those newly elderly in developing countries where they are more likely to die.

www.imf.org

That means only a relatively small fraction of those alive today will see the year 2100, much less 2300, which means we'll be starting the era of long lifes after more people alive today are dead.

Ennui. Even after most people have access to life extension technology, many will opt out for a variety of reasons. This is the most speculative notion I put forward here, and I could be totally wrong, but when centuries of life become possible I suspect that there will be a demand for a universal right to end one's life painlessly.

Anyway, this is a fascinating subject to me, but this is enough for now...back to work! ;)
 
2012-09-25 09:24:29 PM
Considering the ISS is the most expensive thing ever created by man, 150-170 billion dollars currently, and took the cooperation of almost every significant country on earth, I dont feel confident about building a bigger badder version by the moon.

If anything, maybe they should relocate the ISS and make it fit the new mission parameters.

(Oh, and we dont even HAVE the technology anymore we originally used to put it up there and assemble it... ie the space shuttle)
 
2012-09-25 09:49:11 PM

mrexcess: pxsteel: I don't worry about the end of the Earth so much... it's a big ball of rock. Pretty, but ultimately just a thing. My concern is for us. Our technological progress seems to be vastly outstripping our moral progress, which seems to be setting us up for some calamities.


Moral progress? Surely you jest. The morals people display in public may have improved, but the morals by which the next generation will actually operate were formed in the age of reality TV, where we are all taught that in order to win, we must give in to our basest urges.

In the future we may look like Brazilians and speak Chinglish, but on the inside we'll be Gollum crooning to his Precious.

/i know i am
 
2012-09-25 09:53:29 PM

Loadmaster: pxsteel: 6 billion...7 billion..whatever. It's going to go up by about half, maybe even double depending on longevity advances, then slowly drop over the next several hundred years. It isn't going to do anything even remotely like any kind of Malthusian solution.

pxsteel: StoneColdAtheist: What is going to make it decline over the next several hundred years? Longevity is going to continue to increase.

Birth rates are droppping in all developed nations.


Birth rates are dropping on a per female basis. 2.3 to 2.1. The problem that is conviently left out is the sheer number of fertile females is higher than it has ever been. We have reached perpetuality. Despite the drop in birth rate per, the overall growth rate is increasing. 30 years ago we were only adding 185,000 per day, 15 years ago we were adding 195,000 and today we are adding 210,000+. China instituted a 1 child policy and added 3/4 off a billion.
 
2012-09-25 10:14:09 PM

pxsteel: Birth rates are dropping on a per female basis. 2.3 to 2.1. The problem that is conviently left out is the sheer number of fertile females is higher than it has ever been. We have reached perpetuality. Despite the drop in birth rate per, the overall growth rate is increasing. 30 years ago we were only adding 185,000 per day, 15 years ago we were adding 195,000 and today we are adding 210,000+. China instituted a 1 child policy and added 3/4 off a billion.


Nobody "left it out"...it's right that in plain sight on the graph I linked to. Now look to the left of that cohort. Those women aren't reproducing themselves, so within 20 years their numbers will begin dropping as fewer young women enter their child bearing years. Combine that with the inevitable further declines in fertility rates and the deaths of a few billion boomers and we're looking at real declines in global population starting later this century.
 
2012-09-25 11:34:38 PM

DECMATH: HAMMERTOE: ObiWanSpicoli: I could have given it to her but it was on loan from a friend. I'll give her whatever she wants if she is so inclined.

I bet she really meshes with your existence.

And that of your mouse Gerald, who I hear is aging well.


I don't know why I call him that.
 
2012-09-26 03:03:39 AM
The problem is that the Moon has military use. If we put people on the Moon, sooner or later they will develop a self-sufficient colony and declare independence. This is what our military fears. and the military is still very influential in NASA. We could have had a Moon colony a decade or two ago if not for this fear. And they are still talking about bypassing the Moon. (Read some science fiction, or do the calculations, and you will see how easy it is to attack the Earth from the Moon, but not vice versa.)

Private enterprise will get humans into space. We'll never make it at this rate if we rely on the government and the military with their fear of creating something they can't control.
 
2012-09-26 03:55:36 AM

Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.


Have you ever made a statement that wasn't pants on head stupid?
 
2012-09-26 06:10:41 AM

ObiWanSpicoli: DECMATH: HAMMERTOE: ObiWanSpicoli: I could have given it to her but it was on loan from a friend. I'll give her whatever she wants if she is so inclined.

I bet she really meshes with your existence.

And that of your mouse Gerald, who I hear is aging well.

I don't know why I call him that.


although I hear he is rather well behaved.
 
2012-09-26 09:09:31 AM

pxsteel: Um....We hit 7,000,000,000 earlier this year. We are currently at 7,041,000,000. We will hit 7.1 in July next year, 10 months from now. 2300.... we will hit 7.5 in less than 6 years from now. We will be scarring the h3ll out of 9B by the time today's newborn graduates high school.

It will take a mass extinction event to get us back to 6B.


Nah it won't.
It will take the most populous nations becoming 1st-world powers with modern economies.

It is well documented that populations tend to decrease as environments become more urbanized. Children become a financial liability instead of an asset, as they are in a traditional farm/agrarian area where they can supply labor and be a sort of "retirement plan" for their parents. This is already happening in China, and India is modernizing as well, and those are two of the worlds most populated nations. In the U.S. our birth rate is already behind the replacement rate; our population mostly grows by immigration. IMHO, over time, world population will eventually come to equilibrium at lower than current levels.
 
2012-09-26 11:28:48 AM

AntonChigger: pxsteel: Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.

Too expensive, compared to what? We are adding people to the planet at a rate of 210,000 per day. We are going to blink and there will be 9,000,000,000 of us. We better start learning how to get off this rock.

citation needed

At any rate, I don't disagree with you. Its going to be expensive regardless, and unmanned probes can only tell us so much.


like any apex species that outgrows its natural resources, we too will see a correction in population as food and water naturally bring our population under control. that and the violence, followed by disease that will spread from all the bodies.
 
2012-09-26 12:00:50 PM

Linux_Yes: and they want the taxpayer to foot the bill too. that way, the tax payer takes the risks/foots the bill, and the contract companies make any profits that come out of the research. that there is Freedom, baby! Socialists!!


they need to stick with unmanned space trips. manned is way too expensive.


No it isn't. Manned space travel is entirely affordable, we just have to have the will to go. If we can bomb brown people regularly, we can have manned spaceflight.
 
2012-09-26 12:04:04 PM
Also, I vote it be called Armstrong Station.
 
2012-09-27 02:50:23 AM
And now for something completely different . . .

My first thought was, "How convenient! We can't actually SEE anything on the far side of the moon. NASA could use all the billions of dollars on keg parties while telling us what a great job they are doing building the invisible (literally, unseeable) space station on the far side of the moon."

Great scam. Kind of like the newsletter the psychic will channel directly to your brain if you pay her $100. How would you know if she is or isn't sending it?

--- just idly thinking about stuff. Sure NASA would never do anything so low. ---
 
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