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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver: If Romney wants to win, he needs to go for broke and try to win Pennsylvania and Michigan   (nytimes.com) divider line 128
    More: Interesting, Pennsylvania, swing states, electoral colleges, FiveThirtyEight  
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2966 clicks; posted to Politics » on 18 Sep 2012 at 12:34 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-18 12:36:54 PM
Well, Mitt hasn't run a single ad in PA for over a month, and almost all his Super Pacs have followed suit. Meanwhile Obama has hit the state hard with ads, and has the relatively popular Rendell working overtime stumping for him.
 
2012-09-18 12:36:59 PM
Yeah, like that's going to happen.
 
2012-09-18 12:37:08 PM
Spend Mitt Spend!
 
2012-09-18 12:37:19 PM
Ya, good luck.
 
2012-09-18 12:37:23 PM
In Michigan he can start by reading his editorial explaining why Detroit should have gone bankrupt.
 
2012-09-18 12:37:42 PM
Mitt Romney... Go Broke... never thought I'd see those two phrases together.
 
2012-09-18 12:38:12 PM
Down 11% in Pennsylvania. Not. Going. to. Happen.
 
2012-09-18 12:39:06 PM
Only way he can win PA is voter suppression. Only way he can win Michigan is with a time machine.
 
2012-09-18 12:39:22 PM
cbssacramento.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-09-18 12:43:24 PM

The very best line of the article:

The voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are almost entirely white and mostly rural - factors that ordinarily favor Republicans. But they are also highly educated, which gives Democrats a chance.
 

Bwahahahahaha. Republican rely on stupidity.
 
2012-09-18 12:43:53 PM
I'm from Michigan and I'm voting Obama along with my mom and brothers. A Michigan friend of ours is going to college in Ohio and he's going to vote Obama there.
 
2012-09-18 12:43:54 PM

Lost Thought 00: Well, Mitt hasn't run a single ad in PA for over a month, and almost all his Super Pacs have followed suit. Meanwhile Obama has hit the state hard with ads, and has the relatively popular Rendell working overtime stumping for him.


Rmoney has that state wrapped up with that voter suppression thing.
 
2012-09-18 12:44:17 PM
Nate shut up! Stop giving the stupid people help!!!
 
2012-09-18 12:45:04 PM
cdn100.iofferphoto.com

he has a better chance at challenging obama to a game, winner gets to be prez
 
2012-09-18 12:45:38 PM
Mitt, just make your concession speech now and save us all the trouble.
 
2012-09-18 12:46:13 PM
Isn't he down like 10 points in Michigan?
 
2012-09-18 12:46:14 PM

Biff_Steel: Lost Thought 00: Well, Mitt hasn't run a single ad in PA for over a month, and almost all his Super Pacs have followed suit. Meanwhile Obama has hit the state hard with ads, and has the relatively popular Rendell working overtime stumping for him.

Rmoney has that state wrapped up with that voter suppression thing.


Personally, I think that is going to backfire on them. The people most likely to have trouble getting IDs are rural and elderly. The poor in the cities have so much infrastructure around them, ie: it's so much easier to deliver information to them, that I think more Republican voters will end up being turned away overall. At worst, I think it will be a wash
 
2012-09-18 12:47:32 PM
I hope Mitt spends $2 billion and still loses.
 
2012-09-18 12:51:20 PM

Corvus: Nate shut up! Stop giving the stupid people help!!!


He works for the NY Times, they won't pay attention.

/Anyway, Romney seems to enjoy his alternate reality where he thinks he'll win every state by 20%
 
2012-09-18 12:51:43 PM
Fark you Romney. I will vote for you on a cold day in hell. And you know what? If you try to 'fight' for PA, I will campaign for Obama. Hell, I'll join the folks signing people up for voter registration outside of Rittenhouse Sq. Just because fark you.
 
2012-09-18 12:53:39 PM
If Romney wants to win, he'll have to take great strides toward not being Mitt Romney.
 
2012-09-18 12:54:14 PM

CanuckInCA: I hope Mitt spends $2 billion and still loses.


Oddly enough, has not contributed a single dime of his own money to the campaign. He did contribute a large amount in 2008, however
 
2012-09-18 12:56:38 PM
WaPo, Sep 12-16, Virginia Link

Likely voters
Obama 52, Romney 44

Registered voters
Obama 50, Romney 43
 
2012-09-18 12:56:58 PM
Nate Silver: If Romney wants to win, he needs to go for broke and try to win Pennsylvania and Michigan switch identities with Obama

FTFY
 
2012-09-18 12:57:42 PM

Lost Thought 00: Personally, I think that is going to backfire on them. The people most likely to have trouble getting IDs are rural and elderly. The poor in the cities have so much infrastructure around them, ie: it's so much easier to deliver information to them, that I think more Republican voters will end up being turned away overall. At worst, I think it will be a wash



They can do what they did in Ohio in 2004, and just allocate a ridiculously low number of ballot machines to heavy Democratic districts. This will cause poor voters who are trying to vote on their break, or between shifts, or are reliant on specific bus schedules to have to leave the polling place before they are able to cast a vote because the lines are too long.
 
2012-09-18 12:58:15 PM
I was really enjoying the lack of Romney ads since he gave up on his "home" state.
 
2012-09-18 12:58:42 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: WaPo, Sep 12-16, Virginia Link

Likely voters
Obama 52, Romney 44

Registered voters
Obama 50, Romney 43


Their last poll there, on May 2, showed Obama with a 7 point lead. So they are generally Obama-leaning in their polls.
 
2012-09-18 12:59:30 PM
(The same polls that indicated support for Scott Walker also suggested that a majority of voters want four more years of Obama.)

I just don't get Wisconsin.
 
2012-09-18 01:04:37 PM
I heard some corporate douchebag at a bar near Hartford last weekend say that he wouldn't be surprised if Romney won CONNECTICUT.

Yeah, that'll farking happen. It's the only state that went even more blue in 2010. We've elected the first Democrat governor in decades, decriminalized pot and banned the death penalty. This state hasn't voted for a Republican President since 1988.
 
2012-09-18 01:04:49 PM
He will also have to stop saying stupid things.
 
2012-09-18 01:05:22 PM
There's only one way for Mitt to win: election edition cage match. Rmoney vs Obama. Live!

/Oh yes, there will be blood.
//Obama would so win this.
///Unless Mitt sent Ann in.
 
2012-09-18 01:05:31 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-09-18 01:06:17 PM
I dunno, here in Pennsyltucky I'm dismayed by how strongly everyone around me is in support of Anyone-But-Obama. Everyone in Pittsburgh and Philly better get out and vote. Twice if they have to.
 
2012-09-18 01:08:08 PM

Lost Thought 00: Oddly enough, has not contributed a single dime of his own money to the campaign. He did contribute a large amount in 2008, however


A cardinal rule of campaigns is to never spend your own money. First, if you cannot raise what you need to win, you shouldn't be in the campaign at all -- it's an indication of what kind of support you actually have. Next, even if you win you're going to become very desperate to payback your loan to the campaign and may find yourself much more willing to ask certain people for money who you really don't want showing up on your campaign finance reports (e.g. lobbyists).
 
2012-09-18 01:09:18 PM

amindtat: I dunno, here in Pennsyltucky I'm dismayed by how strongly everyone around me is in support of Anyone-But-Obama. Everyone in Pittsburgh and Philly better get out and vote. Twice if they have to.


It's the same way in NY. Step outside Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Albany/NYC, and you're in "we'll even vote for a f*ckstick like Romney" country.
 
2012-09-18 01:10:42 PM

Pincy: In Michigan he can start by reading his editorial explaining why Detroit should have gone bankrupt.


You mean the one where he said the same thing Obama did, with the exception of government loans vs private loans?
 
2012-09-18 01:12:20 PM

WhackingDay: Isn't he down like 10 points in Michigan?


Wayne county, it's the only reason democrats win in Michigan.
 
2012-09-18 01:16:00 PM

johnnyrocket: The very best line of the article:

The voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are almost entirely white and mostly rural - factors that ordinarily favor Republicans. But they are also highly educated, which gives Democrats a chance. 

Bwahahahahaha. Republican rely on stupidity.


I saw that too.
 
2012-09-18 01:17:14 PM

thornhill: A cardinal rule of campaigns being rich is to never spend your own money.


FTFY
 
2012-09-18 01:18:35 PM

Lost Thought 00: Biff_Steel: Lost Thought 00: Well, Mitt hasn't run a single ad in PA for over a month, and almost all his Super Pacs have followed suit. Meanwhile Obama has hit the state hard with ads, and has the relatively popular Rendell working overtime stumping for him.

Rmoney has that state wrapped up with that voter suppression thing.

Personally, I think that is going to backfire on them. The people most likely to have trouble getting IDs are rural and elderly. The poor in the cities have so much infrastructure around them, ie: it's so much easier to deliver information to them, that I think more Republican voters will end up being turned away overall. At worst, I think it will be a wash


Actually, I think the way it works is this: Cletus, the white 89 year old who sits behind the desk who checks voters in will let some irregularities slide for his neighbor, who lost his license due to bad eyesight earlier in the year, but will fight tooth and nail against the scary black dude who doesn't have or need a license.
 
2012-09-18 01:18:44 PM

I alone am best: Pincy: In Michigan he can start by reading his editorial explaining why Detroit should have gone bankrupt.

You mean the one where he said the same thing Obama did, with the exception of government loans vs private loans?


There were no private loans available at the time. If the government didn't loan them the money they would have indeed gone bankrupt. We've been over this a million times. Are you really that obtuse or do you just play one on TV?
 
2012-09-18 01:19:05 PM
Yeah. In Michigan, Mittens should go for broke after he said "let GM go broke." Put your resources into that, Rmoney. See how you do.
 
2012-09-18 01:19:44 PM

quatchi: (The same polls that indicated support for Scott Walker also suggested that a majority of voters want four more years of Obama.)

I just don't get Wisconsin.


Walker's recall campaign heavily used the argument that recalling someone because you don't agree with their political views is abuse of a democratic safeguard. He didn't defend his policies but instead made a broader appeal that he was elected to serve a set term and at the end of that term is the proper time to decide whether he should be reelected. Recalling a sitting governor due to the legislation they sign sets a dangerous precident that would be used by the losing party in future contentious elections.

You have to admit the argument is a pretty good appeal in the case of an unpopular incumbent (sort of like "don't switch horses midstream"), and it won the day. Exit polls showed the biggest reason that he wasn't recalled was the voters were uncomfortable with the idea of the recall itself, not because they supported Walker.
 
2012-09-18 01:20:36 PM

I alone am best: WhackingDay: Isn't he down like 10 points in Michigan?

Wayne county, it's the only reason democrats win in Michigan.


You mean that the Democrats win Michigan because more people vote for Democrats? Shocking.

You should write a hard-hitting expose with this newfound knowledge.
 
2012-09-18 01:20:47 PM
The only reason Romney isn't running ads in PA is because he thinks he already won that state because of voter suppression.
 
2012-09-18 01:21:32 PM

Grungehamster: quatchi: (The same polls that indicated support for Scott Walker also suggested that a majority of voters want four more years of Obama.)

I just don't get Wisconsin.

Walker's recall campaign heavily used the argument that recalling someone because you don't agree with their political views is abuse of a democratic safeguard. He didn't defend his policies but instead made a broader appeal that he was elected to serve a set term and at the end of that term is the proper time to decide whether he should be reelected. Recalling a sitting governor due to the legislation they sign sets a dangerous precident that would be used by the losing party in future contentious elections.

You have to admit the argument is a pretty good appeal in the case of an unpopular incumbent (sort of like "don't switch horses midstream"), and it won the day. Exit polls showed the biggest reason that he wasn't recalled was the voters were uncomfortable with the idea of the recall itself, not because they supported Walker.


So then why even have the ability to use a recall election on the book in the first place? That's the stupidest argument I've ever heard.
 
2012-09-18 01:22:35 PM

Lost Thought 00: Well, Mitt hasn't run a single ad in PA for over a month, and almost all his Super Pacs have followed suit. Meanwhile Obama has hit the state hard with ads, and has the relatively popular Rendell working overtime stumping for him.


It's kind of amusing and fascinating to me that politics has basically reached the point where it's a resource management strategy game, not unlike M.U.L.E. or Civilization. "Dump X amount of advertising money into this state, receive Y percent polling increase". And it works too.
 
2012-09-18 01:22:39 PM

PonceAlyosha: The only reason Romney isn't running ads in PA is because he thinks he already won that state because of voter suppression.


That's been said before and I didn't believe it. Based on the fundraiser videos yesterday, I actually think I believe it now.
 
2012-09-18 01:23:20 PM
Last poll I saw said Obama was already leading in PA and steadily gaining support. I think Romney's outta luck there. He'd be better off focusing on Virginia or Ohio, in my expert opinion.
 
2012-09-18 01:23:37 PM
At last check, Rmoney was down by 11 points in Pennsylvania, and Michigan isn't even considered a swing state. He'd have better luck trying to win the 2 electoral votes from Newt Gingrich's moon colony.
 
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