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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver has Obama down to a 78% chance of winning. ERMAGERD FREEFALL   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 140
    More: Unlikely, obama  
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3458 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Sep 2012 at 4:35 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-14 02:34:27 PM
*freeferl

/gert ert strert
 
2012-09-14 02:37:07 PM
Even the 90+% in the Nowcast is too low for comfort.
 
2012-09-14 02:39:55 PM

DamnYankees: Even the 90+% in the Nowcast is too low for comfort.


jesus. THIS.

i can't imagine a possibility of the liar winning.
 
2012-09-14 02:42:23 PM

DamnYankees: Even the 90+% in the Nowcast is too low for comfort.


The 2008 election day forecast only got to 90%.
But, aside from that... yes.
 
2012-09-14 02:48:40 PM
Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?
 
2012-09-14 02:52:13 PM

coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?


I actually think he does. He wrote an article about the voter ID laws and how it affected his analysis.
 
2012-09-14 02:56:03 PM

coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?


Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.
 
2012-09-14 02:58:11 PM
To be fair, the "Now-cast" is still at 91.8%
 
2012-09-14 03:03:49 PM

DamnYankees: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

I actually think he does. He wrote an article about the voter ID laws and how it affected his analysis.


Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.


Thanks, guys.
 
2012-09-14 03:06:17 PM

DamnYankees: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

I actually think he does. He wrote an article about the voter ID laws and how it affected his analysis.


Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.


Interesting. After a cursory glance it appears he's addressing specifically the voter i.d. laws, which I would imagine is an easier scenario with which one can play with the numbers and see what pops out. I'm worried also about just outright stealing votes, like a lot of people think Republicans did in Ohio in 2004.
 
2012-09-14 03:06:26 PM
Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?
 
2012-09-14 03:08:24 PM

mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?


Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.
 
2012-09-14 03:12:33 PM
25.media.tumblr.com

/just because it makes me laugh
 
2012-09-14 03:29:10 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.


I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.
 
2012-09-14 03:49:11 PM

PC LOAD LETTER: ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.

I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.


Poison ivy on the crotch polls better than Romney.
 
2012-09-14 03:53:17 PM

PC LOAD LETTER: ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.

I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.


I wouldn't be surprised if it polled better than Romney.
 
2012-09-14 03:58:55 PM
This article essentially says that the more he deviates from previous polls in the direction away from Romney, the more convincing the evidence needs to be to support that.

Good. And good that the gap appears to be widening.
 
2012-09-14 04:14:06 PM

bronyaur1: PC LOAD LETTER: ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.

I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.

Poison ivy on the crotch polls better than Romney.


Poison ivy on the crotch-pole's better than Romney.
 
2012-09-14 04:38:44 PM
upload.wikimedia.org

ERMAGERD! DERWER DEFERTS TRURMERN!
 
2012-09-14 04:39:24 PM

unlikely: PC LOAD LETTER: ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.

I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.

I wouldn't be surprised if it polled better than Romney.


Inanimate Carbon Rod 2012!
 
2012-09-14 04:40:59 PM
I'm here so that some kindly neo-con can explain to me that Obama has zero chance of actually winning this election, because he's doomed before the juggernaut campaign of MITT THE MACHINE!

/That is gonna be some funny shiat.
 
2012-09-14 04:41:40 PM

bronyaur1: PC LOAD LETTER: ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.

I would be amused if it polled better than Romney.

Poison ivy on the crotch polls better than Romney.


I would hope so, she was played be Uma Thurman

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-09-14 04:41:45 PM

Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.


Thanks, and when the hell did the times start this "you've read x of 10 free articles" bs?
 
2012-09-14 04:42:22 PM

Sybarite: [25.media.tumblr.com image 500x366]

/just because it makes me laugh


You can love or hate the guy, but only a complete partisan farkwit wouldn't find that picture totally adorable.
 
2012-09-14 04:44:09 PM

coco ebert: I'm worried also about just outright stealing votes, like a lot of people think Republicans did in Ohio in 2004.


IIRC they'd have to do so in several States.
 
2012-09-14 04:46:29 PM

Summer Glau's Love Slave: I'm here so that some kindly neo-con can explain to me that Obama has zero chance of actually winning this election, because he's doomed before the juggernaut campaign of MITT THE MACHINE!

/That is gonna be some funny shiat.


To be fair, Mitt IS pretty impressive. He's already managed to get both legs knee-deep in his mouth, and he just keeps goin'.
 
2012-09-14 04:47:38 PM
Anyone who is undecided at this point needs a good swift kick in the junk. The candidates are pretty clearly delineated ideologically (at least based on what they have said). Seriously, what could sway someone at this point? I'm not electing anyone based on their debating skills or whether someone makes a gaffe in a speech. The table has already been set. Even if Obama stumbled out in the debates, pissed himself, and tried to make out with the moderator, I still wouldn't vote for Romney.
 
2012-09-14 04:48:27 PM

meat0918: Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.

Thanks, and when the hell did the times start this "you've read x of 10 free articles" bs?


I think that if you go to nate silver's twitter page and click on the links to his stories from there, it doesn't count towards that total.
 
2012-09-14 04:49:54 PM
check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.
 
2012-09-14 04:50:00 PM

Summer Glau's Love Slave: I'm here so that some kindly neo-con can explain to me that Obama has zero chance of actually winning this election, because he's doomed before the juggernaut campaign of MITT THE MACHINE!


By the last week of October, if Dubya Romney hasn't pulled it out of freefall, I'm expecting him and Koch and Adelson to just start handing out "voter information pamphlets" with a couple of C-notes stuck inside.
 
2012-09-14 04:50:23 PM
Just remember guys, don't let this make you feel complacent. Diebold and the corrupt GOP hacks in the local voter registration/administration officies will be doing their best to put this one in the bag for Mitt on election night. They have no shame, just like their candidate.
 
2012-09-14 04:50:23 PM

Sybarite: [25.media.tumblr.com image 500x366]

/just because it makes me laugh


That's the first time I've seen that picture. That's just awesome. I looked on the Google and also found this gem:
reddogreport.com
 
2012-09-14 04:50:36 PM

insano: Anyone who is undecided at this point needs a good swift kick in the junk. The candidates are pretty clearly delineated ideologically (at least based on what they have said). Seriously, what could sway someone at this point? I'm not electing anyone based on their debating skills or whether someone makes a gaffe in a speech. The table has already been set. Even if Obama stumbled out in the debates, pissed himself, and tried to make out with the moderator, I still wouldn't vote for Romney.


I could be convinced that voting for Obama is a mistake. But I've been convinced that voting Romney would be a mistake for 5 years.
 
2012-09-14 04:51:43 PM

coco ebert: DamnYankees: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

I actually think he does. He wrote an article about the voter ID laws and how it affected his analysis.

Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.

Interesting. After a cursory glance it appears he's addressing specifically the voter i.d. laws, which I would imagine is an easier scenario with which one can play with the numbers and see what pops out. I'm worried also about just outright stealing votes, like a lot of people think Republicans did in Ohio in 2004.


I was on the ground outside polling stations in Cleveland in 2004. I don't think the Republicans actually stole votes, but they definitely intimidated some people into not voting just because they hadn't updated their address with the BOE.
 
2012-09-14 04:51:52 PM

colon_pow: check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.


Yeah, Obama's foreign policy sucks, just ask Bin Laden.
 
2012-09-14 04:52:59 PM

colon_pow: check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.



Your foreign policy can't "collapse." Your wishful thinking isn't even based on something that's possible.
 
2012-09-14 04:53:04 PM

colon_pow: check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.


Maybe that will happen in your farked up reality.
 
2012-09-14 04:53:53 PM

insano: Anyone who is undecided at this point needs a good swift kick in the junk.


From what I've been reading it isn't so much about the undecideds this election, it's more about which campaign can GOTV more successfully. I guess there's not that many undecideds this year.

/the undecideds are always morons.

//I don't know where the ERMAGERD thing came from but it makes me chuckle every time! Good Jorb!
 
2012-09-14 04:54:30 PM

colon_pow: check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.


www.bartcop.com

Republicans: gleefully awaiting more US deaths and chaos in the Middle East
 
2012-09-14 04:56:08 PM
FREERFURL!!!!!

www.sussex.ac.uk
 
2012-09-14 04:58:10 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: mrshowrules: Theoretically, what happens if Romney just quits tomorrow?

Republicans nominate an empty chair that still manages to get 40% of the popular vote.


THE EMPTY CHAIR IS OBAMA AND HE WOULD WIN BY A UNANIMOUS VOTE!
 
2012-09-14 05:00:18 PM

Cuthbert Allgood: //I don't know where the ERMAGERD thing came from but it makes me chuckle every time! Good Jorb!


Educate yourself.
 
2012-09-14 05:01:18 PM
I thought it was funnier when he had them at 50/50.

I should go look up my comment from that thread...
 
2012-09-14 05:02:17 PM

theorellior: Cuthbert Allgood: //I don't know where the ERMAGERD thing came from but it makes me chuckle every time! Good Jorb!

Educate yourself.


too obscure
 
2012-09-14 05:02:55 PM

meat0918: Nadie_AZ:
Thanks, and when the hell did the times start this "you've read x of 10 free articles" bs?


Once it starts cutting you off, just go to the address bar and delete the long string of numbers. Or clear your cookies for another ten hassle-free articles.
 
2012-09-14 05:03:58 PM
This is Obama's Rape of Nanking.
 
2012-09-14 05:04:34 PM

coco ebert: DamnYankees: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

I actually think he does. He wrote an article about the voter ID laws and how it affected his analysis.

Nadie_AZ: coco ebert: Does Nate Silver take into account Republican plans to steal the election in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida?

Yes, he did. He had an article on it ... here.

Thanks, guys.


I actually saw him speak last night, and this came up in the Q&A. He basically said, while the spirit of the laws is distasteful, the impact will be balanced out because there are lots of poor, white Republican voters, as well.

Really likable guy.
 
2012-09-14 05:05:19 PM

colon_pow: check back again after obamas foreign policy total collapse occurs. nate might wanna update.


Nate's already adjusting for the bounce Obama will receive for the rally around the flag effect from the embassy attacks. If more problems occur in that region, Obama will just come out further ahead, especially if Mitt continues to put his foot in his mouth. How do you think Bush temporarily got such high approval rating after the failures of 9/11?
 
2012-09-14 05:05:39 PM

meat0918: Thanks, and when the hell did the times start this "you've read x of 10 free articles" bs?


When he moved over to the NY Times and they started dabbling in paywalls..
 
2012-09-14 05:07:39 PM

Zeno-25: Republicans: gleefully awaiting more US deaths and chaos in the Middle East


reddogreport.com
 
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