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(CNBC)   QE3 sets sail on a voyage that is sure to end in a sinking   (cnbc.com) divider line 87
    More: Interesting, Federal Reserve, Asian Tigers, small-cap, investment strategist, open market, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, money creation, interest rates  
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2115 clicks; posted to Business » on 13 Sep 2012 at 3:41 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-13 03:16:13 PM
Market is up big today. Looks like Wall St. likes a little bit of Socialism.
 
2012-09-13 03:34:00 PM
Sucks that news this big is relegated to the stinky business tab.
 
2012-09-13 03:37:49 PM
So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.
 
2012-09-13 03:43:01 PM
In before the goldbugs and hyperinflation witches start their herp-derp!

Good to see the FED actually, finally focusing on it's dual mandate.
 
2012-09-13 03:44:37 PM

gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.


So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

\Any increase in the price of bread will have more to do with droughts than with monetary policy.
 
2012-09-13 03:45:28 PM

max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?


Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?
 
2012-09-13 03:51:33 PM
Welcome to Groundhog Day, the macroeconomic version: Last week, Ben Bernanke popped out of Jackson Hole, saw his shadow this morning, and announced $40B/month of QE3... "until such improvement [in the outlook for the labor market] is achieved in a context of price stability," which could be a wee bit longer than six weeks.

I own some of the high-beta stuff that's benefiting from today's little party, and I'm having a rather delightful day. My little governors are finally getting the message: printing is magic.
 
2012-09-13 03:53:07 PM
DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine*?


While also happening in conjunction with a total political meltdown / vacuum. Honestly, if you worry is hyperinflation, Teabaggers getting a hold of all three branches of government would be the biggest signal it's coming.

Argentina is pretty much the only state to experience it without a major political instability/stupidity being the route cause. And there's even a case against that.
 
2012-09-13 03:54:56 PM

DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?


Zimbabwe. Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause). Argentina.
 
2012-09-13 03:55:38 PM
content6.flixster.com

"Inflation -- dead ahead!!!"
 
2012-09-13 03:57:41 PM

DamnYankees: Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?


Japan had no inflation, but then QE caused it to do pretty much nothing.
growlersoftware.com
 
2012-09-13 03:58:23 PM
I just wish I could take my 401K money out of the market in like 4-8 week's time. Stock market is already up and up since a few weeks back in anticipation for QE3.

My thought was if the Fed didn't announce QE3 the stock market would plummet. Now it's just going to coast upward for a couple months until the fiscal cliff is acted upon.
 
2012-09-13 03:59:25 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause).


This is the monetary policy version of "it's only a flesh wound".
 
2012-09-13 04:04:49 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?

Zimbabwe. Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause). Argentina.


Zimbabwe and Argentina were due to massive government bungling of the economy on a scale we haven't come close to, particularly Zimbabwe, and Germany's was due to reparations.
 
2012-09-13 04:04:55 PM
FYI, this is what hyperinflation looks like. Yes, the graph is logarithmic.

growlersoftware.com
 
das
2012-09-13 04:05:34 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?

Zimbabwe. Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause). Argentina.


Post Soviet Russia.
 
2012-09-13 04:05:47 PM

Starfly: I just wish I could take my 401K money out of the market in like 4-8 week's time. Stock market is already up and up since a few weeks back in anticipation for QE3.

My thought was if the Fed didn't announce QE3 the stock market would plummet. Now it's just going to coast upward for a couple months until the fiscal cliff is acted upon.


I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.
 
2012-09-13 04:08:46 PM

das: Post Soviet Russia.


Again, you do realize that this happened as a result of the dissolution of a world empire, and not expansionary monetary policy to get out of a recession, right>
 
2012-09-13 04:09:27 PM

DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?


Not other than Zimbabwe. And as much as some people believe that Obama=Mugabe, it just isn't the case. It takes TALENT to screw up an economy as badly as Mugabe has managed.
 
2012-09-13 04:11:42 PM
s16.postimage.org
 
2012-09-13 04:13:59 PM

HMS_Blinkin: DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?

Not other than Zimbabwe. And as much as some people believe that Obama=Mugabe, it just isn't the case. It takes TALENT to screw up an economy as badly as Mugabe has managed.


Also, 20 years of mismanagement, and the transition from an economy governed by race.
 
2012-09-13 04:18:52 PM
To be fair to Fark-Economists, hyperinflation = any inflation greater then yesterdays inflation under 0bama.

We should at least set the metrics correctly for them before they show up.
 
2012-09-13 04:21:35 PM

hugram: Starfly: I just wish I could take my 401K money out of the market in like 4-8 week's time. Stock market is already up and up since a few weeks back in anticipation for QE3.

My thought was if the Fed didn't announce QE3 the stock market would plummet. Now it's just going to coast upward for a couple months until the fiscal cliff is acted upon.

I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.


Yeah as i was writing it i was thinking, how long does it take for allocations to take? Granted i've only been investing into 401k for six years, and only heavily increased contribs in the last 6 months.
 
2012-09-13 04:22:33 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?

Zimbabwe. Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause). Argentina.


Pretty sure Zimbabwe had famine. Or rather the famine and the hyperinflation had a common cause, which was Mugabe's radical land "reforms".
 
2012-09-13 04:26:44 PM

gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.


TyrantII: In before the goldbugs and hyperinflation witches start their herp-derp!.


Oooh...so close.
 
2012-09-13 04:28:06 PM

Starfly: hugram: Starfly: I just wish I could take my 401K money out of the market in like 4-8 week's time. Stock market is already up and up since a few weeks back in anticipation for QE3.

My thought was if the Fed didn't announce QE3 the stock market would plummet. Now it's just going to coast upward for a couple months until the fiscal cliff is acted upon.

I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.

Yeah as i was writing it i was thinking, how long does it take for allocations to take? Granted i've only been investing into 401k for six years, and only heavily increased contribs in the last 6 months.


It's the next business day for me, but I can only make interfund transfers twice a month. Back in the hayday people were basically day-trading their retirement funds...
 
2012-09-13 04:33:07 PM

hugram: I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.


That's my plan for the end of the year. I plan to ride this free money gravy train for a few months and then buy big after the crash!
 
2012-09-13 04:38:37 PM
I still don't understand why we're throwing free money at the market. If we're going to throw free money at anyone, it should be consumers that will actually circulate it a little.
 
2012-09-13 04:41:43 PM

m1ke: hugram: I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.

That's my plan for the end of the year. I plan to ride this free money gravy train for a few months and then buy big after the crash!


I might do something similar too. I was thinking about doing that back in 2007 when the DOW hit 14,000 without any reason to get that high in the first place. I did not change anything on my 401K... in fact, I increase my contribution... but I would not like to go through the down turn that we all went through in 2008 and 2009.

This time around, I don't want to lose all of the nice gains I have made for the last 3 years or so... The economy is in better shape right now than it was back then, so I might not go full cash...
 
2012-09-13 04:43:04 PM

IrateShadow: I still don't understand why we're throwing free money at the market. If we're going to throw free money at anyone, it should be consumers that will actually circulate it a little.


The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.
 
2012-09-13 04:44:12 PM

Arkanaut: Debeo Summa Credo: DamnYankees: max_pooper: gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.

So is the hyperinflation wolf really coming this time?

Are there ANY examples of hyperinflation occurring simply as a result of monetary policy and not due to some external shock, like war or famine?

Zimbabwe. Germany (unless you count world war I as the cause). Argentina.

Pretty sure Zimbabwe had famine. Or rather the famine and the hyperinflation had a common cause, which was Mugabe's radical land "reforms".


Famine doesnt cause inflation. Printing money caused inflation in Zimbabwe. As it did in Germany and argentina. All those other excuses (famine, reparations, economic mismanagement) were all factors that led to the printing of money, that in turn caused hyperinflation.

The fear expressed by some is that the fed's crappy economy induced loose policy (effectively printing money), will cause higher inflation.

Hopefully the fed will be able to react quickly enough to pivot if inflation becomes a problem, by tightening (e.g. selling all these mortgages that they'll be buying under QE3.)
 
2012-09-13 04:46:05 PM

impaler: The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.


Recovery in the real-estate market is the last thing we need at this point. Houses are still overvalued in most markets.
 
2012-09-13 04:46:35 PM
Woot woot!
www.screw-paypal.com

I'm pretty confident gold will break it's nominal high of $1,920 sometime before the end of 2012 and will break it's inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 by Q1 2013.

A noteworthy investor who is now bullish on gold - Bill "Bond King" Gross of PIMCO. He made billions in bonds over his career, but he said last week that in the current market environment, gold is better than stocks or bonds. Also increasing their gold purchases in 2012 - George Soros, John Paulson, Dennis Gartman, the central banks of Russia, China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico.

I'd say the bubble is starting to inflate, but there's still a couple years before this thing gets too wild and pops. I'm going to enjoy this ride, though.
 
2012-09-13 04:51:14 PM
I'm liking silver.
 
2012-09-13 04:59:25 PM

impaler: IrateShadow: I still don't understand why we're throwing free money at the market. If we're going to throw free money at anyone, it should be consumers that will actually circulate it a little.

The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.


If this is the silly thing we're doing, better to just buy and cancel consumer debt directly.
 
2012-09-13 05:02:03 PM
*Bernank cracks whip*

Whaa-pishhhh!!

"Consume damn you!! Consume!!"

Whaa-pishhhh!!
 
2012-09-13 05:03:06 PM

YixilTesiphon: impaler: IrateShadow: I still don't understand why we're throwing free money at the market. If we're going to throw free money at anyone, it should be consumers that will actually circulate it a little.

The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.

If this is the silly thing we're doing, better to just buy and cancel consumer debt directly.


Once you cancel it you no longer have the asset. It'd result in an immediate loss of $40b to the fed.

The fed is buying mortgage debt that it will hold and collect principal and interest on.
 
2012-09-13 05:03:22 PM

IrateShadow: impaler: The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.

Recovery in the real-estate market is the last thing we need at this point. Houses are still overvalued in most markets.


By what metric?
 
2012-09-13 05:05:12 PM
As long as the government has self-control over their monetary policy, there will not be hyper inflation (unless the government explicitly wants hyper inflation). They can throttle back the money supply just as easily as they can increase it
 
2012-09-13 05:07:21 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Once you cancel it you no longer have the asset. It'd result in an immediate loss of $40b to the fed.


They're printing the money anyways, so why does it matter?
 
2012-09-13 05:17:09 PM

YixilTesiphon: Debeo Summa Credo: Once you cancel it you no longer have the asset. It'd result in an immediate loss of $40b to the fed.

They're printing the money anyways, so why does it matter?


Well, they're printing it now and expect to withdraw it at a later time. Net impact on long term money supply is zero. If they give it away and never draw it back, the impact is an increase of $40b per month.

So basically, following on lost thought 00's correct post above. Just printing money and giving it away is what can cause hyperinflation. Being cautious by buying assets with cash injected into the economy, which you can sell to redeem cash when you want, is prudent.
 
2012-09-13 05:19:51 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Once you cancel it you no longer have the asset. It'd result in an immediate loss of $40b to the fed.

The fed is buying mortgage debt that it will hold and collect principal and interest on.


Indeed. Doing that would literally be the closest thing to actually "printing money" as most people envision "printing money" to be.

If the Feds ever give people money without acquiring an asset in return, I would highly recommend buying gold.
 
2012-09-13 05:20:11 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: YixilTesiphon: Debeo Summa Credo: Once you cancel it you no longer have the asset. It'd result in an immediate loss of $40b to the fed.

They're printing the money anyways, so why does it matter?

Well, they're printing it now and expect to withdraw it at a later time. Net impact on long term money supply is zero. If they give it away and never draw it back, the impact is an increase of $40b per month.

So basically, following on lost thought 00's correct post above. Just printing money and giving it away is what can cause hyperinflation. Being cautious by buying assets with cash injected into the economy, which you can sell to redeem cash when you want, is prudent.


Makes sense. Thanks.
 
2012-09-13 05:20:23 PM
Idiotically thought this was about the Queen Elizabeth III.

Leaving thread feeling like an idiot.
 
2012-09-13 05:21:46 PM

Spare Me: I'm liking silver.


Good choice. Silver is up nearly 25% in the last 30 days alone. Many of the prognosticators I've read say that silver is likely to outperform gold because the gold/silver price ratio is way out of whack and will eventually correct itself.
 
2012-09-13 05:32:53 PM

DamnYankees: das: Post Soviet Russia.

Again, you do realize that this happened as a result of the dissolution of a world empire, and not expansionary monetary policy to get out of a recession, right>


No they don't. Or if they do, they won't admit it because it's inconvenient and doesn't match how they think the world should be.
 
2012-09-13 05:51:52 PM
IrateShadow: I still don't understand why we're throwing free money at the market. If we're going to throw free money at anyone, it should be consumers that will actually circulate it a little.

The idea is to tick up inflation slightly, while setting a policy that low interest rates will be raised sooner then later.

If a large companies vault of cash might see it's value go down from holding on to it, it makes sense to instead spend it on capital improvements. That drives demand in real estate, industrial machinery, other capital goods. People need to supply that work and those things, so those people then have money and consumer demand is raised form their fortunes. That demand filters back to these corps seeing upticks in demand, and then new hiring.

Hard money and very low inflation is actually not a good thing for the economy, or for long term investment. It only benefits those who want to hoard large amounts of savings.
 
2012-09-13 05:56:25 PM

Lost Thought 00: As long as the government has self-control over their monetary policy, there will not be hyper inflation (unless the government explicitly wants hyper inflation). They can throttle back the money supply just as easily as they can increase it


Thankfully, the Fed isn't (directly) controlled by the government. "Self control" in our current political environment? Letmelaughharder. jpg
 
2012-09-13 06:07:44 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-09-13 06:47:35 PM

IrateShadow: impaler: The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.

Recovery in the real-estate market is the last thing we need at this point. Houses are still overvalued in most markets.


The biggest problem with the real estate market is that banks are almost unwilling to underwrite loans, so no one can afford one to purchase one anyway. Give the banks a boot in the ass, and the housing market gears will loosen up a little.
 
2012-09-13 07:03:38 PM

gopher321: So...how much is a loaf of bread going to cost next year? People will be biatching then.


WOLF WOLF WOLF

Statistically, one of these times the inflation doomsday cult will be correct. I'm just not willing to bet on any particular time.

This is why Ron Paul has predicted 37 of the last 2 recessions.
 
2012-09-13 07:42:46 PM

impaler: FYI, this is what hyperinflation looks like. Yes, the graph is logarithmic.

[growlersoftware.com image 713x502]


And there's no reason to think that what the Fed is doing isn't having the same affect. But the 40 billion/month that the Fed is pumping is minor compared to the total money supply. If they were pushing 10 times that amount then you would be able to see the inflation. As it is, they hope to only offset the deflation that has occured in the housing sector.
 
2012-09-13 07:47:27 PM
So many FarkProgsTM like GAT_00 and Tyrantll in this thread have no idea how astronomically bad for the economy this is and how the disasterous consequences will be. This thread will be sad to look back on once the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. It'll hurt to say "I told you so" when that happens, and the Fed has sealed its fate with its announcement today.
 
2012-09-13 08:01:36 PM
The better thing is that they promised to give the recovery a bit of time to take hold before raising rates.

Anything that improves the economy is going to generate a burst of inflation, especially in the short term (e.g. increase in demand for gasoline). My fear for some years is that the Fed has been so paranoid about inflation getting above 2% that as soon as the economy got going again, they'd go "OMG! Inflation!" and raise rates to slam on the brakes.
 
2012-09-13 08:01:51 PM

Atomic Spunk: Woot woot!
[www.screw-paypal.com image 300x300]

I'm pretty confident gold will break it's nominal high of $1,920 sometime before the end of 2012 and will break it's inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 by Q1 2013.

A noteworthy investor who is now bullish on gold - Bill "Bond King" Gross of PIMCO. He made billions in bonds over his career, but he said last week that in the current market environment, gold is better than stocks or bonds. Also increasing their gold purchases in 2012 - George Soros, John Paulson, Dennis Gartman, the central banks of Russia, China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico.

I'd say the bubble is starting to inflate, but there's still a couple years before this thing gets too wild and pops. I'm going to enjoy this ride, though.


This is amazingly myopic.
If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it. And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion, who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? Oh, you're going to trade it for beans and bullets. Right. Until somebody takes it from you on the street. Unless you take physical delivery of your gold, IT EFFECTIVELY DOES NOT EXIST. And if the fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary displacement device, who's going to redeem that paper? How many mocha grande lattes can you get for a gram of gold? Google "more gold sold than exists" and watch the fun.

Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.
 
2012-09-13 08:08:42 PM

stratagos: Lost Thought 00: As long as the government has self-control over their monetary policy, there will not be hyper inflation (unless the government explicitly wants hyper inflation). They can throttle back the money supply just as easily as they can increase it

Thankfully, the Fed isn't (directly) controlled by the government. "Self control" in our current political environment? Letmelaughharder. jpg


It's kind of funny - the traditional argument for central bank independence is the assumption that politicians would just fire up the presses every election season (which is all the time) and over-inflate the economy.

But if today's Congress took over the money supply, they'd put us on a gold standard (and at least half the country would enthusiastically support that). Welcome to bizarro land.
 
2012-09-13 08:12:14 PM

Hydra: once the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency


To what? Canned goods?

The remnibi is pegged to the dollar, it'd be pointless to switch to that. There aren't enough Swiss francs to go around (and they print more faster than Bernanke does anyway). The Euro has more problems than the dollar ever will...
 
2012-09-13 08:12:49 PM

TyrantII: To be fair to Fark-Economists, hyperinflation = any inflation greater then yesterdays inflation under 0bama.


FTFY
 
2012-09-13 08:18:41 PM

HotIgneous Intruder: If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it.


Possibly: but only assuming that the holder of said gold isn't backed by that other precious metal -- lead.

And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion,

What, the delusion that any nation recklessly borrowing and spending far in excess of its ability to repay its debts will one day have to reckon with the very real and disastrous effects of its irresponsible profligacy? Do you really call that a delusion? If so, why?

who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? [...] Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.

Perhaps we can agree after all on the only truly salient point, which is that once the impending economic collapse takes place it will be highly advantageous to be found in possession of high-calibre weapons and ammunition; and that only once this collapse has taken place, and the inevitable civil conflict run its course, can the aforementioned "doomer" feel free to cash in on his stocks of guns, precious metals or whatever else he may have at hand.
 
2012-09-13 08:21:27 PM

EvilRacistNaziFascist: HotIgneous Intruder: If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it.

Possibly: but only assuming that the holder of said gold isn't backed by that other precious metal -- lead.

And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion,

What, the delusion that any nation recklessly borrowing and spending far in excess of its ability to repay its debts will one day have to reckon with the very real and disastrous effects of its irresponsible profligacy? Do you really call that a delusion? If so, why?

who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? [...] Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.

Perhaps we can agree after all on the only truly salient point, which is that once the impending economic collapse takes place it will be highly advantageous to be found in possession of high-calibre weapons and ammunition; and that only once this collapse has taken place, and the inevitable civil conflict run its course, can the aforementioned "doomer" feel free to cash in on his stocks of guns, precious metals or whatever else he may have at hand.


DOOM, DOOM, DOOM, DOOM. Look at me! I have gold! I'm SMART! You're DUMB!
Derpity derp.

The reason this whole thing hasn't crashed already and won't is because the givernments and the banks won't let it. Notice the constant state of not-crashed? That's on purpose.
Derpity.
 
2012-09-13 08:23:56 PM

EvilRacistNaziFascist: Possibly: but only assuming that the holder of said gold isn't backed by that other precious metal -- lead.


Bwah-hahahahahaha.
Yes, you'll kill the government when they outlaw the color and make you turn it in.
Let me know how that turns out for you, you ITG.
 
2012-09-13 08:24:05 PM
LOLOLOLOL...... QE3.
 
2012-09-13 08:32:25 PM

HotIgneous Intruder: Atomic Spunk: Woot woot!
[www.screw-paypal.com image 300x300]

I'm pretty confident gold will break it's nominal high of $1,920 sometime before the end of 2012 and will break it's inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 by Q1 2013.

A noteworthy investor who is now bullish on gold - Bill "Bond King" Gross of PIMCO. He made billions in bonds over his career, but he said last week that in the current market environment, gold is better than stocks or bonds. Also increasing their gold purchases in 2012 - George Soros, John Paulson, Dennis Gartman, the central banks of Russia, China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico.

I'd say the bubble is starting to inflate, but there's still a couple years before this thing gets too wild and pops. I'm going to enjoy this ride, though.

This is amazingly myopic.
If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it. And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion, who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? Oh, you're going to trade it for beans and bullets. Right. Until somebody takes it from you on the street. Unless you take physical delivery of your gold, IT EFFECTIVELY DOES NOT EXIST. And if the fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary displacement device, who's going to redeem that paper? How many mocha grande lattes can you get for a gram of gold? Google "more gold sold than exists" and watch the fun.

Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.


You must have me confused with someone else. I'm not a doomer. Society will chug along just fine with maybe a hiccup here and there, to make things interesting. I'm not planning on holding my gold forever. Someday there will be a bubble, and shortly thereafter, the bubble will burst, but I'll hopefully be mostly divested by then. I own bullion (yes, I have it in my possession) but I also own gold stocks which are experiencing a nice turnaround. I'm an investor trying to make money and have invested in precious metals for about 25 years..

pmdgrwr and I have been the only people I have seen consistently in the Business threads related to gold that have been championing the metal for the last year and a half. Nearly everyone else posting was claiming that gold was a bubble in late 2011 and it had popped. It's funny that many of those who said that still continue to post in gold threads, but won't admit to the fact that they were completely wrong about gold. No doubt, they'll probably be the ones to capitulate and start buying just when gold is reaching it's peak. Suckers.

I enjoyed your rant, even though it was entirely misdirected.
 
2012-09-13 09:55:10 PM

Atomic Spunk: HotIgneous Intruder: Atomic Spunk: Woot woot!
[www.screw-paypal.com image 300x300]

I'm pretty confident gold will break it's nominal high of $1,920 sometime before the end of 2012 and will break it's inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 by Q1 2013.

A noteworthy investor who is now bullish on gold - Bill "Bond King" Gross of PIMCO. He made billions in bonds over his career, but he said last week that in the current market environment, gold is better than stocks or bonds. Also increasing their gold purchases in 2012 - George Soros, John Paulson, Dennis Gartman, the central banks of Russia, China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico.

I'd say the bubble is starting to inflate, but there's still a couple years before this thing gets too wild and pops. I'm going to enjoy this ride, though.

This is amazingly myopic.
If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it. And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion, who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? Oh, you're going to trade it for beans and bullets. Right. Until somebody takes it from you on the street. Unless you take physical delivery of your gold, IT EFFECTIVELY DOES NOT EXIST. And if the fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary displacement device, who's going to redeem that paper? How many mocha grande lattes can you get for a gram of gold? Google "more gold sold than exists" and watch the fun.

Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.

You must have me confused with someone else. I'm not a doomer. Society will chug along just fine with maybe a hiccup here and there, to make things interesting. I'm not planning on holding my gold forever. Someday there will be a bubble, and shortly thereafter, the bubble will burst, but I'll hopefully be mostly divested by then. I own bullion (yes, I have it in my possession) but I also own gold stocks which are experiencing a nice turnaround. I'm an investor trying to make money and have invested in precious metals for about 25 years..

pmdgrwr and I have been the only people I have seen consistently in the Business threads related to gold that have been championing the metal for the last year and a half. Nearly everyone else posting was claiming that gold was a bubble in late 2011 and it had popped. It's funny that many of those who said that still continue to post in gold threads, but won't admit to the fact that they were completely wrong about gold. No doubt, they'll probably be the ones to capitulate and start buying just when gold is reaching it's peak. Suckers.

I enjoyed your rant, even though it was entirely misdirected.


So when will you call the top and divest?
 
2012-09-13 10:22:37 PM
people don't have confidence in our economic system because of actions just like this. We know our economy is being propped up. We know it can't last. We are all just waiting for the other show to drop before we get along with our fiscal lives.

The best thing to do at this point would be to let the institutions fail that are going to fail, let the Euro die, everybody writes their losses down and we start from scratch.

All of these economic contrivances are slowing down the recovery.
 
2012-09-13 10:40:35 PM

PDid: So when will you call the top and divest?


I won't call a top and divest, but rather I will start selling piecemeal when it passes $1,895 which is the highest nominal close to date. I'll also sell a bit when it passes $2,300 or so, which is the inflation adjusted high. And while that's happening, I will be watching for signs of "frothiness". Examples: Newbies to precious metals investing will speak about the metal as if they were experts (I remember this happening for NASDAQ stocks during the high-tech bubble). We Buy Gold stores will start closing down in bunches because people are so enamored with gold, they don't want to sell (or they've sold already and have nothing left to sell). P/E ratios for major gold stocks will exceed the average S&P P/E by 50% or more. The general statements made about the metal by the media as well as the "man on the street" will be overwhelmingly positive, and instead of most people thinking that gold investing is risky (as most people do now), people will think gold investing is safe and NOT owning gold is risky.

I also am in contact with a friend who is in the gold exploration industry and I'll rely on his advice from time to time. He's been at this for a very long time, and although he's an industry insider, he's not in love with gold as an investment. I trust his objectivity.
 
2012-09-13 11:08:52 PM

thrgd456: people don't have confidence in our economic system because of actions just like this. We know our economy is being propped up. We know it can't last. We are all just waiting for the other show to drop before we get along with our fiscal lives.

The best thing to do at this point would be to let the institutions fail that are going to fail, let the Euro die, everybody writes their losses down and we start from scratch.


Exactly. Why prop up a house and fix the termite infested wood, when you can just burn the whole thing down.

Idiot.
 
2012-09-14 12:08:18 AM

impaler: thrgd456: people don't have confidence in our economic system because of actions just like this. We know our economy is being propped up. We know it can't last. We are all just waiting for the other show to drop before we get along with our fiscal lives.

The best thing to do at this point would be to let the institutions fail that are going to fail, let the Euro die, everybody writes their losses down and we start from scratch.

Exactly. Why prop up a house and fix the termite infested wood, when you can just burn the whole thing down.

Idiot.


Your analogy is bogus--nothing is being "fixed". It's morally wrong to prop up badly managed companies with inflation future generations will have to pay.
 
2012-09-14 12:09:32 AM

Gaseous Anomaly: But if today's Congress took over the money supply, they'd put us on a gold standard (and at least half the country would enthusiastically support that). Welcome to bizarro land.


The funny thing is that in the past, gold standard economies simply ignore the gold standard and fire up the printing presses anyhow.

What people don't seem to understand is that it's not like the gold has a gun and it's pointing it at politicians' heads. It just sorta sits there.
 
2012-09-14 12:12:10 AM

Watching_Epoxy_Cure: impaler: thrgd456: people don't have confidence in our economic system because of actions just like this. We know our economy is being propped up. We know it can't last. We are all just waiting for the other show to drop before we get along with our fiscal lives.

The best thing to do at this point would be to let the institutions fail that are going to fail, let the Euro die, everybody writes their losses down and we start from scratch.

Exactly. Why prop up a house and fix the termite infested wood, when you can just burn the whole thing down.

Idiot.

Your analogy is bogus--nothing is being "fixed". It's morally wrong to prop up badly managed companies with inflation future generations will have to pay.


There is little danger of inflation from QE. In fact, there is a greater chance of deflation occurring. Also the US is also buying long term securities and driving down long range rates too (Operation It's a Twist!).

Just FYI, Japan had multiple rounds of QE for 10 years, and they went to into a deflationary cycle they're still sorta stuck in.
 
2012-09-14 12:44:10 AM
Hydra: So many FarkProgsTM like GAT_00 and Tyrantll in this thread have no idea how astronomically bad for the economy this is and how the disasterous consequences will be. This thread will be sad to look back on once the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. It'll hurt to say "I told you so" when that happens, and the Fed has sealed its fate with its announcement today.

LOL, boy do I have a bridge to sell you! It comes underground, with ammo and canned food too!
 
2012-09-14 12:49:23 AM

Shazam999: Gaseous Anomaly: But if today's Congress took over the money supply, they'd put us on a gold standard (and at least half the country would enthusiastically support that). Welcome to bizarro land.

The funny thing is that in the past, gold standard economies simply ignore the gold standard and fire up the printing presses anyhow.

What people don't seem to understand is that it's not like the gold has a gun and it's pointing it at politicians' heads. It just sorta sits there.


^^^ that was funny ^^^
 
2012-09-14 01:00:25 AM
I see the problem as a lack of confidence in the economy. Small business people see the economy as being manipulated for the benefit of the ultra wealthy at the detriment of everyone else. The playing field isn't level. It never really was level, but now the curtain has been pulled back and we can all see a little bit of how unfair the financial system really is.

What I find hard to stomach is that the general public has bought into a lie that was fed to the media by the corporate shills (AKA Bush and the 2008 Congress). The lie was that if the fed allowed investment firms to go under then the world would be plunged into 100 years of darkness.

The world will not end if Bank of America goes belly up. Bush's world would have ended. Everyone in Congress who was heavily invested in those firms would have had their worlds turned upside down. But the average Joe? You and me? Our world would have changed very little. Our prices would have gone up. We might have had supply shortages. We would be forced to pay the real price of food and goods. Gas would have gone up (best thing that could happen).

But life as we know it would not end.
 
2012-09-14 02:14:34 AM

Starfly: I just wish I could take my 401K money out of the market in like 4-8 week's time. Stock market is already up and up since a few weeks back in anticipation for QE3.


I'm going to go out on the limb and say I'm sure you have the option of moving everything into a money market or bond fund.
 
2012-09-14 02:20:42 AM

Shazam999: Just FYI, Japan had multiple rounds of QE for 10 years, and they went to into a deflationary cycle they're still sorta stuck in.



Exactly. But all the Libertarian trolls with no economic education are in here speaking nonsense with no facts to back them up. The worst one of course thew out Zimbabwe like he has a clue. I hear his PR firm pays by the key phrase though
 
2012-09-14 02:34:54 AM

EvilRacistNaziFascist: any nation recklessly borrowing and spending far in excess of its ability to repay its debts


Which nation is that? It certainly isn't the United States of America, which isn't even close to being unable to service its debt. We're still borrowing less as a percentage of GDP than in the years after WWII, and the cost of our debt is substantially lower than it was then. IN fact, right now real bond yields are negative - the federal government is obligated to repay about 98 cents (in real dollars) for every dollar it borrows. The government ought to be borrowing as much money as it can without distorting the market, and invest that borrowed money in critical infrastructure.

hugram: m1ke: hugram: I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.

That's my plan for the end of the year. I plan to ride this free money gravy train for a few months and then buy big after the crash!

I might do something similar too. I was thinking about doing that back in 2007 when the DOW hit 14,000 without any reason to get that high in the first place. I did not change anything on my 401K... in fact, I increase my contribution... but I would not like to go through the down turn that we all went through in 2008 and 2009.

This time around, I don't want to lose all of the nice gains I have made for the last 3 years or so... The economy is in better shape right now than it was back then, so I might not go full cash...


1. Buy
2. Hold
3. Reinvest dividends
4. Wait 20 years or more
5. Retire rich, and laugh at all the pikers who tried to time the market.
 
2012-09-14 03:27:19 AM

BMulligan: EvilRacistNaziFascist: any nation recklessly borrowing and spending far in excess of its ability to repay its debts

Which nation is that? It certainly isn't the United States of America, which isn't even close to being unable to service its debt. We're still borrowing less as a percentage of GDP than in the years after WWII, and the cost of our debt is substantially lower than it was then. IN fact, right now real bond yields are negative - the federal government is obligated to repay about 98 cents (in real dollars) for every dollar it borrows. The government ought to be borrowing as much money as it can without distorting the market, and invest that borrowed money in critical infrastructure.

hugram: m1ke: hugram: I believe you can... well, at least I can with my 401K. You can move some or all of it to a safe cash type of investments that your 401K administrator might offer. Look into it.

That's my plan for the end of the year. I plan to ride this free money gravy train for a few months and then buy big after the crash!

I might do something similar too. I was thinking about doing that back in 2007 when the DOW hit 14,000 without any reason to get that high in the first place. I did not change anything on my 401K... in fact, I increase my contribution... but I would not like to go through the down turn that we all went through in 2008 and 2009.

This time around, I don't want to lose all of the nice gains I have made for the last 3 years or so... The economy is in better shape right now than it was back then, so I might not go full cash...

1. Buy
2. Hold
3. Reinvest dividends
4. Wait 20 years or more
5. Retire rich, and laugh at all the pikers who tried to time the market.


LOL! Unless you can afford sub-second trading, your money is just there to feed the sharks my little deluded chum.
 
2012-09-14 03:32:06 AM

nmemkha: LOL! Unless you can afford sub-second trading, your money is just there to feed the sharks my little deluded chum.


You're not very good at arithmetic, are you?
 
2012-09-14 05:45:05 AM
"By doing QE3, he has admitted that QE1 and QE2 have not been beneficial. Otherwise, there would be no need for QE3," said some stupid motherfarker who doesn't know the difference between instantaneous change and rate of change.
 
2012-09-14 06:11:17 AM

BMulligan: nmemkha: LOL! Unless you can afford sub-second trading, your money is just there to feed the sharks my little deluded chum.

You're not very good at arithmetic, are you?


Go read up on HFT and come back with a clue.
 
2012-09-14 07:14:42 AM

Atomic Spunk: HotIgneous Intruder: Atomic Spunk: Woot woot!
[www.screw-paypal.com image 300x300]

I'm pretty confident gold will break it's nominal high of $1,920 sometime before the end of 2012 and will break it's inflation-adjusted high of $2,300 by Q1 2013.

A noteworthy investor who is now bullish on gold - Bill "Bond King" Gross of PIMCO. He made billions in bonds over his career, but he said last week that in the current market environment, gold is better than stocks or bonds. Also increasing their gold purchases in 2012 - George Soros, John Paulson, Dennis Gartman, the central banks of Russia, China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico.

I'd say the bubble is starting to inflate, but there's still a couple years before this thing gets too wild and pops. I'm going to enjoy this ride, though.

This is amazingly myopic.
If it ever comes to it, Uncle Sugar is going to confiscate your precious gold and give you some paper for it. And if you have gold and the mess crashes, which it won't but I don't wanna bust up this delusion, who will you call, who will the millions of idiots call, to cash the stuff in? Are you going to show up at the 7/11 with the papers that say you "own" gold and redeem them? Oh, you're going to trade it for beans and bullets. Right. Until somebody takes it from you on the street. Unless you take physical delivery of your gold, IT EFFECTIVELY DOES NOT EXIST. And if the fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary displacement device, who's going to redeem that paper? How many mocha grande lattes can you get for a gram of gold? Google "more gold sold than exists" and watch the fun.

Enjoy the bumpy plateau, doomer.

You must have me confused with someone else. I'm not a doomer. Society will chug along just fine with maybe a hiccup here and there, to make things interesting. I'm not planning on holding my gold forever. Someday there will be a bubble, and shortly thereafter, the bubble will burst, but I'll hopefully be mostly divested by then. I own bullion (yes, I have it in my possession) but I also own gold stocks which are experiencing a nice turnaround. I'm an investor trying to make money and have invested in precious metals for about 25 years..

pmdgrwr and I have been the only people I have seen consistently in the Business threads related to gold that have been championing the metal for the last year and a half. Nearly everyone else posting was claiming that gold was a bubble in late 2011 and it had popped. It's funny that many of those who said that still continue to post in gold threads, but won't admit to the fact that they were completely wrong about gold. No doubt, they'll probably be the ones to capitulate and start buying just when gold is reaching it's peak. Suckers.

I enjoyed your rant, even though it was entirely misdirected.


I've been in gold threads and called it a bubble. In fact I'll admit that last year I incorrectly predicted that it's value would plummet to below $1,000 per ounce by the end of this year.

I was kicking myself earlier this year when the price dropped and i hadnt bought put options. Thank goodness i didnt.

Still, I think it is overvalued and is pricing in an extraordinary amount of inflation that I think is unlikely to occur. Its up seven fold since 2000 or so. Real estate, another asset that holds is value in the face of inflation, is flat since 2000. Seems to me prudent inflation hawks would be more inclined to buy real estate at this point.
 
2012-09-14 08:56:31 AM
Does this mean mortgage rates will come down even more?
 
2012-09-14 11:14:35 AM

Hydra: So many FarkProgsTM like GAT_00 and Tyrantll in this thread have no idea how astronomically bad for the economy this is and how the disasterous consequences will be. This thread will be sad to look back on once the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. It'll hurt to say "I told you so" when that happens, and the Fed has sealed its fate with its announcement today.


and what will be the reserve currency to supplant the dollar?

if QE is evil, then it won't be the swiss franc. The Swiss' printing has reached 70% of GDP so far this year.
 
2012-09-14 01:28:13 PM
Can't decide if Bernank is Buzz Lightyear, "To QEnfinity and beyond!!" ,that dog Bolt that never felt hunger or bled or Yosemite Sam but with no more bullets.
 
2012-09-14 06:24:56 PM

dumbobruni: Hydra: So many FarkProgsTM like GAT_00 and Tyrantll in this thread have no idea how astronomically bad for the economy this is and how the disasterous consequences will be. This thread will be sad to look back on once the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. It'll hurt to say "I told you so" when that happens, and the Fed has sealed its fate with its announcement today.

and what will be the reserve currency to supplant the dollar?

if QE is evil, then it won't be the swiss franc. The Swiss' printing has reached 70% of GDP so far this year.



The Yuan

*snicker*
 
2012-09-14 07:13:00 PM

L82DPRT: Can't decide if Bernank is Buzz Lightyear, "To QEnfinity and beyond!!" ,that dog Bolt that never felt hunger or bled or Yosemite Sam but with no more bullets.


Neither. Bernanke is Bugs Bunny, and he's got his trollface on.

FOMC: *click, no QE3 for the last few meetings* *click, nothing at Jackson Hole either* Well, whaddya know? No more buwwets.
Bernanke: No more bullets? Hey, laughing boy! No more bullets!
Shorts: No more bullets?! Here, lemme see that thing...
*BLAM*
FOMC: Well, whaddya know! One buwwet weft!
Bernanke: One buwwet weft? Hey, laughing boy! There was...
Shorts: ...I know, I know!
 
2012-09-15 05:19:15 PM
www.otrcat.com

"Go to the end of the freeway and buy all the land you can see."
 
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