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(NPR)   The Sandman helps NFL West Coast teams beat the spread 70 percent of the time   (npr.org) divider line 56
    More: Interesting, team to beat, West Coast, NFL, West Coast teams, pickup games, Eastern Time Zone, Detroit Lions, silhouette edge  
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1349 clicks; posted to Sports » on 12 Sep 2012 at 11:05 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-09-12 09:07:58 AM  
Over a quarter-century span, the West Coast teams beat the East an amazing 70 percent of the time against the spread.

Spreads are determined by betting patterns, right? So most of the money comes from people who don't know about away coast advantage. Smart people may have been taking advantage of the 2:1 odds. Now they'll have to bust some kneecaps for publicizing the effect.
 
2012-09-12 10:38:01 AM  

ZAZ: Over a quarter-century span, the West Coast teams beat the East an amazing 70 percent of the time against the spread.

Spreads are determined by betting patterns, right? So most of the money comes from people who don't know about away coast advantage. Smart people may have been taking advantage of the 2:1 odds. Now they'll have to bust some kneecaps for publicizing the effect.


Except the spread is set by oddsmakers responding to demand from the betting public.

Where's probably 3/4 of the betting public live? Not the West Coast. Who do they favor? Their own teams. So all this really is showing is the betting public on the East Coast, South and Midwest favors its own teams more than looking at it rationally. So the betting line adjusts to try to move the betting over to the Western teams.

So the real crime here is someone figured this out and is publicizing it. Sounds to me like great insider knowledge all these years.

A twist on East Coast Bias -- more people living in a region overvalues their own home teams, to the betterment of those on the other coast. Kind of awesome, unless you are the ones that kept moving the line on the Giants or Patriots up to 12, 15 points every week just because you and everyone else around you couldn't imagine them not beating the Seahawks or Niners by 30.
 
2012-09-12 10:41:12 AM  
I just quit my job!
 
2012-09-12 10:49:11 AM  
Of course, it also hurts them when they go play in the East (which they have to do more than anyone goes west, thanks to the geographical alignment). You might also want to consider that they're not putting any West Coast teams in prime time against an East Coast opponent unless the West Coast team is good.
 
2012-09-12 11:09:43 AM  

Generation_D: So the real crime here is someone figured this out and is publicizing it. Sounds to me like great insider knowledge all these years.


TFA doesn't indicate when this Stanford study was done, but I think it's safe to say that the major odds-makers knew about it before David Randall or NPR publicized it.
 
2012-09-12 11:12:00 AM  
I've heard the opposite happens during day games when a west coast team goes east. For example, if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do well. I've never seen an actual study to determine if this is true, however. I also would like to see the actual study where this 70% figure comes from before I truly buy into this.
 
2012-09-12 11:15:16 AM  

Cincinnati Kid: I've heard the opposite happens during day games when a west coast team goes east. For example, if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do well. I've never seen an actual study to determine if this is true, however. I also would like to see the actual study where this 70% figure comes from before I truly buy into this.


I think that first you'd need an actual study to determine how California moved about 2,000 miles farther west than it was.
 
2012-09-12 11:15:19 AM  
That's one of the reasons I hate when college athletic directors allow their kids to play late games just for TV. One, the kids aren't getting paid for that, second the kids shouldn't be playing until 1:30 am in their original time zones.
 
2012-09-12 11:16:57 AM  

Cincinnati Kid: I've heard the opposite happens during day games when a west coast team goes east. For example, if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do well. I've never seen an actual study to determine if this is true, however. I also would like to see the actual study where this 70% figure comes from before I truly buy into this.


You need to check your time zone math. 1PM Eastern is only 10AM Pacific. Early, but not horrible.
 
2012-09-12 11:18:19 AM  

Cincinnati Kid: if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do


sunday, the Cards are at Foxboro for 1PM EST game, which will 10AM for the Cards' body clock. and Oakland wil lbe in Miami (a bad team vs an awful team, so who knows) also at 1PM EST. And if I'm not mistaken, that will be 9AM for the Raiders body clocks.

the last few years, it seems that teams from the South really sruggled vs West Coast teams. Tampa, NO, Jax, and Carolina (and to a lesser extent, ATL) didn't do so well against the NFC West. I attribute that more to talent and hype moreso than a time/geo zone advantage though.
 
2012-09-12 11:19:20 AM  

Generation_D: So the real crime here is someone figured this out and is publicizing it. Sounds to me like great insider knowledge all these years.


I wouldn't worry. I suspect most people who bet on sports will continue to follow their intuition, and the people who actually know what they're doing were already aware of this statistic.
 
2012-09-12 11:19:48 AM  
So let me get this right.

You've got a sure thing--something you could retire on. So you write a blog entry about it.

Beautiful.
 
2012-09-12 11:22:04 AM  

EponymousCowHerd: You need to check your time zone math. 1PM Eastern is only 10AM Pacific. Early, but not horrible.


before daylight savings in about a month or so, the difference is 4 hours. when i was stationed in california, it was odd as shiat to wake up at say, 10AM Sunday and the game is already in the second quarter.

Arizona doesn't change time so that means for the first month or so, the early games start at 10AM (1 EST). Then when everybody else does DST but we don't, 1pm EST becomes 11AM for us. and then of course our home games shift from 1PM local to 2pm local.
 
2012-09-12 11:23:07 AM  

rickythepenguin: Cincinnati Kid: if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do

sunday, the Cards are at Foxboro for 1PM EST game, which will 10AM for the Cards' body clock. and Oakland wil lbe in Miami (a bad team vs an awful team, so who knows) also at 1PM EST. And if I'm not mistaken, that will be 9AM for the Raiders body clocks.


images1.wikia.nocookie.net
"I personally believe that U.S. Americans are unable to do so because, uh, some, uh. . . people out there in our nation don't have maps and, uh, I believe that our, uh, education like such as in Cincinnati and, uh, the Fark, everywhere like such as, and, I believe that they should, our education over HERE in the U.S. should help the U.S., uh, or, uh, should help the time zone calculations, so we will be able to build up our future, for our children."
 
2012-09-12 11:24:05 AM  
Oh please, just admit the West Coast is underrated and stop lying through statistics
 
2012-09-12 11:24:27 AM  

rickythepenguin: before daylight savings in about a month or so, the difference is 4 hours. when i was stationed in california, it was odd as shiat to wake up at say, 10AM Sunday and the game is already in the second quarter.


You drank too much when you were stationed in California.

/S'ok, so did I.
//Arizona does fark it all up, though.
 
2012-09-12 11:30:51 AM  
0.tqn.com

1:00 pm Eastern
12:00 pm Central
11:00 am Mountain
10:00 am Pacific

This is not rocket surgery, folks.
 
2012-09-12 11:34:08 AM  

netweavr: Oh please, just admit the West Coast is underrated and stop lying through statistics



that's my gut feeling about it all. "you guys play finesse ball!" fast forward to 49ers punching NO in the mouth. "Uhh.....you guys got lucky!" or seattle going beast mode on NO. "that playoff game was a trap game!" or 9-7 arizona shutting down ATL in the irst round in the super bowl run: "uhh.....that was Matt Ryan's first playoff game, you just got lucky!"

no, we can actually play some ball out here.
 
2012-09-12 11:38:10 AM  

Sin_City_Superhero: This is not rocket surgery, folks.



except arizona and i think a little part of Illinoir or Indiana doesn't do DST.

but within arizona, a portion of the navajo reservation does.

footnote: speaking of Navajo, the Navajo are huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge Steelers fans. it's the damnedest thing. and for a few yeas, the 49ers (of all teams) broadcast games in the Navajo language on KTNN, the CNN/NPR/Fox News (pick your network) of the Navajo Nation.

and just for fun sometimes I'll find the Spanish language feed of Cards games. "yonnnnn Skel-thone.....marca al tiros de arca LAAAAAA-RRRREEEEEE FEEEEEEEETZ-YYYYYYERALD!!!!"
 
2012-09-12 11:42:33 AM  

rickythepenguin: marca al tiros de arca



yes i know that is basically, "covers a man on a shot on goal". it's all i can think of. i don't know how they say "thrwos a touchdown pass".
 
2012-09-12 11:46:17 AM  
 
2012-09-12 11:46:36 AM  

rickythepenguin: and just for fun sometimes I'll find the Spanish language feed of Cards games. "yonnnnn Skel-thone.....marca al tiros de arca LAAAAAA-RRRREEEEEE FEEEEEEEETZ-YYYYYYERALD!!!!"


I'll do that too, especially when the Fox broadcast team is too annoying. And the odd thing is, you barely lose anything listening in a language you don't understand. It turns out that most commentators are basically saying (a) the names of the players, (b) things you just saw with your own eyes and (c) stupid shiat you'd never miss
 
2012-09-12 11:46:53 AM  
Lol, html sarcasm fail.
 
2012-09-12 11:48:39 AM  
Pure West Coast teams number about 4, right? 49ers, Raiders, Chargers, Seahawks. Miss any?

One team that magically is A caliber year after year. Two teams that are usually B-/C+. And the Raiders.

And the 49ers probably get more than their fair share of prime time games.

No Sandman needed.
 
2012-09-12 11:52:33 AM  
Now that this has been publicized the effect will go away within weeks.

People will change betting patterns and bookies will adjust spreads to keep the bets even above and below the spread.

This will encourage people to bet and bookies will profit. This guy should publish some more betting tips.
 
2012-09-12 11:55:58 AM  

rickythepenguin: except arizona and i think a little part of Illinoir or Indiana doesn't do DST.


You just switch from Pacific (summer) to Mountain (Winter). It's never more than a three-hour difference (except when a team plays in London). Your second paragraph was accurate, your first one was weird.

jigoro: One team that magically is A caliber year after year. Two teams that are usually B-/C+. And the Raiders.


Which team is A-caliber year after year? Please don't tell me you're saying it's San Francisco, who has won the division since realignment a whole two times.
 
2012-09-12 11:58:40 AM  

czetie: I'll do that too, especially when the Fox broadcast team is too annoying. And the odd thing is, you barely lose anything listening in a language you don't understand. It turns out that most commentators are basically saying (a) the names of the players, (b) things you just saw with your own eyes and (c) stupid shiat you'd never miss


For some real fun, mute the game and do the play-by-play yourself!

/This works great when watching the game at someone else's house.
//Also in sports bars and department stores.
 
2012-09-12 12:02:08 PM  

IAmRight: jigoro: One team that magically is A caliber year after year. Two teams that are usually B-/C+. And the Raiders.

Which team is A-caliber year after year? Please don't tell me you're saying it's San Francisco, who has won the division since realignment a whole two times.


I didn't see in the article when the study was performed, but I'd like to think it was somewhat recent. In that case I guess San Diego could qualify as an A caliber team (as long as we're only talking the regular season, of course). But going back a quarter century would encompass a couple different teams as "A caliber", the 90s Niners, early-2000's Raiders and the brief Seahawks Era, along with the Chargers regular seasons of the 2000's.
 
2012-09-12 12:05:53 PM  

IAmRight: rickythepenguin: except arizona and i think a little part of Illinoir or Indiana doesn't do DST.

You just switch from Pacific (summer) to Mountain (Winter). It's never more than a three-hour difference (except when a team plays in London). Your second paragraph was accurate, your first one was weird.

jigoro: One team that magically is A caliber year after year. Two teams that are usually B-/C+. And the Raiders.

Which team is A-caliber year after year? Please don't tell me you're saying it's San Francisco, who has won the division since realignment a whole two times.


I think he meant the chargers.
 
2012-09-12 12:08:02 PM  

rickythepenguin: when i was stationed in california, it was odd as shiat to wake up at say, 10AM Sunday and the game is already in the second quarter


10:00 am in California is 1:00pm on the east coast. So your statement is not factual.
 
2012-09-12 12:15:53 PM  

Sin_City_Superhero: 10:00 am in California is 1:00pm on the east coast. So your statement is not factual.


sorry. it's been 20 years.
 
2012-09-12 12:20:31 PM  

rickythepenguin: Sin_City_Superhero: 10:00 am in California is 1:00pm on the east coast. So your statement is not factual.

sorry. it's been 20 years.


He really slept in until 11 AM.
 
2012-09-12 12:26:44 PM  

rickythepenguin: Sin_City_Superhero: 10:00 am in California is 1:00pm on the east coast. So your statement is not factual.

sorry. it's been 20 years.


It's possible if you're thinking of college ball, which can start that early. I remember liking watching crappy morning matchups that way - you wake up, you flip around, you already know if any of those games are even going to be worth checking out. If not, then you go get some food while you're waiting for the real (Pac-10) games to begin.

Stimied in a Rut: I think he meant the chargers.


Well, the Chargers haven't been an A team for a couple of years. And prior to 2004 they were one of the worst teams in football for a few years.
 
2012-09-12 12:29:24 PM  

Cincinnati Kid: . I also would like to see the actual study where this 70% figure comes from before I truly buy into this.


Thats reasonable

Generation_D: ZAZ: Over a quarter-century span, the West Coast teams beat the East an amazing 70 percent of the time against the spread.

Spreads are determined by betting patterns, right? So most of the money comes from people who don't know about away coast advantage. Smart people may have been taking advantage of the 2:1 odds. Now they'll have to bust some kneecaps for publicizing the effect.

Except the spread is set by oddsmakers responding to demand from the betting public.

Where's probably 3/4 of the betting public live? Not the West Coast. Who do they favor? Their own teams. So all this really is showing is the betting public on the East Coast, South and Midwest favors its own teams more than looking at it rationally. So the betting line adjusts to try to move the betting over to the Western teams.

So the real crime here is someone figured this out and is publicizing it. Sounds to me like great insider knowledge all these years.

A twist on East Coast Bias -- more people living in a region overvalues their own home teams, to the betterment of those on the other coast. Kind of awesome, unless you are the ones that kept moving the line on the Giants or Patriots up to 12, 15 points every week just because you and everyone else around you couldn't imagine them not beating the Seahawks or Niners by 30.


Thats pulled from thin air.
 
2012-09-12 12:29:33 PM  

Theaetetus: He really slept in until 11 AM.


the CSB part is we had this huge barracks room with a giant TV and every Sunday people would start filtering in. There was always one jackwipe that wanted to watch Captain Zippy vs the Space-Chimps on Sci-Fi but the rest of us that wanted football ruled the TV. But yeah, it was way early in teh morning. I said 9, Fark's Fact Checker Brigade came out in force and roundly and soundly put me in my place.
 
2012-09-12 12:33:27 PM  
Lets see we have gammes starting at 8AM Chargers time and games in the second quarter at 10 am on the west coast?

Math is harder on the east coast.
 
2012-09-12 12:41:03 PM  
upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-09-12 01:08:44 PM  

IAmRight: Of course, it also hurts them when they go play in the East (which they have to do more than anyone goes west, thanks to the geographical alignment). You might also want to consider that they're not putting any West Coast teams in prime time against an East Coast opponent unless the West Coast team is good.


Also a very good point.

Whole lot of results-driven research going on here.

Keep betting your Giants and Patriots guys, they will cover it this time I'm sure.
 
2012-09-12 01:36:22 PM  
West coast is best coast for football.

Wake up and games are ready to start. Get to eat a fatty breakfast while watching the early games, a fatty lunch for the late games, and between 4pm-5:30pm (last late game ends, before SNF) is enough time to cook up a nice fatty dinner. Night game ends around 8:30 so there's still time to go out afterwards. Also drinking beer at 10am can be a plus.
 
2012-09-12 01:50:02 PM  

4NSpy: Get to eat a fatty breakfast while watching the early games, a fatty lunch for the late games, and between 4pm-5:30pm (last late game ends, before SNF) is enough time to cook up a nice fatty dinner. Night game ends around 8:30 so there's still time to go out afterwards. Also drinking beer at 10am can be a plus.



UofP stadium has assholey tailgate rules.....I think I read last week were the gates opened at 1130AM for the 1PM game. I could be wrong.

but when the Cards were at Sun Devil, the tailgates started whenever your fat ass felt like it. We used to park in Karsten Golf Course across the street, and it was not unusual to be throwin' suds at 8am for a 1PM game! I'm not proud of it, just sayin'.

i remember a game where we started waaaaaaaaaaaay early, drank during the whole game (smuggled in probably a six pack), then after the game the party started again. my wife was the DD and when she came to pick us up, I was absolutely housed. it was basically 12 hours of drinking. again, not proud of it, just saying. course when you're, you know, 25, that ain't shiat.
 
2012-09-12 01:57:47 PM  
I'd like to actually see the numbers.
 
2012-09-12 02:06:40 PM  

4NSpy: West coast is best coast for football.

Wake up and games are ready to start. Get to eat a fatty breakfast while watching the early games, a fatty lunch for the late games, and between 4pm-5:30pm (last late game ends, before SNF) is enough time to cook up a nice fatty dinner. Night game ends around 8:30 so there's still time to go out afterwards. Also drinking beer at 10am can be a plus.


You know how I know you're not religious?
 
2012-09-12 02:26:51 PM  
I live in Newfoundland. These 5am kickoffs really grind my gears
 
2012-09-12 02:30:25 PM  

HaywoodJablonski: I live in Newfoundland. These 5:30am kickoffs really grind my gears


FTFY
 
2012-09-12 02:32:16 PM  

4NSpy: HaywoodJablonski: I live in Newfoundland. These 5:30am kickoffs really grind my gears

FTFY


Good call. Had a couple of beers so my head isn't clear
 
2012-09-12 02:33:15 PM  
Back on topic, I like to fade the West Coast teams when they play the early games on the east coast.

Of course, that meant I was betting against Raiders/Seattle/SF(pre-Harbaugh era), which was usually a safe play.
 
2012-09-12 03:47:19 PM  

EponymousCowHerd: Cincinnati Kid: I've heard the opposite happens during day games when a west coast team goes east. For example, if the Chargers play at the Patriots and it's a 1PM kickoff, that's 8AM to the Chargers. They aren't used to being ready to play at that time and don't do well. I've never seen an actual study to determine if this is true, however. I also would like to see the actual study where this 70% figure comes from before I truly buy into this.

You need to check your time zone math. 1PM Eastern is only 10AM Pacific. Early, but not horrible.


The games start at 10 AM. The players have to be up several hours before that in order to get there on time, get ready and warm-up. They are probably up by 5 or 6 AM Pacific time to play at 10.
 
2012-09-12 04:10:18 PM  

netweavr: 4NSpy: West coast is best coast for football.

Wake up and games are ready to start. Get to eat a fatty breakfast while watching the early games, a fatty lunch for the late games, and between 4pm-5:30pm (last late game ends, before SNF) is enough time to cook up a nice fatty dinner. Night game ends around 8:30 so there's still time to go out afterwards. Also drinking beer at 10am can be a plus.

You know how I know you're not religious?


Is it because Christians only drink wine, not beer, at 10AM on a Sunday? And then they call it blood, because that's somehow more societally acceptable?

Or because you wrongly equate "religious" with "Christian"? If I were a practising Jew, why would my beer-swilling on Sunday morning say anything at all about my devoutness?
 
2012-09-12 04:25:03 PM  
Funny. I could've sworn he was a Giants' fan. :\

i1182.photobucket.com
 
2012-09-12 04:26:57 PM  

xpisblack: netweavr: 4NSpy: West coast is best coast for football.

Wake up and games are ready to start. Get to eat a fatty breakfast while watching the early games, a fatty lunch for the late games, and between 4pm-5:30pm (last late game ends, before SNF) is enough time to cook up a nice fatty dinner. Night game ends around 8:30 so there's still time to go out afterwards. Also drinking beer at 10am can be a plus.

You know how I know you're not religious?

Is it because Christians only drink wine, not beer, at 10AM on a Sunday? And then they call it blood, because that's somehow more societally acceptable?

Or because you wrongly equate "religious" with "Christian"? If I were a practising Jew, why would my beer-swilling on Sunday morning say anything at all about my devoutness?


Know how I know you're no fun at parties?
 
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