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(Washington Post)   Obama convention bounce is 'sugar high,' Romney pollster says, whereas the RNC skipped the high and went straight to the sugar crash   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 188
    More: Obvious, President Obama, convention bounce, pollsters, Rasmussen poll, Neil Newhouse, Albuquerque Journal, basic structure, Democratic National Convention  
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1110 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Sep 2012 at 3:08 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-10 12:14:03 PM  
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters. In the memo, Newhouse wrote that Obama "has seen a bounce from his convention" but contended that the president's approval ratings are likely to recede in the weeks ahead.

he seems concerned.
 
2012-09-10 12:23:12 PM  

Weaver95: Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters. In the memo, Newhouse wrote that Obama "has seen a bounce from his convention" but contended that the president's approval ratings are likely to recede in the weeks ahead.

he seems concerned.


Wouldn't you be in his position? You're captaining the Titanic, and the floodgates on the bottom of the boat are overflowing. All you can do is wait and watch the boat sink. That's not a fun position to be in.
 
2012-09-10 12:30:38 PM  
 
2012-09-10 12:31:36 PM  
I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already. 
 
2012-09-10 12:34:29 PM  

I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.


I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.
 
2012-09-10 12:43:22 PM  
So Mitt is the Sugar Smack frog, and Ryan is the generic cartoon character from the bagged cereal on the bottom shelf?
 
2012-09-10 12:51:19 PM  

Teknowaffle: So Mitt is the Sugar Smack frog, and Ryan is the generic cartoon character from the bagged cereal on the bottom shelf?


i47.tinypic.com

To boldly go... to Kolob.
 
2012-09-10 12:54:41 PM  

I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.


really? both conventions turned out about as I expected. well...ok, I did not expect the GOP to let Clint Eastwood embarrass the f*ck out of the party. Nor did I expect Clinton's speech to be 'rock star' level quality. But that's neither here nor there. But I expected a backlash against the GOP. you can't spend two years purging moderates and enforcing a rigid, intolerant ideology without pissing people off. give them nowhere to turn to and they're going to leave and go work for your opposition.
 
2012-09-10 12:56:29 PM  
Sounds like Romney needs some 5-Hour Energy
 
2012-09-10 12:59:27 PM  
If the DNC's high is from sugar, the source of RNC's high must be from meth.
 
2012-09-10 01:23:11 PM  
Obama's all jacked up on Mountain Dew!
 
2012-09-10 01:32:36 PM  

Weaver95: Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters. In the memo, Newhouse wrote that Obama "has seen a bounce from his convention" but contended that the president's approval ratings are likely to recede in the weeks ahead.

he seems concerned.


Nah. He doesn't worry too much about facts.
 
2012-09-10 02:02:20 PM  
Mitt Romney has 140 million in the bank. I think he's saving up all his cash to do a one-month long swing state bombardment of negative advertising starting October 1st to coincide with the first debates.
 
2012-09-10 02:13:31 PM  
I always trust analysis of a political race that are totally devoid of polling data.
 
2012-09-10 02:19:15 PM  

GAT_00: I always trust analysis of a political race that are totally devoid of polling data.


what I find incomprehensible is the fact that the GOP acknowledges Obama's got a solid lead now and....the Republicans don't seem to be interested at all in discussing why that's the case. Not even amongst themselves. I mean ok, sure - don't discuss the Obama lead in public. I get that. But smart people who want to win would sit down and have a quiet moment with their command staff and figure out WTF was going wrong with the Republican efforts to win this election.
 
2012-09-10 02:43:29 PM  
I wish I could hotlink to the fivethirtyeight graphs, but here's a different look at the Romney campaign

padresteve.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-09-10 03:10:28 PM  

Weaver95: I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.

really? both conventions turned out about as I expected. well...ok, I did not expect the GOP to let Clint Eastwood embarrass the f*ck out of the party. Nor did I expect Clinton's speech to be 'rock star' level quality. But that's neither here nor there. But I expected a backlash against the GOP. you can't spend two years purging moderates and enforcing a rigid, intolerant ideology without pissing people off. give them nowhere to turn to and they're going to leave and go work for your opposition.


You forgot to mention Paul Ryan giving a speech so full of lies that, in editing Dylan Matthews's fact check of the speech, it took Ezra Klein two full reads of the transcript to find an additional "true" statement from the speech to make the report look at least somewhat fair. I think it's a reasonable assumption that some people saw the reports calling Paul Ryan a liar and turned against him and Romney.
 
2012-09-10 03:11:26 PM  
Wow - sour grapes much?
 
2012-09-10 03:11:42 PM  

Weaver95: GAT_00: I always trust analysis of a political race that are totally devoid of polling data.

what I find incomprehensible is the fact that the GOP acknowledges Obama's got a solid lead now and....the Republicans don't seem to be interested at all in discussing why that's the case. Not even amongst themselves. I mean ok, sure - don't discuss the Obama lead in public. I get that. But smart people who want to win would sit down and have a quiet moment with their command staff and figure out WTF was going wrong with the Republican efforts to win this election.


They have figured it out. Romney's been losing because of biased fact checkers.
 
2012-09-10 03:12:58 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.

I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.


They're also disenfranchised in that Romney is not an appealing candidate to anyone in the GOP, he's just the least unappealing candidate to the most people. They can't possibly generate serious excitement under that kind of strategy, and that's the only real way to prevent the Obama political machine from chewing up and spitting out a campaign.
 
2012-09-10 03:13:07 PM  
So their motto is "Slow and steady wins the racists".
 
2012-09-10 03:13:09 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.


In the end, people want to support the guys that are like "C'mon people, we can DO this!" Everybody wants to be on the winning team.
 
2012-09-10 03:14:22 PM  
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters.
hisvorpal.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-09-10 03:15:31 PM  

Weaver95: GAT_00: I always trust analysis of a political race that are totally devoid of polling data.

what I find incomprehensible is the fact that the GOP acknowledges Obama's got a solid lead now and....the Republicans don't seem to be interested at all in discussing why that's the case. Not even amongst themselves. I mean ok, sure - don't discuss the Obama lead in public. I get that. But smart people who want to win would sit down and have a quiet moment with their command staff and figure out WTF was going wrong with the Republican efforts to win this election.


Well yeah, normal people would do that in a normal campaign. We've slowly realized that this is not the case for the modern GOP as they're running Romneybot 2.0 in a bid for the presidency that he should've won easily and has been running for a decade now, and he still blows. I think the establishment is just in shock at this point.

It's like aliens have invaded earth and you're on the ground watching all the Air Forces of the Earth charge up to take them on and in one flash of light, all the planes are vaporized and you're left in a "well fark me" moment of stupor. That's what the GOP is in at the moment
 
2012-09-10 03:15:51 PM  
I'm not sure whether it's better to undersell your political position or oversell. In the undersell people are pushed by urgency that their vote matters and they are needed thus they show up to vote. In the oversell there is the popularity appeal; if everyone else feels Romnibot 2012 is a good candidate then so do I. It seems as though political strategists play both sides.
 
2012-09-10 03:16:34 PM  

Weaver95: GAT_00: I always trust analysis of a political race that are totally devoid of polling data.

what I find incomprehensible is the fact that the GOP acknowledges Obama's got a solid lead now and....the Republicans don't seem to be interested at all in discussing why that's the case. Not even amongst themselves. I mean ok, sure - don't discuss the Obama lead in public. I get that. But smart people who want to win would sit down and have a quiet moment with their command staff and figure out WTF was going wrong with the Republican efforts to win this election.


They can't do that though. Admitting you have a problem is just asking for the RINO label. What you're describing is the obvious result of the "team first" mentality we've been seeing from the gop lately.

A part of me honestly wonders if mitt will actually make a concession speech when he loses, or if he will just keep campaigning indefinitely.
 
2012-09-10 03:16:37 PM  

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.

In the end, people want to support the guys that are like "C'mon people, we can DO this!" Everybody wants to be on the winning team.


I like that Obama has not played the victim card. Others have done it for him, but he has not gotten whiny about how those damn republicans won't work with him.

Instead when asked why he had not gotten more of his agenda done he blames spending time with his family and not glad handing abound Washington. class act. nobody likes a weepy vagina.
 
2012-09-10 03:16:43 PM  

RexTalionis: Mitt Romney has 140 million in the bank. I think he's saving up all his cash to do a one-month long swing state bombardment of negative advertising starting October 1st to coincide with the first debates.


That's too late. All that having negative ads in October does is make you look like a bad person. You have to do them in July and August, when the stuff hits home but people have time to forgive you for going negative. Even early September is traditionally too late, but I can see it working.

I've never heard of anyone waiting until October.
 
2012-09-10 03:16:49 PM  

sprawl15: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.

I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.

They're also disenfranchised in that Romney is not an appealing candidate to anyone in the GOP, he's just the least unappealing candidate to the most people. They can't possibly generate serious excitement under that kind of strategy, and that's the only real way to prevent the Obama political machine from chewing up and spitting out a campaign.


The Democrats already tried an Anybody But the POTUS strategy, and they proved it is a miserable failure. Trying it again while expecting it to work this time is the definition of insanity.
 
2012-09-10 03:16:57 PM  
One time Mitt drank a Pepsi and hallucinated. Hasn't touched the stuff since. Calls it "The Devil's Bubbles".
 
2012-09-10 03:18:28 PM  
To be fair to Romney his best legislative accomplishment, Romneycare, is a huge liability to him instead of a positive. I mean Jesus Christ, imagine a world where he could actually come out and say "I developed the healthcare law that became a model for the nation and led to helping millions of uninsured Americans, so I think I know a little something about running successful government programs." Instead of "Herp a derp you're on your own suckers! Repeal!!! Repeal!!!" If I were him it would literally be killing me.
 
2012-09-10 03:19:40 PM  

hugram: Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney's pollster and senior strategist, wrote a memorandum released to reporters to rebut the conventional wisdom that Romney has fallen behind in the presidential race and to calm any panic among supporters.
[hisvorpal.files.wordpress.com image 300x225]


This is just a temporary bounce after the convention. When it subsides, Obama will be beating Romney by only a 2%-3% margin. That should make the conservatives feel better and don't mention the debates because that is just mean at this point.
 
2012-09-10 03:20:03 PM  

amiable: To be fair to Romney his best legislative accomplishment, Romneycare, is a huge liability to him instead of a positive. I mean Jesus Christ, imagine a world where he could actually come out and say "I developed the healthcare law that became a model for the nation and led to helping millions of uninsured Americans, so I think I know a little something about running successful government programs." Instead of "Herp a derp you're on your own suckers! Repeal!!! Repeal!!!" If I were him it would literally be killing me.


this pretty much sums up the insanity of the 21st century republican party.
 
2012-09-10 03:20:54 PM  

amiable: To be fair to Romney his best legislative accomplishment, Romneycare, is a huge liability to him instead of a positive. I mean Jesus Christ, imagine a world where he could actually come out and say "I developed the healthcare law that became a model for the nation and led to helping millions of uninsured Americans, so I think I know a little something about running successful government programs." Instead of "Herp a derp you're on your own suckers! Repeal!!! Repeal!!!" If I were him it would literally be killing me.


Between Romneycare, his assault weapons ban, and the legalization of Gay Marriage in MA, Mitt Romney is the best democratic candidate for president of the last 50 years.
 
2012-09-10 03:20:55 PM  
The Clinton bounce is what it is. Nothing more. Just a reminder, Obama can't run on his record and needs this. Also, remember, Clinton is 0-2 when he went to bat for Gore and Hillary. Looks like Barry will be his final strike.
 
2012-09-10 03:20:57 PM  

amiable: To be fair to Romney his best legislative accomplishment, Romneycare, is a huge liability to him instead of a positive. I mean Jesus Christ, imagine a world where he could actually come out and say "I developed the healthcare law that became a model for the nation and led to helping millions of uninsured Americans, so I think I know a little something about running successful government programs." Instead of "Herp a derp you're on your own suckers! Repeal!!! Repeal!!!" If I were him it would literally be killing me.



Romney should have run as a Liberal again like he did in Massachusetts. I'm serious.
 
2012-09-10 03:21:17 PM  

Serious Black: You forgot to mention Paul Ryan giving a speech so full of lies that, in editing Dylan Matthews's fact check of the speech, it took Ezra Klein two full reads of the transcript to find an additional "true" statement from the speech to make the report look at least somewhat fair. I think it's a reasonable assumption that some people saw the reports calling Paul Ryan a liar and turned against him and Romney.


That is a farking fantastic article.
 
2012-09-10 03:21:27 PM  

Serious Black: sprawl15: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.

I suspect the reality of the matter is that moderate Republicans are not polarized, they're disenfranchised. Seeing as the Democratic party right now is basically taking all of the GOP's non-extremist marbles and running away with them, there's a portion of the electorate that can, indeed, be swayed.

They're also disenfranchised in that Romney is not an appealing candidate to anyone in the GOP, he's just the least unappealing candidate to the most people. They can't possibly generate serious excitement under that kind of strategy, and that's the only real way to prevent the Obama political machine from chewing up and spitting out a campaign.

The Democrats already tried an Anybody But the POTUS strategy, and they proved it is a miserable failure. Trying it again while expecting it to work this time is the definition of insanity.


Interestingly, the Democrats seem to have (more or less stumbled into) a situation that is sort of the polar opposite of the 1990s/2000s Republican strategy, wherein they got lots and lots of Republicans elected at the state level and then built on that.

On the national stage, the Democrats' bench is suddenly 5-6 deep. The Republican bench, aside from Huntsman, is all but unelectable.
 
2012-09-10 03:21:55 PM  

MayoSlather: I'm not sure whether it's better to undersell your political position or oversell. In the undersell people are pushed by urgency that their vote matters and they are needed thus they show up to vote. In the oversell there is the popularity appeal; if everyone else feels Romnibot 2012 is a good candidate then so do I. It seems as though political strategists play both sides.


American voters (like many countries) are pretty ignorant generally speaking. However, most Americans can smell a used car salesman a mile. Obama might just win this election on credibility alone.
 
2012-09-10 03:21:56 PM  

Weaver95: I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already.

really? both conventions turned out about as I expected. well...ok, I did not expect the GOP to let Clint Eastwood embarrass the f*ck out of the party. Nor did I expect Clinton's speech to be 'rock star' level quality. But that's neither here nor there. But I expected a backlash against the GOP. you can't spend two years purging moderates and enforcing a rigid, intolerant ideology without pissing people off. give them nowhere to turn to and they're going to leave and go work for your opposition.


As a right-leaning moderate, I done been purged.

Can't stand the Tea Party and their ignorance and intolerance. Can't stand Romney and his former Bush-ite advisers who got us into this economic quagmire in the first place. And can't stand the Republicans in Congress who have chosen to sit on their hands and obstruct anything that might possibly help the economy over the past few years.

I will not reward jackassery when I vote.
 
2012-09-10 03:22:24 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: One time Mitt drank a Pepsi and hallucinated. Hasn't touched the stuff since. Calls it "The Devil's Bubbles".


Haloween probably sucks at their house.
 
2012-09-10 03:22:45 PM  

phreezen: The Clinton bounce is what it is. Nothing more. Just a reminder, Obama can't run on his record and needs this. Also, remember, Clinton is 0-2 when he went to bat for Gore and Hillary. Looks like Barry will be his final strike.


The convention bounce is a known phenomenon, your "Clinton" silliness aside. Convention bounces happen, and then they normalize. The interesting thing in all of this is that the Romney bounce was much lower than it should have been, and the Obama bounce was much higher than it should have been.
 
2012-09-10 03:23:05 PM  

amiable: To be fair to Romney his best legislative accomplishment, Romneycare, is a huge liability to him instead of a positive. I mean Jesus Christ, imagine a world where he could actually come out and say "I developed the healthcare law that became a model for the nation and led to helping millions of uninsured Americans, so I think I know a little something about running successful government programs." Instead of "Herp a derp you're on your own suckers! Repeal!!! Repeal!!!" If I were him it would literally be killing me.


THIS! If the only way you can win your party's nomination is by running away from your record you're not going to be seen as a credible candidate by anyone. The partisans will still vote for you, but it's not enough.
 
2012-09-10 03:23:11 PM  
"Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Newhouse wrote. "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."

i.chzbgr.com
 
2012-09-10 03:24:26 PM  

phreezen: Obama can't run on his record


But he is running on his record.
 
2012-09-10 03:25:06 PM  
Shut up Romney, you lying thieving cocksucker.
 
2012-09-10 03:25:18 PM  

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: On the national stage, the Democrats' bench is suddenly 5-6 deep. The Republican bench, aside from Huntsman, is all but unelectable.


dude, Huntsman is electable...but not by Republicans. He'll end up converting to being a conservative Democrat in due time.
 
2012-09-10 03:26:22 PM  

I_C_Weener: I admit it.  Obama's post convention bounce is higher than  I thought it would be.  I anticipated both campaigns would have a small to no bounce due to the polarization of voters already. 


I thought the same thing until I sat actually watching the conventions. The GOP put up their old, fat and angry white guys up with the occasional younger skinny white guy (who all look like Alpha Beta frat brothers) to break the monotony. Then they cap it off with a beloved, but near senile celebrity and their robotic nominee. The hurricane delay only compounded things and just served to remind everything of Katrina.

All the Dems had to do was not screw up. Instead, it seems like they had a great collection of honestly charismatic speakers. Some will say that Dems try to hard at diversity for PC reasons, but it says a lot when you aren't trotting white guy after white guy, and when you do bring out the white guy, it's Bill Clinton.
 
2012-09-10 03:26:34 PM  
If the conventions give a 'sugar high' boost to the polls... where the fark was Mitt's?
 
2012-09-10 03:26:35 PM  

phreezen: The Clinton bounce is what it is. Nothing more. Just a reminder, Obama can't run on his record and needs this. Also, remember, Clinton is 0-2 when he went to bat for Gore and Hillary. Looks like Barry will be his final strike.


Bill Clinton is the Reggie Jackson of Presidents.
 
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