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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver's election odds reach an all-time high of 80% for Obama winning. Surely, this is bad news...for Obama   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 227
    More: Interesting, obama  
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2531 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Sep 2012 at 10:58 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-10 09:53:47 AM  
This just means Romney's inevitable victory will be all the more delicious.
 
2012-09-10 09:57:20 AM  
This just means those polled are afraid of being called racists by the pollsters, who are trained to yell "RACIST!" into the phone whenever someone says they are voting for Romney. I heard about it on Red State.
 
2012-09-10 10:02:28 AM  
It means that a large percentage of the people that emo-hate the president live in states with smaller electoral college numbers. Which was the sole reason the electoral college was put in place to begin with.
 
2012-09-10 10:05:39 AM  
If you click "No Toss-ups" in Real Clear Politics which is poll averager you get 332 to 206 for Obama.

That's pretty funny. Not saying this is what the result of the election will but if Romney doesn't get some traction, it won't be far off. I'm still thinking it is possible that Romney loses worse than McCain.
 
2012-09-10 10:17:53 AM  
I wonder if it's hard to get Sheldon Adelson to cough up $10 million on 1 in 5 odds? Oh wait, yeah Newt Gingrich...
 
2012-09-10 10:25:23 AM  

mrshowrules: I'm still thinking it is possible that Romney loses worse than McCain.


I don't see how that's possible. What state would flip from GOP to DEM? Missouri? Not happening. Meanwhile, Indiana at the very least is going to flip back to GOP.
 
2012-09-10 10:28:05 AM  

NowhereMon: I wonder if it's hard to get Sheldon Adelson to cough up $10 million on 1 in 5 odds? Oh wait, yeah Newt Gingrich...


I don't know why he doesn't just cut out the middle man and give his money directly to Israel.
 
2012-09-10 10:28:28 AM  

Serious Black: This just means Romney's inevitable victory will be all the more delicious.


Looking forward to eating that Stetson, eh?
 
2012-09-10 10:31:38 AM  
I'm sure the Democrats will find a way to fark this up.
 
2012-09-10 10:43:19 AM  

mrshowrules: If you click "No Toss-ups" in Real Clear Politics which is poll averager you get 332 to 206 for Obama.

That's pretty funny. Not saying this is what the result of the election will but if Romney doesn't get some traction, it won't be far off. I'm still thinking it is possible that Romney loses worse than McCain.


Hell, PPP put Obama up by 5 in Ohio. Sure that's due to the bounce, but that's a big lead for a swing state. A four point swing from there over two months would be pretty big and Obama would still win.

If the DNC bounce is as big as it is looking to be, this is pretty locked up. It isn't done, but you'd need to be a far better campaigner than Mitt Romney is to pull it back.
 
2012-09-10 10:45:17 AM  

GAT_00: Hell, PPP put Obama up by 5 in Ohio. Sure that's due to the bounce, but that's a big lead for a swing state.


Maybe I'm too much of a negative nellie, but I thought PPP showing him up 5 was a little disappointing. PPP tends to a have a Democratic lean, and their pre-convention poll already had him up 3, so it was a very small bounce, if any.
 
2012-09-10 10:46:07 AM  

DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?


Texas.
 
2012-09-10 10:46:33 AM  

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: I'm still thinking it is possible that Romney loses worse than McCain.

I don't see how that's possible. What state would flip from GOP to DEM? Missouri? Not happening. Meanwhile, Indiana at the very least is going to flip back to GOP.


Good point. To beat Romney worse than McCain, Obama would have to take NC, Wisconsin, Missouri and (Georgia or Arizona). That would require a 9 point swing for either Georgia or Arizona so perhaps not likely. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney to completely implode by then.
 
2012-09-10 10:47:33 AM  

impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.


There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.
 
2012-09-10 10:51:09 AM  

DamnYankees: GAT_00: Hell, PPP put Obama up by 5 in Ohio. Sure that's due to the bounce, but that's a big lead for a swing state.

Maybe I'm too much of a negative nellie, but I thought PPP showing him up 5 was a little disappointing. PPP tends to a have a Democratic lean, and their pre-convention poll already had him up 3, so it was a very small bounce, if any.


Maybe. I didn't check the survey date, so that would matter too.

DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.


Texas will vote Democratic in a Presidential by 2020.
 
2012-09-10 10:51:58 AM  

GAT_00: Texas will vote Democratic in a Presidential by 2020.


Maybe, but that doesn't help us much in figuring out Obama's 2012 electoral vote count.
 
2012-09-10 11:01:03 AM  

JerseyTim: I'm sure the Democrats will find a way to fark this up.


Just like '08, yeah?
 
2012-09-10 11:01:57 AM  

DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.


Dunno. While there's a lot of die hards here in Texas, there's also a lot that are disillusioned with the Republican party in general (bunch of RINOS! or bunch of corrupt idiots!) or ones that simply hate Romney. It's not that they will start being "liberals" but more they might just not vote at all.
 
2012-09-10 11:02:00 AM  
Is this just the fact that Romney is such a loser, or are we seeing a shift in the country to left?

Yes, both are possible at once.
 
2012-09-10 11:02:11 AM  
Actually voting would be a waste of time.

This thing's in the bag, so stay home and watch your stories, libs.
 
2012-09-10 11:02:16 AM  

DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.


Geometric population progressions means you are only right for 2012.
 
2012-09-10 11:02:36 AM  
Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Obama supporters for Huntsman
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.
 
2012-09-10 11:03:26 AM  

Cletus C.: Actually voting would be a waste of time.

This thing's in the bag, so stay home and watch your stories, libs.


Wait, aren't you going to tell me which day and where to vote, Mr. Concerned Conservative Citizen on the Phone?
 
2012-09-10 11:03:37 AM  

DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.


On September 21, 2008, Rassmusen had McCain up by 21 points in Arizona. Obama only lost Arizona by 3.5 points. Romney is up by 7.5 points in Texas. Unlikely but within the realm of possibility.
 
2012-09-10 11:04:16 AM  

sprawl15: Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Obama supporters for Huntsman
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


You forgot.

4. Arugula Haters
5. Flag Pin Manufacturers
6. Khaki Manufacturers / Laborers
 
2012-09-10 11:04:20 AM  
Oh boy. The "Bad News...for Obama" headlines are starting up again. Starting to get those flashbacks to 2008. Unless Romney can find some way to make inroads in Ohio that'll about do it. Unfortunately for Romney, every time he appears on TV he reminds people more and more of every asshole Senior VP who ever made their work life needlessly hellish.
 
2012-09-10 11:04:21 AM  

BigBooper: Is this just the fact that Romney is such a loser, or are we seeing a shift in the country to left?

Yes, both are possible at once.


Nah. Romney's a loser, and the right wing is alienating moderate and even center-right voters. I don't think it resembles any sort of real shift leftward, specific issues like gay rights notwithstanding.
 
2012-09-10 11:04:35 AM  

sprawl15: 3. Silent Majority


can we switch this to the "truck nuts" majority? I think that fits better.
 
2012-09-10 11:05:30 AM  

DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.


We can dream, can't we?
 
2012-09-10 11:05:50 AM  

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.

On September 21, 2008, Rassmusen had McCain up by 21 points in Arizona. Obama only lost Arizona by 3.5 points. Romney is up by 7.5 points in Texas. Unlikely but within the realm of possibility.


Yeah, and then McCain imploded with his September surprises - his comments about the economy, and the Honorable Mongoloid from Alaska.

So, Romney will have to take his campaign to new depths to have that kind of precipitous decline.
 
2012-09-10 11:06:04 AM  

coeyagi: Cletus C.: Actually voting would be a waste of time.

This thing's in the bag, so stay home and watch your stories, libs.

Wait, aren't you going to tell me which day and where to vote, Mr. Concerned Conservative Citizen on the Phone?


With the new Grace Day legislation you will be allowed to vote Wednesday, Nov. 7 until 9 p.m. if the Tuesday results are not to your satisfaction.
 
2012-09-10 11:06:06 AM  

BigBooper: sprawl15: 3. Silent Majority

can we switch this to the "truck nuts" majority? I think that fits better.


On the contrary, truck nutz show that you're loud and proud.
 
2012-09-10 11:06:37 AM  

DamnYankees: GAT_00: Texas will vote Democratic in a Presidential by 2020.

Maybe, but that doesn't help us much in figuring out Obama's 2012 electoral vote count.


I for one am glad that the debate has shifted to how badly Romney will lose.
 
2012-09-10 11:06:52 AM  
Your overconfidence is your weakness.
 
2012-09-10 11:07:52 AM  

Dr Dreidel: Your overconfidence is your weakness.


Your faith in your friends is yours.
 
2012-09-10 11:07:58 AM  

coeyagi: So, Romney will have to take his campaign to new depths to have that kind of precipitous decline.


Two words:

De bates.
 
2012-09-10 11:08:16 AM  
I wonder if the GOP will allow Obama to govern in his second term since he can't win a third even if they don't obstruct him.

also

Dr Dreidel: Your overconfidence is your weakness.


YOUR LOYALTY TO YOUR FRIENDS IS YOURS
 
2012-09-10 11:08:17 AM  

coeyagi: mrshowrules: DamnYankees: impaler: DamnYankees: What state would flip from GOP to DEM?

Texas.

There is a zero percent chance of that happening. Please.

On September 21, 2008, Rassmusen had McCain up by 21 points in Arizona. Obama only lost Arizona by 3.5 points. Romney is up by 7.5 points in Texas. Unlikely but within the realm of possibility.

Yeah, and then McCain imploded with his September surprises - his comments about the economy, and the Honorable Mongoloid from Alaska.

So, Romney will have to take his campaign to new depths to have that kind of precipitous decline.


This stuff with the taxes could blow up in his face. If they really do find out he signed up for the tax amnesty in 2009, that could be pretty huge.
 
2012-09-10 11:08:27 AM  

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: I'm still thinking it is possible that Romney loses worse than McCain.

I don't see how that's possible. What state would flip from GOP to DEM? Missouri? Not happening. Meanwhile, Indiana at the very least is going to flip back to GOP.


Yeah, electorally there's no way for Obama to really do BETTER than the McCain raise. He is still going to beat Romney though.
 
2012-09-10 11:08:27 AM  

Cletus C.: coeyagi: Cletus C.: Actually voting would be a waste of time.

This thing's in the bag, so stay home and watch your stories, libs.

Wait, aren't you going to tell me which day and where to vote, Mr. Concerned Conservative Citizen on the Phone?

With the new Grace Day legislation you will be allowed to vote Wednesday, Nov. 7 until 9 p.m. if the Tuesday results are not to your satisfaction.


a) This is what conservatives actually believe.

or

b) It's ok when we do it.

or

c) 3/5 of a vote should be enough for anyone.

I dunno which canned liberal talking point I should use. I mean, even though they're all true, they're all so boring these days.
 
2012-09-10 11:08:59 AM  

BigBooper: Is this just the fact that Romney is such a loser, or are we seeing a shift in the country to left?

Yes, both are possible at once.


Considering that Congress is going to move right this election it is probably just that Romney is a loser.
 
2012-09-10 11:09:01 AM  

qorkfiend: Dr Dreidel: Your overconfidence is your weakness.

Your faith in your friends is yours.


Man trekkies annoy me.
 
2012-09-10 11:09:07 AM  
Since I'm disinclined to doubt Nate's numbers, I want to know where Congress is going.

IIRC the last forecast had the Senate likely to come up as a tie. Though since the GOP can control the Senate with 38 or 39 they pretty much have it locked up no matter what.

I haven't seen forecasts for the House though - anyone know how that's looking?
 
2012-09-10 11:10:11 AM  

mrshowrules: qorkfiend: Dr Dreidel: Your overconfidence is your weakness.

Your faith in your friends is yours.

Man trekkies annoy me.


It's a trap!
 
2012-09-10 11:10:11 AM  
You're seeing NC still light Mitt Romney at Nate Siver's. But really, it looks like NC is going back to Obama from the latest poll, which is damn awesome.
 
2012-09-10 11:10:50 AM  

DamnYankees: GAT_00: Texas will vote Democratic in a Presidential by 2020.

Maybe, but that doesn't help us much in figuring out Obama's 2012 electoral vote count.


This well help: ElectoralVote
 
2012-09-10 11:11:16 AM  

Dr Dreidel: Your overconfidence is your weakness.


Your faith in your derp is yours.
 
2012-09-10 11:11:39 AM  

Masso: But really, it looks like NC is going back to Obama from the latest poll, which is damn awesome.


It looks like NC is going to be very close.

North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama's up by a little and sometimes Romney's up by a little but it's never outside the margin of error.

Link
 
2012-09-10 11:11:46 AM  

sweetmelissa31: NowhereMon: I wonder if it's hard to get Sheldon Adelson to cough up $10 million on 1 in 5 odds? Oh wait, yeah Newt Gingrich...

I don't know why he doesn't just cut out the middle man and give his money directly to Israel.


Because that way, Israel only gets $10 million.

If your guys get elected, Israel receives about two or three billion dollars annually in US foreign aid.

Citation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations#U n ited_States_aid
 
2012-09-10 11:11:51 AM  

BigBooper: Is this just the fact that Romney is such a loser, or are we seeing a shift in the country to left?

Yes, both are possible at once.


The country isn't shifting at all, the GOP has just gone bazonkers.
 
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