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(The Daily Beast)   You call that a bounce? This is a bounce - Obama's approval ratings hits its highest number since 2009   (andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com) divider line 164
    More: Cool, approval ratings  
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6257 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Sep 2012 at 5:06 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-07 02:42:08 PM  
Let's see if it shows up in any electoral polling.
 
2012-09-07 02:48:47 PM  

DamnYankees: Let's see if it shows up in any electoral polling.


Nate Silver now has Obama at 313 electoral votes, up 10.6 points since 8/30.
 
2012-09-07 02:50:11 PM  

brigid_fitch: DamnYankees: Let's see if it shows up in any electoral polling.

Nate Silver now has Obama at 313 electoral votes, up 10.6 points since 8/30.


That's based on how Nov. 6 prediction though, not his Nowcast. The Nowcast is the prediction of what would happen if the election were held today. So the Nov. 6 cast is predicting that Obama will get a bump in the future - in order for that 313 to actually stay there, the bump has to happen, not merely be predicted to happen.
 
2012-09-07 02:53:16 PM  
But, subby, if Obama hit his highest number in 2009, how is that considered a bounce today?
 
2012-09-07 02:54:31 PM  

Greenville: But, subby, if Obama hit his highest number in 2009, how is that considered a bounce today?


Obama and his magical time machine strike again
 
2012-09-07 03:00:52 PM  
Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).
 
2012-09-07 03:01:39 PM  

Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).


Something something protest too much...
 
2012-09-07 03:05:49 PM  

Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).


You are a brave soul. Thank you for listening to that crap so the rest of us don't have to.
 
2012-09-07 03:07:15 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).

Something something protest too much...


Something something pudding?
 
2012-09-07 03:18:07 PM  
Except the poll was taken Sept 3-6, before his speech.
He should thank Bill & Michelle
 
2012-09-07 03:18:40 PM  

adiabat: Except the poll was taken Sept 3-6, before his speech.
He should thank Bill & Michelle


No one said it was a bounce from his speech specifically; the convention bounce is about the whole thing.
 
2012-09-07 03:36:04 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).

Something something protest too much...


Something something damage control mode....
 
2012-09-07 03:43:23 PM  
Meh. Bounces fade quickly. And it'll be back to 47-46 before long.
 
2012-09-07 03:43:49 PM  

DamnYankees: adiabat: Except the poll was taken Sept 3-6, before his speech.
He should thank Bill & Michelle

No one said it was a bounce from his speech specifically; the convention bounce is about the whole thing.


And the article explicitly thanks Clinton. He's a real genius with that comment.
 
2012-09-07 03:50:37 PM  
I'm at work, or I'd post the gif of Kary Perry bouncing in her Elmo shirt on SNL to demonstrate a real "bounce."
 
2012-09-07 03:59:48 PM  

Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).


How in the hell do you listen to Rush without it making your ears bleed?
 
2012-09-07 04:06:26 PM  
Wait, whut?

www.rasmussenreports.com
 
2012-09-07 04:08:15 PM  

RexTalionis: Meh. Bounces fade quickly. And it'll be back to 47-46 before long.


Bounces fade, but an actual bounce should translate into a 1 or 2 point semi-permanent bump that would carry through election day.
 
2012-09-07 04:08:59 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).

You are a brave soul. Thank you for listening to that crap so the rest of us don't have to.


Hear hear.

I think I'd last five minutes before I walked out, bought a gun, and shot my radio.

And my radio would thank me for putting it out of its misery.
 
2012-09-07 04:09:17 PM  

gilgigamesh: RexTalionis: Meh. Bounces fade quickly. And it'll be back to 47-46 before long.

Bounces fade, but an actual bounce should translate into a 1 or 2 point semi-permanent bump that would carry through election day.


538's numbers show pretty conclusively that all convention bounces completely go away after a month.
 
2012-09-07 04:09:37 PM  

AmStatic1: Wait, whut?

[www.rasmussenreports.com image 400x300]


Since that's a Rasmussen graph shouldn't it read "Time Since Usurpation of Power" next to the vertical axis?
 
2012-09-07 04:10:21 PM  
I bet if Romney had gotten a convention bump, it would have meant EVERYTHING!
 
2012-09-07 04:12:36 PM  
Romney's total bump was ~2 points, and early indicators seem to be showing a ~3 point bump for Obama mid-way through the convention. Not shabby, but I'll wait for the real numbers to come in on Monday.
 
2012-09-07 04:16:06 PM  

imontheinternet: Romney's total bump was ~2 points, and early indicators seem to be showing a ~3 point bump for Obama mid-way through the convention. Not shabby, but I'll wait for the real numbers to come in on Monday.


Misread the data. It's closer to a 5 point bump in approval ratings.
 
2012-09-07 04:20:02 PM  
this news makes my bub bubs bounce
 
2012-09-07 04:23:02 PM  

AmStatic1: Wait, whut?

[www.rasmussenreports.com image 400x300]


lol rasmussen. how adorable.
 
2012-09-07 05:11:20 PM  

WaltzingMathilda: this news makes my bub bubs bounce


Great job!!
 
2012-09-07 05:17:32 PM  

DamnYankees: gilgigamesh: RexTalionis: Meh. Bounces fade quickly. And it'll be back to 47-46 before long.

Bounces fade, but an actual bounce should translate into a 1 or 2 point semi-permanent bump that would carry through election day.

538's numbers show pretty conclusively that all convention bounces completely go away after a month.


538 was assuming a 4 point bounce for Obama and a 3 point bounce for Romney. If the bounce for Obama is greater will it still even out and if it does still even out, does it do so in the same timeframe?

I expect revised chart from 538 Monday or Tuesday once a few more polls done after the convention are out.
 
2012-09-07 05:18:55 PM  
I understand raiding the Big 12 for a Texas school to get some inroads there for recruiting but I don't think the SEC thought it through with the basket case that is A&M
 
2012-09-07 05:20:49 PM  

ddam: DamnYankees: gilgigamesh: RexTalionis: Meh. Bounces fade quickly. And it'll be back to 47-46 before long.

Bounces fade, but an actual bounce should translate into a 1 or 2 point semi-permanent bump that would carry through election day.

538's numbers show pretty conclusively that all convention bounces completely go away after a month.

538 was assuming a 4 point bounce for Obama and a 3 point bounce for Romney. If the bounce for Obama is greater will it still even out and if it does still even out, does it do so in the same timeframe?

I expect revised chart from 538 Monday or Tuesday once a few more polls done after the convention are out.


I think he explained this a few days ago, if Obama's bump goes above the 4 point bounce, it's assumed that he actually picked up one point, or if it's less he actually lost points during the conventions. It's only the "historic bump" that is assumed to fade out.
 
2012-09-07 05:21:25 PM  

Peter von Nostrand: I understand raiding the Big 12 for a Texas school to get some inroads there for recruiting but I don't think the SEC thought it through with the basket case that is A&M


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand I fail. Wrong thread
 
2012-09-07 05:23:16 PM  

Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).


Thank you for listening to Rush. I used to listen during my lunch. I used to sit in my car and scream at the radio. I finally figured that it wasn't worth it. I tried to listen so that I could get an understanding of how conservatives think. I just couldn't stand it. Rush never convinced me of anything except that some people will fall for anything.
 
2012-09-07 05:28:12 PM  
oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).
 
2012-09-07 05:31:27 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).


you mean it could be 55? that'd be really high.

the point being movement is still movement.
 
2012-09-07 05:33:10 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).


I am soooo looking FORWARD to the next two months.
And you are one of the reasons why :)
 
2012-09-07 05:33:17 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).


And the polls done before this don't have that margin of error? If they do, then we're comparing apples to apples.

/how do you like them apples?
 
2012-09-07 05:33:18 PM  

Peter von Nostrand: I understand raiding the Big 12 for a Texas school to get some inroads there for recruiting but I don't think the SEC thought it through with the basket case that is A&M


No, because you see...
Wait - which one of us is lost?
 
2012-09-07 05:33:18 PM  

ManateeGag: I'm at work, or I'd post the gif of Kary Perry bouncing in her Elmo shirt on SNL to demonstrate a real "bounce."


I like Alison Brie more

i.imgur.com
 
2012-09-07 05:33:35 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).


Even factoring in the margin of error, his approval rating is still higher than his disapproval rating.
 
2012-09-07 05:34:22 PM  
Nate at 538 had previously said it takes a couple of days for the data to come out regarding any convention bounce. So anything we are seeing now is premature. At least according to 538. Additionally Nate stated that anything less than a 4 point bounce for Mitt was a bullish sign. He broke down exactly why as he always does. Mitt got a 1 point bounce.

Convention bounces fade. But Mitt is running out of opportunities to make up ground. Assuming Obama's bounce is larger than -1 point then Mitt and the GOP only have the debates left to move in front of Obama. Recall how Mitt did in the primary debates? He was routinely schooled by Santorum. Obama is a better debater than Santorum is.

At this point Mitt has to hope for a colossal Obama screw up or that the hundreds of millions the GOPs super PACs have can move the polls. Both are unlikely.

/man crush on Nate Silver
 
2012-09-07 05:34:48 PM  

thenewmissus: I tried to listen so that I could get an understanding of how conservatives think.


There's your problem. Conservatives justify, lie, prate, condemn, mislead, etc,etc, but they don't think.
Just look at their nominees. However, that does prove that they obey.
 
2012-09-07 05:34:48 PM  
test.
 
2012-09-07 05:35:56 PM  

Mrtraveler01: tenpoundsofcheese: oh look, another person who doesn't understand what margin of error is. (3 points).

Even factoring in the margin of error, his approval rating is still higher than his disapproval rating.


well yeah, but you can't go around spouting FACTS at people! I mean just who do you think you are!?
 
2012-09-07 05:36:51 PM  
You know, I hate to be the one to address the elephant in the room, but given the dates of the polling and whatnot, it's entirely possible this is the convention bump we're seeing...the RNC convention bump.
 
2012-09-07 05:37:00 PM  

imontheinternet: imontheinternet: Romney's total bump was ~2 points, and early indicators seem to be showing a ~3 point bump for Obama mid-way through the convention. Not shabby, but I'll wait for the real numbers to come in on Monday.

Misread the data. It's closer to a 5 point bump in approval ratings.


No, it's closer to a 15 point bump. It's a 3-day rolling average, so in just one day it must have shifted a hell of a lot to make a 5 point bump in just one day's worth of polling.

The numbers for Obama are going to be insane on Monday. Dunno how much will last, though.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-09-07 05:39:07 PM  

DamnYankees: Let's see if it shows up in any electoral polling.


It already is. GOP support is more geographically concentrated than Democratic, so a tied popular vote means that Obama is ahead. Romney may get 90% in Alabama, but that means that 40% of the vote is "wasted".
 
2012-09-07 05:39:14 PM  

Tax Boy: ManateeGag: I'm at work, or I'd post the gif of Kary Perry bouncing in her Elmo shirt on SNL to demonstrate a real "bounce."

I like Alison Brie more

[i.imgur.com image 250x299]


I'll be in my bunk.
 
2012-09-07 05:39:57 PM  

that bosnian sniper: You know, I hate to be the one to address the elephant in the room, but given the dates of the polling and whatnot, it's entirely possible this is the convention bump we're seeing...the RNC convention bump.


gallery.zzq.org
 
2012-09-07 05:40:33 PM  

Weaver95: Republicans are *screaming* that Obama didn't get any sort of post-convention bounce. Limbaugh ranted about it for about an hour today (well...the hour i listened to him anyways).


I'd lay cash this time on Monday, the line from the right wing will be conventions and convention bumps don't matter.
 
2012-09-07 05:40:44 PM  
DEAD CAT BOUNCE! I can't believe people think this is meaningful... It is just the undecideds flowing in like the tide. What this show's is the Romney has stability unlike this jive fad you farkers seem to be enamored with.
 
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